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Category: AI Stocks

Applied Optoelectronics Q3: Timing Miss yet Q4 Signals Inflection Point

Posted on November 6, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Applied Optoelectronics missed revenue by $1.2M for revenue of $118.6M expected compared to $119.9M reported. The miss was due to a timing issue with management stating data center revenue was “a touch below our expectations, largely due to the timing of certain shipments at quarter-end. In particular, we had approximately $6.6 million in shipments of 400G transceivers to a large hyperscale customer, which was not able to be turned into revenue during the quarter due to various shipping and receiving delays and which we have booked in Q4.”

Although the headline numbers are causing an aftermarket selloff, the call was quite clear that the company AOI (Nasdaq: AAOI) is preparing to grow shipments significantly. Most importantly, there were discussions of an “imminent” 800G qualification coming in the next few weeks with additional hints of very strong QoQ data center growth next quarter. The earnings call signaled an important inflection point in Q4 that is not accurately depicted in Q3 numbers. We cover this and more below!

The Importance of the 800G Qualification

AOI is expected to become a large supplier for 800G and 1.6T optics, especially for its customer Amazon with a deal worth $4B over ten years. However, the 800G qualification is expected to expand beyond Amazon with management stating: “we believe we are near the final stages of qualification with several customers. We expect qualification in the near term based on conversations that we are having with our customers, and we continue to believe that we will produce meaningful shipments of 800G products in the fourth quarter.”

When asked how soon the qualifications could occur, management used the word “imminent.” This is noteworthy because AOI faced timing delays in Q3, which meant the quarter reflected very little contribution from AI data center revenue. In fact, roughly 83% of data center sales came from 100G products, while only 9% came from 200G and 400G transceivers. If we take management’s commentary at face value, this sets up a potential inflection point for AOI, as 400G — and especially 800G — products carry higher sales prices that can accelerate growth. With qualifications now described as “imminent,” AOI may be entering the part of the product cycle where higher-speed optics begin to materially impact the top line.

This understanding was echoed by management with the following statement: “Looking ahead to Q4, we expect a substantial sequential increase in our data center revenue driven by growth in 400G revenue, as well as layering in some increased 800G revenue.” Later, management quantified their expectations: “That means the data center growth should be a lot, okay, since the revenue increased by about 10% compared to Q3. That means data center revenue will increase by $25-$40 million in Q4.” Given that data center was $43.9 million this quarter, that would imply 74% data center growth at the midpoint – a sharp contrast to the (2%) decline QoQ in data center revenue this quarter.

This is supported by additional color in terms of where the company is now on shipping volumes compared to where they expect to be by year-end and mid-year 2026:

Right now, we’re only talking about maybe 10,000, 20,000. It’s a volume still far away from, quite away from. That’s why I say by end of December, we should have 100,000 per month. By end of June next year, we have 200,000 per month.”

AOI is Building USA’s Largest 800G and 1.6T Laser Production Capacity

As covered previously, in OFC in April, AOI outlined one of the most impressive capacity expansion stats that we have seen: an 8.5x increase for 800G and 1.6T products by the end of the year, with management reaffirming in both Q1 and Q2 that they remain on track to reach said target. Capacity for these high-speed products is split between two facilities, one in Taipei, Taiwan and the other in Sugar Land, Texas. Overlaying potential 3x growth industry this year with 8.5x capacity growth for AOI implies the company is eyeing market share gains into year end persisting through 2026.

If 8.5X growth was not enough, AOI is going further and aiming to double capacity again by mid-2026, stating in Q2’s call that they are expecting to be able to produce >200K 800G/1.6T products per month, with the majority produced in Texas. This corresponds to annual production of ~2.4 million 800G/1.6T products, up more than 16x from less than 150K annually prior to these expansion plans.

The fact AOI is on the verge of a sharp ramp was a central theme on the call with management stating:

As a reminder, we expect this will culminate later this year with what we believe will be the largest domestic production capacity for 800G or 1.6 terabit transceivers, approximately 35,000 transceivers per month, or roughly 35% of our overall capacity for these advanced optical transceivers. Notably, we will be able to accommodate this expansion in our current Texas facility footprint. Further, by mid-2026, we continue to expect to be able to produce over 200,000 pieces per month, with the majority produced in Texas.”

The only change in tone the I/O Fund team could pick up on is the Texas facility is expected to now produce 35% of overall capacity compared to commentary in the previous earnings call that Texas would contribute 40% of overall capacity. In Q2, it was stated:

We continue to expect to exit this year with a production capacity of over 100,000 units of 800G transceivers per month, with 40% of this production being done in the US”

Last week, the company announced its $150M investment for expansion in Texas to increase its USA production over a five-year period:

The expansion project, when complete, will have the largest production capacity for AI-focused datacenter transceivers in the U.S.”

Timing for 400G, 800G and 1.6T

I’m earmarking AOI to (hopefully) make a splash starting next quarter and into Q2 2026. It’ll be an interesting three quarters as 400G is expected to carry the revenue in Q4, then 800G in early 2026 with 1.6T taking effect by Q2.

Here is what was stated on the earnings call:

If you look at our guidance, again, just kind of go back to the segment guidance that we gave. It implies a dramatic ramp in data center revenue in the fourth quarter. We didn’t give annual guidance for next year, but we certainly believe that’s the beginning of a sustained ramp. I think we’re exactly in sync with what you described. We’re seeing that ramp first at 800G, but as we talked about, later next year, we expect 1.6 to be a strong contributor as well.”

Financials

Revenue

AOI reported $118.6 million in revenue in Q3, slightly below estimates for $119.8 million and at the lower end of management’s guidance for $115 to $127 million. This represented growth of 15.2% QoQ and 82.1% YoY, decelerating from 137.9% YoY in the second quarter, driven by strong cable TV demand and the ramp of 1.8 GHz amplifier products as data center revenue was soft.

For Q4, AOI guided for revenue between $125 and $140 million, up 11.7% QoQ and 32.1% YoY, another sharp deceleration though this comes against much tougher comps. Management expects to recognize 800G revenue in the fourth quarter: “we continue to believe that we will produce meaningful shipments of 800G products in the fourth quarter.”

Key Segments

CATV (Cable TV):

CATV revenue surged 237.1% YoY and 26.1% QoQ to a record $70.6 million, with management characterizing demand as “exceptionally strong.”

Data Center:

Data center revenue was $43.9 million, up 7.3% YoY but down (1.9%) QoQ, with management explaining that this “came in a touch below our expectations, largely due to the timing of certain shipments at quarter end due to various shipping and receiving delays.” AOI also added that it is seeing increased orders for 100G and 400G products from several large customers, and expects increased demand for both through the end of the year.

According to the opening remarks, the split across products was “In the third quarter, 83% of data center revenue was from 100G products, 9% was from 200G and 400G transceiver products, and 7% was from 10G and 40G transceiver products.”

Telecom/Other:

Telecom revenue rose 33.7% YoY and 92.8% QoQ to $3.74 million, while other revenue was $0.35 million.

Margins

AOI showed a marginal sequential improvement in GAAP operating margin despite GAAP gross margin contracting, though the company is not meaningfully closer to GAAP profitability.

  • GAAP gross margin was 28.0%, down 2.3 points QoQ but up 3.6 points YoY. Adjusted gross margin was 31%, at the high end of guidance and up 0.6 points QoQ and 6 points YoY.
  • GAAP operating margin was (15.3%), a slight improvement from (15.5%) in Q2 and up more than 10 points YoY. Adjusted operating margin was (8.7%), improving 1.8 points QoQ and 9.2 points YoY.
  • GAAP net margin was (15.1%), down from (8.8%) in Q2 but up from (27.3%) in the year ago quarter. Adjusted net margin was (4.6%), below guidance for (3.3%) but marking an improvement from (8.6%) in Q2 and (13.5%) in the year ago quarter.

For Q4, management guided for adjusted gross margin to be 29-31%, down 1 point QoQ but up 1.3 points YoY at midpoint. Adjusted net margin was guided at (4.5%), approximately flat QoQ.

EPS

AOI met adjusted EPS estimates this quarter at ($0.09), though Q4’s guidance missed as the company is still forecasting a small loss whereas estimates were expecting a shift to profitability, albeit at a thin $0.03.

  • Q3 GAAP EPS was ($0.28), improving from ($0.42) in the year ago quarter but widening from ($0.16) in Q2. This missed estimates for ($0.10).
  • Q3 adjusted EPS met at ($0.09).
  • Q4 adjusted EPS was guided to be ($0.13) to ($0.04), short of consensus for $0.03.

Cash and Balance Sheet

Cash flows significantly improved from Q2, and inventories rose sharply once again, likely in preparation for the ramp of 800G products.

  • Q3 operating cash flow was ($28.5 million) for a (24%) margin, improving from a (63.6%) margin in Q2 but down slightly from (22.2%) a year ago.
  • Q3 free cash flow was ($57.5 million) for a (48.5%) margin, improving from (101.3%) in Q2 but still lower from (32%) a year ago.
  • Cash and equivalents totaled $150.7 million and debt totaled $192.1 million.
  • Inventories were $170.2 million, up 22.5% or $31.3 million QoQ. Since Q1, inventories have risen by ~$68 million.

Conclusion:

If the market were always on our side, investing would be easy. What we’re seeing this quarter is a reminder that even when a company’s story remains intact, the market can still get the jitters. This stock, however, continues to get a green light from me across the board — the headline “miss” was a non-issue (on the contrary – it’s a boon for the strong QoQ commentary on Q4). Looking ahead, shipments are on track to increase 16X over the next year, kicking off soon with key 800G qualifications only weeks away. Management is feeling comfy enough to include 800G in the Q4 guide — a meaningful signal. Of course, nothing is ever certain in investing. But based on what I heard this evening, this is not a report I’m concerned about.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own shares in Applied Optoelectronics at the time of writing and may own stocks pictured in the charts.

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Posted in AI Stocks, Data CenterLeave a Comment on Applied Optoelectronics Q3: Timing Miss yet Q4 Signals Inflection Point

Vertiv Q3: Orders Surge 60% YoY, 20% QoQ, FY25 Guidance Raised

Posted on November 3, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Thematic: 8/10
Fundamentals: 8/10
Valuation: 3/10

Brief Overview 

Vertiv will not win any hypergrowth stock awards, especially as management has previously offered CAGR guidance of 15% to 17% through 2029. Rather, it’s where Vertiv is positioned as an AI infrastructure partner especially as the trend turns toward modular infrastructure that makes this a stock to watch.  Essentially, all roads point toward Vertiv’s power and thermal solutions becoming increasingly important for future generations of rack scale solutions, with the company already preparing 800V DC solutions for Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra platform due in 2027. 

Revenue 

Vertiv reported revenue up 29% YoY and 1% QoQ to $2.676 billion, well ahead of its original guidance for 23% growth in the third quarter. This was driven by 43% YoY growth in the Americas on accelerated AI demand and 20% growth in APAC.  

For Q4, Vertiv guided for revenue to be $2.81 billion to $2.89 billion, up 6.5% QoQ and 18-22% YoY at the $2.85 billion midpoint. While this was ahead of previous guidance for $2.735 to $2.815 billion, this would still represent a nine point deceleration on the topline at midpoint. Management expects Americas revenue to be up high-30s, APAC up mid-single digits and EMEA down high single digits but up mid-teens QoQ. 

The strong outperformance in Q3 also led to Vertiv hiking its FY25 revenue guidance from $10 billion at midpoint to $10.2 billion at midpoint, pointing to organic growth of 26-28% YoY. Management did not provide any direct insight into FY26, though they did say that based on the “substantial backlog and clear visibility of pipeline, we anticipate continued significant organic sales growth in 2026,” with EMEA potentially reaccelerating in 2H 2026. 

AI Revenue Metrics 

Vertiv’s backlog rose ~30% YoY and 12% QoQ to $9.5 billion, reaccelerating from 21% YoY growth last quarter. More importantly, the $1 billion sequential increase in backlog was the largest in more than two years. However, one of the stronger metrics was order growth, with Vertiv reporting organic orders up 60% YoY and 20% QoQ in Q3. This drove a ten point rebound in TTM organic order growth to 21% YoY, from 11% in Q2. 

However, starting in Q4, Vertiv will no longer report on quarterly orders and backlog information, and instead will report a new metric “projected full year orders.”  

The following was stated in Q2: “Beginning on our Q4 and full year 2025 earnings call, we will provide projected full year orders rather than quarterly orders and backlog information. We believe this better aligns with how we run our business. We will provide updates on the full year projections quarterly as we progress through the year and as we deem necessary.”  This could create a boost to Vertiv’s stock to remove the lumpiness from quarterly reports and to also be more forward looking in terms of visibility offered to investors.  

Earnings 

Vertiv reported adjusted EPS up 63% YoY to $1.25 in the quarter, beating the $0.99 estimate by 25%. GAAP EPS of $1.02 beat estimates by 16.7%. For Q4, adjusted EPS was guided to decelerate to 27% growth to $1.26 at midpoint.  

For the full year, Vertiv raised its adjusted EPS forecast to $4.07 to $4.13, up from its prior view for $3.75 to $3.85. At midpoint, this represented a nearly 8% hike, now pointing to 44% YoY growth versus 33% previously.  

Margins 

Vertiv reported expanding margins across the board in Q3, though Q4 is expected to be approximately flat for adjusted operating margin.  

  • Gross margin was 37.8%, up 1.3 points YoY and 3.8 points QoQ. 
  • GAAP operating margin was 19.3%, up 1.4 points YoY and 2.5 points QoQ. Adjusted operating margin was 22.3%, up 2.2 points YoY and 3.8 points QoQ, driven by tariff mitigation efforts and strong execution addressing operational inefficiencies.  
  • Net margin was 14.9%, up 6.4 points YoY and 2.6 points QoQ. 

For Q4, adjusted operating margin was guided to be up 0.9 points YoY and approximately flat QoQ at 22.4%, as “progress addressing operational inefficiencies [is] offset by acceleration in growth investments and negative impact from new tariffs.” This is a rather steep decrease from Q2’s guidance for 23.6%, which would’ve been its best adjusted operating margin print since going public in 2020.  

For FY25, Vertiv slightly raised its adjusted operating margin forecast by 0.2 points at midpoint to 20.2%, representing YoY expansion of 0.8 points. This is strong as it comes in the face of “significant headwinds from tariffs and operational inefficiencies driven by supply chain actions to mitigate tariffs.” Tariff impacts are expected to be materially offset exiting Q1 ’26. 

Cash 

Vertiv reported strong cash flows in Q3, with operating cash flow of $508.7 million, up nearly 36% YoY. OCF margin was 19%, up 1.8 points YoY and 6.8 points QoQ. 

Q3 adjusted free cash flow was $462 million, up 32% YoY. Adjusted FCF margin was 17.3%, up 1.1 points YoY and 6.8 points QoQ. Q4 adjusted FCF was guided to be $496 million for a 17.4% margin, up marginally from Q3. Vertiv boosted its adjusted FCF guidance by $100 million, now forecasting $1.5 billion for the year, up from $1.4 billion previously. This corresponds to a 14.7% margin.  

Accounts receivable dipped (1%) QoQ to $2.81 billion, while inventories rose less than 2% YoY to $1.43 billion. 

Cash, equivalents and investments totaled $1.94 billion, while debt totaled $2.90 billion. 

Valuation 

Vertiv is trading at peak multiples on the top line, and slightly below peak on the bottom line. Vertiv’s forward PS is 7.2x, above its late 2024 peak of 6.8x, and substantially higher than its April low at 2.2x forward PS. 

On the bottom line, Vertiv is just below peak multiples, at 47.3x forward earnings versus its peak at 52.5x.  

Notable Risks 

Vertiv’s extended valuation is a primary risk as the company contends with a sharper deceleration on the top line heading into Q4, as well as a sharp deceleration in EPS growth from 63% in Q3 to 27% in Q4. Margins are also a line item to watch, considering management had guided for a Q4 adjusted operating margin of 23.6% back in Q2 but then subsequently cut that guide to 22.4% in Q3. 

Conclusion: 

The current quarter was not a showstopper as we prefer to be allocated more heavily to stocks that are showing signs of imminent Blackwell participation. However, Vertiv remains one to watch as the backlog increasing 12% QoQ and order growth increasing 20% QoQ could be signaling an inflection.

Damien Robbins, Equity Analyst at I/O Fund contributed to this analysis.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Posted in AI Stocks, Data CenterLeave a Comment on Vertiv Q3: Orders Surge 60% YoY, 20% QoQ, FY25 Guidance Raised

Reddit Q3: Setting a High Bar with Top Line Strength and 10-point Sequential Margin Expansion 

Posted on October 31, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Reddit’s earnings report ticked a lot of boxes. The company beat on the top line with growth of 68% YoY and 17% QoQ. The bottom line was also strong with a 10-point sequential expansion in GAAP operating margin to 23.7%, an adjusted EBITDA margin above 40%, and EPS grew 400% YoY. It’s easy to see why this stock ranked very high on my Top 15 list – in fact, it was my top software choice due to the clean fundamentals.  

Reddit represents monetization momentum in the AI era as its data is highly valuable for training LLMs. There is something far more important that Reddit provides in the AI era than simply a forum; rather Reddit offers a continuous supply of human-generated conversations. What was once a forum is now a wealth of opinions and loads of sentiment that AI models desperately need to produce more natural and sentient-sounding responses. In fact, about a week ago, Reddit announced they are suing companies like Perplexity and Anthropic for scraping their site.  

In exchange for data, Reddit ranks high on Google Search and in AI search results from Open AI, as well. This has helped Reddit move from #85 ranked site to #2 when we last covered the stock. Management stated they are currently ranked #3 this month: “Today, Reddit is the #3 most visited site in the U.S. for Semrush October 2025. That puts us in a rare company. YouTube is #2 and Amazon is #4.” The increased search ranking helped Reddit grow both their daily active users (DAUq) and weekly active users (WAUq) at a rate of 20% YoY.  

With that said, Reddit’s report was not a Perfect 10 – it was more like a 9 out of 10. First, the logged-out user growth is outpacing the logged-in user growth, which will take some getting used to for Street analysts as they often imply in the Q&A that logged-out users don’t monetize as well.  

Second, Reddit has put up some strong post-IPO growth rates with five quarters above 60% growth, yet management guided for 54% revenue growth next quarter and analysts see Reddit dipping below 40% growth two quarters out. We will want to watch this closely as IPOs are known for coming strong out of the gate. As stated in the Top 15 report, every stock must prove it belongs in our portfolio. Therefore, Reddit will need to prove to us that it can maintain a healthy growth rate to hold its spot. There are some strong tailwinds, yet accelerating revenue in the near future will be key for this stock. 

