• Vistra is an independent power product (IPP) with 41 GW capacity, operating the second-largest fleet of nuclear plants in the United States. 
• Vistra has closed power purchase agreements (PPAs) to supply Amazon with 200 MW and Microsoft with 405 MW of renewable energy for their data centers in Texas and Illinois, respectively.
• The Company is in talks with two unnamed hyperscalers for natural gas plants co-located with their data centers.
• Co-location involves building data centers or power plants on-site to provide electricity directly to the data center, bypassing the electrical grid. This is known as "behind the meter."
• Regulations on co-location builds are materializing as hyperscalers await the precedent-setting decision on Talen Energy/Amazon co-location reliability solution vs FERC/AEP/Exelon push for cost equity as a major catalyst.
• Vistra has said they are in talks with hyperscalers and data center developers for nuclear power but hasn’t announced any deals yet.

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is the largest competitive power generation and retail electric company in the United States. It’s an integrated independent power producer (IPP) based out of Irving, Texas, serving five million customers across 20 states and Washington, D.C., with a power generation capacity of 41 GW (41,000 MW). It has the second-largest competitive nuclear fleet in the country, behind Constellation Energy. Texas is a hotspot for data centers and chip manufacturers. 

The company has power purchase agreements (PPA) with Amazon and Microsoft and is actively “speaking with all the major hyperscalers” and actively engaged with the major data center developers, according to Vistra CEO Jim Burke during their Q4 conference call. As of March 1, 2025, Vistra energy has 41 GW capacity, comprised of 27 GW for natural gas, 6.4 GW for nuclear, 6 GW for coal and 2 GW for renewable and battery/energy storage (1 GW), which includes solar assets with 350 MW already online.

The Energy Harbor Acquisition Bolstered Vistra’s Nuclear Footprint

On March 1, 2024, Vistra completed the acquisition of Energy Harbor Corp., adding an additional 4 GW of 24/7 nuclear generation and 1 million retail customers. The Company paid $3 billion in cash and a 15% equity stake in a new subsidiary comprised of all of its nuclear fleet (6.4GW) called Vistra Vision. The transaction closing followed receipt of all required regulatory approvals, including the from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in February 2024.

In Q3 2024, the Company bought back the remaining 15% minority interest stake in Vistra Vision for approximately $3.248 billion from affiliates of Nuveen and Avenue Capital Management LLC. The buyback increased its nuclear ownership stake to the full 6.4GW capacity, not to be mistaken with adding any more capacity or increasing its licensed output (uprate). This results in keeping all the proceeds they were distributing to the minority stakeholders in Vistra Vision, which will result in a bump up in net income moving forward, however, they still have to pay $3.248 billion for it.

Vista expects to pay in five installments of $1.18 billion on December 31, 2024, $114 million on June 30, 2025, $1.0 billion on December 31, 2025, $54 million on June 30, 2026, and $900 million on December 31, 2026. The net present value of the purchase price as of December 31, 2024, discounted at a 6% interest rate, is $3.085 billion.

Complying with the Electrical Grid Operators and FERC

Here’s a quick summary of the many acronym organizations in the electricity market. As an IPP, Vistra actively deals with the electrical grid operators where they sell their electricity. Vistra sells wholesale electricity to markets managed by the PJM Interconnection (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland), which covers 13 states. PJM is an independent system operation (ISO) and regional transmission organization (RTO). They run the wholesale electricity markets for the regions, balancing the needs of market participants and ensuring grid reliability. They coordinate the flow of electricity from the power generators to local utilities.

ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) performs the same ISO and RTO functions in Texas, managing high-voltage transmission grids. Texas is the only state that owns its power grid. ERCOT was the first ISO in the United States. Vistra also owns power plants and sells electricity to markets managed by ERCOT. The ISOs and RTOs are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

Co-Location and BTM are Growth Drivers for Vistra

Front of the meter (FTM) refers to power produced by the power plants that flow to the electrical grid and then to the data center or customer. Behind the meter (BTM) refers to electricity that’s generated and directly delivered to the data center, bypassing the grid. Co-location deals where utilities like Vistra install gas power plants on-premise for the hyperscalers are BTM, as the power is generated on-site and delivered directly to the data center. Vistra can repurpose existing gas plants or construct new builds. BTM and co-location are Vistra’s AI hyperscaler growth strategy, but so far, there haven’t been any deals announced yet.

The time to power depends on the type of gas plant, whether it's repurposing an existing gas plant or constructing a new gas plant. Repurposing an existing gas plant can take six to 24 months, using spare capacity. New builds can take three to five years due to gas infrastructure, permits, construction and commissioning (IE, Building up to 860 MW of new gas plants in West Texas).

Vistra is a Nuclear Energy Powerhouse Primed for AI Data Centers

As of March 5, 2025, Vistra operates four active nuclear plants with a combined power capacity of over 6.4 GW, which is enough zero-carbon baseload capacity to power 3.2 million homes across PRJM and ERCOT markets. These include:

• Camanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant located in Texas, comprised of two units with 2,400 MW total capacity, with licenses extended to 2050 and 2053, approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in July 2024.
• Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant in Pennsylvania is comprised of two units with a 1,800 MW total capacity. NRC licenses expire in 2036 and 2047.
• Perry Nuclear Power Plant in Ohio is comprised of one unit with a 1,300 MW capacity. NRC license expires in 2046.
• Davis-Nesse Nuclear Power Plant in Ohio is comprised of one unit with 894 MW capacity. NRC license expires in 2037.

Beaver Valley, Perry and David-Neese Nuclear Plants were acquired from Energy Harbor for $3.4 billion in March 2024. The nuclear plants are operated under Vistra Vision, and the fossil fuel segment operates under Vistra Tradition. Nuclear energy comprises just over 15% of its total energy production. Vistra Energy’s nuclear fleet operates at 92% of its maximum capacity (aka capacity factor) in Q4.

Nuclear Energy and Gas Power Plants Talks with Hyperscalers

Vistra signed a 200 MW power purchase agreement (PPA) with Amazon for a Texas solar facility in October 2024. Vistra signed a 405 MW PPA with Microsoft for a solar project in Illinois during Q3 2024. Incidentally, Vistra hasn’t announced any major nuclear power purchase agreements (PPA) with major hyperscalers yet. However, the Company is in early discussions with some hyperscalers about nuclear uprates and some new builds as well.

Co-location is the trend of building data centers or power plants near data centers to alleviate pressure on the electrical grid and reduce transmission loss to ensure maximum efficiency.

Vistra is in discussions with two unidentified hyperscalers to build new natural gas power plants co-located with data centers. During its Q3 2024 conference call, Vistra's Head of Strategy, Stacey Dore, said this.

