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Category: Tech Stocks

The Crucial Difference Between Roku and Netflix

Posted on January 26, 2021June 30, 2026 by io-fund
The Crucial Difference Between Roku and Netflix

Netflix came in strong with the recent earnings and there is no reason to expect Roku will not also come in strong especially as Covid and stay-at-home orders have accelerated the shift towards Connected TV.

It's easy to compare Roku's roughly 50 million users to Netflix's 200 million and to assume Roku is a much smaller company or lagging the subscription behemoths, such as Disney Plus. This is a mistake as the ad-based video-on-demand (AVOD) market is a newer market than subscription-video on demand (SVOD). The AVOD market is distinguished from SVOD because it's primary driver is pay-TV ad dollars rather than the cord-cutting trend or subscribers.

About $10 billion is spent on Connected TV ads compared to $70 billion on pay television ads in the United States alone. Pay-TV ad spend is now expected to decline by 15% to $60 billion this year due to the postponement of live sports and also due to an increase in cord-cutting from covid.

Here's something to consider – cord-cutters aren't going back to cable, and this places Pay TV ad budgets in a dilemma. These budgets have not cared much for mobile or desktop. Despite the sheer number of data scientists and (frightening) level of behavioral targeting used by Google and Facebook, Pay TV has held on to an impressive level of ad spend at about $70 billion in 2019 compared to $87 billion on mobile. One reason is that advertising on the television is more effective – no amount of data collection can change the video completion rate achieved when you're sitting in your living room.

Although these budgets have not migrated to mobile or desktop in the past, those advertisers now have an opportunity to use data to personalize the advertising while viewers are in their living rooms. Roku and AVOD are the best of both worlds – combining data for targeting and high completion and viewability rates — and this creates a unique market from SVOD. For reference, completion rates on Connected TV ads are as high as 97% with 100% viewability, according to a study by Benchmark.

Below, I review Netflix's earnings as it's essential to keep an eye on exactly how long a winner can run in the OTT media category. I also review Roku's upcoming earnings and what to look for.

Review of Netflix Earnings:

Netflix surpassed expectations again in Q4 despite many believing the increase in Disney Plus subscribers and HBO Max would weigh on Netflix's subscriber results.

To be fair, the real test is yet to come as dining out, travel, and return-to-work patterns begin to normalize. Netflix is guiding conservatively for Q1 with 6 million net additions.

Revenue grew 21% YoY to $6.6B, topping consensus estimates by $20M. Net adds of 8.5M came in well ahead of expectations calling for 6M. Netflix now expects 2021 free-cash-flow to be “around break-even” versus previous guidance of -$1B. The company also intends to explore a share repurchase program moving forward:

“Combined with our $8.2B cash balance and our $750M undrawn credit facility, we believe we no longer have a need to raise external financing for our day-to-day operations…As we generate excess cash, we intend to maintain $10B-15B in gross debt and will explore returning cash to shareholders through ongoing stock buybacks, as we did in the past (2007-2011)."

Competition has been one of Wall Street's primary concerns regarding Netflix. In Q4, Netflix maintained a healthy lead over the competition with 29% market share. In Q4 2019, Netflix had 31% share of the streaming market. Keep in mind, the market is growing overall so a smaller percentage can still represent subscriber and revenue growth.

NIELSEN, CREDIT SUISSE

NIELSEN, CREDIT SUISSE

Despite the modest decline in the share of minutes watched, it is evident that competition did not bite into Netflix’s net adds in 2020.

Source: Netflix Shareholder Letter

Source: Netflix Shareholder Letter

This supports the thesis that other streaming services, namely Disney+, are complementary to Netflix. Netflix just completed its best year in history while Disney+ and other new streaming services became available. Consumer behavior is showing that consumers prefer to have multiple subscription services. 

In Q4, Netflix had 57.2M global app downloads versus 53.5M for Disney+. In Q4 '18 and '19, Netflix had 53M and 58M global app downloads, respectively. These numbers indicate that the success of Disney+ is not coming at the expense of Netflix. Instead, Disney+ is a complimentary service helping to further the acceleration of streaming to the TV.

Streaming to the TV gained significant market share versus all other TV usage during the pandemic.

NIELSEN

NIELSEN

Streaming to the TV now owns over a 20% share of the market. The increased demand for streaming during lockdowns represents the acceleration of a trend that was already in progress.  

Although I do not own Netflix stock, I track the company closely as I’m invested in other opportunities in this space. I’ve remained bullish on this stock when others doubted its position as new competitors came on the market.

I have also written extensively about why Roku is one of the best ways to play AVOD market growth. Our first entry in ROKU came in the $30 range in 2018, and we remain bullish on the name moving forward. You can read my first article covering Roku in 2018 here.

An investment in Roku does not force investors to choose which streaming service will be #1, as Roku benefits from the success of a broad range of AVOD publishers. Advertisers are planning out strategies to reach cord-cutters effectively, and Roku stands to be a main beneficiary. Roku is positioned to capitalize on AVOD market growth and has now launched an omnichannel marketing platform to extend first-party data for mobile and desktop targeting. This last part is key because Roku can now capitalize not only the $10 billion currently spent on CTV ads and the soon-to-migrate $70 billion from Pay TV – but Roku will offer additional targeting on mobile and desktop with first-party data – opening up the entire $200 billion+ ad market.

For Q3, Roku reported 73% year-over-year revenue to $452 million. Platform revenue increased 78% YoY, and gross profit was up 81% YoY.

In the past, investors have been critical of Roku for dipping sub-60% on margins. I defended the company, stating margins are rarely an issue for an ad-tech company. Roku added 2.9 million incremental accounts with average revenue per user (ARPU) up 20% to $27.00.

Roku is guiding low for a quarter when most people were stuck at home. In general, this management guides low, stays focused, and is out of the limelight. Q4 guidance is for revenue growth in the mid-40% range with a breakdown of platform revenue at 2/3. My guess is Roku will handsomely beat this guidance.

In December, AT&T announced that customers could watch HBO Max on Roku. Part of our early analysis on Roku pointed towards agnosticism working in Roku's favor and the strength of the operating system and number of channels. This was a timely boon as HBO Max had become the fastest-growing major streaming service recently per data from Apptopia with 1984 Wonder Woman being released on Christmas Day.

Source: Apptopia

Conclusion:

Over a year later, my statement on why no streaming company will be able to dethrone Netflix in October of 2019 remains true. Disney Plus and HBO Max are great services, as well, but they are not mutually exclusive.

Regarding Roku, we believe first-party data for connected TV ads is a significant trend moving into 2021 and an important distinction from subscription-video on demand (SVOD). Therefore, the main takeaway is that AVOD has an approximate ten-year runway as the trend began taking shape when Roku launched its ad platform in late 2018/early 2019. There were AVOD players in the space before this, but the budgets were negligible. Therefore, the cord-cutting trend is secondary for Roku, whereas Pay TV ad budgets' migration is the primary trend.

There are other reasons that I like Roku, such as owning the whole stack including the operating system, the management, it’s global opportunity, the agnosticism, etcetera– which I have covered in previous analysis. However, I try to keep things simple when discussing my thesis, and the migration of Pay TV ad budgets combined with Roku’s first-party data is why this stock has its best years ahead.

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Podcast: My favorite picks for 2021, Zoom Video, and IPOs/SPACs

Posted on January 13, 2021June 30, 2026 by io-fund
Podcast: My favorite picks for 2021, Zoom Video, and IPOs/SPACs

Earlier this month, I joined Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm on “This Week in Startups.” We discussed the current state of the IPO market, Zoom’s pricing power, top stock picks for 2021, and some of the most anticipated IPOs of 2021. 

The conversation begins with a discussion about the IPO market and some of the recent froth we have seen. The recent offerings of DoorDash, Airbnb, and C3.ai demonstrate how much demand and hype we are currently seeing for new issues. We discuss if this is sustainable and if future companies are better off going public via a direct listing.

Later, we talk about valuations and different accounting methods companies sometimes use to enhance their numbers. The discussion shifts to Slack’s acquisition and some key differences that allowed Zoom to have more success. I talk about Zoom’s pricing power and why I believe it will continue to thrive in a post-pandemic world.

We wrap up the interview by talking about our top stock picks for 2021 and what IPOs we are most looking forward to next year. My answers include a stock in connected TV space and a fast-growing AI company set to debut in the first half of 2021.

Although I do discuss Luminar, I’ve since cooled off from the company following the announcement that Mobileye is making their own LiDAR sensors.

