I/O Fund Reports 210% Cumulative Return — Ranking Above Wall Street’s Best

Posted on March 31, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

In 2024, I/O Fund posted a 35% return, significantly outperforming popular tech ETFs, which recorded an 8% return over the same period. On a cumulative basis, the results translate to a remarkable 219% outperformance compared to competing tech portfolios.

The I/O Fund outperformed the S&P 500 by 109% and outperformed the Nasdaq-100 by 82%.
In 2024, the I/O Fund returned 35%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 11% and the Nasdaq-100 by 10%.
Since inception, the I/O Fund has maintained a lead of up to 219% over institutional technology portfolios.

If you had invested $10,000 with the I/O Fund's picks versus other all-tech portfolios at inception, the difference would be a portfolio value of $31,026 with IOF versus $9,737 with institutional tech-focused portfolios. The difference in value is 219%.

I/O Fund Surpasses Wall Street’s Most Successful Firms

The I/O Fund actively manages risk through hedging and raising cash, therefore, the closest comparison in terms of style would be hedge funds. Our current performance since inception places us as one of the top-performing actively managed portfolios in the world, with an annualized return of 27.6% since May of 2020. Our ranking would be #2 in the United States, ahead of famous fund managers such as Pershing Square, Tiger Global and Citadel.

Source: Levelfields and ChartartisanLevelfields and Chartartisan

I/O Fund is a leading portfolio specializing in tech stocks – if we were a Hedge Fund, our performance would be ranked #2 in the US. We have consistently outperformed some of the biggest hedge funds like Pershing Square, Tiger Global Management, and Citadel.

Even when considering leveraged ETFs, which tend to use future contracts to double the returns (and losses) of the underlying index, we would still place in the top 10 since our inception. This is remarkable considering SPX and the Nasdaq-100 had strong back-to-back annual performances.

Notably, leveraged ETFs are typically used as trading vehicles rather than as long investments. Considering they utilize future contracts, the longer they are held the more they deviate from their expected result. Therefore, Ark is the closest competitor to what we offer as an actively managed all-tech portfolio. As depicted in the chart above, our lead over Ark is 219%.

I/O Fund’s cumulative returns of 210% notably outperformed some of the most popular tech stocks ETFs like XLK by 65%. Source: YCharts and InsiderMonkeyYCharts and InsiderMonkey

Further, when we combine the entire universe of ETFs with Mutual Funds, which is another long option for investors yet are not exclusive to tech nor do they hedge, we would rank #8.

The above list shows that I/O Fund is a top-performing tech portfolio with only Fidelity ranking higher in cumulative returns among tech-focused ETFs and mutual funds. Source: YCharts and InsiderMonkeyamong tech-focused ETFs and mutual funds. Source: YCharts and InsiderMonkey

When you consider these portfolios have billions of assets under managementbillions of assets under management and are managed by those considered to be the best investors in the worldthe best investors in the world, we feel what we offer is of immense value.

2024 was the Year of Consistency:

It has been a wild ride; yet we have strived for consistency. In 2024, we had ten positions outperform the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500. This follows seven positions beating the broad indexes last year in 2023.

Although we reserve the complete list for our paid members, below are a few highlights we can share with you:

We held Nvidia as a top position and then trimmed ¼ of the position on June 13th with SMH topping in July. We further discussed our strategy to reduce exposure to AI semis in Q3 and Q4, spotting sector-wide weakness, which helped to minimize losses.
We kept Bitcoin as a top 3 allocation while providing 7 buy alerts, all of which closed the year up 50%+.
Our combined realized returns on an AI hypergrowth stocks was 243% while utilizing risk management to sidestep volatility.
We also captured an outsized 87% return on cybersecurity stock, yet closed the position before the stock saw a volatile drawdown.
We closed a crypto position for a quick 99% gain.
Netflix outperformed the Nasdaq in 2024 and was closed for 164% realized gain in 2024

Nvidia +172%

Leading up to the release of the Hopper GPUs, we were net buyers of Nvidia in 2021 through early 2023. On average, it was held as a 15% position throughout 2022 – 2023. As we moved into 2024, Nvidia was allowed to exceed this allocation to become our first ever 20% position. We began taking heavy gains in the $130 – $140 region. Today, we are waiting for better prices to begin accumulating again.

Bitcoin +121%

We have been systematically accumulating Bitcoin since early 2023. In 2024, we issued seven buy alerts, all of which closed the year up more than 50%. We also began taking significant gains in our Bitcoin position between $80,000 – $106,000.

Super Micro +243%

Super Micro was a high conviction play in 2023, which we closed for a sizable gain around the 2024 top. We attempted to re-establish a small position in mid-2024, but decided to close that attempt for a loss due to the accounting issues SMCI was facing.

Netflix +164%

NFLX was a high conviction stock that we began accumulating at the same moment that Wall Street’s best, such as Bill Ackman, were closing their positions. We felt the Street had this stock wrong. With multiple tactical buys, the average opening price to the average closing price came out to a 164% realized gain in less than 2 years. The decision to close it was based on a combination of fundamental issues as well as technical targets being reached.

Crypto Altcoin +99%

While Bitcoin was clearly in a strong uptrend, we decided to play the momentum in a crypto altcoin. With an opening average cost basis and closing average cost basis in 2024, we logged a relatively quick 99% in less than a year.

Cybersecurity Stock +87%

We opened a position in a cybersecurity stock in early 2023 and began taking gains in early 2024. We ended up closing the entire position for a realized gain of 87%, just before the stock fell 41% from a streak of bad news. We were early to exit due to the fundamentals team listening closely to the earnings call and sensing weakness.

📢 You can read our full press release here: “I/O Fund Dominates Tech Sector with a Staggering 210% Cumulative Return in Less than 5 Years” ou can read our full press release here: “I/O Fund Dominates Tech Sector with a Staggering 210% Cumulative Return in Less than 5 Years” /O Fund Dominates Tech Sector with a Staggering 210% Cumulative Return in Less than 5 Years” 📈 Read the Full Press Release

Key Points on How the I/O Fund is Different

Real-time trade alerts are sent to our members the minute we decide to buy, sell, trim or add to a stock. For those who may not be aware, this is extremely challenging to do as it combines the two most advanced forms of portfolio management.

One of the most advanced forms of portfolio management is real-time trade alerts. This places immense pressure on a portfolio manager as the stakes are high to record what you do every second in real-time. To voluntarily choose to have the highest level of accountability in retail is nearly unheard of, yet registered fund managers are required to do this and file their stock trades.
Logging trades in real-time also places immense pressure on the analysts at the I/O Fund, as well, who are not allowed to simply choose a stock but must also determine the allocation for the stock. After recommending a stock, the analysts must help the portfolio manager actively manage the position, which can change at any time.
Hedging up to 100% of a portfolio is also a large psychological hurdle, and traditionally a risky one. Markets spend the vast majority of their history in uptrends, for one. Secondly, the amount you can lose on a short is literally infinite, to where one’s downside risk is capped at 0 on the long side. Although hedging must be reviewed with each Member’s financial advisor, many of our members simply use the information as a critical risk-on and risk-off signal.

These are rare offerings in stock investing research. However, since day one – we refused to publish reports without risk management.

We recently published an article “The Harsh Truth: Retail Investors Take the Brunt of Wall Street Losses” to illustrate why retail investors should not accept a low standard when choosing a stock research site.

There is a reason most services do not provide this level of transparency and activity. The more granularity that is offered, the more skill is required. The stakes are much higher when what you do is recorded the minute the action is taken, but overall, having the highest level of accountability possible has made the I/O Fund much sharper investors.

Verified Returns

In addition to a lack of risk management tools, I believe a lack of verified returns in the retail space contributes to the losses this investor type experiences. Smart money is careful about who they consider a good investor — they do not take someone’s word they are a good investor; they make the investors or firms they follow prove it. Every single hedge fund must report their returns, which reduces the chances of posturing.

How the I/O Fund Sets a High Bar for Accountability

Over the past few years, the I/O Fund has invested over $175,000 into accountability and transparency for our members. When we launched in July of 2019, for the first year or so, we used a forum hosted by Tribe for our trade alerts for a cost of about $10,000 per year, but by January of 2021, we had migrated to SMS and email tools that were the least likely to experience an outage for our real-time trade alerts (Twilio and Mailchimp). This costs us $30,000 to $40,000 per year, depending on our trading frequency.

In addition to this, we use an auditor from a large firm in San Francisco to mathematically review and verify the performance of our I/O Fund portfolio trading account and crypto account. The process is quite extensive, and it takes up to four months to complete. This costs $4,500 per audit and we’ve completed six audits for a total of $27,000 spent on this process. Accountability is expensive but we feel it’s worth it.

Conclusion:

When I founded the I/O Fund in 2019, it began as an experiment — one that, candidly, I was unsure would succeed. Upon speaking to mentors and others in the field, I was urged to go to the institutional side and to "not bother with retail." This is because institutions pay a higher price for research and are not as emotional during drawdowns. But therein lies the pain point I was trying to solve — which is that retail is offered breadcrumbs — such as stock research that does not provide the most important part of a portfolio (trades or allocations), boastful claims of returns with no accountability plus an utter lack of risk management tools. To worsen the matter, popular tech ETFs greatly underperform the broader indexes — leaving little to no options for retail to participate in the highly rewarding tech sector.

In sharp contrast to other research sites, the I/O Fund logs every trade in real-time, our portfolio is independently verified by an accounting firm in San Francisco, and our deep dive research is early and actionable — proven to identify some of the market's biggest winners years before the Street. In tech, the rubber meets the road with risk management, which our firm has championed since day one with technical analysis, weekly 1 hour webinars that focus entirely on risk management, and even hedging up to 100% of the portfolio to offer clear indications of whether the market is risk-on or risk-off.

I am pleased to say the results have truly shattered my expectations.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Essentials Report, March 2025

Posted on March 31, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Broad Market

The I/O Fund uses many tools to manage risk in our all-tech portfolio. One of these methods is monitoring broad markets to gauge the health of a trend. For example, in early January and February, we kept beating the drum with our Advanced members that the S&P 500 is making a higher high without most of the Mag 7, the NASDAQ-100, Small Caps, and Semiconductors. Divergences like this tend to signal weakness ahead.

We used this type of analysis to warn our Advanced members that we were raising high levels of cash, as well as hedging our portfolio at the first sign of volatility. This allowed us to mitigate the drawdown over the last month, while having cash on hand to buy some great AI stocks at beaten down levels.

While we reserve regular broad market updates and webinars for the Advanced tier, we do at times open our broad market analysis to all tiers when we believe that we are at a potential inflection point.

