Category: Applications

Social Media Stocks: One Metric Shows Meta’s Clear Leadership

Posted on by io-fund

This article was originally published on Forbes on Jan 11, 2024,05:24pm ESTForbes Forbes on Jan 11, 2024,05:24pm EST

Social media stocks Meta (META), Pinterest (PINS), and Snapchat (SNAP) enjoyed strong gains in 2023 as the broader ad market stabilized and fundamentals improved. Social media ad spend is expected to remain robust in 2024, with one of the fastest projected growth rates in the ad industry at +13.8% to reach $227.2 billion, less than 1% shy of search ad spend.

This upbeat ad market forecast leaves investors questioning if more upside awaits social media stocks in 2024. In this analysis, we dig into Meta’s leadership in the space, some improving trends at Pinterest, and how Snapchat has weaker ARPU than its peers.

Meta’s strength in ARPU and cash flow generation stands out here, setting it clearly apart from Snapchat and Pinterest – it can maintain spending 30% of gross profit on R&D while driving significant cash flow growth.

Ad Pricing Recovers While Impressions Remain Strong

Ad impression growth remains strong for Meta and Pinterest, while ad pricing is in the initial stages of a recovery after declining for multiple quarters as companies optimized budgets through much of 2022 and early 2023.

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Meta: Ad Impressions Remain Strong

Meta reported 31% YoY growth in ad impressions in Q3, a second straight quarter with growth above 30% YoY after a string of growth in the teens in 2022. Impression growth was driven by APAC and Rest of World, Facebook’s two largest and fastest growing geographies for daily active users. DAUs rose ~6% higher in both regions to top 1.57 billion combined, equivalent to 75.5% of Facebook’s global DAUs.

Ad pricing declined (6%) in Q3, adding further confirmation that pricing bottomed in Q4 2022. The decline was driven by that strong growth in impressions in APAC and Rest of World, as the two are Facebook’s lowest monetizing regions with ARPU less than half of global ARPU. Meta said that “overall engagement on Facebook and Instagram remains strong,” and Reels “continues to grow and drive incremental engagement.”

What investors should watch for is if improved ad targeting from AI features can help drive ad pricing back to growth, supported by a favorable spending backdrop and continuing strength in ad impressions globally.

Meta Ad Impressions & Ad Pricing Growth, YoY

Source: Meta

Pinterest: Pricing Remains Depressed

Pinterest reported similarly strong trends in ad impression growth while pricing also remained depressed. Pinterest said in its Q3 earnings call that it has “been able to drive increases in both total impressions and in ad loads simultaneously,” thus driving impression growth of 26% YoY. This marked a significant 10 percentage point increase from the 16% impression growth from Q2 and Q1.

Pricing declined (12%) in Q3, an 8 percentage point sequential improvement from a (20%) decline in Q2. Pinterest chalked up the improvement to “industry-wide demand stabilization” and its “AI-fueled ad stack efficiencies.” However, a double-digit decline for ad pricing is weighing on strong impressions growth, as Pinterest has struggled to meaningfully improve ARPU this year.

Snapchat: Growth Still in Single Digits

While its peers are reporting high double-digit impressions growth, Snapchat’s growth remains in the single-digits, reporting just 7% YoY growth in Q3. This marked a slight 2 percentage point acceleration over Q2, though it remained below the growth levels seen throughout 2022, a stark contrast to both Meta and Pinterest who have witnessed double-digit percentage point accelerations.

Pricing is nearing an inflection, recovering to just a (5%) decline in Q3 compared to an (18%) decline in Q1 as impressions growth continues to outpace demand.

Snapchat Ad Pricing & Ad Impressions, YoY Growth

Source: Snapchat

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Meta & Pinterest ARPU Accelerating

Meta and Pinterest both are demonstrating accelerating ARPU in core geographies, whereas Snapchat is struggling to improve monetization of its user base, with ARPU in core geographies declining. All three displayed solid double-digit ARPU growth in Europe, a dominant factor in global ARPU growth in Q3.