You can access my full interview on “This Week in Startups” below:

Access the interview here:

   

Interview timestamps:

0:55 – Introduction

3:30 – Thoughts on Airbnb (ABNB) and DoorDash (DASH) IPOs and valuations

4:20 – Thoughts on Luminar (LAZR) and C3.ai (AI)  

7:25 – Discussion about direct listings vs IPOs

10:30 – What multiples do you consider attractive vs unattractive?

15:00 – Discussion about Non-GAAP metrics and “creative accounting” methods companies use

18:00 – Thoughts on Snowflake (SNOW) and adjusting growth for the age of the company

20:20 – Discussion about the Slack (WORK) acquisition

28:45 – What do you think about Zoom Video (ZM) and DoorDash (DASH) post-pandemic?

41:00 – Discussion about Zoom’s pricing power

49:00 – Top stock picks for 2021

58:40 – Discussion about C3.ai (AI)

1:00:15 – Thoughts on SPACs

1:06:00 – Most anticipated IPOs of 2021

1:11:00 – Risk of investing in China-based companies

Posted in Market Trends, Podcasts, Tech Podcast, Tech StocksLeave a Comment on Podcast: My favorite picks for 2021, Zoom Video, and IPOs/SPACs

My Early Bitcoin Bull Analysis

Posted on January 7, 2021June 30, 2026 by io-fund
My Early Bitcoin Bull Analysis

I first recommended Bitcoin to my free newsletter readers in June of 2019. Although I was already a proponent of Bitcoin (enough even to attend conferences), I knew it was time to bring the Bitcoin thesis to my readers in the public markets. I was hesitant because it was bold at the time to cover Bitcoin fundamentally for stock investors.

In August of 2019, my technical analyst – Knox Ridley — urged me to release a full-length PDF on the premium site with my target market caps so he could start guiding entries. He was adamant we needed to start guiding entry points because his technicals showed a solid long-term outlook.

In celebration of Bitcoin’s rally, we are releasing the premium PDF below and all other research. We are also going to start publicly releasing entries for Bitcoin (see below).

Here’s why you should read the PDF: we are coming up on the first target market cap listed in the report and we have a few market cap targets to go. I’m not saying target price because my analysis, in this case, was tied to market cap. Bitcoin’s price only seems exhorbitant but when tied to market cap — less so. You will find these market caps in the report from August of 2019.

Knox has guided eight entries into Bitcoin on our premium site since we covered the asset 18 months ago. His last entry published only a month ago is already up 86%. His first entry is up 393%. This is invaluable because it always feels like Bitcoin is too high (or too scary!) and yet it finds its legs and rallies again.

Knox is going to start releasing Bitcoin entries and exits for free on his Twitter account. For one, you’ll see how incredibly good he is, especially at Bitcoin because he has been tracking it daily for about two years. Secondly, you’ll be able to gauge the undulations of the crypto market and perhaps feel more confident by following whether Knox plans to enter again or not.

This is the value proposition we offer. After we pick the stocks and enter them, we do not leave people to fend for themselves. We continually find new entries at higher prices with our own money so people can gain confidence in entering tech growth stocks at higher levels (when warranted). How many Bitcoin bulls help you find new entries after they’ve secured low entry points? That’s exactly what Knox does. 

Please note — my free newsletter subscribers have gotten Bitcoin coverage since June of 2019 since it was priced at $11,146 or +244%. Our lowest entry on the premium site is at $7563 or +393% and our most recent entry was only a month ago and is up 86%. Even if you missed the coverage in 2019 – I covered it again in June 2020 for my free newsletter subscribers with “Why I’m Stacking Satoshis” when bitcoin was priced at $9304 or up +313% – You can see that despite sideways and even downward movement, I remained bullish and vocalized this.

My goal is to make sure you know that I try to bring really solid opportunities to my free newsletter readers as a tech analyst. My ideas are never recycled — and most of the time — I’m early to a fault.

The point being, I look forward to doing more of the same for you in 2021. Thanks for all of your support this year – I truly appreciate your readership.

I hope you enjoy the weekend!

Follow Knox on Twitter here

Bitcoin: Full-Length Premium PDF Analysis

This PDF will help guide entry and predicts that 2020 will be an important year, and thus to establish a bitcoin position in 2019. Below is background information on why the newly-launched Lightning Network is key to bitcoin’s success – something that has not been widely discussed. We also cover the halving of bitcoin to occur in 2020 (and how this affects price), and the potential market cap for bitcoin to help put our price target in perspective.

Sample Technical Analysis from August 13th by Knox Ridley

A more detailed report on bitcoin will follow in the coming weeks. In summary, we see BTC trading to $60,000 plus in the coming years. The fundamental thesis supports the price action on this move, and we will publish this for you in mid-September. The question is – will we have a major retrace before this move, or will we breakout from here, leaving these levels behind?

Bitcoin 3-Part Series

1. Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment? Part 1: Institutional Adoption

The largest bitcoin conference in the world took place last month in San Francisco with many early pioneers discussing why bitcoin has made a good investment for them and why bitcoin investments will do well long-term. You can view highlights from the Bitcoin conference here.

2. Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment? Phase 2: Economic Uncertainty

In the previous analysis, we discussed one primary reason that bitcoin will make a good long-term investment, as the price is likely to go up and stabilize once institutions gain SEC-regulated access. Fidelity and the NYSE-founded Bakkt are two examples of platforms that will influence the first phase of bitcoin’s broader adoption. These two platforms have not yet launched, but a new supply-and-demand dynamic will occur when institutional investors can access cryptocurrencies.

3. Is Bitcoin a Good Investment? Phase 3: Bitcoin Mobile Payments

Institutional adoption of bitcoin and economic uncertainty are two phases previously discussed in this series that evaluates if bitcoin will make a good investment. Finding the right entry price is critical for a buy and hold strategy as there is unusual volatility in this asset. Trading bitcoin may be successful for some; however, this series predicts that holding bitcoin until the technology matures is the better option – all of which is dependent on the right entry price for this volatile, yet high-potential asset

Why I’m Stacking Satoshis

Last July, I began covering bitcoin. The premise was based on three phases for widespread adoption: institutional adoption, global economic uncertainty, and mobile payments. With Square’s cash app reporting fifty percent of its payments being made in bitcoin, or $178 million, it’s time to revisit why bitcoin is a transformative technology that is often misunderstood. Square’s report was for the period between October 1st and December 31st, which represented an increase of 50 percent over the prior two quarters.

Highlights from 2019 Bitcoin Conference

Last week, the world’s largest bitcoin conference took place in San Francisco. Despite bitcoin holding a $200 billion market cap in Q2 2019, cryptocurrency conferences receive less press than tech conferences from companies with comparable market caps, such as Oracle World, Dream Force or even Oktane, a conference by a company with a fraction of the market cap that receives ample press coverage.

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Podcast with Motley Fool: Big Tech Plus the 1 Stock I’d Buy Right Now

Posted on December 16, 2020June 30, 2026 by io-fund
Podcast with Motley Fool: Big Tech Plus the 1 Stock I’d Buy Right Now

I had the privilege of joining Tim Beyers and Brian Feroldi on The Motley Fool podcast earlier this month.  In the hour-long interview, we cover topics such as big tech, my research process, tech valuations, and we also cover a number of individual stocks including Twilio, Bandwidth, Zoom, Facebook, and Palantir.

The discussion starts off with big tech and why I believe Google Cloud Platform has missed an opportunity to catch up to Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services on cloud IaaS. With that said, all three players are aggressively pursuing edge computing and how to combine the compute and storage from hypescalers with the low latency and speed offered by 5G connectivity. This is primarily being accomplished through partnerships between the hyperscalers and telecoms which are best described as “frenemies.”

Later in the interview, we dive into my research process and how I go about finding the top tech stocks.  One example of a trend that I think the market is misunderstanding is telehealth. The market is pricing the opportunity as a covid tailwind rather than pricing and evaluating the opportunity for early innings – especially as AI will merge with telehealth in the near future.

We also chat about what’s on everyone’s mind – which is whether tech valuations are in a bubble right now. I give some guidelines on what I consider to be attractive valuations versus unattractive valuations in the tech space and I break this down by annual revenue growth rates. 

Towards the end of the interview, they ask what is the one stock I’d buy right now and the one stock I’d sell right now. My answers include a lesser-known stock in the OTT advertising space that I am bullish on.

You can access my full interview with the Motley Fool podcast below

Access the interview here:

Interview timestamps:

0:00 – Introduction

4:40 – Discussion on Big Tech

7:40 – Does Google (GOOGL) need Google Cloud Platform to work out for the company to do well?

13:40 – Opinion on Fastly (FSLY)

19:20 – What is your process on researching stocks?