“There's a lot of interest, obviously, in the nuclear side. However, we have ongoing conversations with several different development companies about a handful of our gas sites, both in PJM and in ERCOT. And we're in early discussions with some of the hyperscalers about nuclear uprates, and some new build as well as Jim mentioned. And then, finally, we're in discussions with two particular large companies about building new gas plants to support a data center project.”

Diore also cautioned that these talks aren’t an overnight decision, “As we've said before, the diligence process for these deals takes a long time. It's an intense effort because these are very long-term commitments to purchasing power.” The announcement if and when these two hyperscalers closed the deal should be a catalyst for the stock.

How Natural Gas is Used to Generate Electricity

Vistra generates 66% or 27 GW of its energy capacity from natural gas using gas-fired power plants. The primary method for large-scale natural gas generation (1MW or more) is combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT), which connect a gas turbine with a steam turbine. The natural gas is burned in a combustion chamber with compressed air to spin the turbine connected to a generator producing electricity. The exhaust heat can climb up to 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit, which is used to boil water to generate steam, driving a second turbine to generation addition electricity.

Simple-cycle turbines operate with just the natural gas turbines, without the steam turbines. Natural gas combustion turbines generate 35% to 42% of direct electricity. The steam turbines add another 20% to 25%, yielding total thermal efficiencies between 55% to 67%, which is the energy output vs fuel input. As natural gas is delivered through pipelines, around 92% is actually delivered, as 8% energy loss is common. Coal plants yield around 33% thermal efficiency. Nuclear plants yield 33% to 37% thermal efficiency, similar to or slightly better than coal. The main difference is the carbon emissions, which are virtually none, making nuclear the cleanest option of the three.

On a smaller scale (325 KW), we wrote about how Bloom Energy Servers (BES) can reach 85% to 90% thermal efficiency through its non-combustion, electrochemical reaction method using solid oxide fuel cells and heat capture. 

“BES is designed to work with existing carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) and combined heat and power (CHP) technologies. CCUS mitigates emissions from natural gas as BES generates a pure stream of CO2 that can be used or sequestered. CHP allows the exhaust heat generated by BES (operating at a core temperature of 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit or 800 degrees Celsius) to be channeled and made available for use, further increasing the efficiency of the system.“

AI Applications are Driving AI Data Center Power Needs

AI applications require much more electricity to operate, depending on the applications. AI training and inferencing drive power demand, “Wells Fargo is projecting AI power demand to surge 550% by 2026, from 8 TWh in 2024 to 52 TWh, before rising another 1,150% to 652 TWh by 2030. This is a remarkable 8,050% growth from their 2024 projected level. AI training is expected to drive the bulk of this demand, at 40 TWh in 2026 and 402 TWh by 2030, with inference’s power demand accelerating at the end of the decade. In this model, the 652 TWh projection is more than 16% of the current total electricity demand in the US.”

As IO Fund pointed out, “The Electric Power Research Institute forecasts that data centers may see their electricity consumption more than double by 2030, reaching 9% of total electricity demand in the US. The IEA is projecting global electricity demand from AI, data centers and crypto to rise to 800 TWh in 2026 in its base case scenario, a nearly 75% increase from 460 TWh in 2022. The agency’s high case scenario calls for demand to more than double to 1,050 TWh.”

Vistra Leverages Clean Energy Tax Credits and Incentives

Vistra currently does and could leverage many forms of energy credits to help squeeze every bit of margin. Its customers can also benefit from tax credits under these programs. Here are some of the most lucrative credits:

• The Inflation Reduction Act (IRS) of 2022 introduced a Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) of up to $25 per megawatt-hour (MWh), which runs for 10 years through 2032 for facilities in service prior to January 1, 2023. The PTC kicks in went prices are below set limits. Vistra recognized a $545 million benefit from the nuclear PTC in Q4 2024.
• The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) was extended by the IRA through to December 31, 2024, under section 48, offering a 30% credit for projects started prior to then with up to four years to go online. New projects starting on January 1, 2025, and after shifts to section 48E, the Clean Electricity Production Credit, which applies to zero-emission projects through 2033
• The Clean Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC) under section 48E replaced the traditional PTC with technology-neutral clean electricity PTC, which offers up to 2.75 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Projects that begin construction before 2033 and meet wage/apprenticeship rules can receive the credit. Vistra can receive PTC for any upgrades (capacity increases) or new builds after 2025. It could have the potential for up to $50 million annually in solar and scaling higher with new projects. Vistra’s solar projects with Amazon (200 MW PPA) and Microsoft (405 MW PPA) are likely claiming the ITC of 30%, which covers installation costs. It’s 600 MW planned battery story planned in Texas also qualifies. Nuclear uprates could also apply if started post-2025.
• The Energy Community Tax Credit Bonus adds a 10% tax credit (10% points) to the existing ITC for projects in energy communities and areas with close coal plants/mines. Vistra operates in many former coal mining regions in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.

The Trump administration has mentioned it plans to rollback many IRA provisions, which could cap or limit tax credits and incentives moving forward.

Financials: MTM Caused a Non-Cash Surge to Financial Metrics

Note that Q3 2024 shows a surge in net income to $3.465 billion, up 159% YoY from $1.335 billion in Q3 2023, driven primarily by unrealized mark-to-market (MTM) gains on derivative positions and the addition of Energy Harbor. This jolted various metrics, including gross and operating margins, GAAP EPS and gross profits. Still, since most of it was a non-cash gain, the operating cash flow didn’t surge proportionally. The mark-to-market gains were non-cash, but the addition of Energy Harbor gains were cash and are here to stay moving forward. Vistra expected $700 million in contributions from the Energy Harbor business for 10 months. The adjusted EBITDA excludes the impact of unrealized gains or losses on derivatives, which makes for a better measure of operating performance. CFO Moldovan clarified this in the Q4 conference call.

“Including the nuclear production tax credit, our adjusted EBITDA was more than $850 million above the midpoint and more than $600 million above the top end. Notably, the 10-month contribution from Energy Harbor, including the nuclear PTC, exceeded our $700 million expectation by approximately $200 million.”

Revenue is Lumpy, But The Energy Harbor Acquisition is Accretive

Q4 revenue rose 31.16% YoY but fell (35.8%) QoQ to $4.04 billion, beating the single analyst estimate by 3.2% or $124 million, driven primarily by the inclusion of results from the Energy Harbor acquisition and an increase in revenues due to the estimated nuclear PTC recorded in the quarter. The negative QoQ was primarily due to the surge in Q3 "driven primarily by unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative positions."

Adjusted EBITDA from Ongoing Operations: Bypassing the MTM Noise  

Due to the MTM unrealized gains on derivatives, the adjusted EBITDA from the ongoing operations metric provides a more accurate picture of the operations. Q4 adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations was $1.985 billion, up 104.2% YoY and 37.85% YoY. This was an improvement from Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $1.44 billion, down (10.73%) YoY and up 1.84% QoQ.