Reddit’s Future Growth Opportunities – Search and More 

A study by Profound from August 2024 to June 2025 of 30 million citations across ChatGPT, Google AI Overviews, and Perplexity revealed that the latter two frequently cited Reddit, while ChatGPT primarily cited Wikipedia. Reddit was the top citation for Google’s AI Overviews at 21% and for Perplexity at 46.7%, while at ChatGPT, Reddit was the second most cited source at 11.3%, far behind Wikipedia at 47.9%.  

However, per Promptwatch, Reddit’s share of citations on ChatGPT fell from ~14% in early September down to 2-4%. As of mid-October, Reddit remained the most frequently cited social platform at 3.3%, slightly behind Profound’s data showing 3.8%.  

Source: Promptwatch 

Overall, the vast treasure trove of Reddit’s user-generated, opinionated content backed by structed engagement data is increasingly valuable to LLMs, as Reddit executives explained at the Zero Click Summit in October. This could lead to more lucrative licensing deals in the future. 

Management implied Q4 is looking strong so far on growth trends: “Looking into Q4, we exited Q3 higher than our average. So we have a head start. Beyond that, we're going to see how the quarter plays out.” 

There was also discussion on the call about reducing friction as Reddit’s onboarding is fairly clunky and invasive in terms of accessing content a user wants to see: “But today, it's behind a couple of screens of interrogation before you actually get to see it. And so really streamlining that or even removing it are the things that we're putting in the test shortly and making sure users are landing on speeds that are relevant to them.”  

Later, it was discussed that knowing personal information on a user may not necessarily lead to a higher path of monetization for Reddit, which leaves an important clue as to how Reddit could spark future growth – from what I gather, removing the need to be logged in could be Reddit’s next step to driving more growth: “And finally, I think your third question was capturing identity of logged out users. Look, all of Reddit is really built around this idea of connecting users with their interests. So not necessarily what or who they are, but what they're into on Reddit. And so that's how we're different than some other platforms. We don't need to know who you are or necessarily even how old you are or other demographics because we look at your explicit interest on Reddit, right? Are you part of the skiing community, you're probably in the outdoor stuff. Are you coming from a parenting blog, you're probably a parent. And so that's generally how we think about it. And I think it's a little bit of a different model, but I think it's better for user privacy, and we can target on, I think, a unique but really powerful dimension.” 

Reddit’s Web Rankings, Engagement Remain Solid Since Q2 

As a brief recap, Reddit was the 2nd most visible site August, behind Wikipedia, and ahead of popular sites such as Facebook in 7th, Amazon in 4th, and even YouTube in 3rd. In October, Reddit’s web rankings continue to remain strong, with Sistrix placing it as the third most visible site as of October 30, with YouTube taking the 2nd place spot.  

In terms of user engagement, Reddit notched 3.8 billion visits in September, down (5.4%) MoM after rising 1.5% MoM in August, per Similarweb, slightly underperforming Facebook, which saw monthly visits decline (4.7%) MoM to 11.4 billion. In the US, Reddit’s web traffic was estimated to be down (5.8%) MoM in September, versus (5.1%) for Facebook. Similarweb places Reddit as the fifth-most visited site in the US, behind Facebook in fourth place.  

However, it’s important to remember that this is a factor that’s entirely out of Reddit’s control as algorithms and rankings could change anytime. 

Reddit Sues Perplexity for ‘Illegal’ Data Scraping 

Despite being Perplexity’s preferred source for AI searches, Reddit sued the startup in early October, claiming it was scraping data from Reddit without permission to train its AI responses. Reddit claims that it created a “test post” that was only visible to Google’s crawler, but “within hours”, Perplexity’s queries contained contents of the post, suggesting Perplexity or its three data scraping partners scraped Google and then incorporated that data into its engine. 

Rumors of New Data Licensing Pricing with Google, OpenAI 

In mid-September, it was rumored that Reddit was exploring new data licensing deals with Google and OpenAI, with company executives believing current terms with fixed pay do not accurately reflect the value Reddit brings to AI answers, tying in to its high share in AI citations.  

Instead, the company is rumored to be seeking a dynamic pricing model “where pay would be determined by how useful or important content is to the answers generated by AI tools.” This could provide more upside to Reddit’s data licensing side, which currently accounts for 6% of revenue in Q3, considering how frequently it is cited in AI Overviews and on ChatGPT. 

Most importantly, the revenue contribution from Reddit’s partnership with Google is not reported in a linear fashion. During the call, an analyst noted that roughly half of Reddit’s traffic is direct, while half comes from Google. Management confirmed the 50/50 split is “approximate, but pretty close.” This means Reddit is receiving an additional benefit from Google that isn’t fully visible within the data licensing revenue line item – rather, it’s mainly visible in the strong advertising growth from the traffic Google is sending to Reddit. Overall, the true impact of Reddit’s partnership with Google is hard to quantify.  

Strong Q3 Revenue Growth of 68% 

Reddit once again reported stellar revenue growth of 67.9% YoY and 17.1% QoQ to $584.9 million. Revenue growth was more than 60% for the fifth consecutive quarter. The company’s Q3 revenue beat the analyst’s estimates by 6.4%. The strong growth was primarily driven by 74% YoY growth in the advertising revenue to $549 million. While its other revenues, which include licensing deals with Google and OpenAI, rose by a modest 7% YoY to $36 million. Regionally, revenue grew 67% and 74% YoY in the US and internationally, respectively. 

The company has also guided strong Q4 guidance in the range of $655 million to $665 million, representing a YoY growth of 54.3% YoY and 12.8% QoQ. The company’s Q4 guide beat the analysts’ estimates by 3.5%. Analysts expect revenue to grow 42% YoY in Q1 and 34.8% YoY in Q2 to $673.6 million. 

The co-founder and CEO, Steven Huffman, highlighted during the earnings call that Reddit is the #3 most visited site in the U.S. per Semrush, October 2025. The company is also making strong progress across the 3 focus areas they shared last quarter: core product, search, and internationalization. 

The company has redesigned the website with a more modern, search-forward interface and streamlined onboarding, making it easier for new users to find what they're looking for. This is achieved through a dynamic, personalized home feed, along with the incorporation of AI tools.  The company also continues to enhance search results to make Reddit a go-to search destination. Third, international growth continues to accelerate, and AI-powered machine translation is now available in 30 languages, serving as a major driver of top-of-funnel growth outside the U.S.   

Looking forward, analysts expect revenue to grow 35.8% YoY to $2.83 billion in 2026 and 29% YoY growth to $3.65 billion in 2027. 

Advertising Revenue Growth of 74% 

The Q3 advertising revenue grew by 74% YoY to $549 million, primarily driven by broad-based strength across the business as the company continues to expand existing relationships, acquire new customers and diversify its advertising base. The total active advertising customers grew by over a solid 75% YoY as the company added new accounts across businesses, including large mid-market and SMB businesses.  

The company’s AI-optimized ad platform continues to drive strong growth in the second half of the year. The strong advertising revenue growth is a direct result of Reddit’s ongoing investments in AI ad models and formats, which drive greater performance and efficiency, leading to better ROI for advertisers.  

The company continued to optimize the models for lower-funnel objectives, including app installs and conversions. The ML-driven optimizations in the lower-funnel conversion objective improved performance by over 20%. To strengthen the lower-funnel strategy, it continues to make it easier for businesses of all sizes to adopt the measurement tools, including Pixel and conversions API (CAPI). In Q3, CAPI-covered conversion revenue tripled year-over-year. 

For the upper funnel, the company launched the beta of auto bidding, which simplifies budget management and improves efficiency, leading to over 15% more impressions and lower pricing for advertisers. In the middle and lower funnel, auto targeting is delivering strong results, and adoption is growing over 50% year-over-year. 

ARPU grows by 41% 

The company’s Q3 Average revenue per user (ARPU) grew by 41% YoY to $5.04. Management believes that this is still low on an absolute basis and remains an opportunity for the company. Though growth has decelerated from 47% reported in Q2 due to tough comps, it was up 11% on a sequential basis. 

The US ARPU grew by 54% YoY to $9.04, a 5-point deceleration from a strong 59% YoY growth in Q2. However, it grew by 15% sequentially. 

The International ARPU grew by 39% YoY to $1.84, a slight deceleration from the 40% growth reported in Q2 and was up 6% sequentially.

The company’s Daily Active Uniques (DAUq) are witnessing strong international growth. The Daily Active Uniques (DAUq) global grew by 19% YoY to 116 million. While US growth is stabilizing as it grew by 7% YoY to 51.6 million, it showed a sequential growth of 3%, while it was flat in Q2. The international DAUq growth was solid as it was up 31% YoY to 64.4 million.   

The company’s Weekly Active Uniques (WAUq) grew by 21% YoY to 443.8 million. International growth outpaced US growth as it grew by 37% YoY to 256 million, while the US grew by 6% YoY to 187.8 million. 

Operating Margins Expand 21.7% YoY 

The company is experiencing strong profit growth, primarily driven by operating leverage.  

  • Q3 gross profits grew by 69.7% YoY to $532.4 million with a gross margin of 91%. The gross margin is up 90 basis points YoY and up 20 basis points sequentially. The company reported its fifth consecutive quarter of above 90% gross margins. 
  • Operating income was $138.5 million compared to a mere $6.9 million in the same period last year. Operating margin improved by 21.7 percentage points YoY and 10.1 percentage points sequentially to 23.7%, primarily driven by operating leverage. 
  • Net income grew by 444% YoY and up 82.1% QoQ to $162.6 million. Net profit margin improved by 19.2 percentage points YoY and 9.9 percentage points sequentially to 27.8%. 

EPS grew by 400% 

The company’s Q3 GAAP EPS grew by 400% YoY and 78% sequentially to $0.80, beating analyst estimates by a solid 53.8%. Analysts expect EPS to grow 119.6% YoY to $0.79 in Q4 and 226.7% YoY growth to $0.42 in Q1 2026. Looking forward, they expect EPS to grow 76.3% YoY to $3.35 in 2026 and 39.9% YoY to $4.69 in 2027. 

Q3 adjusted EBITDA grew by 151% YoY to $236 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 13.3 percentage points YoY and 6.9 percentage points sequentially to 40.3%, beating the management guidance by 5.1 percentage points. 

Management has guided Q4 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $275 million to $285 million, representing a YoY growth of 81.5% at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA margin guide for Q4 is 42.4%, which represents a YoY increase of 6.3 percentage points.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet 

The company reported strong cash flows primarily driven by record profits.  

  • Q3 operating cash flows grew by 158.6% YoY to $185.16 million with an operating cash flow margin of 31.7%, up 11.1 percentage points YoY. 
  • Q3 free cash flows grew by 160.5% YoY to $183.1 million, with a free cash flow margin of 31.3%, up 11.1 percentage points YoY. The company generated $510 million in free cash flows in the last twelve months. 
  • The company has a strong balance sheet of $2.23 billion in cash and no debt. The cash increased by $170 million sequentially. 

Conclusion: 

The true impact of Reddit’s partnership with Google is hard to exactly quantify given it’s more about the traffic Reddit receives than the licensing revenue – however, web rankings help support that Reddit has officially arrived in the AI era. The primary reason that Reddit could remain in a leading position longer than one might imagine is the uniqueness of the data. As the COO stated: “I think Reddit's corpus of information is clearly incredibly valuable and helpful to LLMs because it's human conversation that's fresh, it's authentic. It's just distinctive. There's nothing like it.” 

Reddit delivered one of the strongest prints of the season so far: a top-line and bottom-line beat, nearly 10-point margin expansion sequentially, cash flow margins above 30%, ARPU up 41% YoY, and revenue increasing 17% QoQ. Although Reddit reported early in the earnings season, the company has set a remarkably high bar — one that very few tech companies will be able to keep up with as more earnings results continue to roll in.

I/O Fund Equity Analysts Damien Robbins and Royston Roche contributed to this analysis. 

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Posted in AI Stocks, SoftwareLeave a Comment on Reddit Q3: Setting a High Bar with Top Line Strength and 10-point Sequential Margin Expansion 

Applied Optoelectronics: Targeting 8.5x Capacity Growth by Year-end 

Posted on October 15, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Applied Optoelectronics (AOI) (NASDAQ: AAOI) is a lesser-known optical component and transceiver supplier. The small-cap has recently caught our attention for its hyperscaler deals and its ambitious capacity growth targets, aiming to become one of the largest domestic manufacturers for 800G transceivers.  

The VSCEL laser, EML chip, and optical transceiver supplier has provided some of the strongest commentary for future growth, with management outlining 8.5x capacity growth by year-end and substantial capacity growth in 2026. This builds upon a comment slipped into Q1’s call that AOI believes it can become the largest 800G/1.6T optics supplier to Amazon, after signing a deal in March that management says is worth more than $4 billion over ten years.  

AOI also stood out from its 40% QoQ growth in data center revenue in Q2, though this came after a soft Q1 affected by inventory digestion at its largest hyperscale customer and seasonality. Interestingly, data center was not the core driver of growth in Q2, with cable TV taking the reins with 8x YoY growth in the quarter. Cable TV is expected to provide an additional lever of growth come 2026, with management tentatively outlining early visibility into $300M+ in demand.  

The crux with AOI is that cash flows are much softer than more-established AI networking stocks, and GAAP margins are still negative. However, it’s hard to argue with the implications from the profound expansion in capacity and how optics growth can transform margins.  

Plotting Out the Optical Opportunity

Here’s a quick recap from our first thematic coverage on optical interconnects from over a year ago and why optical components would become a necessity as AI workloads rise.  

Copper had long been standard for data center interconnects, but it cannot support network speeds of 800 gigabits (800G) to 1.6 terabits (1.6T) over long distances due to substantial signal loss. This isn’t to say copper is dead – Nvidia’s GB200 NVL72 utilized copper over optics (with more than 2 miles of copper cabling in the rack) to reduce power consumption by 20 kw (the system still draws 120kw of power). According to a representative from Marvell’s Cloud Optics division, “optical is the only technology that can give you the bandwidth and reach needed to connect hundreds and thousands and tens of thousands of servers across the whole data center.” 

Optical transceivers are crucial in enabling high-speed data transfer, by transmitting and receiving data from optical (light) signals to electrical signals. In data centers, optical interconnects and transceivers are becoming the de facto standard to handle AI workloads, since they can function at significantly higher speeds than copper (currently  at 800G+ speeds and moving quickly to 1.6T), with longer range, higher data capacity, and lower latency with minimal signal loss. One drawback, however, is that due to the electronic complexity of optical products, costs are higher as well as power consumption versus copper.  

To read the full analysis on optical interconnects, click here. 

Major optics manufacturer Innolight reportedly raised its forecast for global 800G unit shipments by 50%, now seeing 15 million shipments globally for 2025, up from 10 million previously. Other reports out of China were more optimistic, with one firm projecting >16 million 800G shipments this year with 1.6T demand exceeding 5 million units, and another projecting demand for 17 million 800G and 4 million 1.6T units. FS had placed a rough estimate of 5 million shipments for 800G products in 2024, so these projections would represent >3X growth YoY if they come to fruition.  

Nvidia’s math also aligns with the upper end of those demand scenarios for >800G transceivers for scale-out connectivity, with the GPU leader claiming a 1:6 GPU-to-transceiver ratio for 100K 4-GPU servers. Nvidia states that this scenario, with 400K total GPUs, would require 2.4 million transceivers.  

Nvidia estimates that optical module requirements for scale-out networks may be at a ratio 1:6 per GPU. Source: Nvidia via The Next Platform 

While a majority of Nvidia’s shipments are likely to focus on the 72-GPU rack-scale solutions rather than smaller servers, a rough estimate for 750,000 servers, or 3 million GPUs (less than half of Nvidia’s estimated 2025 unit shipments), would project 18 million in transceiver demand solely to meet Nvidia’s needs. 

For intra-rack connections for the GB200 NVL72, reports suggest that “the ratio of GPUs to 1.6T optical transceivers is 1:2 in the dual-layer InfiniBand network and 1:3 in the three-layer InfiniBand network. Compared to the DGX H100, the NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 architecture doubles the port speed for servers and switches, significantly advancing the adoption of 1.6T transceivers and increasing the need for the 1.6T network.” Assuming roughly 30,000 NVL72 units in demand, this would project to between 4.32 million to 6.48 million 1.6T transceivers for intra-rack connections.  

AOI Targeting 8.5X Capacity Growth for 800G/1.6T Products by Year-end 

At OFC in April, AOI outlined one of the most impressive capacity expansion stats that we have seen: an 8.5x increase for 800G and 1.6T products by the end of the year, with management reaffirming in both Q1 and Q2 that they remain on track to reach said target. Capacity for these high-speed products is split between two facilities, one in Taipei, Taiwan and the other in Sugar Land, Texas. Overlaying potential 3x growth industry this year with 8.5x capacity growth for AOI implies the company is eyeing market share gains into year end persisting through 2026. 

Below is how AOI’s management is charting out the growth in capacity, with consistent monthly expansion taking it to its 8.5x target:  

Capacity growth figures are relative to a March 2025 baseline for Taiwan production and a September 2025 baseline for Texas production. Source: AOIAOI 

Note that these figures are cumulative, meaning that AOI is essentially targeting 2.35x more capacity by June from its March baseline in Taiwan for its 800G 2xFR4/DR8 product, before scaling to 3.65x by August and so forth. This is also the case in Texas, where AOI is targeting the start of production in September (100%), before scaling 4x by December. Equipment that was ordered in Q1 was said to be arriving as of Q2, further supporting this expansion effort. 

Putting this in perspective, the 8.5x growth is targeting approximately 100K monthly capacity globally of 800G/1.6T products by year-end, according to management. This suggests that capacity earlier in 2025 was roughly 12K per month. AOI expects ~40% of 800G production to be domestic at its Texas facility, which they believe will make them one of the largest domestic manufacturers. More importantly, AOI says they can accommodate this expansion under its current facility footprint, saving on capex.  

Management Eyeing 2X Growth in 2026 

If 8.5X growth was not enough, AOI is going further and aiming to double capacity again by mid-2026, stating in Q2’s call that they are expecting to be able to produce >200K 800G/1.6T products per month, with the majority produced in Texas. This corresponds to annual production of ~2.4 million 800G/1.6T products, up more than 16x from less than 150K annually prior to these expansion plans. Compared to market leaders Innolight and Eoptolink, where monthly capacity is estimated at 500K and 300K units respectively (for annual capacity of ~9.6M), AOI still lags but is quickly catching up. The company believes it holds an advantage from its vertically-integrated model with in-house laser and subassembly manufacturing, along with substantial factory automation that allow it to quickly ramp capacity to this degree.  