22:40 – Is it time to start talking about Salesforce (CRM) as a big tech company?

23:00 – Discussion about Twilio (TWLO)

28:00 – Thoughts on Bandwidth (BAND)

30:00 – How much potential does Twilio (TWLO) have?

35:00 – Is tech in a bubble right now?

37:00 – Guidelines on valuations for tech stocks

38:45 – What do you consider high growth, medium growth, and low growth?

39:30 – Discussion about Zoom (ZM) and its long-term outlook post-COVID

42:30 – What does product-market fit mean?

45:45 – 1 stock to buy and 1 stock to sell

49:50 – Top public stock pick in telehealth

50:55 – What private tech investors do you like to follow?

52:20 – Current state of hybrid cloud versus multi-cloud and the future of hybrid cloud

53:20 – Discussion about Datadog (DDOG) and the partnership with Microsoft Azure

56:40 – Thoughts on Palantir (PLTR)

Posted in Market Trends, Podcasts, Tech Podcast, Tech StocksLeave a Comment on Podcast with Motley Fool: Big Tech Plus the 1 Stock I’d Buy Right Now

Tech Growth Earnings Review for Q3 2020 – Part 3

Posted on December 14, 2020June 30, 2026 by io-fund
Tech Growth Earnings Review for Q3 2020 – Part 3

In the 3rd part of my Q3 earnings analysis, I review reports from Zoom Video, Okta, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, ZScaler and Elastic.

Zoom Video

Zoom Video provided a nearly flawless earnings report for the first full quarter that followed initial work-from-home orders. The blend of Zoom Video having virality across consumers from its freemium model combined with enterprise is the company’s strength strategically as the competitors do not have the virality component. In Q3, customers with more than 10 employees represented 62% of revenue with net dollar expansion rate of 130%. Globally, Zoom exhibits strong growth, as well, with revenue from APAC and EMEA growing 629% year-over-year.

However, gross margins were a weakness in the report at 68.2% compared to 82.9% last year and 72.3% last quarter. The company is providing the service for free to many users including K-12 schools during the pandemic. From my perspective, the temporary margin hit in exchange for virality and establishing consumer behavior is a good trade-off.

Okta

According to most standards, Okta’s earnings report was solid and resulted in an uptick in the stock price. However, the growth has been flat for most of this year.

Revenue rose 42% to $217.4 million ahead of estimates for $202.7 million. Bookings (remaining performance obligations) are growing faster than revenue at 53% to $1.58 billion. Calculated billings were up 44% year-over-year. This was a re-acceleration of calculated billings from the previous quarters in FY2021 where the pandemic weighed on budgets.

The company is profitable on an adjusted basis with EPS of $0.04 and free cash flow of $41.6 million, up from $9 million a year ago. Highlights include a growing number of customers in the financial services sector and government.

Snowflake

Snowflake grew 119% year-over-year to $159.6 million with remaining performance obligations of $927.9 million, or 240% year-over-year growth. Product revenue grew 115% year-over-year. The net revenue retention rate of 162% is impressive although other companies have exceeded this in their 6th year (Snowflake was founded in 2012 but was in stealth mode until 2014 when it began to work with customers).

Gross margins are between 58% to 63%, which it’s normal for a cloud company to be lower than a SaaS company on margins. However, operating margins were negative (30%) with FCF margins of negative (23%). Probably the biggest issue that Snowflake faces are the sales and marketing costs. In the previous two quarters, they were near or exceeded total revenue and in this quarter they were about 90% of revenue at $134 million compared to the $159 million in revenue.

CrowdStrike

CrowdStrike beat consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines and raised Q4 guidance. Revenue grew 86% YoY, representing an 8% beat above Wall Street estimates. Subscription revenue increased 87% YoY while annual recurring revenue advanced 81% compared to a year ago. The company also achieved its most impressive quarter ever in terms of profitability, earning $0.08 per share on the bottom line. This was CrowdStrike’s third consecutive quarter of positive EPS and its highest total yet. Free-cash-flow margin increased to 33% and gross margin improved to 76%.

In the quarter, CrowdStrike added 1,186 net new subscription customers, representing growth of 85% YoY. CrowdStrike also continues to drive new module adoption in existing customers, as 44% of the company’s subscription customers have adopted five or more modules versus 39% in the previous quarter.

Zscaler

ZScaler announced Fiscal Q1 2021 results that easily cleared analysts’ expectations. Revenue growth accelerated to 52% YoY, which represents the company’s third consecutive quarter of growth acceleration.

Adjusted billings growth increased 64% YoY, far surpassing the consensus expectation calling for 39% growth. This beat was driven in part by a record quarter of seven-figure deals. The company’s net retention rate of 122% advanced from 120% last quarter and 119% the quarter before. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.14 was 8 cents better than expectations while the company also announced an impressive 30% FCF margin. Non-GAAP operating margin of 14% far exceeds the consensus of 2.9%.

Elastic

Elastic announced strong FQ2 earnings on 12/2. Total revenue increased 43% YoY, representing an 11% beat above consensus. Total billings grew 42% YoY while SaaS revenue increased 81% versus the same period a year ago. The company’s losses also improved significantly, with non-GAAP EPS of -$0.03 coming in 17 cents better than expected. Non-GAAP operating loss improved to -$1.9 million, representing a -1% operating margin versus -10% projected. Gross margins also came in better than expected with 77% versus a consensus of 75%. FCF margin was -13% for the quarter.

Subscription revenue totaled 93% of Elastic’s total revenue in the quarter, with 45% of total revenue coming from outside the US. Management views this geographical distribution as a strength in the company’s business model. Elastic’s net retention rate ticked down several points from last quarter but still remained modestly above 130%. Elastic now has a total of 12,900 subscription customers with 650 of those (5%) having annual contract values exceeding $100K.

Read the Full Article at Forbes

Posted in Broad Market Today, Earning Updates, Tech StocksLeave a Comment on Tech Growth Earnings Review for Q3 2020 – Part 3

Q3 2020 Earnings: Datadog, Roku, Square, The Trade Desk and JFrog

Posted on November 18, 2020June 30, 2026 by io-fund
Q3 2020 Earnings: Datadog, Roku, Square, The Trade Desk and JFrog

This article was originally published on Forbes on Nov 12, 2020,09:01pm ESTForbes on Nov 12, 2020,09:01pm EST

Roku

Roku reported Q3 earnings on November 5th. The 73% year-over-year revenue growth the company announced was 23% above consensus expectations. Gross profit rose 81% YoY while gross margin rose 216 basis points in total to 47.6%. 

Roku added 2.9M active accounts in the quarter (+43% YoY). Total streaming hours increased by 0.2 billion hours over the last quarter to 14.8B (+54% YoY), while ARPU grew 20% YoY to $27.

Roku was a beneficiary of the rebound in ad spend, as the company saw Q3 monetized video ad impressions grow 90% YoY vs. 50% YoY growth last quarter. Roku is anticipating that Q4 revenue growth will likely be in the mid-40% range, similar to the growth rate seen in the last few holiday seasons. Per the earnings call, the company is being cautious about holiday spending with this forecasted guidance. 

ROKU shares briefly hit all-time highs immediately following the announcement of these results.

Brands like DraftKings are shifting budgets especially as TV sports have been canceled and delayed. Roku also pointed towards CPG brands as a large driver for ad revenue in the current quarter.

We have got brands like DraftKings, for example, who is a big sports spender, had to shift budgets out of TV as sports were canceled and delayed. Has moved a significant portion of their budget into OTT.

In the earnings call, management felt confident the migration from linear TV would be a long-lasting trend after COVID.

We are not going back to the way it was to be clear. I mean, I think, COVID did — COVID triggered a lasting durable change in how CMOs and marketers are thinking about their TV ad spend. In Q3, we saw a 17% drop in linear viewing, Roku was up 54%, 92% of Roku cord-cutters are very satisfied with their decision to cut the cord and aren't planning to go back.

So I really think this is a one-way transfer function. We don’t go back to the older spending patterns, because the audience isn’t there, marketers need to follow the audience into OTT. And they stay, they stay because of the enhanced capabilities.

Roku also tackled the question of Wal-Mart and Comcast partnering. The CEO reiterated that Roku is the #1 TV operating system and software operating system in the United States and now Canada with a world-class team of software engineers. He also emphasized that Walmart is a large partner with Roku and has carried many Roku OEMs: 

In terms of Walmart, I will just say a few words. I mean, Walmart is a big retailer, a very strong partner of Roku’s. We have a great relationship with them. They sell millions of Roku players a year. They sell millions of Roku TVs for various Roku OEMs, including TCL, Hisense, RCA, Philips, JVC.