Net income for the full year 2024 increased by $1.32 billion, driven primarily by unrealized MTM gains on derivative positions, the addition of Energy Harbor and an increase in revenues due to estimated nuclear PTC recorded in Q4. Ongoing adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025 increased $1.516 billion YoY primarily due to the inclusion of results from the Energy Harbor acquisition and estimated nuclear PTC recorded in Q4 2024. Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations was $5.656 billion. Management guided full year 2025 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion, with the midpoint of $5.8 billion. Management has "high confidence" in an adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity above $6 billion in the full year 2026, as its hedge ratio has increased from 64% to 80% since Q3. 

The hedge ratio is the percentage of future (2026) expected electricity generation in megawatt hours (MWh) that is already locked in at a fixed price (IE, 80% is locked in at a fixed price) through derivatives like futures, options or swaps. The unhedged portion (IE: 20%) is exposed to market prices, which may rise, thereby raising EBITDA or potential fall and sinking EBITDA.

Margins: MTM and PTC Surge Q4 Improvement by 348.7%

Q4 gross margin was 39.6%, up 348.7% YoY and down (28.14%) QoQ, largely due to the MTM unrealized gains on derivatives, as mentioned earlier. The large YoY surge was due to the near doubling of gross profit to $1.6 billion in Q4 2024 compared to $850 million in Q4 2023, partially driven by the $545 million nuclear production tax credit (PTC), which reflects the full-year credit and the inclusion of results from the Energy Harbor acquisition. However, the jump was primarily based on a non-cash event, which investors shouldn't mistake for organic growth.

Lumpy Cash Flow as Debt Reaches Highest Level of 2024

Q4 cash flow reached $1.353B as operating cash flow rose to its highest level of five quarters at 33.5%. However, cash flow has been lumpy, ranging from $312 million in Q1 to a peak of $1.702B in Q3. Free cash flow closed Q4 at $923 million but was just as lumpy at ($153 million) in Q1, peaking at $1.017 billion in Q3 2024. Vistra closed Q4 2024 with $1.19 billion in cash and cash equivalents. The debt reached its highest level in five quarters, closing the year at $17.49 billion. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA is 2.9X. The Company plans on executing $2 billion in stock buybacks in 2025 and 2026.

Conference Call: Potential 10% Nuclear Capacity Increase by 2030

CEO Jim Burke reviewed 2024 events, including acquiring three nuclear sites and 1 million retail customers. They also completed a 20-year license renewal for the Camanche Plant nuclear power plant and secured Amazon and Microsoft PPA agreements with its renewables pipeline. The pre-Q&A can be summed up with the following:

• Vista is in the early stages of the development of two natural gas peakers, power plants using natural gas during high demand periods, "peak times," totaling up to 860 MW of capacity. They are targeting mid-2028 for commercial operations.
• Vistra continues to execute its zero-carbon growth strategy by leveraging existing land and interconnections to develop solar and energy storage projects opportunistically. They brought two solar and energy storage facilities online at its Coffeen and Baldwin, Illinois, sites. These facilities are part of the Illinois coal-to-solar and energy storage initiative. Vistra has begun construction of its Oak Hill, Texas, site for its contract with Amazon and the Pulaski, Illinois, site for its contract with Microsoft. Once they go online, it will add more than 600 MW of renewable capacity to Vistra’s portfolio.
• Vistra has engineering studies in process with initial estimates indicating the potential uprates across their nuclear fleet of nearly 10%. Uprates increase a nuclear plant's power output without having to build new reactors. This can be performed with technology upgrades and improved turbines. It means they have the potential to add an extra 640 MW of additional capacity to their portfolio by the early 2030s when they expect to go online. This could equate to an extra $258 million a year at $50/MWh x 5.16 TWh, and even higher towards $361 million annually, with hyperscaler PPAs paying a premium of $70/MWh.
• Texas policymakers are concerned about grid reliability and the challenges of accommodating rapidly growing energy demand, particularly from AI data centers. Despite these concerns, market reforms to incentivize new generations have been limited, raising worries among both generators and large-load customers, including data centers. While it's unclear if data center customers will alter their decisions during ongoing legislative discussions, there are potential solutions.
• Vistra plans to spend $700 million on solar and energy storage products in 2025, which includes solar projects for Amazon and Microsoft.

Q&A: Gas Power Plants and Nuclear Plants for Data Centers

Analysts had tunnel vision during the Q&A; data centers. Right off the bat, Management was asked about the primary impediment to getting the deal done with the hyperscalers. CEO Burke responded that it’s not as easy as just signing a contract. The “flavor of the deal” matters.

Burke assured, “So you can assume that we're speaking to all the major hyperscalers and that we're actively engaged with them and the major data center developers. But there are flavors of complexity. So, the virtual PPA, which would be a front-ended leader, would be a relatively straightforward deal to execute. We have a number of discussions going on with those. Those do not offer, we think, the same margin potential as the more complicated deals, which do involve co-location, whether it's with existing assets or new assets.”

Burke further elaborated on co-location deals (colo-deals), which include risk-sharing for 10 to 20 years.

“And you've seen not many deals have been announced that have actually been co-location related. We think colo-deals offer a lot of benefits for not only the data center customer and our fleet but the market overall — the overall customer base because it not only provides speed to market for the customer but can also result in more transmission build-out that the grid absorbs today.”

Front-of-the-meter (FTM) power purchasing agreements (PPAs) with data centers are a lower-margin product. Burke elaborated that the highest margins come for co-lo deals offering speed to market using an existing resource. Burke noted that the sweet spot is understanding their value proposition.

The complexity of these deals has sparked elevated discussions in regulatory and policymaking circles, with FERC and Texas recently addressing co-location issues. As customers seek clarity on the rules, the timing of any announcements will depend on the resolution of these regulatory discussions in PJM and Texas. Although front-of-the-meter virtual PPAs are still a possibility, co-location deals—where the load and generation asset are close—remain the ideal. The company is actively engaging in these discussions and is optimistic about progress, though further clarity is needed before any deals are finalized. Burke said the Comanche Peak opportunity is considered the most attractive and fastest to execute in its portfolio.

Status of Gas Power Plants for Co-Located Data Centers 

Morgan Stanley analyst David Arcaro asked about the prospects of potential gas co-location. Vistra Head of Strategy Stacey Dore started by saying they are seeing interest in their existing gas sites from data center developers at this point. Since a grid connection is typically needed at a gas power plant, the regulatory approval process applies even for a front-of-the-meter interconnection, which adds more time and complexity, especially when adding batteries and other backup generators to replicate reliability. Their gas lines don’t have as much land associated with them as a nuclear site, so the challenge of where to build the data center exists but continued to say:

 “Having said that, we're progressing on a lot of those conversations on a handful of our sites in detail, working on agreements to bring those projects to fruition. And in addition to that, we are in a number of conversations about building new gas for data centers as well. So we have a number of conversations going on that are at the papering stage. And as Jim referenced earlier, those agreements can be complex, but we are optimistic about our ability to bring those projects to a close.”