Regarding the broad market, we think that we are due for a bounce over the coming weeks for a few reasons. The primary reason is sentiment. The AAII is a weekly survey that dates to the 1970s. Every week they ask retail investors where they think the market will be in the future. It has a remarkable record of gauging sentiment as a contrarian indicator.

Over the last 5 weeks, we have seen some of the most bearish consecutive readings in the survey’s history. The percentage of bearish readings were 100% or 99% for the first 4 weeks, with a 97% print this week. This level of consecutive, extreme bearish sentiment rivals the COVID lows, the 2022 lows and even the 2009 lows.

Furthermore, short interest on US stocks has risen to the highest level since the COVID panic. Not only is sentiment abysmal right now, but it appears that investors are now loading onto the short side of the market.

We are not making predications, only presenting sentiment extremes, which historically lead to an unwind. The market tends to move in the direction that will hurt the most people, and right now that level is up. This data supports higher level from here; however, we are also prepared in case this bounce does not materialize.

Regarding the S&P 500, the line in the sand is 5400. If any further weakness holds this level, I think it is reasonable to expect 5800 – 6050 in SPX over the coming weeks. If this bounce can break above 6050, then the odds increase that we can see 6300 in the coming weeks.

Our game plan is to continue to raise cash, and layer back into our hedges on any additional strength. Even if we see a push to 6300, we will follow this plan, as this will likely be the final swing before a relatively large bout of volatility is realized, if it hasn’t already started.

If the market decides to break below 5400 in direct fashion without a bounce, I think it is reasonable to expect a more direct drop to 5200 – 4800. So, while contrarian sentiment readings support a short covering rally in coming weeks, this does not mean that this will manifest. Hopefully, the above levels can help you manage risk as the market chooses a direction.

If you are interested in a day-by-day update on both broad market risk, and how the I/O Fund manages market volatility in real-time, please consider our Advanced Tier. We are offering a 30% discount to all Essentials Members – please contact support@io-fund.com for details.. We are offering a 30% discount to all Essentials Members – please contact support@io-fund.com for detailssupport@io-fund.com for details.

Nvidia (NVDA)

The evidence continues to mount that NVDA could see a move to sub-$100 in the coming weeks. While the next move will likely be a bounce to $128 – $135, this appears to be a correction in a larger move lower. My final target for NVDA is $95 – $83, at which we will start accumulating again.

For this to manifest, we need to see any further strength hold under $135 and then turn lower. If we are going to avoid a lower low, any further strength cannot exceed over $135. Over this level will start supporting a push to new highs in the coming months.

Let’s say we do not see a bigger bounce from here. Then a sustained break below $110.90 suggests that we are heading directly to the targets zone from here.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

TSM ‘s drop has gone lower than I wanted to see. This does not mean that we can’t see a push to new highs from here, but it does increase the risk that the next bounce will be a lower high within a larger correction.

Regarding the next bounce, note how TSM is making a new low with less volume and less momentum. This appears to be the final push in this leg of the correction. The coming bounce should get us into the $189 – $203 region. If we are going to break to new highs, we need to push over the $205 region.

The pattern that has unfolded since the August 2024 low is quite weak and overlapping. Because of this, if we do see a push to new highs, it would likely be the final swing higher before a larger correction unfolds. So, any additional strength from here should be properly risk managed, considering.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

We began accumulating Bitcoin in early 2023. Since then, we have offered 12 buy alerts ranging from $26,000 – $62,000. However, since November of last year, we announced that we are going to begin to take gains and sold more than half of our position between $80,500 – $104,000. We recently added some of this back to play the possible next swing higher.

Bitcoin’s pattern appears to be incomplete and suggests that one more swing to the $120,000+ region is the most likely. The current bounce that we are seeing should take us to $96,000 – $101,000. Once we get to this region, we will need to be on guard for a reversal. If we do reverse from this zone, we could see a larger drop into the $60,000 region before finding a low. If we are going to push to new highs, we must take out $101,000 with expanding volume.

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The Harsh Truth: Retail Investors Take the Brunt of Market Losses

Posted on March 28, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Next week, the I/O Fund will be releasing our official 2024 returns, along with our updated cumulative and annualized returns. However, before we release our returns, we think it’s prudent to discuss the importance of verified returns for retail investors.

Retail Investors Take the Brunt of Market Losses

The unfortunate reality is that retail investors disproportionately suffer losses compared to institutional investors. According to a study by Dalbar Inc., the average retail investor underperformed the S&P 500 by 6.1% annually over a 20-year period with a 5.5% gap in 2023, which was higher than the gap in 2022 – showing that bull markets often do not reward retail investors in the way that it’s perceived. According to the report, this is because “investors tend to sell out of investments during downturns and miss out on rebounds." Additionally, Bloomberg found that 80% of day traders quit after the first two years.

A University of Oxford professor explains this disparity: "Retail investors will always lose money because they lack the ‘education,’ whereas financial professionals are well-informed – that’s what they do."

This is especially concerning given that retail investors now make up 25% of the market, a sharp increase from 10-15% before the pandemic, according to Bloomberg Intelligence (Bloomberg, 2023). With more individual investors participating, the need for risk management and verified returns has never been greater.

The I/O Fund will officially release our 2024 returns and cumulative returns next week, with results that prove our firm has handily beat not only the indexes but also Wall Street’s best firms. Stay tuned to your inbox!

The Role of Quant Machines in Extreme Volatility

One of the primary culprits behind today’s extreme market swings is high-frequency trading (HFT) and algorithmic investing. While many newer investors picture a stock trading floor with market makers assisting trades, the reality is far different. Instead, the market is largely controlled by colocation data centers filled with high-speed servers executing trades in milliseconds.

Algorithms thrive on volatility, often triggering rapid selloffs that disproportionately hurt retail investors

Research shows that HFT firms account for 50-60% of U.S. equity trading volume, making them dominant players in the market. These algorithms thrive on volatility, often triggering rapid selloffs that disproportionately hurt retail investors, who don’t have the same tools to react instantly. A study by the CFA Institute found that flash crashes, largely caused by algorithmic trading, wipe out billions in market value within minutes, often before retail investors can even process what’s happening.

For example, during the May 6, 2010, flash crash, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 1,000 points in just 10 minutes, temporarily erasing nearly $1 trillion in market value—a drop largely attributed to high-frequency trading algorithms. Similarly, in December 2018, a wave of algorithm-driven selling caused the S&P 500 to drop nearly 20% in a matter of weeks, triggering widespread panic among retail investors.

Join thousands of investors who trust I/O Fund’s expert stock analysis on AI, semiconductors, cryptocurrency, and adtech — sign up for free! Click here!Join thousands of investors who trust I/O Fund’s expert stock analysis on AI, semiconductors, cryptocurrency, and adtech — sign up for free! Click here!

A report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) further found that high-frequency trading increases market fragility, as it can amplify both buying and selling pressure, creating price swings that disproportionately impact smaller traders. Per Ox Journal: “Although, all these benefits do come at a cost, derived also from the increase in liquidity that these algorithms provide; the cost is the increase in volatility. To be exact, Zhang finds that high-frequency trading increases short-term intraday volatility by 30%.”

Without access to sophisticated trading tools, retail investors are left vulnerable to these rapid market fluctuations.

Why Risk Management Tools Are Essential

Unlike institutional investors, retail traders rarely have access to advanced risk management tools, leaving them vulnerable to market swings. This is where the I/O Fund bridges the gap. Our firm provides:

Real-time trade alerts – Ensuring transparency and timely decision-making.
Advanced portfolio strategies – Utilizing hedging techniques to mitigate downturns.
Educational insights – Helping retail investors understand market dynamics.
Portfolio allocation models – Guiding investors in constructing balanced, risk-adjusted portfolios.

A study by Morningstar found that investors who utilized risk-managed portfolios had 30% less volatility in returns over a 10-year period compared to those without structured strategies.

The Importance of Verified Returns

One major factor contributing to retail investor losses is the lack of transparency in the financial space. Institutional investors do not take performance claims at face value—they demand verified proof. Every hedge fund is required to report returns, reducing the chances of misleading data.

In addition to this, we use an auditor from a large firm in San Francisco to mathematically review and verify the performance of our I/O Fund portfolio trading account and crypto account. The process is quite extensive and it takes up to four months to complete. This costs $4,500 per audit and we’ve completed six audits for a total of $27,000 spent on this process. Accountability is expensive but we feel it’s worth it.

Raising the Standards for Retail Investors

The I/O Fund was founded on the principle that retail investors deserve the same high standards that institutional investors insist upon. By demanding transparency, utilizing professional risk management strategies, and offering deep dive research, retail investors can position themselves for success rather than becoming caught up in market volatility.

As we finalize our annual audit for 2024, we remain committed to providing the highest level of accountability in the industry. Our 2024 performance results will be published soon and we look forward to continuing to raise the bar for retail investors everywhere.

To further extend our goal of providing exceptional quality research for retail investors, we are pleased to announce the launch of our new Discovery tier after diligently working on this endeavor for nearly a year. The new tier is designed to surface dozens of new ideas each year and give our members a wider range of research into AI hardware, software, crypto and other areas that extend well beyond the I/O Fund’s portfolio.

Here is some coverage we have published over the past month on the Discovery tier:

A high beta stock with 21X growth potential from supplying power quickly to key AI hyperscalers
Power management integrated circuits (PMICs) company with signals for strong growth in H2
Nuclear and natural gas supplier for AI data centers
Coming soon: Biggest incoming IPO in the AI sector

For a limited time, get a 25% discount on Discovery priced at $299 through April 10th using code SAVE100DISC Learn more here.

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Micron FQ2 Results: Record $1 billion HBM revenue; Mixed Consumer Results

Posted on March 28, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Micron beat analyst consensus estimates and offered better-than-expected guidance. The company expects strong growth to continue in the next quarter, driven by increased DRAM and NAND shipments. The management also highlighted strong AI data center demand and the ramp-up of HBM products.

Management was quite optimistic about the opportunity in HBM, by increasing the TAM for calendar year 2025 from over $30 billion to over $35 billion. The management also reiterated that the company’s 2025 HBM production is fully allocated and is in discussion with customers for the calendar year 2026.

In the past, Micron did not report the AI HBM revenue. Management highlighted that the company reported record data center revenue, with the HBM revenue growing more than 50% sequentially, to over $1 billion in their recent quarter. The HBM shipments were ahead of the company’s projections, demonstrating strong execution of the ongoing ramp.