We build — we help them build on branded, which is their house brand, Roku TVs, smart TVs, and that’s a business that’s been growing extremely well for them. So, it’s a great partnership and it’s a long-standing partnership, and we have put a lot of work into making sure that it stays strong.

Square

Square announced blowout Q3 results with huge beats on both the top and bottom lines. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.34 beat consensus expectations by $0.18. The company saw revenue grow 140% YoY to $3.03B, beating the consensus estimate by $950M or 46%. 

Gross payment volume of $31.7B was 6% above expectations. In total, Square saw gross profit rise 59% YoY, while Cash App gross profit soared 212% YoY. 

In the quarter, the number of average daily transacting Cash App customers nearly doubled from the same period last year. Square did not provide guidance for Q4, but noted in its shareholder letter that the trends they observed in Q3 remained strong through October.

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Square’s Seller Ecosystem revenue grew 5% YoY as regions began to reopen. More impressive was the growth of Square’s Cash App Ecosystem, which saw an increase of 23% in daily active users and 574% YoY growth in revenue. 

Bitcoin revenue for Square grew 11x last year’s total, but even excluding Bitcoin transactions, Square grew Cash App revenue 174% YoY this quarter. This is an acceleration from the 140% Cash App growth (excluding bitcoin revenue) Square recorded last quarter, and 98% growth previous to that. 

Square is focused on expanding Cash App’s utility beyond peer-to-peer payments, CEO Jack Dorsey remarked in the company’s shareholder letter: “We remain focused on increasing daily utility for our Cash App customers to products beyond peer-to-peer payments, which helps drive higher engagement and monetization.” 

Square’s investments into increasing Cash App engagement continue to pay off as the company’s Cash App Ecosystem displayed an acceleration in growth across the board this quarter. 

Chart: Cash App shows an acceleration in growth across the board this quarter

BETH.TECHNOLOGY

Jack Dorsey noted that Square is positioned to benefit in both segments moving forward:

“We continue to believe that our Seller and Cash App ecosystems are well-positioned to benefit from the acceleration of secular shifts, such as omnichannel commerce, contactless payments, and digital wallets for consumers.” 

The company did not give Q4 guidance due to uncertainties yet did discuss what they have seen so far through Q4. Square's Seller Ecosystem saw a modest acceleration from Q3 in October:

“Seller GPV was up 8% year over year, which improved modestly compared to year-over-year results in the third quarter.” 

Cash App has seen a modest decrease in transaction volume in October, which management attributes to the end of government stimulus programs and unemployment benefits:

“Gross profit growth in October moderated compared to the third quarter, driven by a decrease in transaction volume per active customer. We believe this was partly a result of the end of government stimulus programs and unemployment benefits at the end of July, as stored funds in Cash App have decreased since July.”.

The Trade Desk

The Trade Desk announced Q3 results that easily cleared analysts’ expectations. Revenue grew 32% YoY, beating consensus estimates by 19%. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.27 was a big beat on the consensus bottom-line expectation of $0.45. The company noted that it saw Connected TV grow over 100%, Mobile video spend grow 70% and Audio spend grow 70%. 

Management issued an upbeat outlook for Q4, expecting $289M in revenue at the midpoint vs. expectations of $255.1M. At the midpoint of this estimate, The Trade Desk is expecting roughly 34% YoY revenue growth in Q4. TTD shares traded over $700 for the first time immediately following the announcement of these results. 

Most impressive from TTD’s report was exceeding 100% YoY growth in their Connected TV segment. CEO Jeff Green remarked in the company’s press release that COVID has accelerated advertising innovation across the board:

"So far in 2020, we've seen several years of advertising disruption and innovation compressed into a few months. As a result, advertisers have become more deliberate and data-driven with every advertising dollar." 

In the Q3 earnings call, Green talked more about how companies are adapting data-driven measurement strategies for justifying marketing budgets:

“We recently surveyed more than 200 top advertisers, around 85% of them said they are under new pressure from CFOs to justify marketing spend and to measure against business goals.” 

Despite The Trade Desk’s beat, the company did not report the numbers that Snap or Pinterest did (32% growth versus 50-60% growth). TTD’s stock is trading at a valuation that has been historically very hard to sustain in ad-tech.

Rarely, does ad-tech trade over 20 forward price-to-sales even during high-growth periods. Not only is The Trade Desk well exceeding the mean but is trading roughly 200% higher than peers even though Roku, Pinterest and Snap had a better current quarter and are forecasting stronger forward guidance. 

Charts: The Trade Desk stock trading 2x more expensive than ad-tech peers

The Trade Desk stock trading 2x more expensive than ad-tech peers that reported much higher revenue growth. – YCHARTS

TTD’s forward PE Ratios (not pictured) is also outsized at 168 compared to Facebook’s 30 forward PE Ratio. Facebook’s PE Ratio has never exceeded 119 even during its high-growth quarters of 100%+ growth and/or with low EPS (law of large numbers). 

Facebook’s current P/S has also never exceeded 20 even during its high-growth quarters. 

This is despite The Trade Desk facing headwinds with Apple’s changes to IDFA. Apple extended the iOS update from September to an undetermined time “early next year.”

BETH KINDIG Tweet about Apple's iOS change

On September 3rd, Apple delays IDFA changes until early next year – @BETH_KINDIG

Although the risks are hard to quantify right now, most advertising experts are in agreement this will affect the entire mobile ad industry on iOS. Facebook has stated they would shut down Audience Network as most ad exchanges need some kind of identifier for targeting and attribution. Here is a great write-up from mobile analyst Eric Seufert on how this could affect ad prices. 

The Trade Desk has stated only 10% of its inventory uses the IDFA but has made no clarifications on how it will run mobile attribution and measurement without an identifier, whether that’s Apple’s or their own. There are efforts from a collective federation of ad companies to use encrypted emails, although there is no guarantee would Apple would allow this on iOS and Safari even if the ad industry agrees to pursue this method. ATS requires users to authenticate which is another unproven factor in the work flow.

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Overall, the risk is an unknown and we will get real answers it looks like “early next year.” For The Trade Desk, it’s a risk investors need to be aware of.  Notably, publisher segments can help augment targeting but this will come from the supply-side.

Datadog announced strong Q3 results and an upside outlook that cleared analyst expectations. The company grew revenue 61% YoY to $155M, representing a 7% beat above consensus estimates.  

The company grew customer count by 38% in the quarter versus consensus expectations of 32% and added 92 new customers with over $100K ARR (+52% YoY), slightly above the consensus estimate of 90. 

Datadog

In Q3, Datadog recorded its 13th consecutive quarter with a dollar-based net retention rate exceeding 130%. Operating margin improved to 9% in the quarter versus expectations of 0.6%, while gross margin improved 3% to 79%.  

Q4 guidance was issued for $163M in revenue at the midpoint (+43% YoY) which was 5% above the consensus outlook. Datadog shares initially sold off as much as 14% on these results, but the stock pared its losses to close trade on Wednesday. The stock rebounded Thursday and is now up over 11% off Wednesday’s lows.  

In its Q3 earnings call, Datadog’s CEO Olivier Pomel commented on the recovery in usage trends the company observed after a weak Q2. “Throughout the quarter, usage growth of existing customers was robust which was a return to more normalized levels after slower usage expansion in Q2…the pace of usage growth in Q3 was broadly in line with pre-COVID historical levels.”  

After a period of cloud spend conservation among Datadog’s enterprise customers in Q2, the company added a record amount of ARR in the quarter. The company managed to do so profitably, as operating income, cash flow and FCF all came in above expectations. 

Notably, Datadog’s CAC payback period decreased to ~12 months from ~18 months sequentially despite adding over 400 more customers in Q3 versus Q2.  

The ~12 month payback period recorded in Q3 is more in line with pre-COVID levels, as last quarter is looking more like an outlier given the aforementioned headwinds the company faced in Q2.

Datadog’s platform has proven to be easily adaptable and sticky for enterprise customers migrating to the cloud, as evidenced by the increasing number of existing customers using more Datadog products. CEO Olivier Pomel remarked on this in the company’s earnings call when he said: “our platform strategy continues to resonate and win in the market. As of the end of Q3, 71% of customers are using two or more products, which is up from 50% last year. Approximately 20% of customers are using four or more products which is up from only 7% a year ago.”  

CEO Olivier Pomel also commented on the partnerships Datadog announced in Q3 with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform, noting that the flow of revenue from these partnerships will not be immediate: “there's not going to be an immediate impact, but we see that as being potentially meaningful contribution in the mid to long-term.” 