  • Meta’s global ARPU increased 19% YoY to $11.23, aided by 34% YoY growth in Europe to $19.04. US & Canada ARPU rose 14% YoY to $56.11, marking a solid acceleration from 7% growth in Q2.
  • Pinterest’s global ARPU rose just 3% YoY to $1.61, aided by 5% YoY growth in US & Canada $6.46. Europe’s ARPU rose 26% to $0.91 in the quarter.
  • Snapchat’s global ARPU declined (6%) YoY to $2.93, as North America ARPU fell (4%) YoY to $7.82 as monetization struggles persist. Europe mirrored peers with double-digit growth, at 15% YoY to $2.11.
Meta Pinterest, Snapchat Global ARPU, Q3 2021 - Q3 2023

Source: Company Filings

Over the past two years, Snapchat’s ARPU weakness is visible. Global ARPU is down (16%) relative to Q3 2021, compared to a 12% increase for Meta over the same period. Pinterest’s ARPU is trending relatively in line to 2022’s levels, and looks relatively weak, sitting around half of Snapchat’s ARPU with slow growth reported in Q3. Meta’s ARPU has accelerated through 2023 and is on track to potentially reach a record level in Q4.

R&D Expenditure Trends Highlight Meta’s Leading Position

Snapchat lags both Pinterest and Meta with weaker impressions growth and declining ARPU. That is the key shortcoming in Snapchat’s growth story: an inability to effectively monetize its user base to generate GAAP-profitable growth.

R&D expenditure trends highlight both Snapchat’s inefficiencies, while clearly demonstrating Meta’s ability to maintain high R&D spend and be a cash machine.

Meta, Pinterest, Snapchat R&D to Revenue

Source: Ycharts

Snapchat is putting more than 44% of its revenue into R&D, compared to 36% for Pinterest and nearly 30% for Meta – the three have all increased R&D expenditures as a percentage of revenue since 2022, for the development and deployment of AI and ML features as well as other product innovations. Snapchat’s primary R&D investment is augmented reality, both to increase user engagement – more than 60% of DAUs interact with AR features – and to drive increased ROI and click-through rates for advertisers.

However, the real issue for Snapchat — what sets it apart from Pinterest and Meta and the reason it will struggle to reach and generate GAAP profitable growth over the medium term – is that it is spending around 80% of its gross profit dollars on R&D.

Meta, Pinterest, Snapchat R&D to Gross Profit

Source: Ycharts

Essentially, Snapchat is spending a disproportionately high amount on R&D relative to peers while failing to increase ARPU and monetization within its user base. This is creating a downward spiral for GAAP profitability from operations, with GAAP operating margin below (30%) in each quarter in 2023 and below (22%) for seven straight quarters.

What sets Meta apart is that it can maintain a high level of R&D spend – at more than 33% of gross profit in Q3 and above 36% YTD through Q3 – while remaining a cash cow with strong operating cash flow and free cash flow growth. Meta’s operating cash flow margin rose to nearly 60% in Q3 as it generated $20.4 billion in OCF during the quarter. Meta is on track to deliver nearly 50% growth in OCF in 2023 to nearly $75 billion, assuming OCF margin in Q4 stays in line with Q3’s level. Free cash flow totaled $13.64 billion in Q3, a 40% margin, while YTD free cash flow was $31.51 billion, a 33% margin.

Valuation

Snapchat’s 90% rally in Q4 has taken its valuation on an EV to revenue basis nearly in line with Meta and Pinterest, though Snapchat is much more expensive than the two on an EV to operating cash flow basis.

Pinterest, Snap, Meta EV to Revenues

Source: Ycharts

Snapchat is trading at nearly 5.9x EV/revenue, compared to 6.7x EV/revenue for Meta and 7.5x EV/revenue for Pinterest. Forecasted revenue growth rates for the three currently sit in the teens: 13.4% for Snapchat, 16.5% for Pinterest, and 13.0% for Meta.