CEO Burke believes a cap and floor and likely to be approved in the next two auctions. While some worry about the grid doubling by 2030, Vistra anticipates a more moderate peak demand growth in the 3% to 5% range rather than double-digit increases.

Talen/Amazon Deal will Set Tone for AI Data Centers and Colocation

The Talen and Amazon deal highlights the resource adequacy issue, sparking a conversation about whether co-location or transmission charges should be addressed. While co-location helps minimize strain on the electrical grid as electricity is funneled directly to the data center bypassing the grid, critics argue it actually deprives consumers of capacity while shifting transmission costs to them unfairly. American Electric Power (AEP) and Exelon made the case that Amazon was getting a “free ride” by co-locating adjacent to Talen’s Susquehanna Nuclear Power Plant and shifting up to $170 million in grid costs to their customers, while depriving them of electric capacity.

Vistra supports efforts to require customers larger than 75 MW to shed load during critical peak hours, and the customers they’re talking to are preparing their designs for this. But when the talk of remote disconnect switches arises, it's unusual and only would exist for these customers, which gives them pause.

Are Microgrids and Off-Grid Energy Servers the Solution?

Shedding loads during critical peak hours could be done through micro-grids. As IO Fund wrote in Bloom Energy: Fuel Cells for the Booming AI Data Center Trend Bloom Energy: Fuel Cells for the Booming AI Data Center Trend in the Discovery Tier, Bloom energy servers (BES) can be stacked. “The 325 kW base blocks can be duplicated and scaled up to multiple MWs for any project. They can also be used as the primary power source. They can be used off-grid or parallel as a microgrid. BES has a high density of 100 MW per acre.” The ideal has gained traction as evidenced by the game changer deal made with Bloom Energy and American Electric Power (AEP) to procure up to 1GW of Bloom’s solid-oxide-fuel-cells (SOFCs) for their hyperscaler customers.

Customers Waiting on Transmission Charges

Burke insists customers need clarity on transmission charges, which was a big choking point with Amazon and Talen. Amazon claims they shouldn’t have to pay transmission fees since their data center is co-located adjacent to Talen Energy’s Susquehanna nuclear plant. The data center would be powered behind the meter directly from the nuclear plant, bypassing the grid. However, FERC rejected the amended interconnection service agreement (ISA) to increase to 480 MW with a potential up to 960 MW. American Electric Power (AEP) and Exelon argued that diverting that much power would reduce the electricity available to the 65 million residents in the regional PHM grid, which could destabilize the grid, and shift up to $140 million in costs onto other ratepayers, essentially giving Amazon a "free ride." The case could set a precedent with co-location agreements around the country. Burke said this:

“They just want to know, are they going to get something that's commensurate with the transmission and grid utilization. These are revisiting potentially of the four coincident peak methodology. That probably does need revisiting because some customers are able to either reduce their load or turn on back up and minimize their transmission exposure, which means those costs go to other customers, including potentially residential customers. And since we serve nearly 5 million customers, we're sensitive to that as well.”

Seaport analyst Angie Storozynski bluntly asked management why they hadn't heard of any gas deals. Dore stated the co-location deals with existing assets are waiting on regulatory clarity as well. Whether gas or nuclear, regulatory clarity is what customers are waiting on.

“I mean the same uncertainty that is applying to behind-the-meter or co-located deals in PJM, for example, with the FERC proceedings, would apply whether the asset is nuclear or gas. Because the question really that's being asked is, what is the transmission charge, if any, that has to be paid on those deals.”

Vistra Expects FERC Clarity in the Second Half of the Year

Dore explained that Vistra isn’t waiting for full clarity from FERC or Texas before announcing deals, but ongoing legal proceedings (Amazon/Talon) are raising questions around risks like changing laws. The company is continuing work on projects like Beaver Valley and Comanche Peak, progressing without pause despite regulatory complexities. Jim Burke added that while co-locating load with plants raises concerns about grid adequacy, the company believes that co-location can benefit the grid by reducing transmission build-out and enhancing efficiency. Customers want to be seen as contributors to economic development, and co-location offers a faster market entry.

Despite regulatory delays, the company remains committed to advancing these discussions. Dore further noted that FERC's recent order sets a positive timeline for co-location and recognizes that there is no resource adequacy difference between front-of-the-meter and behind-the-meter loads. The challenge lies in balancing the customers' desire for fast deployment with policymakers' concerns about grid stability. The company hopes for clarity from FERC within the next 5-6 months to move co-location projects forward.

Conclusion:

Vistra is technically a utility company. Historically, these stocks have been considered defensive income plays due to their stagnant growth and consistent dividend yields. The AI boom has triggered interest in utility company stocks on a convincing thesis that power consumption is the chokepoint with AI. Utility companies will make more money with the explosion of power consumption driven by AI driven by data centers.

For utility companies, there are a number of ways to grow: acquisition (IE: Energy Harbor), rising energy prices (rate hikes), increasing capacity (uprates), increasing customers (IE: Energy Harbor = one million new customers), regulatory incentives (PTC, ITC, CEPTC, ECTC), cost reductions and new service offerings (co-lo). Co-location is the highest margin option with hyperscalers, but they are waiting on the Amazon/Talen FERC ruling in 2H 2025 to set a precedent on transmission fees and whether co-located data centers have to pay their share for grid maintenance and upgrades even without using the grid.

Vistra confirmed they are in talks with hyperscalers for co-location and new builds. However, they haven’t announced any nuclear PPAs so far or named the two hyperscalers getting gas plants. Announcements with hyperscalers will be a catalyst for the stock. Despite the stock being up 87% on a trailing twelve-month basis, the P/E is reasonable at 15.56.

Vistra was just a normal utility company until its announced the completion of the Energy Harbor acquisition on March 1, 2024, adding three nuclear plants and one million additional customers, this sent the stock surging from the $54.69 level gaining momentum on the AI data center “halo” as the markets turned to power producers as the next growth segment. Vistra announced Q2 earnings on August 8, 2024, revealing the two long-term PPA with Amazon and Microsoft, which were the first major hyperscalers they contracted. This sent VST stock on an upward trajectory from $80.46 to a peak of $199.84 on Jan. 23, 2025, just before the Q4 2024 earnings results, which triggered the downward trajectory as the Company only has two hyperscaler under contract (AMZN, MSFT), but are in talks with two hyperscalers for co-located gas plants. Investors put the cart in front of the horse, but shares are pulling back in time for the reveal of some more hyperscaler PPA news.