Based on Nvidia’s calculations, AAOI alone may be able to support 400K GPU shipments at full capacity, or more than 5% of UBS’ estimate for Nvidia’s GPU shipments of 7.4 million next year. More importantly, none of this capacity so far, not even the 8.5X growth, has translated into revenue, with 800G contribution immaterial to revenue as of Q2 as products remain in the qualification stage.  

While pricing is unknown, an analyst had questioned management about the ramp of 800G/1.6T products in Q1 and penciled in $0.75/gig: “But I guess rough math, yeah, $0.75 a gig, that would be well over $100 million in a quarter. Am I doing something wrong in that thinking?” The question was quickly shot down by management, yet assuming pricing at this degree as the market becomes more competitive through 2026 provides an interesting look into the potential growth ahead for AOI. 

Assuming by Q3, AOI is operating at max capacity of 200,000 pieces per month, with 80% of those being 800G and 20% 1.6T. This would roughly project ~$96 million monthly revenue for 800G products and ~$48 million monthly revenue for 1.6T products, assuming capacity is sold out.  

On a quarterly basis, this would be north of $430 million in quarterly revenue simply from >800G products, not including 400G or cable TV, already more than double current consensus estimates for $194 million in Q3 and $217 million in Q4. 

More Clarity on 800G Ramp, 1.6T 

Considering the combination of commentary for >16X capacity growth for 800G and 1.6T products in just one year and the fact that the opportunity is squarely ahead, tracking the timing and scale of this revenue ramp is critical. Based on commentary from Q2, 800G accounted for, at maximum, 1% of data center revenue, considering shipments were only for qualification purposes.  

Management said that they “continue to believe that we will produce meaningful shipments of 800G products sometime in the second half of 2025, likely in late Q3 or Q4. The schedule is constrained by our ability to build and qualify production capacity. We believe that the demand for 800G is strong, and we expect that when our production is ready, we will see a fairly quick ramp in revenue for 800G.” 

The timing of the ramp comes down to two factors: AOI has to have meaningful production capacity available in order to quickly shift to volume production, and also wait for its prospective customers to finish production qualification. October and November are expected to see larger jumps in production capacity, with Taiwan capacity rising from 5x to 8.3x, and Texas up to 3x from its baseline, suggesting the ramp is imminent yet pending the conclusion of qualification. 

AOI believes that one of its major hyperscale customers is in the final stages for securing 800G qualification, having recently audited and approved AOI’s Taiwan factory for 800G production. This adds an additional layer of confidence that the revenue ramp for 800G is near, as management expects that this customer could become a >10% customer in Q3. 

For 1.6T, AOI expects to kick off volume manufacturing around June to July 2026, noting that it is already working with several customers and expects to have a minimum of three tier 1 customers. All three are pre-existing customers, so this could include Microsoft, Amazon or possibly even Oracle.  

Another reason that the ramp of 800G and 1.6T is important is tied to margins: management explained that for 1.6T, gross margins should be above 40%, while 800G margins should be close to 40%. As discussed further below in the Financials section, AOI’s current gross margin is hovering at 30%, meaning a strong ramp for these products will drive gross and likely operating and net margins higher – management has guided for 35% to 40% gross margins by the end of 2026 and these products will be crucial to reach that.  

$4 Billion, 10-Year Amazon Deal Requires >$400M Annual Scale 

AOI shares surged in early March when the company announced that it signed a 10-year supply deal with an Amazon subsidiary, widely understood to be AWS, while offering the company warrants for 7.94 million shares. 

This is not AOI’s first long-term agreement with a major hyperscaler for data center products – the company signed a five-year supply agreement with Microsoft in 2023 for >400G products through 2028, and expects revenue from this contract to increase in 2025 relative to 2024. Terms for the Microsoft deal were not disclosed. 

AOI has disclosed additional details about the Amazon deal: 1.32 million shares vested upon the signing of the agreement, but the remaining 6.62 million shares may vest over the next 10 years “dependent on aggregate purchases by Amazon of $4 billion of our products over this time period.” CEO Thompson Li said in Q1 that he believes the deal could be “much more than $4 billion in the next 10 years.” This would correspond to annual revenue on average of at least $400 million solely from Amazon. 

Q2 had quite an interesting snippet from management regarding the deal: 

“Our belief, our expectation, is that we can grow to be, the largest supplier of 800G and faster, higher data rate optics for Amazon. Now, that's not guaranteed by any means, but I don't see any reason why we couldn't be there. And that would imply a market share; typically, they're going to have two or three suppliers, so that would be, maybe 30, maybe even up to 40%.” 

This quote is very important as it indicates the Amazon deal could create a long-term, high-volume customer contributing hundreds of millions in annual revenue, it also signals product validation from an industry leader and could lead to future supply deals, assuming capacity supports it. 

Significant Customer Concentration a Risk to Consider 

AOI exhibits a higher degree of risk related to its significant customer concentration, with its top ten customers accounting for 98% of revenue in Q2, a slight increase from 94% in the year ago quarter.  

AOI’s largest customer was in its CATV segment, contributing 54% of total revenue, while its second largest customer was in its data center segment and contributed 34% of total revenue. These two customers alone, likely Digicomm and Microsoft based on prior revenue trends, combined for 88% of revenue. As mentioned previously, management believes they could have a third >10% customer in Q3, a major hyperscaler for 400G and 800G products. 

Oracle was previously a >10% customer as recently as 2024, contributing 12.4% of total revenue last year, up from 8.8% in 2023. Microsoft had contributed nearly 44% of revenue as AOI’s largest singular customer in 2024, while Digicomm accounted for 34%, suggesting the recent growth in CATV has swapped its position.  

High China Revenue Concentration 

AOI has elevated China revenue exposure, which raises risk considering that geopolitical tensions are flaring up again. In Q2, China contributed $62.4 million in revenue, up 403% YoY and accounting for nearly 61% of revenue, with this likely driven by the growth in cable TV. Taiwan revenue was $39.5 million, up 37% YoY to 38% of revenue.  

On the other hand, AOI is aiming to reduce its China content in its transceivers to near zero as they scale production, with current China content at <10% for its 800G and 1.6T products. AOI says that a majority of its key components for these products, such as laser chips, are already manufactured in the US.  

Financials 

Revenue 

AOI reported revenue of $102.95 million in Q2, up 138% YoY and 3% QoQ, representing a modest (2.7%) miss versus consensus estimates. This was a slight deceleration from 146% growth in the previous quarter. Cable TV was the primary growth driver with revenue up 862% YoY to $56 million, while data center revenue rose 30% YoY to $44.8 million.  

For Q3, AOI guided for revenue to be between $115 million to $127 million, pointing to 86% YoY growth at midpoint, though on a sequential basis this is a sharp uptick to 17% QoQ growth. Management expects that there may be some initial contribution from 800G modules late in the quarter: “Looking ahead to Q3, we expect a sequential increase in our datacenter revenue, driven by continued growth in our 100G and 400G products with the possibility of layering some additional increased 800G revenue late in the quarter.” 

For fiscal 2025, revenue is currently projected to be $467.3 million, up 87.4% YoY, before slowing to 55.9% growth in fiscal 2026 to $728.4 million. However, there is potential that the 800G and 1.6T capacity ramp meaningfully accelerates AOI’s run rate by the end of 2026. 

Key Segments: 

CATV (Cable Television) 

As noted above, CATV revenue in Q2 was up 862% YoY but down (13%) QoQ from a record Q1, in line with management’s expectations as production was retooled for Motorola-style amplifiers. The YoY growth was driven by the ramp of its 1.8 GHz amplifiers.  

AOI also finished testing and certified its Motorola- and GameMaker-style amplifiers for Charter Communications, who will deploy AOI’s 1.8 GHz amplifies and QuantumLink remote management software. For Q3, AOI expects CATV revenue to be record or near-record.  

Data Center 

For Q2, data center revenue was $44.8 million, up 30.4% YoY and 39.8% QoQ. The QoQ increase comes after a (27.6%) QoQ decline in Q1 from inventory digestion at one of AOI’s largest hyperscaler customers and seasonality. Data center revenue has been lumpy so far, though growth is expected to pick up in Q3 and into Q4 as 400G ramps and 800G begins contributing. 

  • Revenue for 10/40G products rose 68% YoY and 26% QoQ to $4.0 million, or 10% of data center revenue 
  • Revenue for 100G products rose 25% YoY and 25% QoQ to $31.4 million, or 70% of data center revenue. 
  • Revenue for 200G/400G products rose 43% YoY and 180% QoQ to $8.9 million, or 20% of data center revenue. AOI also completed its first volume shipment for high-speed single-mode 400G transceivers to a recently re-engaged hyperscaler, with increased sequential demand from other hyperscalers arising in Q2.  

Telecom

Telecom and other revenue was down (45%) YoY to $2.1 million. Management expects telecom revenue, which was $1.9 million, to fluctuate from quarter to quarter. 

Margins 

AOI is not the strongest on margins, with operating margin widening for a second consecutive quarter on increased expenditures related to customer qualification projects for 800G and 1.6T products.  

AOI reported GAAP gross margin of 30.3%, up more than 8 points YoY but down 0.3 points QoQ. Adjusted gross margin was 30.4%, with management guiding this to be essentially flat next quarter at 30.3%. Management has a target of 35% to 40% by late 2026 to 2027, emphasizing that they will need a few quarters for higher-margin 800G and cost reduction efforts from shifting to larger wafers to be seen. In the near-term, the ramp of single-mode 400G transceivers, which carry higher ASPs and gross margins, may provide a tailwind for expansion. 

GAAP operating margin was (15.5%), a notable improvement from over (60%) in the year ago quarter, but widening from (6.5%) in Q4 and (8.9%) in Q1. Adjusted operating margin as (10.5%), down from (4.8%) in Q1 but up from (37.6%) a year ago. 

Net margin was (8.8%), improving from (9.2%) in Q1 and more than (60%) a year ago. Adjusted net margin was (8.6%), down from (0.9%) in Q1 but improving from (25.1%) a year ago. For Q3, management’s guide implies adjusted net margin improving to (3.3%) at midpoint. 

EPS 

AOI reported a ($0.16) loss per share in Q2, missing estimates for ($0.07), as net margin did not improve much sequentially. For Q3, AOI guided for ($0.03) to ($0.10), a decent sequential improvement, likely driven by the ramp in 400G and a potential rebound in operating margin 

Looking ahead, AOI is expected to shift to GAAP profitability by Q4 and expand earnings through mid-2026, with current estimates pointing to $0.03 in Q4 and rising to $0.19 by Q2 ’26, driven by the ramp of 800G.   

Cash 

Cash flows are also quite weak, though this has been mostly from surging accounts receivables and capex to support capacity expansion, a solid signal for the upcoming 800G ramp in conjunction with management’s commentary. 

Operating cash flow in Q2 was ($65.5 million), widening from ($50.9 million) in Q1 as inventories and accounts receivables surged, up $36 million and $40 million QoQ respectively. OCF margin was (63.6%), down from (4.6%) a year ago and (51%) in Q1.  

Free cash flow was ($104.3 million), widening from ($87.2 million) in Q1. Capex for the quarter was $38.8 million as AOI is quickly purchasing equipment to meet its aggressive capacity expansion targets for year-end and mid-year 2026. Full-year capex guidance is $120 to $150 million in preparation for increased 400G, 800G and 1.6T production. 

Inventories were $138.9 million, up more than $36 million from Q1, driven by raw material purchases for use in production over the next few months.  

Accounts receivable were $211.5 million in Q2, up $40 million QoQ. Digicomm accounted for $171.6 million of these receivables, tied to upcoming cable TV growth: “We talked about the dynamics, because we wanted to get some of the cable TV products in particular into the country and ready to be staged, ready for customer acceptance, we have offered some extended payment terms to certain customers in that channel chain to be able to accommodate that additional amount of revenue so that it's here when the customers need it.” 

Cash and equivalents totaled $87.2 million, while debt was $188.2 million. During Q2, AOI completed its ATM program and raised $98 million net of fees, which it will utilize for equipment and machinery for its capacity expansion in Taiwan and Texas. 

Earnings Q&A:  

Gross Margin Increase Driven by Wafer Sizing 

A five to ten point expansion in gross margins from 30% to 35-40% in four to six quarters (end of 2026 to early 2027) is a tall task to achieve while greatly expanding production capacity, but management provided some insights into the different levers available to reach this target. First, a shift from 2-inch wafers to 3-inch wafers is expected to bring substantial cost savings, along with 800G products ramping and improvements in cable TV: 

Q, Simon Leopold, Raymond James: 

Where I was trying to go with the question was to try to get a better sense of one of the elements to help the gross margin move towards that long term of 40%. So what I was trying to tease out in this question was the degree that you're outsourcing today versus a change towards more vertical integration in the future as a lever for gross margin improvement. So maybe the question is off-base and maybe I'm going down the wrong path. More bluntly, what will help the gross margin improve? 

A, CEO Thompson Lin:  

“Yes. I think the key is wafer, okay? Right now, we are doing 2-inch wafer. But we're going to 3-inch wafers. The cost will reduce by, I don't know, 50%, 60%. Then we'll go to 4-inch wafer by end of next year. This is a major, much bigger cost savings than what you're talking about. I think right now, yes, we're only maybe using 30% to 40% of our lasers. We were using, I would say, 2/3 of AOI lasers, okay? It will depend on customer by customer [basis]. Some customers prefer all the AOI lasers. Some customers prefer 50-50, okay? So that's why it's different. But more importantly, the cost funnel of AOI lasers changed from 2-inch to 3-inch to 4-inch.” 

Management added that they need a few quarters to see a bigger impact from 800G products, which will have gross margin near 40%, and increased software revenue mix in cable TV, such as the QuantumLink remote management software deployment with Charter Communications.  

Cable TV Demand to Reach $300-350M 

Though the data center opportunity is what we’re most interested in, AOI’s commentary on cable TV pointed to potential 40% growth in fiscal 2026. Management said they have a “pretty clear line of sight” into channel inventory and demand, which supports this confidence in reaching $300 to $350 million in cable TV revenue next year. For perspective, cable TV revenue is on a ~$240 to $260 million run rate with $120 million in revenue in 1H: 

CEO Thompson Li: 

“So right now, next year, we are very comfortable, besides Charter, we should have more than 10 customers next year. And right now, based on the feedback from this customer, I think the real demand from these customers next year is, I would say, minimum $300 million to $350 million. … But the demand is pretty big, all right? Just next year, that's the number we see right now, $300 million to $350 million of real demand, all right, for this customer in, I would say, U.S., Canada, all right?” 

CW Laser Production Increasing 

AOI has been rather quiet about CW lasers for silicon photonics, with the focus primarily on the 800G transceivers, though management discussed increasing capacity for the high-power CW lasers to 2.5 million per month, or 30 million annually, by “sometime next year.”  

We have previously discussed the importance of CW lasers for SiPho in our Lumentum analysis, Lumentum at Inflection Point with 20% QoQ Growth in AI-Related Segment, where Lumentum said it was “having challenges actually getting enough CW lasers for our own transceivers.” This will give AOI easily enough capacity to meet its planned transceiver capacity growth in a vertically-integrated manner:  

“We are increasing our high-power CW laser for silicon photonics to maybe 2.5 million lasers per month by sometime next year. So right now, our in-house capacity is 100G EML. We should have 200G EML sometime soon, next year, for sure, the high-power laser for silicon photonics and VCSEL, the other new project, the 200G photo detector, okay? So this is all manufactured, 100%, in Houston.” 

Conclusion 

The primary risks with AOI stem from its margin profile as it is much weaker than more established networking players as well as the hypergrowth players we track. While there is an expectation for margins and EPS to improve through 2026 as 800G/1.6T products ramp, this will need to be proven over the coming few quarters. The weak cash flows also present a risk if there is a prolonged recovery, given the thinner cash position AOI has, while China concentration also poses a larger red flag given geopolitical tensions may be rising again. 

However, it’s hard to argue with the strong growth expected across the optical transceiver industry emerging through 2026 from 800G and 1.6T products, combined with AOI’s 17X increase in capacity through mid-2026 for said products. Rough math suggests these products could generate more than double current quarterly revenue estimates when selling out at full capacity, while cable TV is expected to contribute nicely to growth in 2026 as well.

Damien Robbins, Equity Analyst at I/O Fund contributed to this analysis.

Every Thursday at 4:30 pm Eastern, the I/O Fund team holds a webinar for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock and crypto entries and exits. Beth Kindig offers weekly deep dives including lesser-known cryptocurrencies and AI stocks, plus the team offers trade alerts. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. If you’d like to subscribe to the Advanced Market Signals plan, email us at premium@io-fund.compremium@io-fund.com.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Posted in AI Stocks, Data CenterLeave a Comment on Applied Optoelectronics: Targeting 8.5x Capacity Growth by Year-end 

The I/O Fund’s Top 10 New Ideas List for Q4 2025

Posted on October 15, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Since launching the Discovery tier less than a year ago, The I/O Fund’s internal process for identifying new winners has greatly improved. Based on the research we produced from this tier, we added stocks like Bloom Energy, Core Scientific and Oklo to our portfolio, and these new additions became some of our biggest wins (thus far) in 2025.  

As we continue to build out the Discovery library, we’d like to make it as easy as possible for our readers to follow along. We want to cast a wide net, explore and leave no stone unturned – therefore, we anticipate our coverage to include dozens of stocks over time. However, we also want to make sure we get down to brass tracks by providing you a clear takeaway by ranking what we’ve dug up every quarter. The ranking will also help clarify which ones we are eyeing an entry for and what setups Knox will cover in his Discovery Tier webinars. This will be called the I/O Fund’s Top 10 New Ideas List.  

The ranking we provide is an estimate, which means all 10 stocks are of interest. Given the nature of momentum stocks, the ranking could shift quickly. Please check back to the Discovery Ranking list provided on the Dashboard for any changes in the interim. 

Themes: 

AI Networking: 

Networking is at the heart of the new architecture that Nvidia is shipping now as the increased bandwidth is instrumental in driving higher performance. For example, the NVL72 systems will deliver 4X faster training and 30X faster inference compared to HGX systems. Notably, this is accomplished with many more GPUs from eight to 72 per system. 

To support the new systems, the NVLink domain moves from supporting eight GPUs to 72 GPUs and 36 CPUs with a speed of 1.8 TB/s with 18 NVSwitch ASICs, up from four in the HGX/DGX systems due to increasing the number of GPUs but also due to doubling the per-GPU links. The 5th generation of NVLink supports up to 576 GPUs compared to the fourth generation of up to eight GPUs. 

Scale-up refers to increasing the number of GPUs in an AI system. Proprietary NVLink remains the highest performance option for scale-up interconnects, although PCIe and scale-up Ethernet are also used. For the cabling, copper is used for intra-rack scale-up with up to 5,184 cables per system. Future generations of NVLink are likely to integrate optical I/O so that GPUs can communicate across racks without requiring costly retimers. 