The management also highlighted that the company’s HBM3E 8-high is designed into NVIDIA's GB200 system, and the HBM3E 12-high is designed into the GB300. Micron also initiated volume shipments to the third large HBM3E customer in FQ2 and anticipates additional customers over time. At the recent GTC 2025 event, Micron showcased its complete AI memory and storage portfolio to support AI from the data center to the edge. The company’s High-performance Micron 9550 NVMe and Micron 7450 NVMe SSDs are included on the GB200 NVL72 recommended vendor list. They expect multibillion dollars in HBM revenue in FY2025. Micron’s HBM4 is expected to ramp in volume in calendar year 2026 and is 60% faster than HBM3E.

This quarter, revenue grew by 38.3% YoY yet was down (-7.5%) QoQ to $8.05 billion, beating estimates by 2%. Adjusted EPS grew by 271.4% YoY to $1.56, beating estimates by 9.5%. However, the company’s gross margins were below the guidance due to a higher mix of consumer products and lower NAND prices.

The FQ3 revenue guidance is $8.8 billion, representing YoY growth of 29.2% and 9.3% QoQ growth at the midpoint, beating estimates by 3.8%. Adjusted EPS guide is $1.57, representing YoY growth of 153.2%, beating estimates by 3.3%.

Micron’s valuation remains low with a P/E ratio of 22.7 and a forward P/E ratio of 13.6. Its P/S ratio is 3.4 and a forward P/S ratio is 3. A few reasons that Micron’s valuation is lower than AI peers is likely due to memory being more cyclical and Micron seeing fierce competition with SK Hynix and Samsung, which leads to more commoditized pricing. There is China, as well, which represents 12% of revenue – although this is not likely to be a leading reason for the lower valuation. Micron's earnings power also fluctuates wildly at times due to the cyclical nature of the memory market. More recently, the increasing consumer revenue mix and lower NAND prices have also led to analysts reducing estimates, which have also led to lower valuations.

What Micron will need to answer is if the cyclical nature of the memory market will smooth out as the dollar content of memory is rapidly increasing. AI training and inference rely heavily on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for the massive memory bandwidth that complex models require. AI servers also use more DRAM and NAND than a traditional server. These are reasons that Micron’s cyclical fundamentals could become more secular as the AI economy is built out.

Ultimately, we want to keep a close eye on companies that are at the forefront of AI yet have valuations that do not reflect this outsized growth. Below are notes that discuss the most recent earnings report as well as references to our previous coverage.

Bullish HBM commentary

Management set out an optimistic tone about the opportunity in HBM and increased the TAM to over $35 billion for CY2025, up 17% from the previous estimate provided during FQ1 results. As previously noted, the company’s 2025 HBM production was fully allocated and are further seeing strong demand for the HBM supply in 2026 and are in discussions with the customers on agreements for their calendar 2026 HBM demand.

“We see strong demand for HBM and have once again increased our HBM TAM estimate for calendar 2025 to over $35 billion. We remain on track to reach HBM share similar to our overall DRAM supply share on a run rate basis in calendar Q4 2025. As previously mentioned, Micron has sold out of our HBM output in calendar 2025. We are seeing strong demand for our HBM supply in 2026 and are in discussions with our customers on agreements for their calendar 2026 HBM demand.”

They also highlighted that they have initiated volume shipments to the third large HBM3E customer. “We are making good progress on additional platform and customer qualifications with HBM. Micron's HBM3E 8-high is designed into NVIDIA's GB200 system, and our HBM3E 12-high is designed into the GB300. In fiscal Q2, we initiated volume shipments to our third large HBM3E customer and anticipate additional customers over time. We expect multibillion dollars in HBM revenue in fiscal 2025.”

We covered this in the past when we stated in our December post-earnings update that “Management pointed out they are raising their view of server unit percentage growth for the current year and they anticipate server unit growth to continue in 2025. The CEO also stated that HBM has exceeded their plans due to solid execution on yield and capacity ramps.” We also stated that the next catalyst would be the availability of HBM4 in CY2026.

Similarly, we highlighted during the September post-earning update that the company delivered strong results due to robust data center/HBM revenue. We informed our members in June 2024 that that HBM is sold out for calendar year 2025 with pricing already contracted for.

Market Outlook

Management increased the 2025 DRAM bit shipment forecast from mid-teens percentage range to mid-to high teens percentage range due to the growing adoption of AI in smartphone & PC devices and HBM is also a strong contributor to the bit demand growth.

“Now turning to our market outlook. Calendar 2024 DRAM bit demand growth was in the high teens, consistent with our prior expectations. Calendar 2024 NAND bit demand growth was approximately 10%, slightly below our previous view of low double digits. We forecast calendar 2025 DRAM bit demand growth in the mid- to high teens percentage range and NAND in the low double-digit percentage range. Over the medium term, we expect industry bit demand growth of mid-teens CAGR for both DRAM and NAND.”

HBM4E to consume higher silicon

Management mentioned that HBM4E will consume 4x the amount of silicon compared to D5. “As noted before, HBM3E consumes 3x the amount of silicon compared to D5 to produce the same number of bits. Looking ahead, we expect the trade ratio to increase with HBM4 and then again with HBM4E when we expect it to exceed 4:1. The sustained and significant increase in silicon intensity for the foreseeable future contributes to tightness for industry leading-edge node supply and constraints capacity for non-HBM products.”

Growth in the second half of CY2025

Management mentioned that the transition from 8-high offering to 12-high offerings will increase revenue in the second half of the year due to premium pricing. Also, shipping to the third large customer will also lead to a revenue increase in the second half of the year. However, revenue growth rate has peaked for now and will decelerate in the year's second half.

Q: CJ Muse (Analyst)

“Very helpful. And a quick follow-up. You revised your HBM industry revenue outlook higher. Curious if there's a framework on how you're thinking about kind of first half versus second half for the industry?

A: Sanjay Mehrotra (CEO)

Of course, the revenue in the second half as you go from 8-high to 12-high continues to go up because 12-high will be carrying a certain premium over 8-high. So if we have projected more than $35 billion for calendar year 2025 and a bigger portion of that in second half of calendar '25 versus first half. And more than $35 billion, of course, is the industry TAM for HBM that we have referred to here.

And I'll just point out that, of course, with respect to HBM, there is expansion of HBM customer base taking place. Micron itself, now we are shipping to a third large customer that we have begun shipping our products to. So that also is contributing to the growth in HBM revenue in the second half as the customer base expands.”

Financials:

Revenue growth momentum eases

FQ2 revenue grew by 38.3% YoY and down (-7.5%) QoQ to $8.05 billion, beating estimates by 2%, driven by strong HBM revenue that grew more than 50% sequentially to over $1 billion.

FQ2 DRAM revenue grew by 47% YoY to $6.1 billion, representing 76% of total revenue. DRAM revenue was down (- 4%) QoQ, with bit shipments decreasing in the high single-digit percentage range and prices increasing in the mid-single-digit percentage range because of improving portfolio mix.

The company’s DRAM revenue was down sequentially due to the decrease in bit shipments. However, management expects bit shipment to increase in Q3, which will likely help with the DRAM revenue recovery.

FQ2 NAND revenue grew by 18% YoY to $1.9 billion, representing 23% of total revenue. NAND revenue was down (-17%) QoQ, with bit shipments modestly higher and prices decreasing in the high-teens percentage range. FQ2 bit NAND bit shipments exceeded management expectations, driven by higher consumer-oriented shipments. Management anticipates growth in DRAM and NAND bit shipments in FQ3.

The company expects strong growth to continue in the next quarter with revenue guidance of $8.8 billion, representing YoY growth of 29.2% and 9.3% QoQ growth at the midpoint, beating estimates by 3.8%. However, revenue growth rate has peaked for now and will decelerate in the calendar year's second half.
Analysts expect revenue to grow 25.3% YoY to $9.71 billion in FQ4 and 23.8% growth in FQ1.
For FY2025 ending August, analysts expect revenue to grow 39.1% YoY to $34.93 billion and 28.6% growth to $44.93 billion in FY2026.

Strong YoY Margin Expansion, Yet Consumer Weighs on Margins

The company’s margins are improving on a YoY basis driven by operating leverage. However, margins are down sequentially, and the company’s gross margins were below guidance due to a higher mix of consumer products and lower NAND prices. This was partially offset by high-value DRAM portfolio mix. Management expects gross margins to be down sequentially in FQ3 due to higher consumer mix, NAND underutilization charges, and NAND pricing weakness. This was also highlighted by the management during the Wolfe Conference last month. It was further clarified during the earnings call Q&A that gross margins will improve in FQ4.

Q: Harlan Sur (Analyst)

"Back in mid-February at an investor conference, I know the team had walked us through the dynamics on a weaker gross margin profile during the May quarter. That's playing out, but you did anticipate an improved gross margin profile beyond this quarter, fiscal Q3. So is that still the case that we should see gross margin improvements maybe starting in fiscal Q4 and potentially beyond? And is that a possible data center and your consumer-related products? Is that across total DRAM and your NAND segments? Any color here would be great.

A: Mark Murphy (CFO)

Sure, Harlan, this is Mark. I'll take that. So let me just make some comments about the third quarter. It is down sequentially, as we had indicated in the conference. And again, as we said in the conference down primarily due to higher mix of consumer-oriented volumes, lower CQ1 pricing on consumer-oriented markets and industry and can just generally, all that partially offset by higher HBM. We do see — while down, conditions have improved since those public comments. And the updated view is reflected in the guide today.

Now we're not providing guidance on the fourth quarter. However, we do expect gross margin to be up somewhat. There's always tailwinds and headwinds. As you know, on tailwinds, we do expect market conditions to improve. We do expect HBM and other high-value products to grow and contribute to mix improvement…. So in short, we would expect fourth quarter margins to be up somewhat from third quarter.”

FQ2 gross margin was 36.8% compared to 18.5% in the same period last year and 38.4% in the FQ1. It was lower than the guidance of 37.5% due to a higher consumer mix. Management guidance for the next quarter is 35.5%.
FQ2 adjusted gross margin was 37.9% compared to 20% in the same period last year and 39.5% in the FQ1, missing guidance of 38.5%. Management guidance for next quarter is 36.5%.
FQ2 operating margin was 22% compared to 3.3% in the same period last year and 25% in FQ1, driven by operating leverage. Management guide for the next quarter is 21.1%.
FQ2 adjusted operating margin was 24.9% compared to 3.5% in the same period last year and 27.5% in the FQ1. Management guide for the next quarter is 23.7%.
FQ2 net margin was 19.7% or $1.58 billion compared to 13.6% or $793 million in the same period last year. FQ2 adjusted net margin was 22.1% or $1.78 billion compared to $476 million or 8.2% of revenue in the same period last year.

Adj.EPS growth of 271%

FQ2 GAAP EPS grew by 98.6% YoY to $1.41, beating estimates by 11.4%. Adjusted EPS grew by 271.4% YoY to $1.56, beating estimates by 9.5% driven by strong operating leverage.