Investors should see how the stock reacts to announcements with hyperscalers, as it will either put in a new floor on the stock price or trigger a sell the news reaction as the AI “halo” dissolves. For now, it’s a waiting game for announcements and regulatory decisions.

Welcome to the I/O Fund’s new Discovery Tier, where we cover a new stock idea on a weekly or bi-monthly basis. We are excited to bring you more coverage from the I/O Fund team geared toward new idea generation only.

Jea Yu, Equity Analyst at the I/O Fund, contributed to this article.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

Recommended Reading:

• Bloom Energy: AI Data Center Demand Looks to Accelerate a Solid Growth Pipeline in 2025
• Nova Limited: Riding the AI/HPC Wave with Advanced Nodes and Packaging
• Monolithic Power Systems: A Back-Half 2025 Hyperscaler Story
• Himax Technologies: A Future Key Player in Silicon Photonics

Bloom Energy delivered solid Q4 2024 results, culminating in a top-line beat of $64.85 million and a bottom-line beat of $0.12 per share. Revenue surged 60.4% YoY in Q4 to close out the year with positive free cash flow for the first time since 2019. Adjusted operating margin tripled from last year. 2024 laid out the foundation for deals and revenue to accelerate in 2025. Notably, the game-changer deal with AEP was a large driver for Q4.

With that said, energy-related stocks have lumpy revenue, lumpy margins and lumpy cash. Admittedly, fundamental analysis is challenging in this sector as there are often government subsidies to also consider, deal sizes can be enormous yet infrequent, and things change suddenly depending on macroeconomics. Like crypto, due to being absent of reliable fundamentals,  technicals must be in the driver's seat for energy-related stocks, and investors should be prepared to have an active management stance.

The “Game Changer” AEP Deal up to 1 GW of Bloom Fuels Cells

According to Bloom, the company has key advantages by offering solid oxide fuel cells compared to other power solutions such as quick time to deployment, reliability, not needing backups, electrochemical (non-combustion) electricity generation, low to no carbon emissions and easy to obtain air permits.

The company also offers modular fault tolerant architecture, which we covered in the past stating: “BES uses core 325 kW base blocks customized to work in parallel with the local electric grid in standby or backup mode to kick in when the local power becomes unavailable. The 325 kW base blocks can be duplicated and scaled up to multiple MWs for any project. They can also be used as the primary power source. They can be used off-grid or parallel as a microgrid. BES has a high density compared to solar or wind of 100 MW per acre with features such as stackable servers and combined heat and power solutions. However, nuclear is in the kilowatts per acre, and therefore, is by far the highest density power solution.” Notably, Bloom Energy does not foresee nuclear being a true competitor until 2030: “I really don't think you're going to move the needle, between now and another eight years with nuclear.”

Due to these benefits, utility companies like AEP are contracting Bloom Energy to help serve the outsized power demands that AI data centers requires. We pointed out in our earlier coverage of Bloom Energy, the significant game-changer deal with American Electric Power (AEP) to “secure up to 1 GW of Bloom Energy SOFC for their data center customers and other larger energy users. AEP placed an order for the installation of 100 MW of fuel cells at customer sites, with further expansion orders expected in 2025.

AEP expects commercial load to grow 20% annually over the next three years, driven by data center development. The company is in the process of finalizing the first customer project agreements, and discussions are ongoing with several other customers. AEP’s hyperscaler customers include Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms.

• AEP will purchase Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) from Bloom Energy with an initial order of 100 MW, with more expected in 2025, and integrate them into their customer energy systems, prioritizing AI data centers. Large customers will cover all costs for the fuel cell projects under a special contract. AEP will oversee deployment and installation at customer sites.
• Bloom will supply the SOFCs to AEP, providing the core technology for on-site power generation. Bloom will likely offer ongoing support and maintenance services. “

AEP’s initial order of 100 MW at $3 per watt would equate to $300 million for the product hardware and $600 million of maintenance services over the following 20 years. The potential product sales for 1GW would equate to $3 billion with potential service revenues of $6 billion over 20 years. The potential total contract value of AEP’s 1 GW deal would be $9 billion over 20 years including products and services.

Bloom is in Talks with Other Utilities for Similar Deals to AEP

The company is using the AEP deal as a template for more deals with utility companies, who can provide Bloom’s solution for their customers. During the Q4 2024 conference call, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco asked if they expect more deals like AEP’s with a large utility serving data center customers rather than directly to the data center.

CEO Shrider answered that Bloom Energy is not competing with the utilities but providing them with the ability to service their hyperscaler customers. He said this.

“This is KR and again on your first question, yes the answer is we are talking to several utilities who are interested in some kind of arrangements along the lines of what we announced with AEP. And it is A, they are realizing that no matter how fast they augment their transmission distribution system, no matter where generation happens or not, getting the power to the end customer, between now and 2030, is going to be a big issue unless you produce power where you need it.”

Revenue Rises to Record Levels in Q4 to Close Out a Record Full Year 2024

On Jan 12, 2025, the I/O Fund pointed out that Bloom Energy would need to have a big Q4 with revenue growing 67.8% YoY towards $598.5 million to achieve management’s mid-point guidance, which would imply a large chuck of product revenue being pushed out into Q4. Bloom Energy delivered close enough with 60.4% YoY revenue growth to $572.39 million, firmly beating the $507.54 million by $64.85M. The revenue spike was driven by collecting large receivables from their related party, SK ecoplant.

• Q4 revenue grew by 60.4% YoY and 73.2% QoQ to $572.39 million, compared to the Q3 revenue drop of (17.5%) YoY and (1.6%) QoQ to $330.4 million. Nearly 40% of 2024 total revenue came in Q4. The Company received its large related party, SK ecoplant, receivable in the quarter. Bloom Energy also assisted them in selling a majority of the 73MW of energy servers they held as part of a delayed project.
• Q4 revenue of $572.39507.54 million beat consensus estimates of $507.54 million by 12.78%, compared to Q3 revenue of $330.4 million, missing consensus estimates for $383.19 million by 13.78%.
• Q4 Product and Service revenue surged 67.2% YoY to $525.5 million, compared to Q4 2023 Product and Service revenue of $314.4 million.

Full-year 2024 revenue rose 10.5% YoY to $1.474 billion. Product and Service revenues rose 12.1% YoY to $1.158 billion. Management provided full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion, midpoint is $1.75 billion for 19.1% YoY growth.