A few parameters around the size of the scale-up opportunity: 

  • GB200 NVL72 with 72 GPUs and 36 CPUs has 18 NVSwitch chips and 72 InfiniBand NICs for scale-out networking and 36 Bluefield-3 Ethernet NICs for front-end networking. Compare this to the HGX systems with 8 GPUs and the DGX systems with 8 GPUs and 2 CPUs has 4 NVSwitch chips and 8 InfiniBand NICs. 
  • This means the new architecture that Nvidia is shipping now results in 9X more GPUs, 4.5X more NVSwitches, 9X more InfiniBand NICs and 18X more front-end NICs. Each GPU requires its own InfiniBand link for scale-out whereas NVSwitch components grow faster than GPU count as each GPU must talk to every other GPU, therefore, it has more of an exponential growth.  

Although NVLink is proprietary, it acts as a bellwether for the importance of AI networking and lesser-known suppliers. Generally speaking, what we can see from looking more closely at Nvidia’s networking fabric is that networking components are increasing 5X to 9X, and in some cases up to 18X.  

Source: Nvidia Technical Blog, “Nvidia Contributes Nvidia GB200 NVL72 Designs to Open Compute Project” Nvidia Contributes Nvidia GB200 NVL72 Designs to Open Compute Project” 

Scale-out racks refer to connecting multiple racks across a cluster. InfiniBand switches and Ethernet switches are used for this purpose. As you can see below, Nvidia offers scalable units called SuperPODs that offer tens of thousands of GPUs. For a very large SuperPOD with 16,834 GPUs and 2048 nodes, there would be hundreds of InfiniBand switches required (or a hyperscaler can also use Ethernet switches) and extensive cabling is also required.  

Source: Nvidia DGX SuperPOD technical blog Nvidia DGX SuperPOD technical blog 

Also consider that as the networking and interconnects market matures, there will be new opportunities to participate, for example, co-package optics are expected to be introduced for the Rubin generation of GPUs in 2026-2027. 

Regardless of the exact networking-to-compute ratio, as we scale up AI systems, the architecture becomes a networking and interconnect problem that must continually be solved for, and we want to be correctly positioned within the networking supply chain. Therefore, AI networking will remain a key focus for the I/O Fund’s Top 10 New Ideas in the coming quarters and years. You can expect our team to deliver additional names in this trend and to increase our allocation as needed.  

AI Energy: 

Data center power demand is expected to grow at an accelerated clip through the end of the decade and beyond, with more powerful GPUs and surging growth in inference two main drivers. 

McKinsey projects data center capacity will rise ~2.5x to 219 GW by 2030, up from 82 GW in 2025, with AI contributing 70% of that demand. This corresponds to total capacity growth of 137 GW over the next five years, with 112 GW coming from AI.

Goldman Sachs estimated global data center power usage at 55 GW in early 2025, far below BCG’s 82 GW figure. However, GS projects power usage to reach 84 GW in 2027 and increase further to 122 GW by 2030, corresponding to total growth of just 67 GW. However, considering 2025 and 2026 capex spend could support >20 GW of new capacity, this forecast may understate the pace of capacity growth.

We covered this trend more closely in a lengthy Pro Tier article entitled: “Why Power is Critical for Data Centers and their Hyperscaler Customers” 

As that analysis pointed out, Nvidia’s Blackwell lineup is bringing a significant increase in power consumption, nearly double the H200’s 70 kW at 120 kW for the GB200 NVL72 and 140 kW for the upcoming GB300 racks.   

Beyond Blackwell, Nvidia’s future design lineup shows continual increases in power consumption. Its Rubin generation is expected to boost thermal design power (TDP) by 50% over Blackwell at up to 180 kW per rack, with the upgraded Vera Rubin then doubling this to 360 kW per rack by 2027.  

In its largest configuration, the Vera Rubin NVL576, dubbed the ‘Kyber’ rack, could draw as much as 600 kW (0.6 MW), or 5x that of the GB200 NVL72 in just a two-year design timeframe. These figures do not include networking, interconnects, cooling and other hardware, which will further boost power draw per rack. 

This rapid increase in power consumption per GPU generation is critical, as existing infrastructure is simply unable to meet these escalating power demands. For example, Applied Digital pointed out that nearly 70% of current data centers “contain racks requiring between four and nine kW of power, and less than two percent of data centers have racks with greater than 50kW.”  

For comparison, Super Micro’s GB200 NVL72 SuperCluster requires 132kW, while the upcoming Kyber rack could more than quadruple that to 600kW. Because Blackwell-based servers are now 15x to 30x the power density, cooling and power delivery strategies have to be redesigned, as liquid cooling now becomes a necessity.   

This sharp rise in power density means current infrastructure may be unable to transition from 4-9kW racks to >130kW racks without incurring significant retrofitting costs, while building new infrastructure bypasses that hurdle and allows for optimization for high-powered racks. 

For example, Vantage’s upcoming 1.4 GW campus in Texas for Oracle is designed for ultra-high density racks up to 250kW, yet this will not be enough power to able to host NVL576 racks in just two to three years’ time. Additionally, a former Microsoft Azure AI executive reportedly said he estimated that the “requirements in terms of power for the data center would probably at least double every three years and maybe exponentially so over a period of time,” further reinforcing this. 

The push to 600kW racks over the next few years means this is not a transient problem, rather it is one that the industry will continue to face, meaning continuous new construction may be needed to handle surging power demand.  

In the latest earnings call with CoreWeave, management agreed with the analysis we have presented to Pro Members, stating: “at the end of the day, right now, it's the powered shells that are the choke point that is causing the struggle to get enough infrastructure online for the demand signals that we are seeing […]” 

Takeaway: When building our portfolio, we have to balance many things when it comes to AI energy stocks. Time to power is paramount as some energy infrastructure is 5-10 years out from commencing operations and generating revenue. Secondly, many energy stocks require significant cash to secure energy sources, get government approval and build the underlying infrastructure, which also includes taking into consideration regional differences, transmission capacity and distances from generation sites to metro areas.

AI Data Layer: 

The initial years of AI development were compute intensive to where training created a compute hierarchy. We still see evidence of this hierarchy as companies with access to GPUs, networking and energy have an advantage, and the barrier to entry is high in both costs and by the limited supply preventing widespread access. 

Nvidia has enjoyed a near-monopoly by being the parallel processing leader decades before AI took over as the primary market that demanded massive compute and data throughput for matrix multiplications and vector math. The lack of supply has afforded the world’s largest companies a head start in training and deploying models while startups and enterprises patiently wait for access. As more frontier LLMs are deployed by R&D labs and Big Tech, the emphasis moving forward will be on inference rather than only on training models.  

The inference market is when enterprises and companies sitting on large private data sets will be able to increase the accuracy of open sourced models and licensed models. There will be an important shift to where companies that can offer domain-specific data in various industries, such as finance, healthcare, manufacturing, will do well by optimizing processes to generate more revenue and achieve better margins. It will start with the Fortune 500, the Global Fortune 2000 and well-funded startups. Meanwhile, investors should also not overlook the fact that R&D labs are growing closer to cracking the consumer market, as well, with apps such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Sora, or Perplexity’s search.  

While training is benefiting those who sell the compute or own the infrastructure (and we will continue to own these stocks), there will also be a shift toward companies that manage the data pipes by sitting across the many database and software services that enterprises use. Think of all the ERP systems, CRMs, legacy databases, etc, where private data is stored. There will be an emphasis toward combining the data, keeping it private, yet utilizing it to increase the quality of inference.  

Takeaway: Compute will continue to drive the scale for inference; data will drive the quality of inference. Therefore, a key focus for I/O Fund’s Top 10 New Ideas list over the next few quarters (and years ahead) will be AI data stocks that help private enterprises use their valuable data to feed data-hungry reasoning models. We will also, in tandem with AI networking and AI energy, be looking to build our portfolio with exposure to stocks that will participate in the AI inference market, which spans hardware, software, the data layer, and more.  

The stocks below are new ideas and at time of publishing, the I/O Fund does not own these stocks although they are under strong consideration for the portfolio. To find out the stocks the I/O Fund owns, subscribe to our Pro tier for Research or our flagship tier Advanced with additional research, real-time trade alerts, allocations to stocks and weekly webinars.

CoreWeave: $20B+ in New Deals, Targeting Aggressive Power Growth  

Thematic: 10/10
Fundamentals: 4/10 
Valuation: 4/10 

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

CoreWeave brands itself as the world’s first “AI hyperscaler” as they offer both infrastructure and a software platform for developing large language models and deploying them. Being dubbed an AI infrastructure player means CoreWeave must offer a compelling value proposition to attract business from arguably the largest competitors in the world – AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. 

One of their primary value propositions is offering bare metal servers, as the company does not need to offer shared GPUs like the hyperscalers. By stripping away the virtualization layer, raw performance goes up for R&D labs, who do not need to want to lower performance for workload flexibility. Although CoreWeave offers shared infrastructure in terms of storage and networking, the company’s key differentiation from the Big 3 is by offering dedicated bare-metal access. CoreWeave also offers proprietary software to help achieve higher total system performance and more favorable uptime relative to competitors. 

CoreWeave has already reached a $5 billion run rate with 470MW (~20%) of its 2.2GW contracted power active and operational, leaving an additional ~1.73GW to be developed. The company is planning to have 900MW active by year-end, hence the need for high capex to support growth. At full-scale, the company may be able to support a $25 billion revenue run rate, aligning with FY29’s revenue estimate. 

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

CoreWeave reached a new milestone of over $1.0 billion in revenue in Q2 2025, growing 206.7% YoY and 23.6% QoQ to $1.21 billion, driven by strong demand for the company’s AI cloud infrastructure services. Revenue growth is expected to be strong in the coming quarters, driven by the robust demand due to training and inference workloads.  

Management revenue guidance for Q3 is in the range of $1.26 billion to $1.30 billion, representing YoY growth of 119.2% and 5.5% QoQ at the midpoint.  Revenue growth is expected to show a 20% acceleration QoQ in Q4 with revenue growing 139.5% YoY and a further 16 percent acceleration QoQ in Q1 2026, highlighting large deals signed in the recent quarters.  

Looking forward, revenue is expected to grow by 174% YoY to $5.26 billion in the year 2025 and 129.6% YoY to $12.08 billion in 2026. 

Key Metric Key Metric 

CoreWeave reported backlog of $30.1 billion at the end of Q2, up 86% YoY driven by the company’s strategic deal with OpenAI in March 2025 and a subsequent expansion deal in May. CoreWeave expects 50% of this backlog, or ~$15 billion, to convert to revenue over the next 24 months, providing a strong degree of visibility into future growth. 

However, CoreWeave’s backlog has now likely surpassed $50 billion, considering the company signed an additional expansion deal with OpenAI worth $6.5 billion and a large-scale deal with Meta worth $14.2 billion, both lasting through 2031. 

Earnings Earnings 

CoreWeave reported GAAP loss per share of (-$0.60) in Q2 compared to the consensus estimate of (-$0.49), with the miss stemming from higher operating expenses, particularly technology and infrastructure expenses. 

CoreWeave is not expected to shift to GAAP profitability until FY27: analysts expect GAAP loss per share of (-$2.67) for this year, followed by (-$0.90) for 2026, before shifting to positive GAAP EPS of $1.59 in 2027. 

Margins Margins 

While gross margin has expanded over the last two quarters, operating margin remains thin from heightened expenditures and aggressive investments in data center capacity and servers. 

Gross margin was 51.2%, up from 50.7% in Q1 and 43% in Q4. This is now slightly below the highest gross margin that CoreWeave has reported publicly at 53.7%.  

Operating margin was just 1.6% in Q2, inflecting from a (2.8%) margin in Q1 but substantially lower than the 20% margin in the year ago quarter as tech and infrastructure expenses have surged more than 260% YoY. 

Net margin was (24.0%) in Q2, marking a slight improvement from (32.1%) in Q1, with this pressured heavily by high interest payments on debt. 

Cash Cash 

CoreWeave’s business model is based on aggressive capacity expansion, currently fueled primarily by debt. As a result, cash is rather thin and gets spent quickly, and free cash flow is widely negative.  

CoreWeave reported $1.15 billion in cash and equivalents (excluding $0.56 billion in restricted cash and equivalents), though CoreWeave updated in an 8-K related to its now upsized $1.75 billion raise that total cash will be closer to $5 billion.  

Operating cash flow was ($251.3 million) for a (21%) margin in Q2, widening from ($117.8 million) in the year ago quarter. Free cash flow was ($2.7 billion) for a (223%) margin, widening slightly from ($2.36 billion) in the year ago quarter. 

Debt was reported at $11.05 billion in Q2, with $3.62 billion being current. Current debt is likely closer to $12 billion now, with a majority (~$6.7 billion) tied to its two existing delayed draw term loan facilities. If its new DDTL is drawn upon, debt could rise to $14.6 billion. On the other hand, the company is trying to reduce its cost of capital by raising cash through secured debt, using its highly valuable GPUs as collateral. 

Valuation Valuation 

Given its limited history on the public markets, CoreWeave’s valuation comps are limited. The company is trading above its average forward PS multiple since IPO of 9.6x, currently valued at 12.8x. This is approaching its peak forward PS multiple so far of 16.8x. 

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

Based on company guidance, CoreWeave’s capex for the second half of the year is expected to be >$15 billion, with cash on hand only covering one-third of that at maximum. The majority of this capex, around >$12 billion, is expected to hit in Q4 due to timing of standing up new infrastructure, placing emphasis on finding funding to finance this spending. Debt is expensive for CoreWeave, with recent raises at >9% rates, making tapping the debt markets a more expensive endeavor – interest expenses were 22% of revenue in Q2. 

Customer concentration also presents a risk, though this is now beginning to ease as other anchor customers Meta and OpenAI ramp. Microsoft had accounted for 72% of revenue in 1H, with the former two providing much needed diversification away from Microsoft. 

IREN: Aggressively Building an AI GPU Cloud, Targeting $500M ARR by Q1 

Thematic: 10/10
Fundamentals: 7/10 
Valuation: 2/10 

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

There are a few key things that separate IREN from other Bitcoin miners. The first is that IREN is still a Bitcoin miner whereas others have retrofitted their Bitcoin operations for the data center entirely or plan to very soon as the operations were not profitable. In contrast, IREN is able to turn a profit from Bitcoin mining and plans to use that cash to help fund its AI data center expansions.  

Secondly, IREN can offer a hybrid mix of both colocation and AI cloud services, which is essentially bare metal servers without a hypervisor or virtual layer. This is attractive to hyperscalers as virtualization can lead to performance loss. For the AI cloud, IREN functions similar to CoreWeave as the GPUs are leased “as a service.” For colocation, IREN provides the facility, power and cooling for customers to deploy and manage their own hardware. 

IREN is working to rapidly build out its GPU fleet considering its power pipeline totals 3GW, with the firm now owning more than 23,000 GPUs consisting of primarily Blackwells, more than doubling this month. IREN does have capacity to support >660K GPUs in total, though this will likely cost upwards of $60 billion in full.  

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

IREN delivered Q4 revenue of $187.3 million, up 229% from the $56.8 million earned in the year-ago period and up 65% sequentially from Q3’s $113.6 million. This kind of sequential growth is rarely seen outside of hypergrowth SaaS, let alone in a miner. The bulk of Q4 revenue came from Bitcoin at $180.3 million. 

IREN reported FY25 revenue of $501.0 million, up 168% year-over-year from $187.2 million, underscoring one of the fastest growth rates in the sector. Looking ahead to 2026, IREN is estimated to report 113% growth to $1.09 billion, with growth each quarter expected to be >80% or higher. 

AI Segment Revenue Growth AI Segment Revenue Growth 

IREN’s AI cloud business is currently a small contributor to growth, with revenue of just $7 million in fiscal Q4. While this represented growth of 180% YoY and 94% QoQ, the segment accounted for less than 4% of total revenue in the quarter. For FY25, AI cloud revenue was $16.4 million, more than 5x higher than its FY24 revenue of $3.1 million.  

In accordance with its doubled fleet at 23K GPUs, IREN unveiled a new AI Cloud annualized revenue (ARR) guidance, now targeting >$500 million in ARR by Q1 2026. This is more than double its guidance from August for $200 million to $250 million by year-end 2025, based on a fleet size of 10.9K GPUs. IREN said in early October that it has secured customer contracts for the 10.9K fleet representing $225 million in ARR, and that it remains on track to reach its Q1 target. 

Earnings Earnings 

IREN reported Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.66, though much of this (~$0.54) was attributed to a $147.7 million gain on financial instruments. 

IREN’s EPS flipped positive in FY25, with diluted EPS of $0.39 versus a ($0.29) loss in FY24, marking its first full-year profit on a per-share basis, though GAAP EPS is heavily influenced by fair-value accounting marks. Looking forward, analysts expect GAAP profitability to more than triple through FY26 to $1.23. 

Margins Margins 

Operating margin shifted to positive in FY25, with Q4 seeing operating margin reach double-digit territory, a stark contrast to other miner peers.  

Gross margin was 71.8% in Q4, reflecting benefits from scaling mining operations and disciplined power cost management. FY25 gross margin was 68.3%, up nearly 15 points YoY and signaling more room for expansion with Q4’s print. 

Operating margin was 11.0% in Q4, down from 20.1% in the prior quarter. For FY25, operating margin was 3.5%, shifting positive from a (14.6%) margin in FY24. 

Net margin was 94.4% in Q4, though stripping out the substantial gain on financial instruments would place net margin at 15.6%. For FY25, net margin was 17.3%, including 15.5 points contribution from gains on financial instruments. 

Cash Cash 

While operating cash flows were solid, free cash flow was largely negative at more than 2.5x revenue due to elevated capex.  

Operating cash flow was $245.9 million in FY25, up from just $52.2 million in FY24. This equated to a strong 48.9% margin, up from 27.9% in the prior year. However, free cash flow widened from ($427.7 million) in FY24 to ($1.13 billion) in FY25, with IREN spending $574 million on PP&E and $799 million on GPUs and hardware. 

IREN reported $564.6 million in cash against $962.8 million in convertible debt in Q4. IREN also priced an additional $875 million in convertible debt in early October, which will likely go towards additional GPU purchases.  

Valuation Valuation 

With its strong multi-month rally, IREN is now trading at peak forward PS multiples at 16.5x, far above its historical average 3.9x forward multiple.  

On the bottom line, IREN is trading at the upper end of its forward PE range over the past year at 70x forward earnings. This is notably elevated from early August’s 17x forward PE multiple.  

