Bitcoin
The long-term count has Bitcoin in a final 5th wave push, which will complete the bull market that started at the late 2022 low. To be more exact, I believe that we are in wave 4 of this final 5th wave. The 4th wave is targeting the $87,000 – $78,000 region. This drop can go as low as $75,000 and still support the above count. If we hold $75,000, I expect one final swing into the $114,000 – $150,000 region. If this happens, this is where we plan to reduce the remainder of our Bitcoin position. If we instead break below the $75,000 region in the continuation of this volatility, we will look to reduce our exposure on the bounces.
Nvidia
Nvidia is in a long-term secular bull market. However, like all secular bull markets, there are periods of volatility that can see a stock drop 30% – 60%. Apple, for example, launched the iPhone in June of 2007, and then dropped +60% In 2008 – 2009. It also saw several 40% and 30% drawdowns while remaining the primary beneficiary of the mobile phone tech trend. These were buying opportunities. Nvidia will not go higher in a straight line, and for those that are patient, we believe a better price for a long-term buy-and-hold strategy will likely manifest.
Until then, the current pattern we are in appears to be an ending diagonal for wave 5 off the 2022 low. If accurate, we should get another drop into the $126 – $116 region, which would then lead to a move into the $170 – $205 region. Our plan is to add on the coming drop, and trim if we get the expected 5th wave swing that will complete this ending diagonal pattern.
Taiwan Semiconductor
TSM also appears to be in an ending diagonal. The final 5th wave is targeting the $235 – $250 region. What we must be on the lookout for is an extended diagonal pattern. So, instead of being in wave 5, we might be in the early stages of wave 3. This would line up better with what we are seeing in the AI sector this year. This will depend on how explosive the next swing higher is.
We are also closely analyzing the supply chain to identify overlooked beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout, sharing this information as well as potential buy and sell plans and real time trade alerts with advanced signals members. Learn more here.here.
Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.