Key Metrics and Backlog

Bloom Energy closed out 2024 with a total backlog of $11.5B, down (4.96%) YoY, comprised of Product backlog of $2.5B, down (16.67%) YoY and Service backlog of $11.5B, down (4.96%) YoY. CFO Berenbaum pointed out that due to the supply agreement with SK ecoplant, the Product backlog would have been 30% higher, by $900 million, to $3.9 billion. This indicates the Company is seeing more demand for its products.

“We have $2.5 billion of product backlog. Excluding dynamics around our supply agreement with SK ecoplant, our product backlog would have been up roughly 30% year-over-year. As a reminder, at the end of 2023, we had extended the term of our SK ecoplant distribution agreement to the end of 2027, and increased their purchase commitment to 500 megawatts, all of which was included in our year ending 2023 backlog.”

Dropping Product and MW Accepted Metrics as of Q4

CFO Berenbaum noted on the Q4 2024 conference call that the Company is shifting focus away from earlier used metrics that measure kW shipped (IE: Products Accepted and MW Accepted).

Business has “evolved” as Product revenue is now recognized upon shipments, not acceptance as in the past based on grid-connected baseload power or timing of revenue recognition. The Company is now offering a broader range of solutions ranging from microgrids, carbon capture, AI data center solutions to combined heat and power systems, which provide more complex value to customers. Solutions go beyond just energy production and there the focus has shifted to traditional metrics like revenue growth, non-GAAP gross and operating margins, and cash flow from operations. Berenbaum said this.

“As we've discussed over the past few quarters, management is primarily focused on overall revenue, product revenue growth, non-GAAP gross and operating margin and cash flow from operations. In the past when we were primarily shipping grid connected, baseload power, and timing of product revenue recognition was somewhat divorced from timing of product shipments.”

Margins Consistently Expand in 2024

Q4 gross margin was 38.3%, up 47.8% YoY and 60.9% QoQ. This was an improvement over Q3 2024 gross margin of 23.8% versus gross margin of (1.3%) in Q3 2023. Gross margin improved on a sequential basis for Q3 gross margin improving 16.7% QoQ and Q2 gross margin improving 25.9% QoQ. Q1 gross margin fell by -37.4% QoQ from Q4 2023 gross margin of 25.9%.  Management guided the full year 2025 non-GAAP gross margin around 29%.

Non-GAAP gross margin rose to 39.3% in Q4, up 43.4% YoY and 14.1% QoQ. The operating margin turned positive to 18.3% in Q4, up from 3.6% YoY, and from (2.9%) in the previous quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin closed at a yearly high of 23.3%, compared to 7.7% in the year ago period and 2.5% in the previous period.

Bloom Energy drove another record year of double-digit core energy server product cost reduction, which benefits both Products and Services.

Non-GAAP EPS Rises Consecutively for the Fourth Quarter in 2024

Q4 non-GAAP EPS was $0.43, beating consensus estimates for $0.31 by $0.12 or 38.7%, rising 514% YoY from $0.07. This was an improvement over Q3 GAAP EPS of a loss of ($0.01), which missed consensus estimates for a profit of $0.08 by ($0.09), and fell from $0.15 in the year ago period.

Management hinted that Q1 2025 EPS could be up approximately 20% to 30% YoY. For the full year 2024, EPS was calculated using the basic outstanding share count of 227 million, compared to the fully diluted share count of 294 million.

Cash Flows Surge in Q4 Driven by SK Ecoplant Receivables Collection

The collection of SK ecoplant receivables helped operating cash flow surge to $484.23 million, marking the first positive quarter of operating cash flow in 2024. However, a large portion of the cash flow surge came from collecting the SK receivable which was speculated at $325 million by BMO Capital Markets analyst Ameet Thakkar, which is a one off.

Operating cash flow was down ($69.5 million) in Q3. The operating cash flow margin in Q4 was 84.6%, a vast improvement from -21% in Q3.

Free cash flow improved to $473.3 million from down ($83.76 million) in Q3. The free cash flow margin was 82.7% in Q4, up from down (25.35%) in Q3. Bloom Energy closed out Q4 and 2024 was $960.97 million in cash and cash equivalents and debt of $1.12 billion.

Growth By Segment: Products and Services Climb Out of a Hole in Q4

Bloom Energy revenues come in four segments. The largest segment is Product revenue generated from the sale of Bloom energy servers (BES) directly to customers through partnerships and preferred distributor agreements (PDAs). This segment can be lumpy but has been trending in the right direction, starting Q1 2024 with -27% YoY growth to 80% YoY growth by Q4 2024. Bloom Energy closed out 2024 with $2.5 billion in product backlog, excluding the supply agreement with SK ecoplant.

The Services revenue is less lumpy as these are comprised of maintenance contracts and performance guarantees. Extended maintenance contracts are received at the beginning of each service year. Payment comes in the form of a customer deposit that gets recognized over the service period. Q4 non-GAAP gross profit was $4 million in Q4, a vast improvement over a loss of $33 million in the year-ago period. Service was profitable on a non-GAAP basis in every quarter during 2024. Bloom Energy closed out 2024 with $9 billion of service backlog. The Company has a 100% attach rate of service with their product sales. Service contracts can range anywhere from five to 20 years, which is how the large long-term service backlog forms.

**Electricity is a $10 million segment and has been omitted due to being a small fraction of total revenue.

Valuation

Bloom Energy trades at a forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.72.

The price/sales (P/S) ratio is 3.41, forward P/S is 2.94.

The price-to-book value ratio is 9

The debt-to-equity ratio is 2.616.

Earnings Call:

AI’s $500 Billion Data Center Boom Is Stranded: Power Shortages Demand Urgent Action

The bottleneck with constructing AI data centers lies in the ability to secure the vast amount of power needed to operate them. Power availability is the chokepoint that dictates the entire ecosystem’s viability. Meanwhile, AI components like GPUs have a short shelf life that risks rapid depreciation if power isn’t secured quickly.

I/O Fund pointed out, “Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell generation boosts power consumption even further, with the B200 consuming up to 1,200W, and the GB200 (which combines two B200 GPUs and one Grace CPU) expected to consume 2,700W. This represents up to a 300% increase in power consumption across one generation of GPUs with AI systems increasing power consumption at a higher rate.“

CEO Shrider gave an example with NVIDIA’s GPUS, “The earnings call from NVIDIA yesterday, okay. Whatever they shipped in that quarter, 90 days, if it were fully facilitized in a data center, will consume anywhere between 2 and 2.5 gigawatts of new power. That's the capacity that's needed. With the growth guidance that they gave you. You fast forward that for the next 12 months. That's just the chips coming from that one company. Fully facilitized will be somewhere in the range of 10 to 13 gigawatts. More than 50% of that is going to stay in the United States. That's more than 6 gigawatts. You're talking about $500 billion worth of infrastructure outside of power. That has to happen even at $5,000. Sorry, $5 billion in terms of facilitating that per gigawatt, that's less than 10%.”