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

IREN marks the first (and perhaps only) attempt across Bitcoin miners to double up as a neocloud, which may carry substantial capital risks to self-fund GPU fleet expansion. Analysts expect IREN to grow its GPU fleet by 5x by year-end 2026, though this firm’s estimate hinged on IREN taking on $6 billion in new debt related to GPU purchases. This would quickly consume cash and possibly could cost hundreds of millions quarterly in interest, depending on terms, which would be hard to cover with cash flows. 

Additionally, IREN is targeting a rather aggressive ramp in its AI cloud business, which relies on internal projects for utilization, hourly rental rates, and on-time GPU delivery, all factors that may change quite quickly. Monthly AI cloud revenue has still yet to reach an inflection point as of August, suggesting little to no new GPU deliveries have occurred since June.  

Palantir: AI Platform Drives Eight-Quarter Revenue Acceleration  

Thematic: 10/10
Fundamentals: 9/10 
Valuation: 1/10

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

The difference between Palantir and other AI-enabled database competitors is that Palantir is able to answer questions a model cannot answer. Traditional business intelligence companies require a complete data set whereas Palantir is able to tackle situations where there is not a complete data set. You can think of the competitive advantage as being actionable depth, which Palantir has described as “the reasoning that goes into decision-making, not just data.”   

Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) integrates generative AI with operational data and workflows, and when combined with Palantir’s other platforms Foundry and Apollo, it provides an AI service mesh that can run hundreds of microservices, scale compute through its Rubix engine and orchestrate updates through Apollo.  

Additionally, Palantir’s knowledge graph referred to as Ontology is a distinct advantage. The graph offers better context than a large language model would on its own – or as Palantir states, it’s “the reasoning that goes into decision-making.”  

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

Palantir cracked the $1 billion quarterly revenue milestone in Q2, with revenue of $1.003 billion in the quarter. Growth accelerated nine points to 48% YoY, and seven points to 14% QoQ. For Q3, Palantir guided for growth to accelerate slightly to 50%, what would mark its ninth straight quarter with accelerating revenue growth. 

Management also boosted its full-year revenue growth forecast by ~$250 million, from $3.9 billion to $4.15 billion, corresponding to growth of 45% YoY. This marks a sharp acceleration from 29% growth in FY24.  

AI Segment Revenue Growth AI Segment Revenue Growth 

Palantir’s US Commercial segment is the primary vector for its AIP-driven growth, with the company seeing robust momentum from the segment. US Commercial revenue grew 93% YoY (a 22 point sequential acceleration) and 20% QoQ to $306 million.  

Palantir also scored US commercial remaining deal value of $2.79 billion, up 145% YoY and 20% QoQ, while US commercial total contract value (TCV) rose 222% YoY to $843 million. US commercial customers rose 64% YoY to 485. 

For the full year, Palantir boosted its guide to >85% YoY growth to $1.302 billion, compared to its Q1 guide for 68% growth to $1.178 billion. 

Earnings Earnings 

Palantir reported adjusted EPS of $0.16 in Q2, up 78% YoY, and GAAP EPS of $0.13, both coming in ahead of estimates. For Q3, Palantir is expected to report adjusted EPS growth of 67% YoY to $0.17. 

For fiscal 2025, Palantir is estimated to see adjusted EPS rise 57% YoY to $0.64, before slowing to 32% growth to $0.85 in fiscal 2026. 

Margins Margins 

Palantir is a standout in terms of margins, as the company continues to drive operating margin expansion while accelerating revenue growth. This helps the company’s Rule of 40 metric, which stands at 94 as it combines adjusted EBITDA margin with revenue – or more than double the ideal 40 that many SaaS companies set out to achieve yet cannot due to a lack of GAAP margins.   

Gross margin was 80.8% in Q2, down from 81% in the year ago quarter but up marginally from 80.4% in Q1. 

Operating margin was 26.8%, expanding significantly from 15.5% in the year ago quarter and from 20% in Q1. Adjusted operating margin was 46.3%, up from 37.4% in the year ago quarter and 44.2% in Q1; Palantir guided for continued strength in Q3 at a 45.6% margin. 

Net margin was 32.6%, up nearly 13 points from 19.8% in the year ago quarter and up from 24.2% in Q1.  

Cash Cash 

Palantir also stands out for its ridiculously strong cash flows, with margins above 50%, putting it in rare territory for a high-growth AI stock when combined with its operating and net margin profile. 

Operating cash flow was $539.3 million in Q2 for a margin of 54%, well above its 20% margin from the year ago quarter but slightly below its peak OCF margin of 58% in Q3 2024.   

Adjusted free cash flow was $568.8 million for a 57% margin, again up substantially from 22% a year ago but below its peak FCF margin of 63%. Palantir raised its adjusted FCF guidance for FY25 by $200 million, from $1.6-1.8 billion to now $1.8-2.0 billion, or a margin of 45.8% at midpoint. 

Cash and equivalents totaled $6.0 billion, while debt was zero. 

Valuation Valuation 

On the topline, Palantir trades at 105.4x forward PS, far above its 5-year average multiple of 33.4x and well above the second most expensive software stock in Cloudflare at 35.7x forward PS. Palantir is in uncharted territory as it is at its peak multiple ever sustained for this metric. 

On the bottom line, Palantir trades at 288x forward PE, again at its peak and far above its average of 103.4x. On an FCF basis, the company trades at 273.3x, also above its average multiple of 154.5x. 

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

The valuation with Palantir is a gamble as the company is attempting to set a new bar for AI software, with >100x forward sales multiples only achieved for short fashion in 2021 for a handful of prior market darlings, whose stocks have yet to return to those prices. Palantir’s elevated valuation may also present a risk if/when the company reaches peak revenue growth, as it cannot accelerate the topline forever. 

Lumentum: Cloud & Networking Growth Accelerates to 16% QoQ 

Thematic: 10/10
Fundamentals: 6/10 
Valuation: 4/10

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

Optical interconnects are a trend the I/O Fund has been tracking for more than a year, as these interconnects help data centers accelerate data throughput between and inside the data center between servers or racks, while reducing latency and power consumption. Lumentum supplies components for datacom transceivers (including VSCELs, CW lasers for silicon photonics and EML-based lasers) and optical interconnects with tech that has caught the attention of heavyweight Nvidia.  

While we have been closely monitoring Lumentum and waiting patiently for their EML lasers for 200G to ship, the company’s most recent report provided confirmation of the EML laser ramp, as EMLs achieved an all-time high for shipments with revenue more than doubling versus its June 2024 baseline.  Management also cited a “substantial” 200G EML order to be fulfilled in the December quarter, although offered little additional clarity on the size of the order.   

Lumentum also remains quite confident in its growth opportunities from EML lasers, optical circuit switches and co-packaged optics heading into 2026. The company provided a new $600 million quarterly revenue target it expects to reach by next June or earlier, up from $424 million in the current quarter.   

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

Lumentum reported Q4 revenue of $480.7 million, beating analyst estimates by a modest 2.29%. This was a notable uptick on the top-line, with growth of 13.1% QoQ, accelerating 7 points, and 55.9% YoY, accelerating 42 points, beginning to support the thesis that Lumentum is past the cyclical low it experienced in FY24. 

Guidance for Q1 FY26 came in at $510 to $540 million, representing 55.8% growth YoY and a slight moderation to 6% QoQ growth. Management attributes the strong forward revenue guide to surging AI workloads and the “shift toward high-speed photonics for hyperscale cloud operators.”   

FY25 revenue came in at $1.65 billion, with growth rebounding to 21% YoY from FY24’s (23%) YoY decline. FY26 is expected to see revenue growth accelerate nearly 20 points to almost 40% YoY, with current estimates at $2.29 billion.   

AI Segment Revenue GrowthAI Segment Revenue Growth

Lumentum’s Cloud and Networking revenue came in at $424.1 million in Q4, representing 66.5% YoY growth. Additionally, the segment’s QoQ growth of 16.1% accelerated sharply from 7.6% QoQ in Q3. 

Management cited a few factors behind the outperformance in Q4: strong hyperscaler demand driving more than 50% QoQ growth in cloud modules, all-time high in EML shipments, and strong transceiver demand. Of these, EML drove the results this current quarter: “In Components, we achieved an all-time high in EML shipments, nearly doubling the revenue compared to our June quarter 2024 baseline.”  

For Q1, management expects Cloud & Networking to be up QoQ, and based on guidance, this would likely correspond to approximately 10% QoQ growth at midpoint. Management indicated there was potential for strong growth starting in the upcoming December quarter: “Recently, we received a substantial order for 200-gig lane speed EML chips, which we expect to fulfill in the December quarter. Overall, we expect 2026 to be a breakout year for laser chip sales of both 100-gig and 200-gig lane speeds.”  

Earnings Earnings 

Lumentum reported adjusted EPS of $0.88 in Q4, beating estimates of $0.81 and improving against the $0.57 reported in Q3 and $0.06 reported in the year ago quarter. Management guided for $0.95 to $1.10 in adjusted EPS in Q1, up nearly 470% YoY, while Q2 is expected to see 176% growth to $1.16.   

Looking ahead, Lumentum is expected to see adjusted EPS rise at a 77% CAGR through fiscal 2027, rising from $2.06 in FY25 to $4.86 in FY26 to $6.48 in FY27. 

Margins Margins 

The re-acceleration in revenue drove solid in GAAP gross margin to 33.3%, higher than the 28.8% percentage seen in Q3 and double the 16.6% margin from Q4 FY24. Non-GAAP gross reiterates this story, as Q4’s 37.8% margin continued to expand versus the prior quarter comp of 35.2% and prior year comp of 27.8%.   

Lumentum showed continued progress on operating margins as well in Q4 with a (1.7%) operating margin, compared to (8.9%) in Q3 FY25 and (43.3%) in Q4 FY24. Non-GAAP operating margin of 15.0% expanded nicely compared to prior quarter of 10.8% and prior year quarter of (5.1%). Most of the profit margin is driven by the Cloud and Networking segment, which boasted a margin of 23.6% in Q4, up more than 13 points YoY. 

Q4’s adjusted net income margin of 13.1% reflects continued operational improvements and the fourth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement (from 9.6% in Q3, 7.5% in Q2, and 3.6% in Q1).   

Cash Cash 

Cash flows have been lumpy, though Q4 saw Lumentum report the highest operating cash flow margin in the past two years. Despite this, free cash flows are pressured as Lumentum reinvests to expand manufacturing capacity.   

Operating cash flow increased 80% YoY to $64 million, representing a 13.3% margin. This expanded nearly 2 points from 11.5% in the year ago quarter and was a notable uptick from (0.4%) in Q3. For FY25, operating cash flow was up ~5x to $126.4 million, for a 7.7% margin, improving from a 1.8% margin in FY24.  

Free cash flow declined (7%) YoY to $10.1 million, for a 2.1% margin, down from 3.5% in the year ago quarter.  As a result of elevated capex, FY25 free cash flow was ($104.7 million), for a (6.3%) margin, improving only slightly from (8.3%) in FY24.   

Cash and equivalents of $877.1 million in Q4, largely in line with the $866.7 million reported in Q3. Debt remained largely consistent with the prior few quarters at $2.57 billion.  

Valuation Valuation 

Lumentum is trading at peak multiples on a forward PS basis, at 5.2x, nearly twice its average 5-year multiple of 2.8x, where it was valued at as recently as June.  

On the bottom line, Lumentum is trading below average multiples, at 35.3x forward PE versus its 5-year average of 40x and its 2025 peak at 50x in January. However, similar to the topline, this has expanded significantly since June, when Lumentum traded at 19x forward PE.  

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

Customer concentration is a risk present in Lumentum, as two customers currently represent 31% of total revenue. When asked about customer concentration for specific products, such as cloud modules and OCS, management stated that due to their being capacity constrained, it was unlikely they would take on new customers.   

Trading at peak multiples on the top-line also presents a risk, as the company is expected to see quarterly revenue growth peak in fiscal Q1 at 56% and then decelerate to ~40% for the next two quarters, an unfavorable position to be in with an elevated valuation. 

GE Vernova: Aiming for 60GW Backlog, Supplying AI Data Centers 

Thematic: 10/10
Fundamentals: 4/10 
Valuation: 2/10

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

GE Vernova is part of the spinoff that General Electric first announced in 2021 and later completed in 2024. The company broke up its three biggest segments into separate units: GE Healthcare was spun off first in 2023, GE Vernova for the Energy business was spun off in 2024 and began trading as GEV, and GE Aerospace was the business that remained with the existing stock ticker GE. At the time the Energy segment was split up, it was seeing $33 billion in revenue and was helping to generate 30% of the world’s electricity with 55,000 wind turbines and 7,000 gas turbines.   

This year, the company is expected to report $37 billion in revenue with strong earnings growth of 45.3%. The stock is not a hypergrowth profile, but rather, it is a quality, defensible position that could do well during any periods of doubt in the broader AI trend.  

The defensibility is particularly attractive when you consider that gas turbines is the crux of the issue for expanding gas power plants. According to Bloomberg’s calculations, more than “$400 billion worth of gas-fired power plants through the end of the decade are in jeopardy of delay or cancellation because of the lack of capacity to meet future turbine orders.” The same article points toward GE Vernova filling orders as far out as 2030.   

GE Vernova is the world’s largest gas turbine supplier at 25% ahead of Schneider at 24%. Even still, GEV nearly tripled its gas turbine equipment orders this past quarter – a statement that has us sitting up in our seats. Per the earnings call: “Power orders grew 44%, led by Gas Power equipment nearly tripling year-over-year.” In a bid to supply options quickly to alleviate bottlenecks, GEV is also shipping aeroderivative gas turbine packages and doing extensive R&D on a small modular reactor (SMR) design.  

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

GE Vernova is on a path to revenue acceleration in 2026, as it is a major beneficiary of the spending surge of hyperscalers stemming from the increasing energy requirements from the global AI infrastructure build-out. 

The company’s Q2 revenue grew by 11% to $9.11 billion, beating estimates by 3.6%. Organically, revenue grew by 12% YoY to $9.04 billion, primarily due to higher equipment and services revenue. Analysts expect revenue to grow by 2.7% YoY in the next two quarters and revenue growth to accelerate to 8.8% in Q1 2026.  

On the back of strong demand for power and equipment, management has raised its full-year revenue guidance and expects 2025 organic revenue to come at the high end of the guidance of $36 billion to $37 billion. The power segment organic revenue guide is increased to 6-7%, up from the previous single-digit guide, and the electrification segment is expected to grow 20%, up from the previous mid-high teens percentage. On a side note, the wind segment is expected to be down mid-single digits due to the more challenging market conditions.  

Revenue growth is set to accelerate over the next three years. Analysts expect a 6.4% increase in 2025, bringing the total revenue to $37.17 billion, a 5.1% growth in 2024. Momentum is projected to build further, with revenue climbing to $40.7 billion in 2026, up 9.5% and to $45.5 billion in 2027, up 11.9% YoY.  

Key AI Metric Key AI Metric 

In Q2, GEV signed 9GW of new gas equipment contracts with 2GW going directly to orders and 7GW going into what’s called a slot reservation. During the quarter, the company also converted 3GW into orders and shipped 5GW of equipment. GEV is also witnessing robust demand for its aeroderivative technology to support data centers, securing 27 aeroderivative units in the recent quarter compared to only one in the same period last year.  

Overall backlog is now up to 55GW, ahead of the 50GW guided in April, including 29GW in backlog and 25GW in slot reservation agreements (SRA), up from 21GW. GEV is expecting the backlog will reach 60 GW by the end of this year. There was a discussion on the call that this represents 3 years of backlog: “And we've talked about the fact that we'll get to at least 60 gigawatts by the end of the year. So that's directionally 3 years of backlog.”  In other words, the chances that GEV is not a significant player in supplying energy to data centers for many years to come is nil.   

Earnings Earnings 

Q2 GAAP EPS came at $1.86, beating estimates by a solid 14.3% driven by profitable volume, better pricing, and productivity gains. Analysts expect GAAP EPS of $1.85 for Q3 2025 compared to (-$0.35) in the same period last year. They expect GAAP EPS to grow 95.4% YoY to $3.38 in Q4 and 137.4% YoY to $2.16 in Q1 2026.  

Analysts continue to expect strong EPS growth in the coming years. For the year 2025, analysts expect GAAP EPS to grow 45.3% YoY to $8.11, and 58.9% and 41% YoY in the subsequent two years, reaching $18.16 in 2027.  

Margins Margins 

GEV has rather thin margins, with operating margin in the mid-single digits, but management expects that higher turbine prices and strong demand will lead to improved margins as the backlog approached 60GW by year-end. 

Gross margin was 21% in Q2, flat YoY but up 2 points from Q1. Operating margin was 5.6%, rebounding 4.7 points QoQ but down 2.4 points YoY. Net margin was 5.6%, up 2.3 points QoQ but down 10.2 points YoY. 

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.5%, up more than 2 points YoY, with the improvement driven by volume and price, offsetting tariff impacts and investments. While GEV did raise its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guide to 8-9%, management was clear to say that this included approximately one point of negative EBITDA margin related to tariffs. 

Cash Cash 

Management raised full-year free cash flow guidance from a range of $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion to a new range of $3.0 billion to $3.5 billion, primarily driven by a higher profit outlook and increased down payments due to rising orders. Year-to-date, GEV has generated $1.17 billion in free cash flow, implying a strong acceleration of free cash flow in the second half of the year to $2.1 billion.  

Q2 free cash flow of $194 million represented a sharper decline versus $821 million in the same quarter last year, though GEV had benefited from a $300 million arbitration in the comparable quarter. 

GEV has $7.9 billion in cash and equivalents and no debt.  

Valuation Valuation 

GEV is trading near peak multiples on the top line, but there is more room on the bottom line as multiples are not nearly as stretched.  

The stock is trading at approximately 4.6x forward revenue, just below its peak of nearly 4.9x and above its average 2.6x multiple, though data is limited as the spinoff has only traded publicly for a year and a half.  

On the bottom line, GEV trades at 83.3x forward earnings, slightly above its average 73.9x multiple, though shares have traded in as wide a range of 36x to 137x over the past year.  

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

Wind is providing a notable drag on growth and earnings, with GEV stating that they have lost approximately $300 million in the segment through the first half but expect to be closer to breakeven in the second half. Q2 adjusted EBITDA for Wind widened approximately ($50 million) YoY to ($165 million). Additionally, Q3 growth was guided to be down mid-teens YoY, but excluding a one-time settlement in the year ago quarter, growth would be up low single digits. 

Applied Optoelectronics: Optical Component Supplier Targeting 8.5X Capacity Growth by Year-end 

Thematic: 10/10
Fundamentals: 2/10 
Valuation: 3/10

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

Applied Optoelectronics (AOI) is a lesser-known optical component and transceiver supplier, though the small-cap has recently caught our attention for its ambitious capacity growth targets, aiming to become one of the largest domestic manufacturers for 800G transceivers.  