Management adjusted EPS guide is $1.57 for FQ3, representing a YoY growth of 153.2%, beating estimates by 3.3%.
Analysts expect adjusted EPS to grow 73.7% YoY to $2.05 in FQ4 and 41.3% growth in FQ1.
For the FY2025 ending August, analysts expect adjusted EPS to grow 419.6% YoY to $6.76 and 64.7% YoY growth to $11.12 in FY2026. However, due to a higher consumer revenue mix and lower NAND prices, analysts have reduced the estimates significantly for this FY2025 from 783% expected growth in June 2024 to the current expected growth of 420%, with some of the growth being pushed to the FY2026.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

The company’s cash flow improved, driven by higher profits.

FQ2 operating cash flow margin was 49% or $3.94 billion compared to 20.9% or $1.22 billion in the same period last year.
FQ2 adjusted free cash flow margin was 10.6% or $857 million compared to ($29 million) or (-0.5%) in the same period last year.
FQ2 capex was $4.06 billion, up 193% YoY. The company received government subsidies of $963 million (23.7% of capex) in FQ2 compared to $149 million in the same period last year. Management expects the FQ3 capex to be over $3.0 billion and the FY2025 capex to be about $14 billion. Management mentioned in the earnings call that the majority of the FY2025 capex is to support the multiyear facility investments for DRAM and HBM manufacturing, including the Idaho fab, Singapore HBM advanced packaging facility, and Taiwan DRAM test facility.
Earlier in December last year, the U.S. Department of Commerce finalized the $6.17 billion government subsidies under the Chips Act. It will disburse the funds based on Micron’s completion of project milestones. The $6.17 billion funding package, representing roughly 5% of the total estimated capital expenditure in New York and Idaho, will support the construction of two fabs in Clay, New York, and one in Boise, Idaho. This funding is part of Micron's $125 billion capex plan for both states over the next two decades.
The company had cash and investments of $9.6 billion and debt of $14.36 billion compared to $8.74 billion and $13.8 billion in the previous quarter.
During FQ2, Micron extended the debt maturities through a $1 billion 10-year senior note offering and a $1.7 billion term loan, with proceeds used to pay down notes maturing in 2026 and the previous term loan balance.
The company’s inventory increased to $9.0 billion from $8.71 billion in FQ1 to support the strong AI-demand. Management mentioned that the inventory levels will normalize in a couple of quarters.

Business Units

Compute and Networking (CNBU)Compute and Networking (CNBU)

Compute and Networking revenue grew by 109% YoY and 4% QoQ to $4.56 billion. For the third consecutive quarter, CNBU revenue reached a new quarterly record, driven by a more than 50% sequential increase in HBM revenue to over $1 billion. However, the CNBU revenue growth decelerated from 153% and 152% growth in the last two quarters and is likely tied to the Blackwell delays.

The company’s CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, highlighted in the earnings call, “Our HBM shipments were ahead of our plans, demonstrating strong execution of our ongoing ramp. The combination of our revenue from high-capacity DRAM modules and our industry-leading LPDRAM for the data center also exceeded the $1 billion milestone for the quarter.”

Mobile (MBU)Mobile (MBU)

FQ2 Mobile Business Unit revenue was down (-33%) YoY and (-30%) sequentially to $1.07 billion due to inventory corrections.

Embedded (EBU)Embedded (EBU)

FQ2 Embedded business unit revenue was down (-8%) YoY and (-3%) QoQ to $1.03 billion. It was lower due to inventory correction in the company’s automotive customers. The CEO highlighted in the earnings call that the customers are nearing the completion of inventory adjustments. “Automotive OEMs, industrial and consumer embedded customers are in the later stages of adjusting their inventory levels. In automotive, which comprises the largest portion of our EBU revenue, memory and storage content per car continues to increase as AI-enabled in-vehicle infotainment systems become more enriched and driver assistance functions become more capable.”

Storage (SBU)Storage (SBU)

Revenue for the Storage business unit was $1.4 billion, up 54% YoY and down (-20%) sequentially. The sequential decline in SBU revenue was driven primarily by lower storage investments from data center customers after several quarters of very strong growth and the overall NAND industry pricing.

Earnings Call Notes:

AI PCs and Mobile

Management expects mid-single-digit unit PC growth in calendar 2025, with a stronger second half. AI PCs require increased DRAM, with a minimum of 16GB of DRAM compared to 12GB content last year. They expect smartphone unit volume growth in calendar 2025 to remain at low single-digit percentages and customer inventories are improving. AI smartphones require DRAM capacities of 12GB or higher compared to 8GB in last year’s models.

“We expect the PC market to grow mid-single digits in unit terms in calendar 2025, with growth weighted to the second half of calendar 2025. The Windows 10 end of life in October 2025, combined with an aging installed base and the desire amongst customers to ensure that their PC hardware specs can support compelling AI applications in the future, are key catalysts that drive this growth.

AI PCs required a minimum of 16 gigabytes of DRAM, with many models requiring even higher memory versus the average 12 gigabyte PC content last year. During the quarter, we sampled our 16-gigabit 1 gamma-based D5 products to PC clients. In NAND, we launched our Gen9 based 4600 performance SSDs, the fastest in the world for the client market, and completed qualifications of our 2650 mainstream SSDs at multiple PC OEMs.

Turning to mobile. Our expectations for smartphone unit volume growth in calendar 2025 remain at low single-digit percentages. Smartphone customer inventory dynamics have played out as anticipated, leading to mobile DRAM and NAND bit shipment growth in our fiscal Q3. AI adoption continues to be a significant driver for increased mobile DRAM demand.

AI-capable flagship phones increasingly feature DRAM capacities of 12 gigabyte or higher compared to the 8 gigabyte in last year's models. Smartphone OEMs are using Micron's industry-leading 9.6 gigabit per second LP5X DRAM to improve AI performance, delivering up to 20% more tokens per second than those using legacy speed grades on the same SoC.”

Tariffs

Management mentioned that they plan to pass the costs of tariffs to the customers. China accounted for 12% of FY2024 revenue. “On tariffs, Micron serves as the U.S. importer of record for a very limited volume of products that would be subject to newly announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. We continue to monitor the possibility of future tariffs and are prepared to work with our customers and suppliers to understand future tariff effects and supply chain options that may arise. Where tariffs do have an impact, we intend to pass those costs along to our customers.”

Valuation:

The company is trading at a P/E ratio of 22.7 and a forward P/E ratio of 13.6. Micron’s P/S ratio is 3.4 and a forward P/S ratio is 3.0. It is trading below its five-year average P/S ratio of 3.7. A few reasons for Micron’s low valuation are likely due to memory being more cyclical and Micron seeing fierce competition with SK Hynix and Samsung, which leads to more commoditized pricing. More recently, the increasing consumer revenue mix and lower NAND prices have also led to analysts reducing estimates, which have also led to lower valuations.

Conclusion

Micron beat the top-line and bottom-line analyst consensus estimates. However, the consumer revenue mix, NAND underutilization charges, and NAND pricing weakness weigh on the gross margins.

This stock would be a breakout buy rather than a counter-trend entry as we’d like to see the market begin to recognize Micron as being more secular once the HBM-related revenue begins to rival the other more cyclical revenue segments.

I/O Fund Equity Analyst Royston Roche contributed to this report.

Recommended Reading:

2024 Full Year Audited Returns

Posted on March 28, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

It is with great pleasure that I present the I/O Fund’s 2024 audited returns of 34.6%, leading to a spectacular outperformance of 219% since inception when compared to popular tech ETFs. When compared to the broader indexes S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, we outperform by 109% and 82% respectively, since our portfolio’s inception in May of 2020.

These have been some of the most variable years on record when considering the immense volatility tech has seen, the market’s rotation out of cloud and into AI – which required meticulous analysis to capture, plus a strong two-year back-to-back performance from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. This has made it particularly challenging for stock pickers to compete. Yet, the I/O Fund was able to defy the odds to deliver what is one of the highest 5-year cumulative performances on record.

We issued a press release on Wednesday entitled “I/O Fund Dominates Tech Sector with a Staggering 210% Cumulative Return in Less than 5 Years”

I/O Fund Offers a Staggering Lead in the Tech Sector

*While our track record has been exemplary, past results are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Please read our terms and conditions here.terms and conditions here.

I/O Fund’s cumulative returns of 210% notably outperformed some of the most popular tech stocks ETFs like XLK by 65%. Source: YCharts and InsiderMonkeyYCharts and InsiderMonkey

Further, when we combine the entire universe of ETFs with Mutual Funds, which is another long option for investors yet are not exclusive to tech nor do they hedge, we would rank #8.

2024 was the Year of Consistency:

The positions that beat the indexes this year include: NFLX, CRWD, NET, BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, COIN, SMCI, NVDA.

Highlights included holding Nvidia as a top position and then trimming ¼ of the position on June 13th with SMH topping in July. We further discussed our strategy to reduce exposure to AI semis in Q3 and Q4, spotting sector-wide weakness, which helped to minimize losses.

We kept Bitcoin as a top 3 allocation while providing 7 buy alerts, all of which closed the year up 50%+. Our combined realized returns on Super Micro were 243% while utilizing risk management to sidestep volatility. CrowdStrike was similar, where we captured outsized 87%, yet closed the position before the stock saw a volatile drawdown. We also closed Solana for a 99% quick gain and Netflix for a 164% realized gain in 2024. You can find more highlights on our 2024 trading history in Knox’s section below.

A Few More Important Stats About our Performance:

The I/O Fund outperformed the S&P 500 by 109% and outperformed the Nasdaq-100 by 82%.
In 2024, the I/O Fund returned 35%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 11% and both the Nasdaq-100 and Invesco QQQ ETF by 10%.
Since inception, the I/O Fund has maintained a lead of up to 219% over institutional technology portfolios.
In 2024, I/O Fund posted a 35% return, significantly outperforming popular tech ETFs, which recorded an 8% return over the same period. On a cumulative basis, the results translate to a remarkable 219% outperformance compared to competing tech portfolios.

2024 Winning Positions Overview:

By Knox Ridley

We had 10 positions outperform the NASDAQ-100 in 2024. Half of these positions were held for the entire year, while some were tactically closed, which allowed us to log a realized gain that exceeded the NASDAQ-100.

Positions that we held for the entirety of 2024 that exceeded the NASDAQ-100:

NVDA +172%
Bitcoin +121%
Ethereum +47%
Chainlink +34%
NET +32%

Positions that we tactically opened and/or closed in 2024 for a realized gain that surpassed the NASDAQ-100's 2024 return:

Super Micro: +243%
Solana: +99%
Coinbase +67%
Netflix +164%
CrowdStrike +87%

*Calculations are based on the average opening price and the average closing price for each position.

