To improve accuracy and lock-in more gains, Research Services combines fundamental analysis and technical analysis on tech stocks.
The market broke through the 21-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, which is a psychological shift for the rally we’ve been experiencing. 2940 is an important number. If we close below 2940, which is may happen based on today’s actions, we should see 2900 rather quickly.
We are still in the probability of extremes. According to the methodologies I use, the market could go to as low as 2100-2300, which would be a reversion to the mean, or it can take us to the 3700-4200 region, and possibly higher, for one final bull push. I believe the bull market that began in 2009 has one final push left, and will do one of the three:
- Most likely scenario is we retreat to 2600 before the last push towards 3700-4200
- Lower probability: see SPX visit 2100-2300 and then resume the rally to 3700-4200
- Lower probability: we go directly to 3700-4200 from here with normal corrections along the way.
Technicals Summary:
More comments on these stocks are located in the forum. It’s important that you follow the forum if you are interested in a specific stock.forum. It’s important that you follow the forum if you are interested in a specific stock.
Snap: If we break $16.20 we will likely retest $14. Snap has been strong at the $17 support. I closed out my calls after earnings and am staying long in my other position for now. If we break the $16.20, I’ll sell half my long position and maintain a 35% trailing stop on the remainder. I usually do not like to time my entire position twice (selling and buying again) if my plan is to buy again. However, with the market behaving the way it is this week, coupled with other metrics I follow, I want to lock in gains. A wide trailing stop is a good idea and buying Snap on a market pullback is also a good idea.
Google: We still can see Google as low as $900 or as high as $1300 – follow me on the forum for updates. We think the privacy and anti-trust creates a lot of risk in this stock.
Apple: Apple is behaving weaker than the earnings beat calls for and this is likely due to the smartphone saturated outlined in the fundamental blog we sent prior to earnings. Apple is testing the $200 support as we speak.
MongoDB: MDB is tightly trading at the $141 region we highlighted. It is currently trading just below this support as we had predicted in the MongoDB PDF analysis, and if we close below, I expect further weakness before initiating a position.
Bitcoin: We see an entry opportunity in the $4200-$7800 range. Fundamentals to follow in the coming weeks.
My Background:
I’ve been trading on Beth’s fundamental analysis for about two years. I’ve made over 300% on Roku from the IPO by keeping some of my position in the stock during the pullback based on her analysis, plus another 200% by initiating a new Roku position and buying the dip in Q4 2018. I did not sell my position even when it lost 50% of its value bc of Beth’s high conviction.
I also made decent money on Microsoft during the Q4 pullback based on her conviction, Alibaba, Nvidia and Zoom’s IPO. I shorted Uber and Lyft based on her analysis and made roughly 20% and 15% (options weren’t available) and the only time I’ve successfully shorted Tesla was based on her analysis (I tried a few times prior) for a return of over 100% on options when price fell from $260 to $190. Overall, I’m averaging 120% returns in the last two years on my tech allocation based off Beth’s fundamentals.
We believe Beth’s fundamental analysis combined with my technical analysis will increase gains quite a bit as we can help you find a good entry. We will offer you a shopping list if we see a pullback and we will also have a good idea of what stocks will keep winning if we see the bull market resume.
Ideally, what I look for is to initiate entries into tech companies that are positioned to capitalize on emerging tech trends not known to the broader markets because true life changing gains can take place in the tech sector over time. I personally will trade options, short weak stocks and hedge my longs when we are at valuation extremes, but my primary goal is to buy and hold solid tech companies at great prices. Buy and hold remains the winning strategy with one caveat – you have to be ahead of a major tech trend and choose the right company.