The VSCEL laser, EML chip, and optical transceiver supplier has provided some of the strongest commentary for future growth, with management outlining 8.5x capacity growth by year-end and another 2x capacity growth in 2026. This builds upon a comment slipped into Q1’s call that AOI believes it can become the largest 800G/1.6T optics supplier to Amazon, after signing a deal in March that management says is worth more than $4 billion over ten years.  

AOI also stood out from its 40% QoQ growth in data center revenue in Q2, though this came after a soft Q1 affected by inventory digestion at its largest hyperscale customer and seasonality. Interestingly, data center was not the core driver of growth in Q2, with cable TV taking the reign with 8x YoY growth in the quarter. However, management is eyeing 800G transceivers to begin ramping as early as late Q3, supported by that substantial capacity growth come 2026. 

The crux with AOI is that cash flows are much softer than more-established AI networking stocks, and GAAP margins are still negative, though it’s hard to argue with the implications from the profound expansion in capacity and how optics growth can transform margins.  

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

AOI reported revenue of $102.95 million in Q2, up 138% YoY and 3% QoQ, though this was a modest (2.7%) miss versus consensus estimates. This was a slight deceleration from 146% growth in the previous quarter. Cable TV was the primary growth driver with revenue up 862% YoY to $56 million, while data center revenue rose 30% YoY to $44.8 million. Telecom and other revenue was $2.1 million, down (45%) YoY. 

For Q3, AOI guided for revenue to be between $115 million to $127 million, pointing to 86% YoY growth at midpoint, though on a sequential basis this is a sharp uptick to 17% QoQ growth. Management expects that there may be some initial contribution from 800G modules late in the quarter: “Looking ahead to Q3, we expect a sequential increase in our datacenter revenue, driven by continued growth in our 100G and 400G products with the possibility of layering some additional increased 800G revenue late in the quarter.” 

AI Revenue Growth AI Revenue Growth 

AOI’s data center revenue rose 40% QoQ and 30% YoY to $44.8 million, though the high sequential growth rate (the highest among AI networking stocks we track) was due to a soft comp in Q1, where revenue declined (29%) QoQ on inventory digestion at one of AOI’s largest hyperscaler customers and seasonality. 

>800G revenue has not yet begun to appear as AOI has not yet begun shipments, with volume only going to qualification this quarter and accounted for 1% of data center revenue at maximum. Revenue from 200G/400G products accounted for 20% of revenue, or ~$9 million, while 100G accounted for 70% of revenue, or $31.4 million. 

For Q3, AOI guided for a sequential increase in data center revenue, saying that “400G is picking up so strong in Q3, Q4.” There is also the possibility that some initial 800G revenue begins layering in late in Q3, but primarily in Q4 and into 2026 as capacity expands and customers move ahead with projects.  

Earnings Earnings 

AOI reported a ($0.16) loss per share in Q2, missing estimates for ($0.07), as margins did not improve much sequentially. For Q3, AOI guided for ($0.03) to ($0.10), a decent sequential improvement, likely driven by the ramp in 400G.  

Looking ahead, AOI is expected to shift to GAAP profitability by Q4 and expand earnings through mid-2026, with current estimates pointing to $0.03 in Q4 and rising to $0.19 by Q2 ’26, driven by the ramp of 800G.   

Margins Margins 

AOI is not the strongest on margins, with operating margin widening for a second consecutive quarter on increased expenditures related to customer qualification projects for 800G and 1.6T products.  

AOI reported GAAP gross margin of 30.3%, up more than 8 points YoY but down 0.3 points QoQ. Adjusted gross margin was 30.4%, with management guiding this to be essentially flat next quarter at 30.3%. Management has a medium-term target of 40%, emphasizing that they will need a few quarters for higher-margin 800G and cost reduction efforts from shifting to larger wafers to be seen. 

GAAP operating margin was (15.5%), a notable improvement from over (60%) in the year ago quarter, but widening from (6.5%) in Q4 and (8.9%) in Q1. Adjusted operating margin as (10.5%), down from (4.8%) in Q1 but up from (37.6%) a year ago. 

Net margin was (8.8%), improving from (9.2%) in Q1 and more than (60%) a year ago. Adjusted net margin was (8.6%), down from (0.9%) in Q1 but improving from (25.1%) a year ago. For Q3, management’s guide implies adjusted net margin improving to (3.3%) at midpoint. 

Cash Cash 

Cash flows are also quite weak, though this has been mostly from surging accounts receivables and capex to support capacity expansion, a solid signal for the upcoming 800G ramp in conjunction with management’s commentary. 

Operating cash flow in Q2 was ($65.5 million), widening from ($50.9 million) in Q1 as inventories and accounts receivables surged, up $36 million and $40 million QoQ respectively. OCF margin was (63.6%), down from (4.6%) a year ago and (51%) in Q1.  

Free cash flow was ($104.3 million), widening from ($87.2 million) in Q1. Capex for the quarter was $38.8 million as AOI is quickly purchasing equipment to meet its aggressive capacity expansion targets for year-end and mid-year 2026. 

Cash totaled $87.2 million versus $188.2 million in debt, with AOI recently completing its ATM program in Q2, raising $98 million net cash that will help support its capacity expansion and R&D.  

Valuation Valuation 

AOI is trading a 4.2x forward revenue multiple, well below its 8x peak at the end of 2024 but also far above its low of 1.2x in April, emphasizing the volatility that stems from its small-cap profile with strong growth and weak cash. 

On the bottom line, shares are trading at 37.5x estimated EPS of $0.85 in 2026, with this expected to be the company’s first year of GAAP profitability since 2017. 

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

The primary risks with AOI stem from its margin profile as it is much weaker than more established networking players as well as the hypergrowth players we track. While there is an expectation for margins and EPS to improve through 2026 as 800G/1.6T products ramp, this will need to be proven over the coming few quarters. The weak cash flows also present a risk if there is a prolonged recovery, given the thinner cash position AOI has.  

Micron: HBM, LP Server DRAM Driving Strong Growth 

Thematic: 9/10
Fundamentals: 6/10 
Valuation: 7/10

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

Micron is a primary beneficiary of rapidly increasing dollar content of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips with each new generation of GPUs. AI training and inference rely heavily on HBM for the massive memory bandwidth that complex models require. AI servers also use more DRAM and NAND than a traditional server. These are reasons that Micron’s cyclical fundamentals could become more secular as the AI economy is built out.  

In fiscal 2025, Micron’s HBM, high-capacity dual in-line memory modules (DIMMs) and low-power (LP) server DRAM revenue reached $10 billion, up more than fivefold from the prior year, while HBM alone reached $2 billion in revenue in Q4.  

Management expects robust AI server demand, the shift to HBM4 and tight DRAM supply to remain tailwinds to growth and profitability moving through 2026: “we expect healthy demand supply environment in 2026 for overall DRAM, and that bodes well for profitability of DRAM, profitability of HBM and of course, profitability of non-HBM as well, which is experiencing tight supply.” 

What Micron will need to answer is if the cyclical nature of the memory market will smooth out as the dollar content of memory is rapidly increasing. Data center is already proving to be a strong driver of growth for Micron, accounting for 56% of sales in FY25, up from 35% in FY24. On a dollar basis, data center revenue surged 137% YoY to $20.75 billion. 

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

Micron reported record Q4 revenue of $11.32 billion, driven by DRAM products (and within that HBM) with revenue up 27% QoQ to $9 billion. Growth accelerated nearly 10 points sequentially to 46% YoY, and on a sequential basis, growth was 22% QoQ, a six point acceleration. Micron guided to a fresh record in Q1 at $12.5 billion at midpoint, pointing to 44% YoY growth and 9% QoQ. 

For FY25, revenue rose 49% YoY to $37.38 billion, driven primarily by DRAM and HBM revenue, which rose more than 62% YoY to $28.58 billion. HBM reached an annualized run rate of $8 billion in Q4, with HBM share to grow again in Q1 and HBM4 capacity in discussions to be sold out for calendar 2026. Micron has not provided a full-year guide for revenue, but current consensus estimates call for 43% growth to $53.5 billion in revenue. 

AI Revenue Growth AI Revenue Growth 

In fiscal 2025, Micron's data center reached a record 56% of company revenue, with growth primarily driven by DRAM products and aided by data center SSDs and NAND components. Overall, data center revenue increased 137% YoY to $20.75 billion.  

Micron’s Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU), which consists of its HBM, high-capacity dual in-line memory modules (DIMMs), and low-power server DRAM solutions, saw revenue surge 257% YoY in fiscal 2025 to $13.57 billion, or YoY growth of nearly $10 billion. Micron’s other data center unit, its Core Data Center Business Unit (CDBU), consists primarily of data center SSDs and NAND components. This unit saw revenue growth of 45% YoY to $7.23 billion.  

For Q4, CMBU revenue rose 214% YoY to $4.54 billion, while CDBU revenue declined (23%) YoY. CMBU revenue growth was driven by HBM and strong bit shipment growth, though Micron offered no commentary behind the decline for CDBU. 

Earnings Earnings 

Micron is expected to see earnings double this fiscal year as margins have swiftly recovered from late 2023 and early 2024. In Q4, Micron reported adjusted EPS of $3.04, up 157% YoY and beating estimates by 6%.  

For Q1, Micron guided for adjusted EPS to be $3.75, +/- $0.15, more than 23% ahead of guidance and corresponding to YoY growth of 110%. Earnings growth is expected to reaccelerate to 155% in Q2 but then decelerate to 126% in Q3. For the full year, Micron is expected to see 100% YoY growth to $16.63.  

Margins Margins 

Micron’s margin turnaround story has been impressive, with gross margin up more than 55 points over the last two years and operating margin up more than 66 points.  

GAAP gross margin in Q4 was 44.7%, up 7 points QoQ and 9.4 points YoY, aided by strong growth in CMBU which carried a 59% gross margin in the quarter, DRAM pricing and favorable product mix. For Q1, gross margin was guided to be 50.5% at midpoint, a nearly 6 point sequential expansion and up more than 12 points YoY.  

Operating margin was 32.3%, up 9 points QoQ and 12.7 points YoY, again aided by CMBU which carried a 48% margin in the fourth quarter. For Q1, Micron expects operating margin to be 38.6%, up more than 6 points QoQ and more than 13.5 points YoY, signaling some tailwinds from operating leverage from CMBU. 

Net margin was 28.3% in Q4, up 8 points QoQ and nearly 17 points YoY. The trajectory within gross and operating margins suggests that there is a path for net margin to potentially expand to the mid-30% range in FY26. 

Cash Cash 

Operating cash flow was $5.73 billion for Q4, up 68% YoY and more than 24% QoQ. OCF margin was 50.6%, up 1 point from Q3 and up 6.7 points YoY. For the year, Micron generated operating cash flow of $17.53 billion, more than doubling from $8.51 billion in fiscal 2024, with OCF margin expanding 13 points to 46.9%. 

Adjusted free cash flow was $801 million in Q4, shrinking from $1.95 billion in Q3 on surging capex. Adjusted FCF margin was 7.1%, up from 4.2% in the year ago quarter but down from 21% in Q3. 

Micron reported total cash and equivalents of $11.9 billion and total debt of $14.6 billion. 

Valuation Valuation 

Despite its recent rally, Micron trades at reasonable multiples, well below its peak from 2024. On the top line, Micron trades at 4x forward revenue, 10% above its average 3.6x multiple and far below its peak of 6.8x from mid 2024. 

On the bottom line, Micron trades at 11.6x forward earnings, though its 43.9x average is skewed higher by 2024’s >100x multiples when margins were razor-thin. Since the start of 2025, Micron has traded as high as 16x forward earnings and as low as 8x. 

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

Micron’s growth to this point and beyond has been centered around HBM, both on the top and bottom lines. CMBU is the only unit that sees operating margins above the corporate total, at 48% versus 25%, 29% and 20% for its other segments, meaning that future operating margin expansion will be tied solely to growth from CMBU, and felt more the faster CMBU grows. This may mean that margin and earnings upside in 2026 may be limited come 2027.  

Talen: $18 Billion, 17-Year Nuclear Deal With Amazon 

Thematic: 10/10
Fundamentals: 5/10 
Valuation: 3/10

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

Talen is an independent power producer with its power assets primarily located in the PJM region, with more than 10GW of generation capacity with 2.2GW nuclear. With assets primarily located in Pennsylvania, Maryland and now Ohio, Talen has exposure to growing data center regions, having already locked in a long-term power agreement with Amazon to fuel data centers in Pennsylvania.  

Talen’s deal with Amazon not only locked in substantial power generation for Amazon’s data center assets in a time the industry is facing a power crunch, but also locked in substantial revenue and free cash flow generation for Talen. The deal is expected to add a visible 50% uplift in cash flows as the deal ramps into full capacity by 2032, while providing a repeatable colocation model for Talen’s other assets to meet rising data center demand in the PJM region.  

Talen is also expanding its power production portfolio with recent acquisitions of the Freedom Energy Center and Guernsey Power Station for ~$3.8 billion gross, expected to add 2.8 GW of combined-cycle natural gas generation capacity in the PJM region. The two plants are suitable for hyperscale data center supply, and are also expected to be immediately accretive to cash flows. 

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

Talen’s Q2 revenue rose 29% YoY and 62% QoQ to $630 million, positively impacted by a $176 million gain on derivatives (compared to a $76 million gain in the year ago quarter). Revenue from contracts with customers was $409 million, up 18% YoY but down (37%) QoQ. This shows the quarterly fluctuations that can stem from commodity contract hedging. For the first half of the year, Talen’s revenue was $1.02 billion, up 2% YoY, though revenue from customer contracts was $1.06 billion, up 40% YoY.  

Looking ahead, Talen has some visibility into 2026 revenue from the PJM auction in July, where Talen cleared 6.7 GW of capacity translating to ~$805 million in capacity revenue for the 2026-27 planning year lasting June 2026 through May 2027. Talen expects 2026 capacity revenue of ~$747 million, up ~124% from $333 million projected in 2025. For additional perspective, capacity revenues were just $88 million in Q2, or ~22% of total contracted revenue with customers. 

Key AI Metric Key AI Metric 

Talen’s AI ties are to Amazon, having expanded and signed a 17-year power purchase agreement through 2042 with the hyperscaler to power its data center adjacent to the Susquehanna plant and potentially other facilities in the Pennsylvania region.  

Talen signed the 1.92 GW agreement worth $18 billion in June, and expects to deliver the first 240MW by mid-2026, scaling to 360MW by mid-2027 and 480MW by mid-2028. Full volume is expected to be reached no later than 2032 with potential to accelerate this timeline, with price escalators through 2042.  

Though Talen has not provided a view into how it believes revenue will ramp, at face value the deal is worth more than $1 billion in average annual revenue, though it will take up to seven years to reach full volume. Talen has provided a glimpse into how the deal will accrete to FCF in the ramp stage. The company expects $1.55 in FCF from Amazon in fiscal 2026, before rising to $4.00 to $5.75 by fiscal 2029 (with 840-1,200MW delivered), and to $7.00 to $8.25 by fiscal 2032 (1,600MW to full capacity). 

Earnings Earnings 

Talen reported GAAP EPS of $1.50 in Q2, rebounding from ($2.94) in Q4 as sharper losses on commodity contracts ate into revenue. This is also not comparable to the year ago quarter where Talen reported $7.60 in EPS, as this included an approximate $9.40/share benefit from the sale of its Cumulus data center to Amazon.  

For fiscal 2025, Talen is expected to report $5.39 in GAAP EPS, signaling a strong second half of the year, with 2026 EPS projected to surge 285% to $20.74. 

Margins Margins 

Talen’s gross margin (operating revenues including derivatives minus energy expenses) was 60% in Q2, down from 63.3% in the year ago quarter. Operating margin was 10.5%, up from 5.5% in the year ago quarter and (27.2%) in Q1, driven by the adverse revenue impact from derivate losses. 

Net margin was 11.4% in Q2, which does not compare to the asset-sale impacted margin from the year ago quarter of 92.8%. Q1’s net margin was (34.6%), dragged down by derivatives.  

Cash Cash 

Talen’s operating cash flow was ($184 million) in Q2 for a (29.2%) margin, bringing 1H operating cash flow to ($65 million) for a (6.4%) margin, down from $150 million for a 15% margin in the year ago period. 

Adjusted FCF was ($78 million) in Q2 for a (7.6%) margin, with 1H adjusted FCF just $9 million. Talen maintained its guidance for $450 to $540 million in adjusted FCF for the year, implying a significantly stronger second half of the year.  

For fiscal 2026, Talen is guiding to $980 million to $1.18 billion in adjusted FCF, more than doubling YoY, and for fiscal 2027, adjusted FCF of $1.055 billion to $1.425 billion. This would represent over 250% growth in just two years.  

Talen’s cash balance is extremely thin at $122 million versus its reported debt at $2.97 billion in Q2, though pro-forma debt is actually much higher at $6.56 billion, including $3.8 billion for the acquisitions of the Freedom and Guernsey natural gas plants to add >2.8GW capacity. 

Valuation Valuation 

Talen is trading at peak multiples on the top-line at 8.6x forward revenue, more than 2x its average multiple of 3.6x. On the bottom-line, Talen trades at 80.9x estimated FY25 EPS, at peak levels, but for FY26 EPS, Talen trades at a more reasonable 22.2x multiple, far below its peak 1-year forward multiple of nearly 41x. On an adjusted FCF basis, Talen trades at 18.8x FY26’s adjusted FCF per share guidance of $23.60 at midpoint, versus 43.1x FY25’s adjusted FCF of $10.30 at midpoint. 

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

Talen has a thin balance sheet with substantial debt, and has launched multiple financings via term loans, revolving credit facilities and senior notes to fund its recent acquisitions, though it still may need more cash over the next few quarters. The Amazon deal does de-risk the future growth story by locking in substantial revenue and free cash flow growth, but not for its immediate-term cash needs. Talen had emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2023 with a significantly reduced balance sheet, though its cash balance has returned to extremely thin levels; the Amazon deal beckons a strong ramp in FCF that may be able to pad the balance sheet in the future. 

Nebius: Microsoft Deal Worth up to $19.4 Billion Supports Hypergrowth Phase 

Thematic: 10/10
Fundamentals: 3/10 
Valuation: 1/10

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

Nebius is similar to CoreWeave, dubbing itself as AI native cloud infrastructure, which means the infrastructure was built specifically for AI workloads with architectures built on bare metal servers instead of hypervisor layers, for example. This approach along with a few other optimizations can result in significantly faster training.  

Nebius offers an Nvidia-optimized cloud platform for teams that need to adjust compute resources, want high-performance storage and an easy-to-use AI environment yet do not want to manage the infrastructure or AI operations. The stock surged earlier this month off the announcement of a mega deal with Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion. This deal signals just how supply constrained the market is, given Microsoft is willing to partner with a neocloud to scale quickly. 