Sridhar underscored the very real dilemma of rapid depreciation for the chips, while trying to secure power. Bloom’s customers are frantic about being able to secure power for this reason.

 “Let me make this very clear. You're spending more than $500 billion building a data infrastructure that needs power. If power is not available, and the chips you're installing there have a very short shelf life, because they become old, every year the value of that chip drops like crazy. So, the time to power premium is so high, and the cost of bringing that power, even if you pay the premium is worth every penny of it.”

This is where Bloom Energy Servers come into play offering “AlwaysON” continuous 24/7 power that’s independent to the electrical grid or used as a backup power source. A Bloom Microgrid can be installed to take primary control over critical loads and customize power delivery. Energy Server blocks are repeatable and scalable with the 325 kW base block, which can be duplicated and scaled to multiple MW for any project.

Time to Power is a Competitive Advantage and Purchasing Criteria

CEO KR Shridar emphasized the competitive advantages that Bloom brings to the table, one of which is the ability to bring clients online quickly. He stated this.

“Four years ago, most of our bookings took two to three years to deploy and convert to revenue. The majority of 2024 revenue came from deals that were both signed and recognized in the same year. I expect us to continue to deploy orders quickly, just as we did in 2024. Because for many customers today, the most important purchasing criteria, is time to power. They need reliable power and they need it now. Our Bloom solution, is purpose built to meet that need.”

The fear of data centers getting priority over commercial and industrial (C&I) companies with the utilities is causing them to seek out off-the-grid solutions as Bloom Energy provides. This just adds to the demand for Bloom’s solutions.

The Need for Less Infrastructure May be Beneficial in this Administration

President Trump has declared a national energy emergency. However, he favors fossil fuels and has vowed to end delays for federal drilling permits for oil and gas production. Trump has and is repealing many of the Biden era environmental agenda including modifying and cutting back the Inflation Reduction Act. However, Trump is a big supporter of AI infrastructure as evidenced by his promotion of the $500 billion Stargate project which is a joint venture between OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle and MGX. The project will build AI data centers across the country to create jobs and enable AI innovation. Both of these factors play into Bloom’s wheelhouse. By promoting more natural gas production and infrastructure, it enables Bloom Servers to more readily access its most used fuel source, natural gas, as management stated.

“Gas is available, the infrastructure is there. And our solution, without needing to add additional transmission, distribution, and making the average ratepayer incur that cost, is going to be politically very attractive. For all those reasons, we think that that's a great market for”

ITC Credits to End in 2028 for Section 48 Projects Before 2025

Shrider also noted that Bloom’s customers, financiers and other commercial ecosystem partners have collectively secured the option to receive full investment tax credit (ITC) for future purchases.

He said this.

“They are entitled to 40% credits nationwide in light of our U.S. manufacturing and 50% credits in predefined energy communities. They can enjoy the tax benefits for systems placed in operation in the United States between now and the year 2028. This Safe Harbor, if fully exercised, has the potential to yield between $12 billion and $15 billion of gross product revenue to Bloom.”

Under commercial ITC section 48 which was extended to Dec 31, 2024, it allows for a 30% ITC base. There is a 10% when using U.S. made components and an addition 10% bonus if installed in “energy communities” referring to fossil fuel towns with high unemployment (IE: coal mining towns). These result in a maximum 50% ITC credit for projects that started pre-2025, which get a 4 year continuity window which is the Dec 31, 2028, deadline.

This means any of Bloom’s installations started or contracted in 2024 can claim the 40% to 50% ITC is the project is completed by 2028. New projects shift to Section 48E. The $12 billion to $15 billion in potential projects refers to the 1.2 GW installed base and new orders like the AEP deal. The $2.5 billion product backlog is the floor and the $12 billion to $15 billion is the potential ceiling.

Could this have possibly triggered a pull-forward effect on orders and the backlog for Bloom Energy? Very possible. It doesn’t impact Q4 revenues because Bloom only recognizes the revenue when shipped, not on orders placed. However, projects starting after Dec 31, 2024, fall under section 48E, which is the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit (CEITC).

This is a technology-neutral ITC introduced by the IRA to replace section 48. However, section 48E requires electricity generation or storage with zero emissions, which favors solar, wind, nuclear and batteries. It excludes natural gas, biogas, CHOP and non-electrical technology. Hydrogen fuel would qualify since there is no carbon emissions from that, but its not very cost effective.

CFO Dan Berenbaum covered the $2.5 billion in products and $9 billion in service backlog. He spoke about the shifting priorities now with the business model.

“As we've discussed over the past few quarters, management is primarily focused on overall revenue, product revenue growth, non-GAAP gross and operating margin and cash flow from operations. In the past when we were primarily shipping grid connected, baseload power, and timing of product revenue recognition was somewhat divorced from timing of product shipments.”

Question and Answering Session: Reading Between the Lines

Bloom’s Business Relies on Third-Party Financing

Bloom Energy’s business is very cash intensive and its ability to deploy its backlog is directly tied to its ability to secure project financing. Its pointed out in the 10-K filing, “We arrange financing for our customers’ purchases of our products based on certain conditions, such as their credit quality and the expected minimum internal rate of return on the customer engagement. If these conditions are not met, we may not be able to find financing for their purchases of our products, which would have a negative impact on our revenue in a particular period. If we are unable to arrange financing for our products, our business could be harmed. Additionally, certain financing options, as with all leases, are also limited by the customer’s willingness to commit to making fixed payments, regardless of the products’ performance or our performance of our obligations under the customer agreement. If we are unable to arrange future financing for any of our current projects, it could negatively impact our business.”

CEO Shridar pointed out how capital efficiency and their ability to reduce costs has helped, “So for 2025, so we are being pretty tight about how we manage working capital. We're being very tight around how we manage expenses. We are investing prudently in the right things for the business. And to echo KR's comments, as we've said before, we're quickly approaching about 1 gigawatt worth of manufacturing. We've talked about being able to triple that capacity for roughly $150 million. So as KR said, we're able to grow our capacity in a very capital efficient manner. And to be clear, we will do that when we see the growth.”

Revenue is Now Recognized on Shipments

Wolfe Research analyst Chris Senyek tried to get an idea of the shipments in Q4 from the AEP deal, trying to get a clue if all 100 fuel cells for AEP were shipped in Q4. CFO Dan Berenbaum didn't take the bait and stated they don't talk about the specific timing of shipments for specific customers. However, an interesting point was that their revenue recognition policy has changed from being recognized upon transfer of control to the customer when products are delivered, installed and accepted by the buyer, but now Berenbaum said this.