The partnerships with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform that Datadog announced in the quarter, along with the existing alliance with Amazon Web Services, validates the company’s leadership in cloud-native-observability and establishes its collaborative relationship with the world’s top public hyperscalers. Over the long term, Datadog expects that these partnerships will become meaningful sources of revenue growth.  

Looking ahead to Q4, Datadog is confident the rebound in usage trends the company observed in Q3 will continue.  CFO, David Obstler alluded to this expectation in the conference call: “Throughout the quarter, we saw usage growth that was more in line with pre-pandemic historical levels. The trend was broad-based and sustained throughout the quarter. This provides us with confidence that what we experienced in Q2 was a transitory optimization effort that were related to the challenging macro environment.”  

With the normalization of customer usage trends and secular tailwinds related to digital transformation and cloud migration, management continues to believe that Datadog is very well positioned to capture a “large and growing long-term market opportunity.” 

JFrog

JFrog announced earnings for Q3 in its first quarter as a public company. The company grew revenue 40% YoY, beating consensus expectations by 3%. JFrog also announced Non-GAAP EPS of $0.05, beating expectations by 5 cents. 

Gross margins came in at an impressive 83% while FCF margin improved to 25% in Q3. For Q4, JFrog expects $41.4M in revenue at the midpoint vs. consensus of $40.52M. The stock has initially sold off up to 10% on the results, as the 40% revenue growth represents a deceleration from the 46% growth recorded last quarter. Even after today's sell-off, FROG still trades at approximately 30x 2021 revenue, which remains among the highest valuations in the software industry.

Here is what the Analysts ratings for the recent string of IPOs and where JFrog ranks:

Graphs: New IPO Analyst Ratings

 Here is what the Analysts ratings for the recent string of IPOs and where JFrog ranks – BETH.TECHNOLOGY

When factoring in how fast some software names are growing, we see that JFrog still remains relatively expensive. With the deceleration, it’s likely we see an adjustment to JFrog’s valuation over the next quarter.

Growth Adjusted EV/2021 Revenue Chart

Growth Adjusted EV/2021 Revenue – BETH.TECHNOLOGY

We will be covering earnings again next week so consider giving us a follow.

Disclosure: Beth Kindig owns shares of Roku and Datadog, may purchase shares of Square in the near future and and she has owned shares of The Trade Desk and may again in the future. The information contained herein is not financial advice.

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Q3 2020: Tech Growth Earnings Review – Pinterest, Snap, Microsoft And More

Posted on November 4, 2020June 30, 2026 by io-fund
Q3 2020: Tech Growth Earnings Review – Pinterest, Snap, Microsoft And More

This article was originally published on Forbes on Oct 29, 2020,11:49pm EDT

Before breaking out the earnings reports from the high-growth universe, here are the results from Big Tech earnings today. Each company beat on both the top and bottom lines. Other than Alphabet, they are all trading down after-hours following these results as the market digests the magnitude of the beats, and in Apple's case, the lack of guidance.

Results of Big Tech earnings

BETH.TECHNOLOGY

Snap:

Snap reported Q3 results on October 20th, beating both the top and bottom lines. The ongoing recovery of advertising budgets helped to boost Snap's revenue growth to 52% YoY in Q3, which now sits just below the 58% pre-COVID growth rate the company recorded during Q1.  

Notably, the reacceleration that Snapchat reported is the highest Q3 growth rates since 2017. According to management, some of the user growth highlights from this quarter include Lens Studio, which saw creative applications to use AR as a way to try-on products from brands including Sally Hansen for nail polish and Champs for sneakers.

Other product features released contributing to this quarter's beat include Brand Profiles, Minis, Places on the Map, Dynamic Ads, Bidded AR Lenses, Dynamic Lenses, Camera Kit, Snap ML Lenses including the Anime Lense.

The company also attributes the growth to linear TV and sports being featured on the social media platform at a time when content is seeing a surge.

Here is what the company said about Dynamic Ads and AR Ads on the earnings call:

For example, last quarter we launched Dynamic Ads globally, which combine product catalogs with our optimization capabilities to reward advertisers who invest in our platform with ROI at scale, and we are already seeing strong adoption rates from Retail, CPG, Restaurant, and Gaming verticals, among others.

While Dynamic Ads recommend items to Snapchatters based on their interests, AR try-on takes this a step further and allows Snapchatters to visualize the item in real life. For example, Clearly, an eyewear retailer, leveraged our sponsored AR Lenses to enable our community to try on different pairs of glasses, which resulted in 33 seconds of average playtime and a 5.3% share rate. Clearly was able to drive a full-funnel impact for their brand, achieving a 7-point lift in brand awareness and a 5-point lift in brand consideration while also driving a 46% lift in unique page viewers on their site and a 3.3% lift in purchases.

Daily active users rose 18% to 249M, topping the consensus of 243M. For user base demographics, Snapchat reaches over 90% of Gen Z and 75% of Gen Z and Millennials in the United States, the UK and France. This is one reason the company believes its augmented reality platform is seeing early success with brands as this demographic is more likely to engage with AR advertisements. Snapchat also has a gaming platform with new releases every quarter.

The majority of Snap’s growth came from the Rest of World category, at 43% growth. North America grew 7% and Europe by 10%. Meanwhile, North America and Europe carried the majority of the revenue growth at 56% year-over-year and 49% year-over-year, respectively.

Snap also recorded its most successful quarter ever in terms of monetizing its user base with a global ARPU of $2.73, coming in well ahead of the $2.23 consensus estimate. 

Even though the company did not offer guidance for Q4 due to COVID uncertainties, SNAP stock surged over 20% following the results. Kids being schooled virtually, especially college-aged, is likely contributing to the company’s record Q3 usage and monetization.

Pinterest:

Pinterest rose with Snap following Q3 results as investors anticipated a similar recovery in ad spend for the social media company. The company delivered outstanding Q3 results that easily cleared consensus expectations. 

Total revenue rose 58% YoY in Q3 with 49% growth in the US and 145% growth internationally. Monthly active users jumped 37% overall to 442M and ARPU rose 15% (US +31% and international +66%) to $1.03.

Perhaps most impressive was management’s 60% YoY growth guidance for Q4:

Additionally, we expect our business to maintain its momentum in Q4, with revenue growing around 60% year-over-year.

And then finally, this brand safety concept, especially post-July and the boycotts that we saw, I would imagine that we're seeing a sustained benefit just due to the election season. But I think it's a secular trend where advertisers want to be around positivity as they build their brands, and that that's contributing to our growth as well. That's what we're hearing.

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Management did state there is a level of uncertainty with this guidance due to Covid and tailwinds the company saw from being “brand safe” during the election (i.e. attracting ad spend typically given to Facebook). 

Here is what the company said when asked if the beat came from factors inherent to the product or due to the macro conditions of ad spend being thin in Q2.

Yes, I mean, Ross, it's really hard to parse. I mean, I would love to be able to disaggregate that and say, we're getting X amounts from the technology investments we've made. We're getting Y amounts on demand returning from a macro perspective, or insights give us a certain amount and the brand safety equates to the remainder, in reality, it's the combination of all the above. Ads are working. I think we went through this a little bit on Brian's question, but making it easier for especially medium-sized advertisers to on-board and automate spending their budgets effectively against their desired online conversion and sales objectives has been a big driver for us …. [some parts omitted here for brevity]

So it's a mix of product and technology, macro recovery, the insights that we're able to deliver, and the brand safety and positivity that Pinterest uniquely brings and the world of social media.

Twilio:

Twilio pre-announced Q3 revenue would come in ahead of previously issued guidance from the company of $401 million to $406 million, with analyst consensus at $404M. Expectations were already high going into the earnings report and Twilio went on to beat revenue estimates by 10% for revenue of $448 million and growth of 52% year-over-year. This was the largest beat by dollar in Twilio’s history, as referenced by analyst Khozema on the earnings call.

Twilio also handily beat on earnings at $0.04 EPS compared to analyst consensus of -$0.03 EPS.

For Q4, Twilio expects revenue of $450M-$455M (37% YoY growth) vs. consensus of $432.1M. The net retention rate came in at 137% for TWLO in Q3. The guidance the company provided for earnings next quarter did not match expectations with an operating loss ranging between $10 to $15 million.

Twilio is on an expansion streak fueled by acquisitions. The company completed the acquisition of SendGrid in early 2019, launched the Flex platform, and has now acquired Segment to “enable developers and companies to unify customer data from every touchpoint.” The guidance provided does not include Segment which is expected to close in the current quarter and will modestly impact the top and bottom line.