Given Nebius’ roots are from Yandex, one might question if Nebius is truly AI-native as some of the Finnish data center in Europe was built in 2014. However, that is also where one of Nebius’ strength lies, which is the company offers European data centers which helps a company like Microsoft to expand quickly overseas. 

To serve the AI-native market, Nebius has been building out colocation sites to increase capacity and lower latency for the incoming inference market. Companies like Cloudflare and Shopify are early customers, both of which need to power inference at the edge. The company is also expanding beyond Europe with data center expansions in New Jersey and Kansas. 

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

Nebius reported a slight beat in Q2 with revenue of $105.1 million, up 625% YoY and 106% QoQ, versus estimates for $101.2 million. AI cloud infrastructure revenue rose more than 9x YoY in the quarter, fueled by strong demand for Hopper GPUs and almost peak GPU utilization.  

Looking ahead, Q2 is marking an inflection point for revenue, with growth accelerating sequentially on a dollar basis. Q3 is estimated to see revenue up more than $52 million QoQ to $157.1 million, before rising another $106 million QoQ to $263.8 million in Q4. For FY25, Nebius has maintained its guidance for $450 million to $630 million in revenue, excluding $50 million to $70 million in revenue attributed to one of its subsidiaries, Toloka. 

Nebius is one of the more unique names in the AI universe as one of the few, if not only, AI-focused stock to have multiple years of triple-digit revenue growth ahead. Nebius had already laid out expectations for a meaningful acceleration next year prior to the Microsoft deal, based on timing of capacity ramp in Q4 2025 and throughout 2026. The recent deal with Microsoft is extending this acceleration, with revenue revised more than $3 billion higher by 2029, or 24% to 65% above prior expectations. 

Prior to the Microsoft deal, Nebius was expected to surpass $5 billion in annual revenue in 2029, doubling from $2.5 billion in 2027. After the deal, revenue estimates have been raised 24% to $3.1 billion in 2027, and 65% higher to $8.44 billion by 2029. 

AI Revenue Growth AI Revenue Growth 

In Q2, Nebius boosted its AI Cloud annualized run rate guidance by 14%, supported by its data center expansion, more power coming online in 2H and the rollout of more Blackwell and soon Blackwell Ultra GPUs. To note, the increased ARR guidance preceded the Microsoft deal, although it may be unlikely that ARR guidance will be raised much this year considering that capacity roll-out for Microsoft is more geared towards 2026. 

Q2 ARR rose ~73% QoQ and 438% YoY to $439 million, marking a significant two-quarter expansion from $90 million in Q4. Nebius is targeting ARR to more than double over the next two quarters, raising its guidance to $900 million to $1.1 billion, up from its prior view for $750 million to $1 billion. 

Nebius explained that the “increase in our ARR guidance reflects the strong demand we are seeing and the expected delivery of additional GPU capacity later this year, particularly the Blackwell Ultras. Because much of this capacity will come online by the end of the year, the impact will show up more in ARR than within the year’s revenue.” Much of the ARR growth is likely to be weighted towards Q4, considering the majority of GPU installations will take place that quarter, such as the ~4,000 Blackwell Ultras in the UK. 

Earnings Earnings 

Nebius is expected to report negative EPS through all of fiscal 2025 and 2026, with no clear indication yet of when the company could or will shift to profitability. Current estimates show Nebius losing ($1.47) in 2025 and minimal improvement to ($1.34) in 2026. 

There are no analyst estimates beyond 2026, but given the capital intensity of greenfield data center development, continuous scaling of capacity, not to mention potential investments into the autonomous driving unit Avride, Nebius may face a long road to profitability. 

Margins Margins 

While gross margin is expanding rapidly, up from 26% in Q4 to over 70% in Q2, operating margins remain deeply negative as due to the high costs of aggressively expanding data center capacity and GPUs on hand. 

Excluding Toloka’s contribution, its subsidiary that was deconsolidated in Q2, gross margin was 71.3%, up nearly 20 points from 51.5% in Q1 and improving nearly 25 points from 46.9% in the year ago quarter. Nebius is now slightly below CoreWeave’s Q2 gross margin of 74.2%, and it remains to be seen how much further upside there is to gross margin as new capacity comes online. 

Q2 operating margin was (105.8%), a notable improvement from (236.4%) in Q1 and (773.8%) in the year-ago quarter. Nebius is exhibiting initial signs of operating leverage, with total operating expenses up just 71% YoY versus the 625% YoY growth in revenue; this was driven mainly by 560% YoY growth in depreciation from increased server capacity, as SG&A decreased (10%) YoY. 

GAAP net margin was 556%, as Nebius benefited from a one-time $597.4 million gain from Toloka. Adjusted net margin offers a clearer view of Nebius’ trajectory, coming in at (87.1%) in Q2, up from (164.4%) in Q1 and (424.8%) in the year ago quarter. 

Cash  Cash  

Aggressive capacity expansion plans and a 33% increase in FY25 capex expectations from $1.5 billion to $2 billion, or nearly 4x expected revenue for the year, mean Nebius is quickly burning through cash. 

Operating cash flow was ($167.7) million in Q2, for a (159.6%) margin, improving from a (357.7%) margin in Q1. This represented just a $30 million sequential improvement from ($197.8) million, suggesting that the path to positive cash flows may be prolonged. Free cash flow was ($678.3) million in Q2 for a (645.4%) margin, versus ($741.8 million) for a (1341.4%) margin in Q1. 

Capex was $510.6 million in Q2, or nearly 5x of revenue, down slightly from $544 million in Q1. 1H capex surpassed $1.05 billion, meaning $0.5 billion to $1 billion is on deck for 2H.  

Cash and equivalents totaled $1.68 billion, up only slightly from $1.45 billion in Q1 as Nebius deployed much of June’s $1 billion raise to capex and operations. Including the recent $2.75 billion raise and $1 billion share sale, cash is likely around or above $5 billion. At current burn rates, Nebius would have nearly 10 quarters of cash, but it is likely that capex will accelerate (think of CoreWeave as a leading indicator) to support growth in power and capacity. Debt was $0.98 billion as of Q2, not including the recently priced $2.75 billion in notes. 

Valuation Valuation 

Nebius also trades at a substantial premium to CoreWeave despite lagging its competitor in terms of active power, contracted power and revenue scale. Based on FY26’s revenue estimate, Nebius trades at a forward 18.2x multiple, more than triple CoreWeave’s 5.9x multiple. However, given revenue growth is expected to be triple-digits through 2028, the market is pricing Nebius to quickly grow into these multiples. 

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

Nebius is even more complicated than CoreWeave given they also own a capital-intensive autonomous driving division, among other investments, and was formally the company Yandex. Nebius is high-risk given its success depends on how much capital the company can raise, and the likelihood it remains in CoreWeave’s shadow is high. Regardless of how Nebius competes with CoreWeave, it remains an AI bubble stock as the company has to hope the stock prices goes up to raise cash, which will dilute shareholders (or raise debt). It’s a vicious cycle as during any months/quarters that AI stocks are soft, Nebius stock will carry outsized execution risk. 

Cloudflare: Multi-Faceted AI Positioning, Steady Growth 

Thematic: 9/10
Fundamentals: 5/10 
Valuation: 1/10

Brief Overview: Brief Overview: 

There is a quiet strength in Cloudflare’s fundamentals and key metrics. For example, Cloudflare passed a $2B run rate for the first time, signed their first $100M deal, dollar-based net retention (DBNRR) seems to have bottomed along with a slight 1.3% acceleration in revenue. Regarding the bottom line, Cloudflare is certainly stronger than many cloud peers yet tends to walk a razor’s edge due to capex.  

Cloudflare references its business units as “Acts” – Act 1, Act 2 and Act 3. The company defines Act 1 as application security, Act 2 as Zero Trust and Act 3 as the Workers Platform. For our purposes as stock investors, it’s Act 3 we are most interested in. 

Regarding AI inference and the Workers Platform, management connected some important dots on the earnings call as to why agentic AI will drive forward the massive inference trend. The I/O Fund team recently dug up a stat inference is expected to account for 60% to 70% of AI workloads by 2030. In particular, Cloudflare emphasizes their position is what will help the company win this market: “The fact that we sit in front of so much of the web and that more than half of our dynamic traffic is already between APIs means that we are strategically positioned to deliver the agentic web of the future.”  

Cloudflare also introduced Act 4 – a new product that will help AI search engines connect with (and potentially) pay publishers for using derivatives of their copyrighted works. Although the amount of demand for this and exactly how Cloudflare will monetize this new product is not clear, it is interesting management feels confident enough to call the new use case its fourth act.   

Overall Revenue Growth Overall Revenue Growth 

Cloudflare reported its largest revenue beat in the last six quarters at 2.1% above consensus, with Q2 revenue up 27.8% YoY to $512.3 million. This also marked a slight 1.3 point acceleration on the top-line from 26.5% growth in Q1.   

For Q3, Cloudflare guided for revenue of $543.5 to $544.5 million, ahead of estimates at the time for $538.9 million. This corresponds to a slight deceleration to the mid-to-high 26% YoY growth range, where Cloudflare is expected to remain through Q4. This provides no clear indication yet that the company is able to drive a sustained revenue acceleration aided by AI.  However, consensus estimates are now above the high-end of management’s guidance at $544.9 million, essentially already pricing in stronger momentum fueling a beat for Q3.  

For the full-year, Cloudflare raised its outlook to $2,113.5 million to $2,115.5 million, for YoY growth of 26.7%. This is a $22.5 million increase at midpoint from Cloudflare’s prior outlook for $2,090 million to $2,094 million for growth of 25.3%.  

Key AI Metric Key AI Metric 

Although management has been optimistic about AI driving a re-acceleration on the top-line, Cloudflare has not broken out AI revenue or contribution to growth. Other key metrics have remained strong in Q2. 

RPO increased 39% YoY and 6% QoQ to $1.98 billion.  Current RPO accounted for 66% of total RPO, or ~$1.30 billion, increasing 33% YoY in Q2, a four point acceleration from 29% growth in Q1.This is also a notable uplift from 26% growth in the year ago quarter.  Billings also increased 33% YoY to $559.2 million, a third straight quarter with growth above 30% YoY.   

Paying customers increased 27.5% YoY to 267,929 in Q2, the second quarter in a row with 27%+ growth. This is a notable improvement from 17% and 21% growth in Q1 and Q2 2024. Cloudflare stated that it added a record number of customers YoY spending over $1M and over $5M.   

Earnings Earnings 

Cloudflare topped estimates in Q2 driven by the revenue beat and stronger adjusted margins, and boosted its FY25 adjusted EPS outlook as a result. GAAP EPS was ($0.15), missing estimates for ($0.08) as GAAP margins drifted lower. Adjusted EPS was $0.21, beating estimates for $0.18, fueled the outperformance in adjusted operating margin in the quarter.   

For Q3, Cloudflare guided for $0.23 in adjusted EPS, a slight uptick sequentially, while for FY25, the company raised its forecast from $0.79-$0.80 to $0.85-$0.86. This corresponds to growth of ~14.5% YoY, up from the mid-6% range previously. Growth is expected to be much stronger in FY26 at ~30% YoY to $1.12.  

Margins Margins 

Gross margins drifted lower in Q2, driven by both an increase in depreciation expenses and in allocated costs from higher network traffic from paying customers. GAAP operating margins followed, moving further away from reaching break-even.  

Cloudflare had an interesting comment on long-term margins, stating that it expects to remain comfortably in its 75% to 77% adjusted gross margin target despite passing on substantial savings to Workers’ customers. This suggests that upside to operating margins will be driven by expenditures, such as moderating higher sales & marketing spending, at 36% of revenue versus its target range of 27-29%, and high SBC at 24% of revenue.  

GAAP gross margin was 74.9% in Q2, down nearly 3 points YoY and 1 point QoQ. Adjusted gross margin was 76.3%, down 2.7 points YoY and 0.8 points QoQ.  

GAAP operating margin was (13.1%), down 4.4 points YoY and 2 points QoQ. Adjusted operating margin was 14.1%, approximately flat YoY and up 2.4 points QoQ; this was also ahead of guidance for 12.6%. For Q3, Cloudflare guided for adjusted operating income of $75-76 million, pointing to adjusted operating margin of 13.9%, down nearly 1 point YoY and moderating slightly QoQ.  

GAAP net margin was (9.8%), down 6 points YoY and 1.8 points QoQ. Adjusted net margin was 14.7%, down 2.6 points YoY but up 2.5 points QoQ.  

Cash  Cash  

Cash flow margins contracted sequentially, while Cloudflare significantly bolstered its cash pile after a large convertible note issuance.   

Operating cash flow was $99.8 million for a 19% margin, flat YoY but down from a 30% margin in Q1.  Free cash flow was $33.3 million for a 6% margin, down 4 points YoY and 5 points QoQ.  Network capex was 11% of revenue in Q2, down from 17% of revenue in Q2. Cloudflare stuck to its guidance for network capex to be 12-13% of revenue for the year, suggesting slight moderation in 2H.   

In June, Cloudflare raised $1.97 billion in new convertible notes due 2030, raising its cash on hand to $3.96 billion while convertible notes outstanding rose to $3.26 billion.   

Valuation Valuation 

Cloudflare is trading at peak multiples, and is the second-most expensive name in the software universe behind Palantir. Cloudflare trades at 36.2x forward revenue, slightly below its late September peak of 37.6x but nearly double its average 19.7x multiple.  

On the bottom-line, Cloudflare is not yet GAAP profitable, but on an adjusted basis, the company trades at 256x forward earnings, again far above its 144.5x average multiple.  

Notable Risks Notable Risks 

Given Cloudflare’s valuation, the entry is probably the most important aspect of this stock right now – whereas in the medium to long-term the most important aspect is timing for the broader inference market.  The market looks to already be pricing in a sustainable AI inference-aided reacceleration on the topline despite the fact that this has not appeared concretely, amplifying risk if this does not visibly pan out over the next couple of quarters.  

Conclusion: 

We are thrilled about our new tier Discovery as the results are able to deliver new ideas to enthusiastic AI investors, such as ourselves. We quickly spotted the limitations around running an active portfolio that does not dedicate a separate effort to new idea generation as the market moves fast with new winners emerging every year. As we look at Q4 and beyond, we believe this quarterly analysis combined with an actively managed Top 10 list will become a strong offering. Our cumulative record proves we are one of the strongest teams in the world on AI stocks. Moving forward, our goal is to use our proven methodology to deliver additional value add as we participate heavily in the once-in-a-lifetime trend of AI.  

In the coming weeks, we expect things to shift rapidly as new information is published daily during earnings season. Please reference our Top 10 Watchlist spreadsheet and incoming analysis as critical tools for staying on top of the Must Know stocks in the space. 

Our goal is to update this list weekly, so stay tuned for frequent updates!

Damien Robbins, Equity Analyst at I/O Fund contributed to this analysis.

Every Thursday at 4:30 pm Eastern, the I/O Fund team holds a webinar for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock and crypto entries and exits. Beth Kindig offers weekly deep dives including lesser-known cryptocurrencies and AI stocks, plus the team offers trade alerts. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. If you’d like to subscribe to the Advanced Market Signals plan, email us at premium@io-fund.compremium@io-fund.com.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Why Power is Critical for Data Centers and their Hyperscaler Customers

Posted on September 29, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions of dollars annually on AI data center capex, from physical data center space, GPUs and servers, hardware and networking. With these substantial sums flowing towards GPUs that are now being refreshed on an annual cadence, the impetus for hyperscalers, neoclouds and other cloud providers turns to how quickly these GPUs can be energized and deployed, to maximize the period of returns before the next generation comes online. 

If a company like Microsoft buys tens of billions of Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs, the longer the massive investment in GPUs waits for power, the more delayed that revenue and profits become. In turn, this plays into market share as competitors who can energize GPUs faster will have a critical head start over those that are waiting for power. This is simple in concept, yet the lack of power having vast consequences cannot be overstated if you combine the sheer size of investments being made in AI alongside fierce, heightened competition.

AI is a spending race, but this means it is at the core, a power race. It does not matter if a hyperscaler spends tens of billions more on capex if it cannot secure the power to stand up new data center infrastructure to then deploy those GPUs immediately. The AI market is officially moving from being compute constrained to being power constrained, and this shift is important for I/O Fund members to prepare for.

We were among the first research companies to cover this topic in June of 2024, many quarters before the problem became well-known. We furthered this by investing early in a Bitcoin miner and one of the year’s highest-performing AI energy stocks. When we say we work hard to be early to trends for the benefit of our Members, we mean exactly that.

Given that we are soon approaching the moment when AI becomes (painfully) power constrained, we want to revisit this trend by examining how hyperscalers and others are powering new data centers. Below, we also look at the methods that can provide power the quickest, along with insights into location and costs, and more. As you can imagine, this analysis will help inform additional stock ideas as we position for 2026 and beyond.

Why Power is Critical, and Why it Will Continue to Be

More than one year ago, we first discussed how quickly power consumption was increasing with new GPUs in the analysis AI Power Consumption: Rapidly Becoming Mission-Critical. This trend is set to continue with Nvidia pushing towards an ultimate goal of super-sized 1MW server racks, or 8x more than GB200 racks. 

Nvidia’s Blackwell lineup already brings a significant increase in power consumption, nearly double the H200’s 70 kW at 120 kW for the GB200 NVL72 and 140 kW for the upcoming GB300 racks.  

Beyond Blackwell, Nvidia’s future design lineup shows continual increases in power consumption. Its Rubin generation is expected to boost thermal design power (TDP) by 50% over Blackwell at up to 180 kW per rack, with the upgraded Vera Rubin then doubling this to 360 kW per rack by 2027. In its largest configuration, the Vera Rubin NVL576, dubbed the ‘Kyber’ rack, could draw as much as 600 kW (0.6 MW), or 5x that of the GB200 NVL72 in just a two-year design timeframe. These figures do not include networking, interconnects, cooling and other hardware, which will further boost power draw per rack.

This rapid increase in power consumption per GPU generation is critical, as existing infrastructure is simply unable to meet these escalating power demands. For example, Applied Digital pointed out that nearly 70% of current data centers “contain racks requiring between four and nine kW of power, and less than two percent of data centers have racks with greater than 50kW.” For comparison, Super Micro’s GB200 NVL72 SuperCluster requires 132kW, while the upcoming Kyber rack could more than quadruple that to 600kW. Because Blackwell-based servers are now 15x to 30x the power density, cooling and power delivery strategies have to be redesigned, as liquid cooling now becomes a necessity.  

This sharp rise in power density means current infrastructure may be unable to transition from 4-9kW racks to >130kW racks without incurring significant retrofitting costs, while building new infrastructure bypasses that hurdle and allows for optimization for high-powered racks.