“Let me just get that out upfront. As I said, in general, we recognize product revenue on shipments that, you know, way back the company used to be divorced a little bit; we used to recognize more of our product revenue on customer acceptance. That shifted a while ago. So now in general, our product revenue is recognized on shipments.“

He added, “And using Bloom to do that is very advantageous for them, from a time to deployment permitting ease, reliability, not needing backups, are being air pollution free, therefore being able to get air permits. For all those reasons, they like our technology. And more importantly, if that growth is being driven by data centers, the reliability of our modular fault-tolerant architecture is unbeatable.”

RBC analyst Chris Dendrinos asked about a breakdown of the backlog between AI and C&I. While CFO Berenbaum bluntly said they were "not going to breakdown the components of the backlog specifically", CEO Shrider did provide some clues.

“I think, we've already given you that kind of numbers, is that roughly one-third of our deployed backlog of greater than 1 gigawatt is towards data centers. And what is happening is that sector obviously is growing a lot faster, than everybody else.”

CEO Shrider also added that Bloom Energy is not dependent on China for the supply chain when asked about tariff implications.

Natural Gas Infrastructure Favors Bloom Energy Servers

Colin Rusch asked an important question about natural gas infrastructure since most Bloom servers use natural gas (not hydrogen) as the primary fuel source. Rusch inquired how much of the backlog was dependent on the incremental execution of gas infrastructure put in place in 2025.

Management didn’t really have much of an answer, “Again, it is a big mix. When we look at quarter-to-quarter, what we implement it is about it like depends on how quickly the projects are ready. That's why we gave it, we give a range of numbers. It's not just whether we can build and ship, it is whether those projects are ready. In many places, it's available. In some places it takes months, and in other places it may be more than a year. So not a single answer to your question. It is across the board.”

Since most Bloom servers operate on natural gas, the infrastructure is important. Schrider talked about regions in the United States and access to natural gas. Very large installations are difficult to do in the Northeast (New York and Massachusetts) due to the lack of gas pipeline infrastructure. West Virginia and Pennsylvania have plenty of gas. He expects Virginia to be attractive and the Great Lakes in Michigan is a “sleeping giant”.

“Gas is available, the infrastructure is there. And our solution, without needing to add additional transmission, distribution, and making the average ratepayer incur that cost, is going to be politically very attractive. For all those reasons, we think that that's a great market for us going forward.”

While Gas Turbines Are Competitors, Nuclear is Not a Concern Until At Least 2030

The demand for onsite power has caused many data centers to turn to gas turbines, like the GE Vernova H-class, to power data centers near term, which is an alternative to Bloom. Natural gas turbines mix compressed air with natural gas ignited at temperatures exceeding 2000 degree Fahrenheit. The hot gas expands through rotating blades that spin the turbine to produce electricity. However, gas turbines emit a lot of carbon dioxide due to their combustion process, whereas Bloom energy servers produce an electrochemical reaction to generate electricity, with no combustion resulting in significantly less carbon emissions.

Management feels secure that they have a six to eight year before small modular reactors come to market. By then, hydrogen could also be more readily available as a economically efficient fuel source.

“We can't afford to wait for nuclear to come before we do AI. So that's what creates this opportunity for the next four to six to eight years. And for us, look, when nuclear comes, the hydrogen play becomes really interesting. Other things become really interesting. So we have pathways – where we can play with those dynamics,” said Berenbaum.

Mitigating Tariffs Headwind Impacts in 2025

When asked about input prices, supply chain and tariff impacts in 2025, Shridar acknowledges that tariffs are potential challenges in their attempts to reduce costs. Tariffs are an unpredictable factor that can impact their operations, but cost reduction is deeply embedded into its business model. This is exemplified by the consistent double-digit cost reductions for the past 12 years, excluding a year of the COVID-19 pandemic, through various methods. The Company recognizes the potential headwinds, but they can be mitigated with cost-reduction efforts relying on their supply chain.

“They come from various different mechanisms, from diversity of supply base, the geographies of where we procure our materials from the efficiency with, which we manufacture, the yield that we get, the engineering advances that we make, all those lead to a cost reduction. So while definitely tariff related issues can be a potential headwind for us, it's one of many factors and we as a company are committed to finding ways around, and still getting to cost reduction.” Bloom is also not overly dependent on China for its components, which offers resilience against potential geopolitical conflicts.

Conclusion: A Strong Growth Pipeline Can Bloom in 2025

Bloom Energy has a compelling story and after two decades, it appears like the stars are aligning for them. Their energy server costs continue to decline, leading to margin expansion. The AI data center boom is power hungry and the game changer deal with AEP enables them to partner with the utilities that are selling the electricity to the data centers. Time to power is definitely a competitive advantage for Bloom. They have demonstrated how they’ve cut time to power down from years to months. Natural gas infrastructure is also a key for them since most of their energy servers run on natural gas, and the United States is the world's largest producer of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Heat capture also boosts the efficiency of Bloom energy servers. We previously wrote.

“BES (Bloom Energy Server) is designed to work with existing carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) and combined heat and power (CHP) technologies. CCUS mitigates emissions from natural gas as BES generates a pure stream of CO2 that can be used or sequestered. CHP allows the exhaust heat generated by BES (operating at a core temperature of 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit or 800 degrees Celsius) to be channeled and made available for use, further increasing the efficiency of the system. The high-temperature exhaust stream can produce steam in addition to electricity, resulting in 90% lifetime total system efficiency by adding Heat Capture.”

It's also important to note the slight improvement in customer concentration expanding from their related party, SK ecoplant and SK Eternix. Customer concentration has improved. At the end of 2024, three customers accounted for 53% of total revenues, of which the related party SK ecoplant was 28%. This is a vast improvement from the end of 2023, where two customers accounted for 63% of total revenue, of which SK ecoplant accounted for 37%.

At the end of 2024, three customers accounted for 76% of total accounts receivables, of which its related party was 23%. This was a vast improvement from the end of 2023, where a single customer, related party SK ecoplant, accounted for 74% of total accounts receivables.

The potential 50% ITC for projects that started before 2025 are also a value proposition that provides a $2.5 million Product backlog floor and a $12 billion to $15 billion ceiling if fully exercised. Bloom didn’t mention much about the AEP deal and what amount of the 100 fuel cells were shipped in Q4. The dramatic revenue and cash flow surge was driven by collecting on SK ecoplant's account receivables rather than AEP orders. If this is the case, then the AEP deal provides a lot of upside in 2025, and management’s guidance may actually be a lowball.

Like the Chinese bamboo tree, 2025 may be the year Bloom Energy breaks ground and growth surges. The story gets more compelling.

Welcome to the I/O Fund’s new Discovery Tier, where we cover a new stock idea on a weekly or bi-monthly basis. We are excited to bring you more coverage from the I/O Fund team geared toward new idea generation only.

Jea Yu, Equity Analyst at the I/O Fund, contributed to this article.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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