Overview of 2024’s Biggest Winners

Nvidia +172%

Bitcoin +121%

Super Micro +243%

Netflix +164%

Solana +99%

While Bitcoin was clearly in a strong uptrend, we decided to play the momentum in crypto through Solana. With an opening average cost basis and closing average cost basis in 2024, we logged a relatively quick 99% in less than a year.

CrowdStrike +87%

We opened CrowdStrike in early 2023 and began taking gains in early 2024. We ended up closing the entire position for a realized gain of 87%, just before the vertical drop took CRWD down 41% from our final closing price. This was due to the fundamentals team listening closely to the earnings call and sensing weakness.

Our Performance:

Below is the engagement letter from the firm that reviews and verifies our performance. Our terms and conditions with the accounting firm state that this engagement letter is to only be shared with paying customers to avoid advertising another firm’s IP and services. For that reason, our performance letter resides behind our paywall.

The I/O Fund owns the performance review and we do not authorize our customers or any person on our site to share a confidential engagement letter or performance review outside of our paywall. As the owner of the report, we will at times market our performance number outside of the paywall.

With that said, any paying customer can access the engagement letter which is posted on io-fund.com for this purpose.

Key Points on How the I/O Fund is Different

One of the most advanced forms of portfolio management is real-time trade alerts. This places immense pressure on a portfolio manager as the stakes are high to record what you do every second in real-time. To voluntarily choose to have the highest level of accountability in retail is nearly unheard of, yet registered fund managers are required to do this and file their stock trades.
Logging trades in real-time also places immense pressure on the analysts at the I/O Fund, as well, who are not allowed to simply choose a stock but must also determine the allocation for the stock. After recommending a stock, the analysts must help the portfolio manager actively manage the position, which can change at any time.
Hedging up to 100% of a portfolio is also a large psychological hurdle, and traditionally a risky one. Markets spend the vast majority of their history in uptrends, for one. Secondly, the amount you can lose on a short is literally infinite, to where one’s downside risk is capped at 0 on the long side. Although hedging must be reviewed with each Member’s financial advisor, many of our members simply use the information as a critical risk-on and risk-off signal.

These are rare offerings in stock investing research. However, since day one – we refused to publish reports without risk management.

It’s only natural for stock investing research sites to want to ease the pressure of having to report in real-time – yet we do not think investors should accept a lower standard than professionals who must report their trades.

Verified Returns

How the I/O Fund Sets a High Bar for Accountability

In addition to this, we use an auditor from a large firm in San Francisco to mathematically review and verify the performance of our I/O Fund portfolio trading account and crypto account. The process is quite extensive and it takes up to four months to complete. This costs $4,500 per audit and we’ve completed six audits for a total of $27,000 spent on this process. Accountability is expensive but we feel it’s worth it.

Conclusion:

We started with a cloud-focused portfolio in 2020 that captured the hypergrowth market during the pandemic, then we utilized risk management to stave off losses in 2021 and 2022, before pivoting to a high AI allocation of 45% entering 2023.

This past year, in 2024, we’ve proven our consistency by offering ten positions that beat both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 compared to seven positions the previous year. We held large allocations in some of the market’s biggest winners in 2024 (Nvidia, Bitcoin, Super Micro in H1, Coinbase in H2, plus crypto).

The Consistency of 2024 helped propel our cumulative return from 131% in less than four years to 210% in less than five years. Not only do we easily place in the 90th percentile but we are in the top 10 in nearly every category out of thousands of portfolio options. When looking at hedge funds, we would place as #2 with our annualized return of 27.6% — beating out some of Wall Street’s best investors.

The I/O Fund's mission since inception has been to provide institutional-level research and tools to retail investors, and the results have shattered our expectations. What we have accomplished is no small feat, and our team reflects on these results with immense gratitude.

Many of you supported us from early days and stuck with us through immense volatility – we hope your unwavering commitment to us has been rewarded many times over. Others are newer to our site and have stumbled upon a more polished team than when we first started (or should I say, a more humbled team). If you are newer to the I/O Fund, then I can assure you that no team takes their role more seriously in terms of delivering our very best every single day.

We want to thank you for your business and your vote of confidence in our abilities. We are honored to officially close out 2024 and to now turn our full attention to delivering for you in 2025 and beyond.

Please note, past results are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Reference our terms and conditions here.terms and conditions here.

New Discovery Tier – Now Live:

We are pleased to announce the launch of our new Discovery tier, an endeavor we have been diligently working toward for nearly a year. Our team is limited in the number of positions we can own with 10 positions at a minimum, and up to 20 positions maximum. We also may have a different risk profile than many of our members, which means that we have passed on some notable winners over the years. There are many strong-performing stocks in the market to consider and our new tier is designed to surface these ideas so our members can access a wider range of research that goes well beyond the I/O Fund’s portfolio.

Here is some coverage we have published over the past month on the Discovery tier:

A high beta stock with 21X growth potential from supplying power quickly to key AI hyperscalers
Power management integrated circuits (PMICs) company with signals for strong growth in H2
Nuclear and natural gas supplier for AI data centers
Coming soon: Biggest incoming IPO in the AI sector

Current members can get 50% off Discovery for just $199 through April 10th with code SAVE200DISC. Click the link to send a request to Customer Service to subscribe. Link

Recommended Reading:

Thank you for joining I/O Fund Essentials!

Posted on March 27, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

We think you’ll find our service provides a competitive edge in technology, the world’s most valuable and rewarding industry.

The I/O Fund strives to offer high conviction analysis from one of the best tech analysts in the world, Beth Kindig, along with an actively managed portfolio with real-time trade alerts. Our audited performance proves that I/O Fund competes with and often beats Wall Street's highest-performing funds.

For just $99/year with I/O Fund Essentials you will receive:

A fully managed, 3 stock portfolio of our highest conviction tech ideas. If we decide to add to the position or trim it, this information will be provided in real-time.
Two monthly reports, including (1) fundamental analysis from Lead Tech Analyst Beth Kindig and (1) technical analysis from our Portfolio Manager, Knox Ridley.

For the more advanced investor, our goal is simple – we want to own stocks like Google, Apple, and Amazon long before they become one of the most valuable companies in the world. Our premium memberships are designed to educate and manage risk in these high conviction stocks that we believe are early to major tech trends.

Upgrade at any time to receive a fully managed portfolio of 10-15 stocks including 3 cryptocurrencies, real-time trade notifications, and weekly deep dives. These plans start at $549 and $849. Email premium@io-fund.com for an Essentials Discount of $100 off either Pro or Advanced.premium@io-fund.com for an Essentials Discount of $100 off either Pro or Advanced.

Here’s a breakdown of what you get with each plan:

Notable wins from the I/O Fund team:

The I/O Fund has cumulative returns of 210% and a lead over institutional technology portfolios of as much as 219% since inception.
In 2024, the I/O Fund returned 35%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 11% and both the Nasdaq-100 and Invesco QQQ ETF by 10%.
We had 10 positions outperform the NASDAQ-100 in 2024.
We also closed an altcoin for a 99% quick gain and Netflix for a 164% realized gain in 2024.
Our combined realized returns on Super Micro were 243% while utilizing risk management to sidestep volatility.
We opened CrowdStrike in early 2023 and began taking gains in early 2024. We ended up closing the entire position for a realized gain of 87%, just before the vertical drop took CRWD down 41% from our final closing price.
We posted returns of 57% in 2023. If we were an ETF, mutual fund or hedge fund, our ranking would be #4 in the Wall Street Journal’s Winners’ Circle ranking of 1,191 funds.
In 2023, we had five positions with returns over 100% and seven positions beat the Nasdaq. Many were held at high allocations.
The I/O Fund had a 45% allocation to AI going into 2023, one of the highest on record. Today, the AI allocation is higher with many lesser-known names.
Issued 9 trade alerts for Nvidia under $20. Provided over 25 analyses on Nvidia’s AI thesis before the market caught on.
Nearly impeccable record on Bitcoin, buying between $7K to $10K, trimming at $58K, buying again $15K to $16K for the rally to $100K+. All entries and exits are sent as trade alerts.
We were early to the cloud in 2019, then rotated into AI in 2022 with a 45% allocation in 2023.
Released an automated hedge in 2022 to stave off losses during a historic selloff in the tech sector.
Picked the leading sectors in 2021: semiconductors and blockchain.
Picked the two top-performing cloud stocks in 2021 (DDOG and ASAN)
Picked the best-performing asset with a large market cap in 2021 (ETH)
Picked the best stock in the S&P 500 in 2019 (ROKU)
Has beaten other tech-focused funds in every audit since the portfolio’s inception.

What you can expect from the I/O Fund Essentials Plan:

Institutional-Level Research Monthly

You will receive original analysis by Beth Kindig, Knox Ridley, and Royston Roche monthly, along with an actively managed 3 stock portfolio. We are confident that nothing like the I/O Fund team’s research exists outside of institutions. Knox’s technical analysis perfectly complements Beth’s and Royston’s fundamental research, giving you the best research on the market.

High-quality, timely analysis and updates

As a member of I/O Fund Essentials, you’ll get an email notification as soon as our analysis is posted so you can stay up to date with the latest research from our team.

What you can expect from the I/O Fund Pro Plan:

Weekly Tech Stock Analysis, includes fundamental analysis from Lead Tech Analyst Beth Kindig.
Premium library of institutional-level research and analysis, including fundamental stock analysis, deep dive research into current tech trends and the companies we believe are setup to benefit from these trends.
Quarterly webinars to discuss our positions. We also identify trends/catalysts we are eyeing to fill our new idea pipeline.
A completely Transparent Portfolio made up of growth tech stocks and some cryptocurrencies.

What you can expect from the I/O Fund Advanced Plan:

Weekly Webinars on macro, the broad market, as well as buy/sell targets for each of our positions, plus quarterly portfolio reviews on the growth tech stocks we are interested in.
Technical Analysis on all I/O Fund stocks and Broad Markets, with charts on all major US markets, analysis of inflation and growth, as well as bonds, commodities, futures and more! We use these markets to help better understand the macro landscape, which guides our buys/sells.
A Completely Transparent Portfolio made up of growth tech stocks PLUS crypto that is actively managed by one of the best growth Portfolio Managers in the business!
Trade Alerts are sent in real time directly to your phone via SMS and email.
NEW! Automated Hedge with advanced signals to help spot approaching risk in the markets, with a 72% win rate going back to 2003 with only 45 signals triggered.