In terms of EV to operating cash flow, Snapchat trades at a high premium given it sees inconsistent growth in OCF – it currently trades at 71.1x OCF, versus 38.5x for Pinterest and 11x for Meta. Pinterest’s operating cash flow growth has also been lumpy, though its cash flow generation remains stronger than Snapchat’s. Meta is significantly cash flow positive, and may deliver nearly 50% growth in OCF in 2023 to nearly $75 billion.

Pinterest, Snap, Meta EV to CFO

Source: Ycharts

Conclusion

Bullishness on social media stocks has risen rapidly – Meta leads the tech universe with the most analyst buy recommendations heading into 2024 with 41, and bullishness on Pinterest has reached 2021 levels, with approximately 70% of analysts giving it a buy rating.

Pinterest Analyst's Bullishness

Source: Bloomberg

Meta’s ability to drive significant growth in multiple key metrics sets it apart from Snapchat and Pinterest as a clear leader in the social media sphere. The Facebook and Instagram parent continues to witness strong growth in ad impressions as pricing recovers, driving ARPU higher, while its superior margin profile allows it to spend 18x more than Snapchat on R&D while generating substantial cash flow.

Pinterest’s ARPU is relatively in line with 2022’s levels, but single-digit growth raises red flags as ARPU is much lower, around half of Snapchat’s and less than one-tenth of Meta’s. Snapchat is struggling to effectively monetize its user base, and is spending substantially more of its gross profit dollars on R&D without seeing material benefits to growth.

I/O Fund Equity Analyst Damien Robbins contributed to this analysis.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Update on Snap’s Q3 Earnings

Posted on by io-fund

The I/O Fund discussed Apple’s privacy changes many times and it’s the reason we closed some positions last quarter (PINS, U). Not only have I been covering the deprecation of the IDFA for two years since Advertising Week New York 2019 (see below), but I also made it the central topic of a 1-Hour LTBH Webinar in May. I took it even further and released an editorial about two weeks ago. I obsessively covered this topic because I remember the last time Big Tech giants changed the rules to how the ad ecosystem worked, and frankly, it took some strong ad-tech companies out of business (Millennial Media).

So, why didn’t we trim Snap going into earnings? For two reasons. The first is they are a publisher with first-party data, which means they own the audience. They do not have a third-party data ad platform (even Twitter does with MoPub). Owning the audience provides some protection during changes to the ad ecosystem. Publishers don’t typically see long-term issues with revenue from ad ecosystem changes like this. Secondly, the advertisers on Snap can’t go anywhere else to find that audience, except maybe TikTok. It’s a rising (or lowering) of all boat situation. The apps where Millennials are found on mobile will be affected similarly in terms of tracking and measurement. Snap’s advertisers don’t have many places they can go to reach Millennials.

According to management, the effectiveness of their ads remained intact, rather it’s a tooling issue to where advertisers must now use two tools – Apple’s SKAdNetwork and Snap’s proprietary Advanced Conversions tool for measurement. In their words, “And that process, adopting SKAdnetwork, adopting advanced conversions, running incrementality testing, and really building trust in these new solutions after the tooling you've been using for a decade has essentially gone away. That just takes time and is really challenging …. And when we look at incrementality testing, when we look at first-party data like on platform swipes or installs, things like that, we see that those conversions are still happening at similar rates that they did in the past. So, I think we can work through the tooling issues; it will take time because they're new. But the underlying performance of the advertising platform is still very strong.”So, I think we can work through the tooling issues; it will take time because they're new. But the underlying performance of the advertising platform is still very strong.”

When pressed to say if this was a Q4 issue or a longer-term headwind, management repeatedly came back to Q4 and avoided saying it was a longer-term issue when responding to two questions that tried to nail down if this was headwind that would take “a year,” “12 months,” “quarters,” etcetera. They also mentioned they already have 50% uptake on their Advanced Conversion tool. The company also did not lower long-term guidance and rather said twice that the fundamentals in the business are intact.