On the earnings call, the company highlighted the importance of health care with Twilio’s products:

In healthcare, the innovative solutions that have been built on top of Twilio to address the COVID-19 crisis, provide an opportunity for the industry to advance the use of technology to better deliver outcomes for patients and create tools that fit seamlessly within a physician's workflow. This has always been the vision, but the coronavirus crisis highlighted the urgency, immediacy, and magnitude of that need.

Most importantly, CEO Jeff Lawson and the management does not see these trends slowing down with a vaccine or return-to-normal and specifically addressed this:

The other thing I would just point out, though, is that some of the acceleration that we've seen, for example, in healthcare and education, e-commerce, but we also think that those use cases are going to be pretty resilient. I don't think they're going to be ephemeral at all. In fact, I think we see a lot more opportunity in some of those industries. And so I think that's going to provide ongoing tailwind over the medium-term as well.

You can access the Investors Day presentation here where the company guided for 30% growth over the next 4 years.

Shopify:

Shopify announced outstanding Q3 results, with revenue growth of 96% year-over-year and Gross Merchandise Volume growth of 109%. The revenue number came in 18% above consensus estimates while GMV was 13% above forecasts.

The company announced subscription revenue grew 48% during the quarter, merchant revenue rose 132%, and monthly recurring revenue grew 47%. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.13 came in well ahead of estimates calling for $0.50, and operating margin increased to 17.6% vs. an 8.7% consensus. This compares to an adjusted loss of $0.29 EPS.

strong & competitive market position

EMARKETER

Shopify gave away a 90-day free trial with this cohort transitioning from a free trial to paid merchants in Q3, which had a “double cohort effect” on merchant revenue growth of 132%. The company does not expect the Q4 demand for subscriptions on a year-over-year MRR growth rate to match Q3. This note was addressed by Amy Shapero, CFO, in the earnings call:

So, I want to just highlight that we did have a record quarter in Q3 for merchant growth due to the double cohort effect that I talked about in my opening remarks. But I think it's really important to emphasize that even excluding the 90-day free trial as who converted in Q3, we still would have seen an acceleration in our merchant growth over pre-COVID levels, which tells you that more merchants are coming to the platform with this shift to online commerce and COVID.

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The free trial was addressed again here as to how the key metrics compare to the 14-day trial with lower conversions but higher retention:

So, the new store creations in Q2 were the new stores coming on the platform associated with the 90-day free trial. So, we were not able to count them as merchants in Q2. We saw many of them convert to paying merchants in Q3. The conversion rates that we've seen on the 90-day free trials is slightly lower than cohorts historically on 14 day free trials, but we think that's okay, because they're more intentional when they convert because they've had a longer time period. The data that we have in the three months in some of the earliest 90-day free trial cohorts and converted suggests that those merchants that have a higher retention than 14-day free trial. As we know, many of them coming online in Q2 were established businesses looking for a multi-channel platform. And so we believe that those 90-day free trials will be more sticky than the 14-day free trials cohorts historically.The conversion rates that we've seen on the 90-day free trials is slightly lower than cohorts historically on 14 day free trials, but we think that's okay, because they're more intentional when they convert because they've had a longer time period. The data that we have in the three months in some of the earliest 90-day free trial cohorts and converted suggests that those merchants that have a higher retention than 14-day free trial. As we know, many of them coming online in Q2 were established businesses looking for a multi-channel platform. And so we believe that those 90-day free trials will be more sticky than the 14-day free trials cohorts historically.

Notably, Shopify incredible B2B brand power with philanthropic efforts to support Black entrepreneurship with $130 million dedicated to supporting businesses with diverse ownership. The company also launched a Tiktok channel that allows merchants to market their products using TikTok for Business. The collaboration allows for in-feed video ads to expand their paid and organic reach.

You can view Shopify’s earnings presentation here.

Microsoft:

Microsoft announced FQ1 2021 results on October 27th, outperforming on headline metrics led by strong Commercial Cloud and Azure growth. EPS of $1.82 came in ahead of estimates of $1.54 EPS while 12.4% YoY revenue growth represents a 4% beat above consensus.

Intelligent Cloud revenue of $12.99B was well ahead of the $12.73B consensus, while the 48% YoY growth in Azure was better than the expected 44% growth. Management issued a somewhat tepid outlook for FQ2, expecting weaker Consumer PC growth and intelligent cloud revenue in line with forecasts, along with stronger Processes and Business Productivity revenue.

The reason for the lower-than-expected guidance is due to softer business demand that will cut into Windows licensing revenue. We also saw commercial PCs crater 22% after support for Windows 7 ended and the coronavirus pandemic forced more people to work from home.

However, these are not the segments that would cause an investor to choose Microsoft as a portfolio holding. For the most part, the bull thesis centers around Azure and the line of horizontal products under the Azure infrastructure and PaaS umbrella: Azure Arc, Azure Synapse, Azure SQL Edge, Azure Machine Learning, Azure Space and Microsoft Cloud for Healthcare. Azure saw a slight acceleration of 1% this quarter. Gross margins on Commercial Cloud are an impressive 71% when including an accounting change on server equipment from two to four years.

Notably, when asked about the effects a decline in on-premise and transactional revenue could have on Microsoft, CEO Satya Nadella answered that the strategy for Microsoft is distributed computing with the public cloud and edge (and presumably these will make up for any decline seen from transitioning on-premise).

One is, the approach we have always taken is that distributed computing will remain distributed. So, the cloud and the edge is what will be the distributor fabric for applications. So, if you look at where our growth is coming from for the all-up number in Intelligent Cloud, it's coming from the infrastructure layer, the flexibility that we have around hybrid deployment, things like Azure Arc, a very differentiated. The same thing with data, that's one of the big future innovations, even in the last quarter was the ability to deploy, for example, Azure data in any cloud, including the edge.

The more interesting note came at the end of the earnings call by Brent Bracelin of Piper Sandler, who pointed out Azure had grown to 17% of revenue — larger than Windows – and up from 45% just three years ago, according to his model.

I wanted to follow up on Azure. This is a segment that’s grown now to 17% of revenue. I think, that’s up from 4% just three years ago. You talked about the number of petabyte-scale applications doubling. And from a size standpoint, it looks like in my model, Azure is bigger than the Windows business for the first time ever. My question really is around where are we at in the journey around Azure? How important is this to the Microsoft model? And ultimately, how big could it be looking out over the next three to five years?

This provided an important glimpse into Azure’s ongoing importance and the evolution of Microsoft.

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Momentum is on CrowdStrike’s Side: Will it Last?

Posted on October 14, 2020June 30, 2026 by io-fund
Momentum is on CrowdStrike’s Side: Will it Last?

A periodic transaction report filed on September 3rd revealed Nancy Pelosi and her husband Paul Pelosi purchased 5,000 shares of CrowdStrike for a total investment of roughly $650k.  It’s easy to speculate why the Speaker of The House would be purchasing shares of a cybersecurity company that has a history of working with the Democratic National Convention and FBI.  CrowdStrike was instrumental in alleging Russia interfered in the 2016 election, an allegation that led to a multi-year investigation. 

The timing of this purchase, just weeks before the 2020 election, makes one contemplate her reasoning. Perhaps the Speaker of The House believes CrowdStrike will once again be instrumental in maintaining the integrity of the 2020 election results. Perhaps she believes CrowdStrike is positioned to win a large government contract. Perhaps she believes cybersecurity will become a bigger priority in the future in the government and commercial sectors.  Or perhaps we are overthinking this, and the Speaker of The House had nothing to do with this and her husband is simply bullish on the company’s fundamentals and technicals. 

In any case, seeing the Speaker of The House purchase 5,000 shares of CrowdStrike adds confidence to my conviction in the stock.

Nancy Pelosi has not been the only one to make a large investment in CrowdStrike recently. In fact, CrowdStrike saw institutional ownership increase 15% in Q2 from Q1.  The stock has become a favorite of hedge funds and tech/growth focused funds, which further adds to my confidence that the company has a bright future ahead of it.    

Below, I discuss this bright future in regards to security leading budgets and current initiatives.  I also dissect areas of strength in the previous earnings report and why I expect this strength to continue in the future. 

Cybersecurity: More Prevalent Than Ever

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the importance of cybersecurity, with 3 out of 4 business leaders seeing cybersecurity as a top priority in COVID recovery.  The speed and size of change to a remote workforce has uncovered some gaps in the cybersecurity of many organizations.  Data shows that business leaders are aware of these gaps and cybersecurity spending is expected to increase to address them.