Ready for more? Here’s what you're missing from I/O Fund Advanced:

1. Fully Transparent Portfolio

I/O Fund Advanced has full access to a live portfolio with approximately 15 long-term positions. This portfolio is the culmination of all analysis with a minimum time horizon of +5 years. Our highest convictions can be found listed by percentage of allocation. Similar to Wall Street funds, we vote on our convictions with real money and full transparency.

One unique benefit to our site is that we continually look for good entries into stocks we recommend, as well as places to trim when the broad market appears to be risky. We do not simply give blanket buy recommendations on stocks we covered years ago rather we transparently show you our risk management strategies in real-time.

2. Institutional-Level Research at your Fingertips

You will have full access to a library of research and original analysis by Beth Kindig, Knox Ridley, and Royston Roche on this site. We are confident that nothing like Beth and Knox’s research exists outside of institutions, and many institutions follow our research. Knox’s technical analysis perfectly complements Beth’s fundamental research, giving you the best research on the market.

3. Real-Time Trade Notifications and Advanced Market Signals

We raised the bar by offering real-time trade notifications in our Advanced Market Signals room and every time we enter and exit a position. Each buy or sell is discussed by our portfolio manager at the time of execution through forum posts and webinars. We offer the highest level of transparency possible so you will know if the I/O Fund team is buying, selling or if we feel the market requires no action at all. We are not licensed financial advisors, rather we offer the real-time trades we do on our portfolio to help our Members gauge the current market.

4. Markets Update

Markets are dynamic and fluid systems. They can and do go down on good news and up on bad news and act in seemingly irrational ways. Because of this, we offer regular market updates with key price levels, probable scenarios and likely outcomes based on our intermarket analysis. We also will offer periodic updates on current events, as well as pre-earnings analysis for all of our positions.

5. Webinars

I/O Fund Advanced offers webinars to go over key positions, any entries we are planning and/or exits plus 1-hour intensive deep dives, followed by a Q&A. You’ll get transparent information on the positions we plan to add to, the positions we plan to cut back on, and our thoughts on the market today.

NVIDIA’s GB200s for up to 27 Trillion Parameter Models: Scaling Next-Gen AI Superclusters

Posted on March 21, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Supercomputers and cutting-edge AI data centers are fueling the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Large-scale systems need comprehensive builds that are increasingly integrated to meet the evolving demands of complex workloads. As AI applications become more sophisticated, the need for infrastructure that's not only incredibly powerful but also energy-efficient is growing exponentially. Innovations like NVIDIA’s GB200 are designed to deliver the scalability needed for next-generation AI superclusters.

At the 2025 NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference2025 NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference (GTC), VP and Chief Architect of Systems, Mike Houston, and Senior Director of Applied Systems Engineering, Julie Bernauer, discussed large-scale systems design principles in their May 18 presentation, “Next-generation at Scale Compute in the Data Center.”

NVIDIA’s First Rack-Scale Product is the GB200 Superchip

The NVIDIA Grace Blackwell 200 (GB200) Superchip combines two Blackwell GPUs and one Grace CPU. It’s NVIDIA’s first rack-scale product. The NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 is a configuration and rack-scale, liquid-cooled AI computing platform, which is purpose-built for AI training and inferencing, handling up to 27 trillion parameters for generative AI models. The GB200 includes base components like Grace Hopper compute trays, NVLink switches (a connector in the middle of the rack linking all GPUs) and cable cartridges (literally miles of cables in the back to tie everything together). The design includes quantum switches for InfiniBand (a high-speed network for linking clusters) and spectrum switches for Ethernet.

AI 101: What are Clusters and Superclusters?

Clusters 101: are a network of independent computers (called nodes) connected by a high-speed network. A cluster serves as a unified resource, as they are separate machines configured to work together to act as a single powerful computing system. They are often used for parallel processing, which breaks down a large task into smaller parts distributed across the nodes, enabling faster processing than just a single computer could do. A key benefit of a node is high availability, meaning if one node (computer) fails, the other nodes can take over its workload, ensuring that the system remains operational. High-performance compute (HPC) clusters are used for tasks like research, scientific simulations and AI training.

Superclusters 101: are very large clusters that may be comprised of hundreds to thousands of GPUs through many data centers. For example, Elon Musk’s xAI supercomputer Colossus, powered by 100,000 NVIDIA GPUs, is definitely a supercluster.

DGX started as single machines for AI but evolved into clusters for AI training. Pre-training can involve superclusters, but post-training can still involve 16,000 GPUs with smaller setups for fine-tuning and inference using trained AI to answer questions.

NVIDIA AI & HPC Platform architecture diagram, featuring GB200 NVL72 SuperPOD.
Source: NVIDIA

Optimizing the Benefits of Rack-Scale Architecture with GB200

NVIDIA’s GB200 NVL72 is a rack-scale system. Rack-scale designs a whole rack as one big, coordinated unit, not just random machines stuck together. Rack scale refers to integrating and compressing systems that may span across multiple servers, storage and networking devices onto a single server rack. GB200 can replace or consolidate a large number of GPU compute servers. This provides many benefits, including:

Improved GPU Density: The GB200 NVL72 contains 72 Blackwell GPUs, and 36 Grace CPUs interconnected with NVLink, NVIDIA’s proprietary high-speed (130 TB/s) signaling interconnect that enables all 72 GPUs and 36 CPUs to act as a single massive GPU. It's designed to offer exceptional performance in AI training and inference for large language models (LLMs).
Performance: The GB200 delivers up to 720 petaFLOPs for AI training and 1.4 exaFLOPs for inference. Since all components are within proximity in a single rack, communication between components has much lower latency, which is especially beneficial in data-intensive tasks, reducing bottlenecks and improving data throughput.
Increased Efficiency: Rack-scale architecture allows for better utilization of hardware by pooling resources to optimize performance. Consolidating resources within a single rack reduces the need for separate units, saving space and power in the data center.
Easier Management: Centralized management of the entire rack's resources simplifies setup and maintenance, also enabling automation tools for scaling, provisioning and monitoring to reduce manual interventions.
Cost Efficient: Fewer servers, storage, networking equipment, physical space, cooling, and energy usage save money. As IO Fund discussed in its article “AI Power Consumption: Rapidly Becoming Mission-CriticalAI Power Consumption: Rapidly Becoming Mission-Critical," the GB200 is “expected to consume 2,700W”, which can add dramatically to operating expenses, especially without rack-scale architecture.
Future Proofing: Rack-scale architecture enables the integration of evolving technologies as components can be switched out, repaired and upgraded, enabling more adaptability for future growth.
Unified Power and Cooling: Housing multiple components within a single rack reduces the complexity of cooling systems and improves energy efficiency to lower operational costs.

Scaling Up AI Factories with DGX SuperPOD, Reference Architecture and Fabric

At the 2025 NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference (GTC), NVIDIA unveiled its next-generation DGX SuperPOD AI infrastructure. In the “Next-generation at Scale Compute in the Data Center” presentation, VP and Chief Architect of Systems, Mike Houston, and Senior Director of Applied Systems Engineering, Julie Bernauer, spoke about

The SuperPOD is NVIDIA’s all-in-one HPC solution designed to handle the massive computational needs of AI models and simulations. Grace Blackwell nodes are the building blocks of the SuperPOD. When scaling up clusters and superclusters, there are three factors to consider. Reference architecture is comprised of pre-tested system designs that serve as a blueprint for new data center deployments to ensure optimal installation and performance, accelerating time to the first token.

Fabric refers to the data center’s network infrastructure that connects all the servers and devices enabling them to seamlessly communicate with each other to reduce latency between components, especially GPUs. Cooling is critical in large data centers. Liquid cooling is preferred to manage the heat produced by thousands of GPUs as it is much more efficient for high-density platforms. Future GPU architectures aim for higher density and more efficient connectivity to push the limits of AI computation.

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NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra Fuels AI & HPC Innovation, Efficiency and Capability

Posted on March 21, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

NVIDIA’s groundbreaking hardware technologies and AI are unlocking unprecedented computational power. At the NVIDIA GTC 2025, NVIDIA unveiled its Blackwell Ultra GPU designed for the “Age of Reasoning” at its 2025 GPU Technology Conference (GTC). AI accelerators like GPUs are well suited for AI training and inference due to parallel processing, which allows for many calculations to be performed simultaneously. Only 30% of the top 500 supercomputers relied on accelerated computing; today, 80% do. The Green 500 ranking of supercomputers by energy efficiency shows an even more pronounced trend.

NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPU and GB300 NVL72 server key specifications included.

Source: NVIDIA

Blackwell Ultra GPUs for the Age of Reasoning

AI reasoning models emulate how the brain thinks to render a conclusion, popularized by OpenAI’s o1, Google’s Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking and DeepSeek’s R1 A1 models. Reasoning models improve responses to queries and more powerful GPUs improve the performance of these models. Blackwell Ultra GPUs are the next generation of the evolution of the GB200 bolstered by more inference power horsepower, packing 50% FLOPS at 1.1 exaFLOPS of FP dense compute.

NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra AI Factory Output chart shows 50x performance increase.

Source: NVIDIA

At the NVIDIA GTC 2025,NVIDIA GTC 2025, in his March 18 presentation titled, “The Next Frontier of AI Supercomputing: Efficiency With Unprecedented Capability”, NVIDIA’s Vice President of Hyperscale and HPC Computing, Ian Buck, stated, “Blackwell Ultra takes GB200’s 40x data center revenue opportunity to 50x”, citing faster token serving and higher throughput ideal for post-training for models like DeepSeek, which chomp through 100 trillion tokens.

NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 Unleashes Inference Horsepower

NVIDIA’s GB300 superchip combines two Blackwell Ultra GPUs with one Grace CPU. Blackwell Ultra GPUs can be used in the NVL72 rack server, which integrates 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs and 36 Grace CPUs. The NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 has a fully liquid-cooled rack-scale design. AI factories achieve 50X higher output for reasoning model inference with the NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 compared to the NVIDIA Hopper platform when used with the NVIDIA Quantum-X800 InfiniBand or Spectrum-X Ethernet paired with ConnectX-8 SuperNICS.

Blackwell Ultra’s Silicon Photonics Slashes Power Consumption by Up to 77%

NVIDIA’s Blackwell Ultra GPUs use co-packaged optics with silicon photonics, which integrates optical and silicon components onto a single substrate. This reduces power consumption by eliminating the need for external lasers and pluggable transceivers to achieve a significant reduction in power from 39 watts to 9 watts. Buck said that silicon photonics "… gives you that benefit from going from 30 watts of power down to only 9 watts of power for the same number of ports, and that's huge. It doesn't sound like 39 sounds a lot. But if you get 400,000 GPUs in an AI supercomputer, there's like 24 megawatts of lasers like so that's a lot of laser light that could be optimized and made more efficient.”