There are a few ways to tell if management is giving us a clear picture and what we can expect long-term. The first is ARPU which was up 28% to $3.49. The other audience growth, which even with high Covid comps on user growth, Snap has been doing very well here with 23% growth or 306 million users and this is tied for the second highest in 4 years with last quarter. The iOS15 issues caused Snap to come in $3 million below their previous guidance for this quarter and to lower estimates for next quarter. The forward guidance of 30% at the midpoint was much lower than the previous guide of 49%. However, we don’t have the other ad-tech reports yet to compare. Without that, it’s impossible to say if Snap is weathering iOS changes quite well or worse than its peers. That’s a key thing to understand – Snap has a disadvantage in terms of the market’s reaction because they reported first. I need to see Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, and some ad exchanges like The Trade Desk and Unity.

This particular statement foreshadows what is to come for those who do not have their own tools (or first party data):

Adoption of our new measurement solutions, such as advanced conversions is ongoing but will take time to be fully adopted. In addition, the ecosystem for measuring advertising returns is continuing to shift, with more changes anticipated as part of IOS 15, that are expected to further reduce the availability of certain signals that are currently used broadly as tools for optimization and measurement. Continuing to evolve and adapt our measurement solutions amid the rapidly shifting operating environment is a top priority as we seek to deliver attractive returns on advertising spent for our advertising partners over the long term. The ongoing growth of our community, and strong engagement in areas of our application that we have not yet begun to monetize, provide confidence in the value of our inventory and platform over the long-term, as we continue to navigate these changes.with more changes anticipated as part of IOS 15, that are expected to further reduce the availability of certain signals that are currently used broadly as tools for optimization and measurement. Continuing to evolve and adapt our measurement solutions amid the rapidly shifting operating environment is a top priority as we seek to deliver attractive returns on advertising spent for our advertising partners over the long term. The ongoing growth of our community, and strong engagement in areas of our application that we have not yet begun to monetize, provide confidence in the value of our inventory and platform over the long-term, as we continue to navigate these changes.

What Snap is saying is that their tool will help hedge the ongoing changes that Apple has planned. What they need to solve for is the adoption of that tool. Q4 is especially challenging because supply chain issues has led to lower motivation by advertisers to adopt those tools.

I can see how the near-term headwinds concerns investors yet the company is doing all the right things – the audience growth, the ARPU growth, the first-party ad measurement tool (Advanced Conversions) and they discussed other tools coming out in Q4 to increase ROI. Plus, you’ve got AR/VR brand ads as a major catalyst. my 1-Hour LTBH Webinar on Snap, my thesis for Snap centers around on-platform and off-platform AR/VR.

The shock of lowering guidance by 19% is stronger than usual because there was no heads up. If it’s only a quarter, then Snap has too strong of a long-term story to stay down for long. I’m confident institutions will agree because of the audience growth and that AR/VR catalyst. At this point, what I don’t know is if this is industry-wide for all iOS mobile inventory or only for direct response. Snap won’t be able to help us there because app install ads isn’t their main format, etc. Snap is obviously all mobile, but again, the issues really should be transitory due to owning the data and being able to use proprietary tools. I’ll follow up when we get a few more ad-tech earnings.

The point of the LTBH portfolio is to not get shaken out of quality stories and products. This is a good example of that. I would let you know if I saw something that was out of the ordinary. I don't want to miss the AR/VR catalyst as it outweighs any temporary weakness.

More on IDFA:

I would recommend the LTBH 1-hour webinar as the starting point because it’s when I was really beginning to position us in the portfolio for iOS 15 changes. I’m also getting a lot of questions about Magnite and Roku and I cover that in the webinar. Also, Twilio’s LTBH 1-Hour Webinar and this on analysis on Magnite also talked about what our plan has been.

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