Through the end of July, CrowdStrike observed an increase in eCrime activity up over 330% since the start of the year versus in 2019. In its Q2 earnings call, CrowdStrike’s CEO claimed that in the first-half of 2020, the company saw a 154% increase in distinct and sophisticated intrusions and stopped 41,000 potential breaches, which is more than all of last year combined. 

This survey from Credit Suisse shows Security Software is the top priority among business leaders surveyed.  The 10- percentage point increase from January to July indicates that business leaders are prioritizing security software more than ever in the age of COVID and remote work.

Morgan Stanley recently held a survey on key initiatives in 2020 and found that cybersecurity is the top priority among business leaders.  95% of the leaders surveyed agreed cybersecurity is a priority, with 38% expecting to engage a service provider.  These numbers indicate that cybersecurity is the #1 priority for business leaders and that the industry is expected to see more engagement than any other. 

CrowdStrike: Product Overview

CrowdStrike was founded with the goal of reinventing security for the cloud era.  CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform delivers comprehensive breach protection against today’s most sophisticated attacks on the endpoint, where the most valuable corporate data resides. 

The company offers 11 cloud modules on its Falcon platform via a subscription-based model that covers numerous security markets, including endpoint security, security & IT operations (including vulnerability management), and threat intelligence. 

CrowdStrike’s AI based security model is focused on collecting large amounts of data, centrally storing it in a single model, and continuously training its algorithms with vast amounts of data.  The more data that the Falcon Platform collects, the more intelligent the platform becomes in detecting and stopping breaches. 

CrowdStrike: Opportunity

With cybersecurity spending expected to increase at a 10% CAGR over the next 3 years, CrowdStrike is in an ideal position to continue its momentum.  Endpoint security is expected to be the 2nd biggest priority among security spending. 

Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research

Endpoint security is a critical element of a multilayered security strategy, as endpoints are frequently the first point of entry for attackers.  Specific to endpoint security software, CrowdStrike’s market share has nearly doubled over the last year. The company has been identified as the fastest growing endpoint security software vendor by IDC Worldwide. 

In a recent survey conducted by Morgan Stanley, CrowdStrike is shown to be the top endpoint protection vendor among the business leaders surveyed.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

CrowdStrike’s Falcon is armed to fight sophisticated threats and stop breaches through a combination of malware prevention, enterprise detection and response (EDR), and threat hunting.  Specific to enterprise detection and response, CrowdStrike has been named 1 of 3 leaders by Forrester research and 1 of 5 by Gartner.

Financials:

CrowdStrike reported excellent Q2 results on September 2nd, comfortably beating revenue estimates with an 84% YoY growth rate. Subscription revenue grew 89% YoY, ARR grew 87%, and the company now boasts a total of 7,230 subscription customers (+91% YoY), 57% of which have greater than 4+ modules. 

CrowdStrike has exhibited consistent growth in the number of its customers using 4+ module subscriptions, indicating that existing customers are happy with the platform and continue to spend more to add additional protection.

Source: CrowdStrike Investor Presentation

The company now has 49 of the Fortune 100 companies as customers. Moreover, CrowdStrike took a significant step towards profitability in Q2 with its first quarter of positive operating margin (4%).  The company also generated positive free cash flow for the quarter at an impressive 16% FCF margin.  This was CrowdStrike’s second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EPS, and the company is expecting to breakeven for the full year with a $0.05 EPS estimate at the midpoint of their FY21 guidance. 

Management raised revenue guidance for Q3 and FY21, calling for 71% YoY growth in Q3 at the midpoint.  This outlook bakes in logical conservatism and represents a fairly easy target for CrowdStrike to beat.

CrowdStrike has a history of outperforming estimates, averaging an 8% revenue beat over consensus in the last 4 quarters.  In its 6 quarters of public history, CrowdStrike has never missed on revenue or EPS estimates. 

Looking ahead to Q3, consensus estimates are calling for 71% YoY growth, exactly in line with the outlook management gave after Q2. CrowdStrike’s history of outperformance will likely continue as the company has posted consistent growth rate percentages of 89-89-85-84 in its last 4 quarters. 

Risks:

The biggest risk for CrowdStrike is related to the intense competition they face within the cybersecurity industry.  The market for security and IT operations solutions is intensely competitive and characterized by rapid changes in technology, customer requirements, and by frequent launches of new or improved products to combat security threats. 

CrowdStrike remains the fastest growing endpoint security platform, but if they are unable to react to new competitive changes, they will see a decline in growth and lose market share.  The company must continue to adapt in a highly dynamic industry to sustain its growth levels. 

Competitive pricing pressure could end up damaging CrowdStrike’s profit margins and forcing the company to lower its prices to compete. 

Many of the company’s competitors, including Microsoft and VMware, have deep pockets and the threat of a price war remains one of the biggest risks to CrowdStrike.  Microsoft is a $1.7T company with the assets and resources to challenge CrowdStrike’s margins in the future. 

Relative to its total addressable market, CrowdStrike appears pricey.  The company is valued at a market cap of $31.3B.  The most recent estimate of CrowdStrike’s TAM comes from its S-1, where management estimated a total global opportunity of $29.2B in 2021.  However, its fair to assume CrowdStrike’s TAM has grown significantly since that report was released in June of 2019.  In that report, management estimated that the global market for endpoint security would reach $8.7B in 2021, but more recent data shows the endpoint security market will be worth $18.4B in 2024. 

Conclusion:

CrowdStrike is ideally positioned to continue its strong momentum as the company continues to benefit from increased security spending.  Within the realm of increased security spending, endpoint protection has been revealed as the 2nd biggest priority among business leaders, where CrowdStrike is the fastest growing vendor.  Nancy Pelosi’s vote of confidence bodes well for the company as we head in to the 2020 election, where CrowdStrike may again play a crucial role.  I believe CrowdStrike will grow faster than expectations over the next few quarters as the company achieves FY profitability for the first time in its history.      

DISCLOSURE: I am Long CRWD call options expiring June, 2021

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Momentum List: September 2020

Posted on September 24, 2020June 30, 2026 by io-fund
Momentum List: September 2020

By David Marlin

This is the inaugural momentum list report written by David Marlin. We will release this report on a monthly basis.

Process Overview:

Identifying stocks that have superior momentum is a proven way to outperform the market. The key is evaluating which stocks show the fundamental and technical trends to sustain the type of momentum that will outperform the broader market.

In this report, I use a combination of fundamental, technical, and industry analysis to determine the top momentum stocks in the tech space. Please note, we’ve included one featured stock in this report: Sea Limited.

For evaluating the strength of a stock’s performance, I use a few time frames: YTD performance, performance from key market lows (in our case, the March lows), and short-term momentum.

For short term, I often look at stocks on a quarterly basis as it is very common to see a stock post big gains after earnings and continue that momentum for the rest of the quarter.  With the current sell off in the market, I am also closely looking at how stocks have performed during the market decline as technical strength is best revealed during pullbacks. 

On a technical basis, I like to use a few moving averages to help determine trends – the 8ema & 21ema for short terms trends, the 50 MA for medium term, and the 200 MA for long term.  In the current market environment, many previous leaders are now trading under their 50-day moving averages.  This is a key indicator that there has been a momentum change in these stocks and their previous uptrend has slowed considerably. Many stock trading legends, including William O’Neil, recommend avoiding stocks trading under their 50-day MA’s all together.         

The strongest stocks tend to be in the strongest industries. Identifying growing and evolving industries is a key to finding big gainers.  Companies with large addressable markets that are ideally positioned to capitalize on emerging trends are the focus of this list.  

High growth stocks obviously trade at a premium valuation, so this is not the most important factor in the creation of this list.  However, valuation cannot not be ignored, even for high growth stocks.  For this list, I analyzed historical valuations and valuation in comparison to peers.     

The criteria in the creation and maintenance of this portfolio moving forward is outlined below. Note that I only focus on stocks in the tech space with large addressable markets and market caps exceeding $3B. 

Momentum List Criteria:

  1. Financial Performance & Momentum
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  2. Technical Strength & Momentum
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  3. Industry Analysis
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  4. Valuation
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David’s Top Stocks List:

The top momentum stocks list is listed in order of highest to lowest revenue growth last quarter:

1. Sea Limited (SE)

Rev Growth: 102%
YTD Return: 271%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 39%
EV/Fwd Rev: 13.9x

Summary: Sea Limited is one of the top growth stocks to own based off its strong growth and leadership position in a rapidly growing market that remains underpenetrated.  See the attached PDF for the full report on Sea Limited.    