Beth Kindig, Lead Analyst at the IO Fund, pointed out in her “AI Power Consumption: Rapidly Becoming Mission-Critical”AI Power Consumption: Rapidly Becoming Mission-Critical” blog article that, "In my analysis last month on the Blackwell architecture, I made the argument these estimates are too low and that my firm expects we will see a $200 billion data center segment by end of CY2025 propelled forward by the B100, B200 and GB200, including the following points: “Taiwan Semi’s CoWos capacity, which is essential for Blackwell’s architecture, is estimated to rise to 40,000 units/month by the end of 2024, which is more than a 150% YoY increase from ~15,000 units/month at the end of 2023. Applied Materials has boosted its forecast for HBM packaging revenue from a prior view for 4X growth to 6X growth this year.””

The Next Generation CPU: Vera CPU: Grace’s Successor

NVIDIA’s next-generation CPU is Vera, a follow-on to Grace. With 88 cores (176 threads via spatial multithreading), Vera doubles Grace’s performance 2X, memory bandwidth by 5X per watt, and has a beefier chip-to-chip link for the upcoming Rubin GPU. “Every core talks to every other core,” Buck stressed, contrasting x86’s front-end focus. Vera’s 12-thread memory saturation trounces traditional CPUs, feeding GPUs for AI and HPC back-end tasks. Vera Rubin will launch in 2026. Vera Rubin NVL 144 will launch in the second half of 2026. FYI, Vera Rubin was an American astronomer who discovered dark matter. Rubin will mark the shift from HBM3/HBM3e to HBM4 and HBM4e for Rubin Ultra.

The Next Generation GPU Architecture: Rubin Ultra

NVIDIA will be launching Vera Rubin NVL 576 in the second half of 2027, which will have 14X the performance of GB300 NVL72. Rubin will have 1.2 ExaFLOPS of FP8 training compared to just 0.36 ExaFLOPS for B300, resulting in 3.3X compute performance. Bandwidth will improve from 8 TB/s to 13 TB/s. It will have 576 Rubin GPUs in a rack. Compute density is boosted by featuring four dies per package. Rubin Ultra NVL576 will have 365 TB of memory. The inference compute with FP4 rises to 15 ExaFLOPS with 5 ExaFLOPS of FP8 training compute. NVIDIA hinted the next-generation architecture after astronomer Vera Rubin will be named after theoretical physicist Richard Feynman.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own shares in NVDA at the time of writing and may own stocks pictured in the charts.

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Nvidia CEO Predicts AI Spending Will Increase 300%+ in 3 Years

Posted on March 20, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Nvidia has traversed choppy waters so far in 2025 as concerns have mounted about how the company plans to sustain its historic levels of demand. It began with DeepSeek in late January, was furthered by suppliers providing mixed signals on the timing of its premiere Blackwell NVL systems, then saw rumors of data center cancellations from a major customer in February.

What better place to address these issues than the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose, now dubbed the Super Bowl of AI. In the keynote held on Tuesday, Jensen Huang threw cold water on many of Wall Street’s assumptions, helping to alleviate concerns that demand for Nvidia GPUs will slow. In addition, I appeared on Fox News during the keynote to discuss why valuation is the great equalizer for this stock – along with my prediction for which quarter this year Nvidia will likely explode higher.

Nvidia Explains Why Cheaper Models Will Not Result in Less Compute

CEO Jensen Huang kicked the conference off with a wild remark about the current pace of progress in AI and the need for compute: “the scaling law of AI is more resilient, and in fact, hyper-accelerated, and the amount of computation we need at this point, as a result of agentic AI and reasoning, is easily 100x more than we thought we’d need at this time last year.”

The proof of this is easily seen as Blackwell chip sales have significantly outperformed Hopper year-over-year, with 3.6 million GPUs ordered so far in 2025 by the top 4 CSPs, versus a peak of 1.3 million Hopper GPUs in 2024. And this is just sales to the 4 largest CSPs, not including CoreWeave, Meta, xAI, Tesla, Nebius and many others that will be acquiring the chips. Huang added that “demand is much greater than that, obviously” — with the readthrough being this is what they’re able to ship, with demand that exceeds current capacity.

Nvidia’s Blackwell chip sales so far in 2025 have far exceeded Hopper’s peak. Source: NvidiaNvidia

Huang further illustrated that due to AI being able to reason beyond pretrained data, it now generates more tokens at 10X for a complex model, yet compute has to be 10X faster, resulting in 100X more computation.

“Well, it could generate 100x more tokens and you can see that happening, as I explained previously, or the model is more complex, it generates 10x more tokens. And in order for us to keep the model responsive, interactive so that we don't lose our patience waiting for it to think, we now have to compute 10x faster. And so 10x tokens, 10x faster, the amount of computation we have to do is 100x more easily. “

Models will need to generate more tokens, more quickly; meaning, AI remains a hardware problem that Nvidia is uniquely positioned to solve. The amount of computation required for inference is significantly higher than previously estimated – and it’s this demand that Nvidia’s future generations of GPUs will aim to meet.

Huang Forecasts Capex to Grow more than 300% in 3 Years

Nvidia has been a massive beneficiary of big tech capex budgets. Our firm has been tracking Big Tech capex as a proxy for AI spending since 2022, when I publicly stated in my newsletter: “However, it has been our stance for some time that Big Tech capex is the true leading indicator for AI semiconductor companies. Despite an enormous increase in Big Tech capex primarily driven by data centers, this line item does not get the attention it deserves in terms of follow-through to the semiconductor industry.”

We’ve continuously reminded our readers that data center capex provides visible read-throughs for Nvidia as it captures a lion’s share of that spend, and GTC provided another clear signal that not only is capex not slowingnot slowing as analysts fear, but is accelerating ahead of expectations.

At GTC, Huang pulled forward his view for $1 trillion in data center buildouts, saying he now sees the $1 trillion mark being reached as soon as 2028, ahead of prior expectations for 2030, representing an expansion of Nvidia’s addressable market.

Huang explained that he was confident that the industry would reach that figure “very soon” due to two dynamics – the majority of this growth accelerating as the world undergoes a platform shift to AI (the inflection point for accelerated computing), and an increase in awareness from the world’s largest companies that software’s future requires capital investments.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicts data center capex may reach $1 trillion as soon as 2028 as AI drives an inflection in computing. Source: NvidiaNvidia

Not only did Big Tech hit the $250 billion threshold in 2024, but these companies are on track to significantly exceed that in 2025, with Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon likely to spend close to $330 billion on capex this year. This is easily more than double what was spent in 2023, and as whole, that represents 33% YoY growth for the four purchasing Blackwell en masse.

Based on Huang’s prediction that data center expenditures could reach $1 trillion by 2028, that’s 3x growth in 3 years, and Big Tech alone (not even including Oracle and others) is already at one-third of that this year.

Big Tech’s capex is on track to approach $330 billion in 2025, up 33% YoY and more than double what was spent in 2023. Should Huang’s prediction prove true, it will represent 300% growth in the AI DC infrastructure market in three brief years.

China’s tech firms are also quickly raising capex to remain competitive in the global AI war, with Alibaba signaling capex of $52 billion over the next three years, more than what it has spent over the past decade, while Tencent outlined faster capex growth as it purchases more AI chips. I have said previously on Fox Business News that AI spending goes up in times of war – and neither China nor the US will want to lose to the other when it comes to AI dominance.

The I/O Fund specializes in covering lesser-known AI stocks on our research site with trade alerts and weekly webinars. Learn more here.The I/O Fund specializes in covering lesser-known AI stocks on our research site with trade alerts and weekly webinars. Learn more here.here.

Huang Explains Why Nvidia’s GPUs will Remain in High Demand

The breakthroughs we’ve seen in recent months and the rapid progression to complex problem solving and reasoning are increasing token usage by 100x and resulting in 10x faster computing power required to power the next stages of AI.

Tokens are the core factor going into the economics of an AI model – tokens for training represent the core part of the model costs, while tokens for inference generate revenue and thus profit. In a demo at GTC, Nvidia showed that for a complex problem with multiple constraints, a reasoning model like DeepSeek’s R1 would reason through the possibilities and answer with 20x more tokens using 150x more compute than a traditional model like Meta’s Llama 3.3-70B.

Translating this to the data center shows why Blackwell is in such high demand, to the tune that it has sold more than 2.5x as many GPUs already in 2025 versus Hopper’s peak. With Blackwell, which delivers up to 30x faster performance on inference versus the HGX H100, at 116 tokens per second per GPU versus 3.5 tokens per second, with 25x better energy efficiency. For a reasoning model, Huang explained that with Nvidia’s new Dynamo inference serving library, Blackwell can deliver up to 40x performance for reasoning models.

Here's why this is important. We explained last week in a brief writeup Unlocking the Future of AI Data Centers: Which Fuel Source Reigns Supreme in Efficiency? that power was the core chokepoint and the key enabler for AI’s future, as AI cannot exist without new sources of electricity to power its applications. Huang highlighted this at GTC, explaining that data centers are power limited, meaning revenues are power limited, hence why customers are looking for the most energy efficient chips they can get.

A 100MW data center (which is becoming more commonplace for hyperscalers) could house 1,400 H100 NVL8 racks and produce a maximum of 300 million tokens per second. With Blackwell, the same data center could house 600 racks but produce a maximum of 12 billion tokens per second, in theory a 40x increase. Increased inference performance leading to higher token outputs both lowers costs and increases revenue potential – Nvidia pointed out that DeepSeek-R1 based software optimizations improved token output and revenue generation by 25x and lowered inference costs by 20x.

While these maximums are theoretical in nature, the underlying notion that a data center can serve substantially more tokens at a lower cost supports Blackwell’s high demand, from a superior TCO profile and increased revenue generating ability.

Larger (and more) data centers expand the opportunity ahead for Nvidia – in the follow-up analyst call at GTC, Huang explained that “every gigawatt [of data center] is about $40 billion, $50 billion to Nvidia.”

According to CBRE, approximately 9.5 GW of data centers have gone under construction since the start of 2023. given an average construction timeline of 18 to 36 months (depending on constraints such as power supply), Huang’s comments imply a $380 billion to $475 billion revenue opportunity over the next 1 to 3 years just from that existing footprint under construction since 2023. We’ve already seen large data center announcements in 2025, with construction on the first $100 billion data center for Stargate commencing and Crusoe securing 4.5GW in natural gas for future data centers.

Upcoming GPU Roadmap Positions Nvidia to Capture $1T Data Center Spend

Nvidia is continuing to move at a break-neck pace when it comes to upgrading its GPU lineup, and maintaining this rapid release cycle is allowing it to continually pry away Big Tech’s capex year after year due to the performance, energy and TCO advantages each generation offers over the last.

At GTC, Huang unveiled Blackwell Ultra, the GB300 lineup, Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra, Blackwell’s successors, and an initial view at Feynman, Rubin’s successor.

GB300 NVL72 Delivers 1.5x Performance Upgrade

Notably, Nvidia provided little mention of the GB200 NVL72 during the keynote and offered no concrete evidence of shipping timelines for the superchip, opting to discuss Blackwell Ultra instead.

Blackwell Ultra, the GB300 NVL72, is due in the second half of 2025, with Huang expecting a smooth transition to the upgraded platform. The GB300 NVL72 provides up to a 1.5x performance boost versus the GB200 and delivers 50% more FP4 dense compute with a 50% boost to memory capacity, both of which will increase inference throughput.

Rubin Offers 3.3x Boost to GB300

Nvidia’s Vera Rubin NVL144 is scheduled for release in the second half of 2026, a year after the GB300 NVL72. Rubin is expected to be “drop-in compatible” to existing Blackwell infrastructure and offers up to a 3.3x boost to FP4 inference performance versus the GB300, with 3.6 exaFLOPs compared to 1.1 exaFLOPs.

Per chip, Rubin offers 50 petaFLOPs of FP4, up 2.5x from 20 petaFLOPs for Blackwell. Rubin also marks a shift to HBM4 memory, while remaining at 288 GB capacity.

Rubin Ultra Sees up to a 14X Increase in Inference Performance

Perhaps the largest boost in performance comes with Rubin Ultra NVL576, set to be released in the second half of 2027. Nvidia says the upcoming platform will offer up to 15 exaFLOPs of FP4 inference performance, a more than 4x increase from Rubin and nearly 14x increase from the GB300 in just two years.

While this leaves much for the supply chain to address in a short period of time (as we know Nvidia likes to break the limits of what’s possible), Nvidia is proving that it remains committed to the two things that matter most as AI continues to scale past generative AI to agentic AI and physical AI – it will continue to significantly boost inference performance via hardware improvements and software optimizations and reduce costs and thus TCO for its customers.

Put simply, data centers can handle more inference requests, process more tokens, and make more in revenue with each upgrade with the same power requirements.

Nvidia’s Valuation is the Equalizer

The major takeaway from GTC is that we’re only on the very brink of what AI can ultimately achieve. The need for compute will continue to rise as the industry progresses from generative AI to advanced reasoning models, to comprehensive AI agents, to autonomous vehicles and robotics where real-time inference is an absolute necessity for split-second decision making.

I spoke with Charles Payne on Fox Business News live during GTC to explain why I believe that the event’s major takeaway is that GPU demand is secular, not cyclical. I explained that Huang is “answering for investors why Nvidia’s GPUs will remain in demand. It does not matter if cheaper models are run on a single GPU, because ultimately, for these advancements to continue, we need to see that 10x in [faster] computing power, and we all know which company will serve that demand.”

Huang put it quite simply: “every single company only has so much power. And within that power, you have to maximize your revenues, not just your cost.”

While a lack of clarity and little mention of the GB200 NVL72’s timing during the keynote was likely a factor behind the muted stock price reaction, I would argue that Nvidia’s stock is absurdly cheap ahead of Q3 and Q4’s volume ramp.

Nvidia is trading at 26.5x forward earnings with growth of over 51% expected this year. Source: YChartsYCharts

Nvidia is currently trading at 26x this fiscal year’s earnings with earnings growth forecast to be 51.5% to $4.53, and at 20x next year's with 27% growth to $5.76. That 26x multiple is nearly a 25% discount to Nvidia’s average forward PE ratio over the past two years, and the same multiple it commanded before May 2023’s Hopper-driven breakout quarter.

Conclusion

Although there are many details from Nvidia’s GTC conference keynote worthy of discussion — Big Tech capex is the single most important point for investors as the sheer amount of capital pointed at data center infrastructure from a handful of companies is truly unparalleled in the history of the markets.

In the more immediate term, we have mixed signals from suppliers on the exact timing of Blackwell’s GB200 NVL72s. The premiere SKU was originally expected to ship in volume in Q1 and that did not happen. Going into the February earnings report, I stated my spidey senses were up in the article “Nvidia Suppliers Send Mixed Signals for Delays on GB200 Systems – What It Means for NVDA Stock and cautioned the earnings report was unlikely to offer the blowout that investors have become accustomed to. This was despite Wall Street growing exuberant into the print and aggressively raising price targets.

Later, I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley stated that if Nvidia breaks $123-$119, the stock would likely find support between $102 and $83. This scenario remains a possibility given the weakness we have seen in the broad market. With that said, we see any dips on Nvidia as a buying opportunity as the stars are aligning for Q3-Q4 in terms of volume shipments on the Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra GPUs.

The I/O Fund has a strong track record on this stock, discussing every twist and turn publicly for our free stock newsletter readers with documented gains of up to 4,100% as far back as 2018 based on a very-early AI thesis. The I/O Fund sends real-time trade alerts for every entry and exit, and our research members will be notified via text when we deem the risk/reward favorable and resume buying Nvidia. Learn more here.

Disclaimer: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own shares in NVDA at the time of writing and may own stocks pictured in the charts.

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Why Gas Pipelines Are the Unsung Heroes of AI Data Center Expansion

Posted on March 19, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

AI data centers could need up to 6 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2030 to meet the industry’s rabid energy demand, up from near zero today.
Natural gas is the top fuel used to generate electricity in the United States.
Some of the largest AI data center projects are located in regions with the densest gas pipelines, like Texas and Louisiana.

Artificial intelligence (AI) data centers are thirsting to feed their growing electricity demands. While there have been a lot of headlines regarding hyperscalers choosing to go with nuclear, new buildouts are still years away. When AI data centers need power now, they are left with the obvious choice of using the electrical grid or setting up co-location deals powered by the nation’s most abundant fuel, natural gas. Natural gas is the top fuel source for powering the electrical grid, accounting for 43% of the power in 2023. However, that fuel has to reach the data centers and that involves pipelines, lots of natural gas pipelines. For this reason, natural gas pipelines are the unsung heroes of AI data center expansion.

AI Data Centers Will Need 3 to 6 Billion Cubic Feet of Natural Gas Per Day by 2030

An October 2024 report from S&P Global found that the additional demand for natural gas to support data centers could reach three to six billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2030 as the industry struggles to find power for AI data center buildouts. The shocking part is that this figure starts from nearly zero bcf/d today, rising to upwards of 6 bcf/d by 2030.

The Three Types of Natural Gas Pipelines Need for AI Data Centers

Between early 2023 and mid-2024, the U.S. natural gas pipeline infrastructure saw a slight growth across all 3 types of pipelines:

Gathering Pipelines are used to transport the natural gas (or crude oil) collected from the wellheads at production sites to a central collection point like a storage facility, a processing plant or a transmission pipeline. Gathering pipelines are the smallest in diameter and operate at low pressure and flow. Gathering pipelines increased 0.97% between 2023 and mid-2024 from 496,051 miles to 500,854 miles.
Transmission Pipelines are the larger pipelines that move high volumes of natural gas from the production and processing plants, storage facilities, and distribution centers. These pipelines operate at pressures up to 1,000 pounds per square inch (PSI) and range from a hundred feet to hundreds of miles. Transmission pipelines increased 0.58% between 2023 and mid-2024 from 361,945 miles to 364,030 miles.
Distribution Pipelines are the smaller pipelines that deliver natural gas to end-users like individual homes, businesses and facilities. These operate at low pressure and can be made of plastic pipe instead of steel as underground pipes to smaller service lines connecting to properties. These are regulated by the local distribution companies (LDCs) that use them. Distribution pipelines grew 1.14% between 2023 to mid-2024 from 103,897 miles to 105,082 miles.

Location, Location, Location of Gas Pipelines is Key

AI data center construction tends to be concentrated in regions where gas pipeline infrastructure is densest. Here’s a breakdown of the top regions with dense and bountiful gas pipeline infrastructure:

Texas leads with over 58,500 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines. It’s the epicenter of the Permian Basin and connects to Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals and petrochemical hubs. Project Stargate is the $500 billion joint venture investment by Oracle, Softbank and OpenAI to grow America’s AI infrastructure by 2029. Its first AI data center is under construction in Abilene, Texas. Oracle CEO Larry Ellison stated. “the data centers are already under construction here in Texas. Each building is half a million square feet. There are 10 buildings currently being built, but that will expand to 20 other locations beyond the Abilene location, which is our first location.”

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Louisiana has over 18,900 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines. Meta Platforms announced it will be constructing a 2GW+ AI data center located in Richland Parish, Louisiana. The $10 billion project will be built on 2,250 acres, housing 4 million sq ft with nine buildings slated to be almost the size of Manhattan. Entergy will spend $3.2 billion to build a 1.5GW gas plant on Franklin Farms as part of a co-location deal and another build or acquire another 1.5GW of solar power elsewhere to offset the carbon emissions. Bitcoin miner Hut 8 is planning on building a $2.5 billion data center campus with two 450,000 sq ft facilities and investments up to $12 billion from future tenants. Initial deployment will be 300 MW at the West Feliciana Parish, Louisiana location.

Oklahoma has over 18,500 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines. Core Scientific and AI hyperscaler CoreWeave are building a 100MW facility in Muskogee, Oklahoma. Google has invested over $4.8 billion into its Mayes County, Oklahoma, data center campus, expanding it three times since 2007. DAMAC Properties is planning on investing $20 billion in data centers in the U.S., including in Oklahoma.

Fewer Pipelines in the Northeast Relative to the Southwest, But Not to Be Counted Out

The Southwest region dominates, with the top three states having the most gas pipelines. However, that doesn’t mean the Northeast region is deprived of data centers. Virginia is home to 70% of the world’s data centers and hosts 35% of the global hyperscalers. In fact, Northern Virginia is often cited as the “data center capital of the world," with over 300 data centers located throughout Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Countries. More than 70% of the world’s internet traffic passes through Northern Virginia's interconnection and co-locations infrastructure. Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta all have a significant data center presence in the region.

Natural Gas for AI Data Centers is Here to Stay

As AI data centers continue to scale, natural gas will remain a critical component in providing reliable power. Gas pipelines crisscrossing places like Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, where the infrastructure is thickest, are quietly doing the heavy lifting to fuel these AI hotspots. As the demand for AI-driven services continues to rise, natural gas will remain a key player in supporting the growth of the data center industry, making natural gas pipelines the unsung heroes of the digital economy.

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