2. CrowdStrike Inc (CRWD)

Rev Growth: 84%
YTD Return: 158%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 36%
EV/Fwd Rev: 33.7x

Summary: CrowdStrike continues to prove it is a secular winner in the cybersecurity industry, displacing the existing participants and gaining significant market share.  The fundamental performance in Q2 confirms this company is a best-in-class business worth owning as security software continues to be the top priority for organizations around the world.        

3. Fiverr International (FVRR)

Rev Growth: 82%
YTD Return: 426%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 37%
EV/Fwd Rev: 23.8x

Summary: Fiverr has seen a surge in consumer demand related to COVID, and the company has now seen 4 consecutive quarter of accelerating YoY revenue growth.  I believe Fiverr is ideally positioned to become a sustained beneficiary of the digital transformation long after the economy reopens and see a tremendous runway for growth ahead of them.  At a roughly $4B valuation, Fiverr is in the early innings of its lifecycle, as management estimates that its TAM is north of $100B. 

4. Square Inc (SQ)

Rev Growth: 64%
YTD Return: 133%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 22%
EV/Fwd Rev: 8.7x

Summary: Square has built a platform around digital payments and commerce, positioning itself to benefit from the transition to a cashless society.  Square is ideally situated for sustained growth with the ongoing shift towards digital payments, both on the B2C and P2P side with its Seller and Cash App ecosystems.     

5. Fastly Inc (FSLY)

Rev Growth: 62%
YTD Return: 311%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 33%
EV/Fwd Rev: 28.0x

Summary: Fastly has proven itself as a disruptive and innovative company focused on creating cutting-edge technology for developers and DevOps teams.  Fastly is one of the main beneficiaries of the digital transformation, as the subsequent increased internet usage in its clientele has led to accelerating revenue growth and net retention rates for the company. 

6. MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)

Rev Growth: 61%
YTD Return: 71%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 32%
EV/Fwd Rev: 13.6x

Summary: MercadoLibre is the leader in the Latin American e-commerce market, and is poised to continue to benefit from the increasing shift to online shopping in those underdeveloped nations.  The company received a massive boost from COVID across all its businesses, including tremendous growth in MercadoPago, the company’s digital payments segment.  MercadoLibre has a long runway for growth ahead of it as the top e-commerce and fintech company in a developing region.

7. Pinterest Inc (PINS)

Rev Growth: 4%
YTD Return: 96%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 33%
EV/Fwd Rev: 13.9x

Summary: Pinterest stock soared after its Q2 earnings report, as management predicted a return to +30% YoY growth levels.  Pinterest has a golden opportunity to accelerate its growth by increasing monetization per-user, particularly internationally.  As advertisers around the globe gradually ramp up their spending again, Pinterest is positioned to be one of the main beneficiaries.

8. Tesla Inc (TSLA)

Rev Growth: -5%
YTD Return: 406%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 42%
EV/Fwd Rev: 13.4x

Summary: A list of the top momentum stocks would not be complete without Tesla.  Tesla is a company with massive potential for growth ahead of it as it attempts to revolutionize the future of the transportation industry.  The top auto companies in the world are all chasing Tesla to catch up to its EV leadership status and the company continues to widen its lead with its proprietary innovation.       

9. Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)

Rev Growth: -77%
YTD Return: 186%
Proj 1yr Fwd Rev Growth: 39%
EV/Fwd Rev: 3.3x

Summary: Penn Gaming has a tremendous opportunity to become a dominant player in the rapidly growing sports betting industry.  Newly acquired Barstool Sports will be the main driver of this growth, as the company’s social media following allows Penn to digitally reach millions of potential customers.  In its launch last Friday (9/18), the Barstool Sportsbook app was the most downloaded sports app in the US, even as the app is only available for use in 1 state (PA).  I expect Penn will continue to leverage the Barstool brand to acquire a dominant position in the industry, making it significantly undervalued in comparison to its peers.      

Outside Looking In: ETSY, NET, ZS, SNAP

We are starting out with 9 stocks to include in this portfolio, a number that may change based off conviction and new opportunities.  There will be a new tab for monitoring the Momentum Portfolio next to the Active Portfolio moving forward.       

I will be covering the list of the top momentum stocks in depth and releasing an updated report each month.  Businesses and industries are always changing and new opportunities emerge — my goal is to identify them and bring these to your attention.

The portfolio may change at any time due to a change in fundamentals, technical strength, new opportunities for inclusion on the list, etc.  In the coming weeks, I will be releasing in depth reports on each stock included in the momentum portfolio. 

Knox and I will also be working together to provide entries/exits in the names included. Please find me on the forum for any questions or comments on this report.

Posted in Portfolio, Tech Stocks, Trends ReportLeave a Comment on Momentum List: September 2020

IPO Round Up

Posted on September 16, 2020June 30, 2026 by io-fund
IPO Round Up

IPO Report card:

As of late, the underlying goal of IPOs appears to be how to get retailers to pay as much as possible until the lock-up expires. It doesn’t matter if Berkshire invests unless you get a chance to buy at the same price. Your shares could lose 50% and Berkshire would break even. That’s not a public offering by any stretch of the word. Please keep in mind, that many winners in tech retrace well below their opening price (up to 50% below opening price in the case of Crowdstrike).

Prior to Snowflake raising its opening price (for the fourth time), I had cautioned that: “the biggest risk of all is how much alpha will be left in the first year of trading by the time retailers are offered the crumbs.” When I wrote that, I did not imagine we’d see the opening price of $245. It was, in a word, astounding.

Like Warren Buffet says, the best part of investing is you don’t have to hit every ball. On that note, I can confidently say Berkshire would not be hitting the ball at 98X NTM revenue – but they sure hope you do.

Snowflake went public with an IPO price of $120. It opened at a 105% premium of $245, and closed on its first day of trading just under $254. Based on its opening price, this gave the stock a valuation of 98x NTM revenue if generously calculating 121% growth across all four quarters.

Keep in mind, in the chart below, companies over 40x NTM revenue are profitable.

Regarding their business, Snowflake reported 121% revenue growth YoY with a net retention rate of 158%. As stated, the company is not profitable. In the six months ending in July, they spent roughly $190.5 million on marketing while making $149 million in gross profit.

I discussed Snowflake’s product strength in detail in my previous analysis, stating it demonstrated: “triple-digit growth, clear product differentiation, key metrics that prove product-market fit and gravity-defying management.” However, the price of the stock has become untethered from reality. As stated in the Forbes article, there is little alpha left over the next year and that is the primary risk.

JFrog

JFrog opened trading at a $71.20, which is 62% above its offering price. This gave the stock a valuation of 40x NTM revenue, which was the highest forward multiple in enterprise software at time of IPO until SNOW started trading about an hour later. The company provides DevOps software to organizations globally, enabling those businesses to build and release software faster and more securely.

JFROG posted an impressive 50% growth rate in its latest quarter with 81% gross margins and  positive 11% FCF margin, which is why they commanded such a high premium. However, the company faces a bevy of competition including Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services, and Microsoft Azure.  JFROG is a pure play, which I tend to favor; however, this IPO valuation is over its skis.

Sumo Logic

Sumo Logic began trading September 17th with an initial offering price of $22 a share. The first trade was 21% above the premium at $26.50 and closed at $26.88. Regarding key metrics, Sumo Logic stated that its dollar-based net retention rate has fluctuated between approximately 120% and 135% for each of the past nine quarters, which is notable. Their forward price/sales based on their opening price gives the stock a valuation of 8.3x NTM revenue.

Sumo Logic’s biggest risk is their competition. Companies such as Splunk, Elastic, Datadog, Dynatrace, Microsoft and Google all have bigger budgets, greater name recognition and a larger customer base.

Amwell

Amwell (AMWL) is a mobile and teleheath platform that connects patients with doctors over video. The stock went public on September 17th with an IPO price of $18. It began trading with 42% premium at $25.51, and closed the day at $23.95.

Amwell’s YoY revenue growth accelerated from 31% year-over-year in 2019 to 77% year-over-year in H1 2020. Based on their opening price, this gave the stock a valuation of 8.4x NTM revenue.  

Unity

Unity (U) is set to open trading September 18th at an expected price range of $44-$48. This would value the company in the range of $11.6B-$12.6B. At the high end of the proposed range, Unity would trade at 14.2x NTM revenue. 

Unity grew revenue 39% YoY in the first half of 2020 and increased its net-retention rate to 142%, a strong indication of increased spending within its existing customer base.  With 93 of the top 100 gaming studios already Unity customers, it is crucial for the company to continue to drive higher spending among existing customers. 

Here’s how the string of tech IPOs stack up this week:

Posted in Broad Market Today, Market Updates, Tech StocksLeave a Comment on IPO Round Up

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