The push to 600kW racks over the next few years means this is not a transient problem, rather it is one that the industry will continue to face, meaning continuous new construction may be needed to handle surging power demand. For example, Vantage’s upcoming 1.4 GW campus in Texas for Oracle is designed for ultra-high density racks up to 250kW, yet this will not be enough power to able to host NVL576 racks in just two to three years’ time. Additionally, a former Microsoft Azure AI executive reportedly said he estimated that the “requirements in terms of power for the data center would probably at least double every three years and maybe exponentially so over a period of time,” further reinforcing this.

How Much Does 1 GW Cost?

At this point, we can reasonably estimate costs to build 1 GW of new AI data center capacity, though ultimately, this will depend upon location (given some of the disparities in construction costs regionally), as well as hardware, as newest gen-GPUs will require more advanced ancillary equipment and cooling tech than older, less power generations (such as Hopper).

For example, GPUs and necessary ancillary hardware including InfiniBand/Ethernet, cooling and other equipment is likely in the range of $18 million to $24 million per MW for high-end GPUs such as Nvidia’s B200s.

IREN disclosed that it purchased ~4,200 B200s and ancillary equipment for $193 million, which calculates out to the mid ~$21 million per MW range based on total power draw of 1.93kW and a 1.1 PUE. For AMD’s Instinct MI350X GPU, which consumes ~1kw before ancillary equipment, costs could be towards the lower end of range, given its pricing at ~$25,000 per GPU, versus ~$30,000 to $40,000 for the B200. Pricing and power needs for custom silicon are much more opaque, though it is likely that these chips come at a greater discount compared to Nvidia and AMD’s leading GPUs.

Translating this to GW-scale, IREN’s 50MW facility can host >20K B200 GPUs, which, based on its purchase pricing, translates out to $21.6 billion per GW. For its planned 2GW Sweetwater campus, IREN claims it can support ~600K GB300 GPUs, which, at ~$80,000 per GPU, would cost $48 billion, or $24 billion per GW.

Cushman & Wakefield estimates new data center construction costs per MW in the range of $9-15 million across key markets, averaging $11-13 million. This aligns with estimates from CBRE for $10-14 million per MW, though costs can reach $16-20 million per MW in certain cases (or higher).  This is simply for the ‘powered shell’, or the core building that has grid connection and has power in place, but has not been outfitted with racks or servers per tenant specifications.

Cushman & Wakefield estimates new data center construction costs per MW in the range of $9-15 million across key markets, averaging $11-13 million.

Source: Cushman & WakefieldCushman & Wakefield

So, assuming construction costs of ~$12 to $14 million per MW, total costs per MW for new facilities, GPUs and ancillary equipment are estimated between $30 to $38 million per MW. In total, this projects to roughly $30 to $38 billion per GW to build a data center from the ground up.In total, this projects to roughly $30 to $38 billion per GW to build a data center from the ground up. This is backed by Microsoft’s early 2025 announcement for ~$80 billion in spending for AI data centers in fiscal 2025 corresponding to >2 GW of new capacity additions.

Putting This in Terms of Capex

While capex is ultimately one of the more important figures for AI investors to track, it’s necessary to put in perspective how much capacity this capex correlates to, considering the tight grip power has over the industry.

Consider that the largest tech firms – Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle – are on track to likely spend upwards of $380 billion this year, up more than 50% YoY, and closer to $500 billion in 2026, with the majority going towards data centers. This puts total spending in 2025 and 2026 potentially as high as $880 billion, not even including CoreWeave, Nebius, xAI and others building out capacity.

Running off this calculation that each GW of new capacity could cost between $30 to $38 billion from the ground up, for the powered shell, GPUs and related hardware, we can reasonably estimate how many GW that Big Tech could bring online based on capex spend.

Assuming ~70% of capex goes directly towards data center capacity, given that hyperscalers and neoclouds alike continue to talk about supply constraints and strength of demand, this projects Big Tech could bring ~7-9 GW online with 2025 capex of $380 billion. For 2026, this would project ~9-12 GW of new capacity coming online, or cumulative total of ~16-21 GW.

Now, assuming closer to ~85% of capex goes towards new data center capacity, as Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet now have a new cloud contender to deal with in Oracle (who also must build capacity rapidly to meet nearly half a trillion in RPO), this projects much larger buildouts. For 2025, this would estimate ~8.5-11 GW of new capacity and another 11-14 GW in 2026, or cumulative needs of nearly 20-25 GW. At midpoint, this would be ~4 GW higher than the prior assumption.

Forecasts All Point to Surging Capacity & Demand Growth

As we had covered in our free newsletter, Nuclear Power Emerging as a Clean AI Data Center Energy Source, data center power demand is expected to grow at an accelerated clip through the end of the decade and beyond, with more powerful GPUs and surging growth in inference two main drivers.

For example, Boston Consulting Group forecasts 45 GW of growth in global data center power demand in just three years, from 82 GW in 2025 to 127 GW by 2028. This represents an acceleration from a 12% CAGR from 2020 to 2023, to a 16% CAGR from 2023 to 2028.

Chart showing acceleration in global data center power demand from 71 GW in 2024 to 127 GW by 2028, driven by generative AI and inference.

On the other hand, McKinsey projects data center capacity will rise ~2.5x to 219 GW by 2030, up from 82 GW in 2025, with AI contributing 70% of that demand. This corresponds to total capacity growth of 137 GW over the next five years, with 112 GW coming from AI.

Goldman Sachs estimated global data center power usage at 55 GW in early 2025, far below BCG’s 82 GW figure. However, GS projects power usage to reach 84 GW in 2027 and increase further to 122 GW by 2030, corresponding to total growth of just 67 GW. However, considering 2025 and 2026 capex spend could support >20 GW of new capacity, this forecast may understate the pace of capacity growth.

This is quite the wide range of projected capacity growth over the next three to five years. But, more importantly, what level of capex does this require? Given the prior calculations for each GW to cost between $30 to $38 billion from the ground up (not accounting for future generation chips), building out 67 to 112 GW by 2030 could necessitate anywhere between $2 trillion to $4.3 trillion in capex over the next five years. McKinsey estimates that spending could reach as much as $6.7 trillion through 2030, which may support up to ~176 GW of new capacity.

At current projections, Big Tech is expected to spend nearly $1.2 trillion on capex from 2024 through 2026, meaning that these projections are well in the realm of possibility based on current spending trends.

Data Center Spending Up 30% YoY

The data center market in the US remains heavily constrained as high levels of demand are outstripping surging supply, even as data center construction reached $40 billion annualized in June, up 30% YoY and a new record. Primary market supply, including key regions such as Northern Virginia, Atlanta and Dallas-Fort Worth, rose 17.6% from H2 2024 and 43.4% YoY to a record 8.16 GW in 1H 2025, per CBRE.  

Also, we see the highest amount of new data center construction in markets offering the lowest build costs. This suggests hyperscalers and other providers are seeking the cheapest paths for new capacity while aiming to bypass long connection wait times with behind-the-meter or off-grid sources, such as on-site gas turbines.

CBRE noted that Northern Virginia, Atlanta, San Antonio and Dallas-Forth Worth were the four markets with the highest amount new construction in the first half of 2025. The four combined for 4.86 GW of total capacity under construction, or nearly 82% of total new construction activity across primary and secondary markets. Interestingly, Seattle, which has one of the longer times to power at ~48 months, versus 36 months for Dallas, has just 9.5 MW under construction, while Chicago, with some of the highest construction costs, only has 244 MW under construction.

More on Location – Latency & Climate are Factors to Consider

There are more nuances about location beyond time to power and construction costs that factor into site selection, attractiveness and ultimately where hyperscalers, neoclouds or even miners choose to build. Two primary factors include latency and climate.

The map below shows data center presence by city, with major markets in dark blue, emerging markets with more abundant power in blue, and secondary markets in gray. Many of the recent headline-grabbing builds can easily be placed into either primary or emerging market locations.

Source: McKinseyMcKinsey

The reason that these new, larger builds are often located in primary and emerging markets is not simply because of strong existing infrastructure or more power availability, but also for proximity to key cities with low-latency. For example, TeraWulf’s New York site offers sub-7ms latency to New York and <8ms to Boston, while Galaxy’s Helios data center in Texas offers <15ms latency to Dallas. Research from Applied Digital found that Stargate’s Abilene site and Northern Virginia both have <80ms latency to major cities across the US, with 100ms feeling ‘instantaneous’ to users.

However, data center vacancies dropped to a record low 1.6%, signaling strong demand from hyperscaler and AI customers, who continue to lock up supply quickly. CBRE added that nearly three-quarters of under-construction capacity of 5.25 GW was already pre-leased by hyperscalers and other providers aiming to secure capacity amid land and power constraints.

Industry Executives See Power as a Primary Constraint

Commentary from executives at hyperscalers, neoclouds, Bitcoin miners, colocation providers and commercial real estate firms all point to power as a key constraint (and consideration) facing the market this year and next:

CBRE said in its H1 2025 Data Center Report that “power availability and infrastructure delivery timelines remained the most decisive factors shaping site selection, leasing activity and pricing across all major U.S. markets.”

Equinix executives stated that “the amount of power we need isn't sitting around on the grid. And so we are planning, and I think most people in the room that are doing data center development are ensuring you have clear line of sight to that power before you take down any land or plan any data center capacity.” Execs also noted that the “reality of it is there [are] constraints in the marketplace, whether that's power availability in the key metros where we're looking to operate…”

A survey by Bloom Energy of 44 hyperscaler and colocation developers found that availability of power was the number one consideration for new site selection, with 84% of respondents placing that in the top 3 with an average rating of 7.8 out of 10.

TeraWulf CEO Paul Prager said he believes there is “a good argument that the market might even be tighter in 2026 than in 2025 given ongoing power constraints and rising hyperscaler CapEx.”

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said that “you see some of the constraints and they kind of exist in multiple places, [but] the single biggest constraint is power.” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said Microsoft needs “power in specific places so that we can either lease or build at the pace at which we want.”

Google Cloud’s Thomas Kurian explained that “as you get these more powerful chips, they also take a lot more power. And power is, in many cases, a short resource.” Arm’s CEO Rene Haas has said that without improvements in efficiency, "by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less."

Types of Data Center Builds, and Where Hyperscalers are Currently Going for Power

There are four common types of hyperscale/AI data center builds that are prevalent in the market: greenfield, build-to-suit, colocation, and brownfield. Each offers a different set of pros and cons as it relates to time to power, customization ability, and cost.

  • Greenfield: Refers to a hyperscaler or CSP owning the land, power and building the data center facility and infrastructure from the ground up. Greenfield builds offer the highest degree of customization ability over every aspect of the facility from power delivery to rack placement, though it comes at a much higher cost and often with the longest timelines to completion due to permitting, site selection, and grid connection.
  • Build-to-suit: Refers to a developer owning the land and securing the power for the facility, and constructing the data center tailored to the needs of the hyperscaler or  CSP buying the capacity, typically via long-term leases. Build-to-suit data centers offer hyperscalers design flexibility without taking on the higher capex needs of a greenfield build.
  • Colocation: Refers to when a hyperscaler or CSP rents capacity (racks, power and cooling infrastructure) from a provider, offering a path to meet quick capacity needs though with no input on facility design.
  • Brownfield: Refers to retrofitting existing infrastructure to meet hyperscaler/AI needs, such as what Bitcoin miners are pursuing with existing mining infrastructure. Brownfield builds are often cheaper and faster than greenfield, but can be limited in terms of power and space by what is present with the existing infrastructure.

Meta’s 5GW Hyperion Campus

Meta is undertaking some of the industry's largest data center projects to support its AI superintelligence quest, with its greenfield Prometheus data center in Ohio expected to be the first 1GW campus to come online in 2026. This is followed by its Hyperion campus in Louisiana, expected to have an initial capacity of 2GW before scaling to 5GW over several years.

Meta’s Hyperion campus is expected to cost $50 billion (~$10 million/MW at full scale), with the social media giant securing $29 billion in financing from PIMCO and Blue Owl to fund the project. The facility’s power requirements are immense, equivalent to approximately 4 million homes.

To power this, Entergy is constructing three new combined-cycle gas turbines coming online in late 2028 to provide an initial 2.3 GW of power, while building new substations and installing new transmission lines. Entergy also may add an additional 2 GW of solar power to support the expansion of the campus towards 5 GW. Meta is said to be covering the $3.2 billion cost of the turbines for the first 15 years, while also pledging to bring 1.5GW of solar and battery power to the grid.  

Amazon Strikes $18B Nuclear Deal with Talen

Amazon made a splash with the largest ever nuclear power PPA in history, purchasing 1.92 GW of nuclear power from Talen Energy to support colocated AWS data centers in Pennsylvania. Under the deal, Talen will ramp to full volume no later than 2032, with the deal extending through 2042 with options for further extension.

The two had initially attempted to go with a ‘behind-the-meter’ deal where Amazon would purchase power directly from Talen and bypass the grid, though FERC had blocked this in late 2024 on concerns about grid reliability and upwards pressure on consumer rates. Under the new $18 billion contract, the colocated power agreement “will transition to a ‘front-of-the-meter’ arrangement after the completion of transmission reconfigurations expected in the spring of 2026,” after which the plant will provide power to PJM’s grid with Talen acting as the supplier to Amazon and PPL responsible for transmission and delivery.

More broadly speaking, Amazon has signed utility-scale solar and wind deals globally, while also supplementing data center sites with on-site solar to augment grid power. Amazon is also said to be exploring fuel cell and gas turbine use at facilities to have more direct control over power.

Microsoft Adds More than 2GW of New Capacity

At the start of 2025, Microsoft disclosed that it was planning to spend roughly $80 billion through the end of its fiscal year in June $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers, to help ease capacity constraints and meet strong demand. In July, CEO Satya Nadella announced that Microsoft “ stood up more than 2 gigawatts of new capacity over the past 12 months alone,” marking a rather aggressive capacity expansion considering the company was said to have ~5GW at its disposal in early 2024.

Microsoft is continuing to build out its data center footprint, announcing a $4 billion additional investment in Wisconsin to house “hundreds of thousands” of Nvidia’s GPUs in a new facility, joining a $3.3 billion data center announced last year. Aligning with Nadella’s comments, Microsoft is also committing to leasing new capacity, with a mega build-to-suit deal with Nebius in New Jersey and a $6.2 billion colocation deal with Nscale and Aker in Norway.

Nebius’ new data center in New Jersey is being constructed by DataOne, who said in March that it would deliver the first phase of the data center in 20 weeks via a behind-the-meter solution. In Norway, Aker says that the new five-year deployment beginning in 2026 is powered by secured grid capacity and 100% renewable energy.

Alphabet Procuring Clean Energy to Support Data Centers

Alphabet is progressing towards its 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy by 2030 target, where each data center is backed 24/7 by clean energy. To support this, Alphabet said in its 2025 Sustainability Report that it procured 8 GW of clean energy primarily via long-term PPAs, that, once operational, “could generate nearly four times more electricity than our incremental load growth from 2023 to 2024.”

These include solar, wind and battery storage, as well as future investments for advanced geothermal or small nuclear reactors. The company said that in 2024, these PPAs brought 2.5 GW of clean energy to the grid to support its data centers.

Oracle Signs Deal with Bloom Energy for On-Site Power, Backs 1.4GW Natural Gas Data Center

Oracle has made a handful of different moves on the power side, signing a deal with Bloom Energy for near-immediate fuel cell deployment while also backing Vantage’s new 1.4 GW gas-powered West Texas data center.

Bloom is working to deploy its fuel cell tech at select Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) data centers in the US, with deployments expected to occur through late July to late October 2025. However, neither Oracle nor Bloom confirmed the scope, size or value of these deployments for on-site power generation.

Oracle is backing Vantage’s upcoming 1.4 GW data center, which is expected to see the first of ten buildings go live in the second half of 2026, built to handle next-gen ultra-high-density racks up to 250kW (versus ~130kW for Blackwell). Per Bloomberg, Oracle is set to spend more than $1 billion annually to power the campus with gas generators rather than waiting for a utility connection.

Crusoe Adds Natural Gas Turbines to Power Data Centers

Crusoe, developer of Stargate’s Abilene data center, has partnered with investment firm Engine No.1 to access 4.5 GW of power from seven of GE Vernova’s natural gas turbines that Engine No. 1 and Chevron’s joint venture purchased earlier this year.

These turbines are expected to bypass the grid and provide power directly to Crusoe’s data center campuses, with energy supply likely in place by 2027. However, Crusoe did not disclose whether this power would be directed to Stargate’s Abilene data center, as it is reportedly in discussions with multiple hyperscalers about where this power may be deployed.

xAI Tapping Gas Turbines for Colossus

xAI is powering its Colossus supercomputer via gas turbines, having more than doubled its number of turbines from 15 to 35 in April this year. The gas turbines have a combined capacity of ~422MW, per the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC), though the group alleges that only 15 of these turbines are permitted. In May, the SELC also noted that xAI was aiming to add between 40 and 90 more turbines for its second Colossus data center in Memphis, raising concerns about pollution and health risks to nearby civilians.

Meeting Future Hyperscaler Power Needs

The most pressing question is, where does the industry go from here for data center power? Future hyperscaler needs continue to grow, with Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Oracle combining for more than $1 trillion in RPO that will (hopefully) convert to revenue, while the broader industry could see anywhere between 67 to 112 GW (or more) of growth through 2030.

Utilities Expect Power Delivery Far Behind Hyperscaler Expectations

There exists a significant disconnect between when hyperscale and colocation developers expect to have site power, and when utilities expect to be able to deliver said power, according to research from Bloom Energy from April. Therefore, connecting new data centers to the grid in quick fashion may not be the most feasible option for hyperscalers looking to deploy gigawatts of capacity quickly, and instead, alternative power sources may be in higher demand.

For example, across the board, developers are expecting to have power delivered by 2027 on average, with most regions seeing expectations as early as late 2025. This is likely driven by consistent strong demand for AI infrastructure services, as new capacity will allow hyperscalers to meet more demand and drive more revenue.

Yet, utilities do not expect to deliver power in most of these primary and secondary markets until 2028, at the earliest, with Austin/San Antonio seeing one of the longest timelines at mid-2029.

Source: Bloom EnergyBloom Energy

This is supported by research from TD Cowen regarding grid connection timelines for new data centers, which span anywhere from 36 months to 48 months in these markets.

Grid connection timelines for new data centers in major markets span anywhere from 36 months to 48 months.

TD estimates connection timelines in Chicago at ~36 months and San Antonio at ~42 months, aligning with responses from Bloom’s survey. There has also been discussion regarding even longer timelines; in 2024, Bloomberg reported that utility Dominion Energy said >100MW data centers in Virginia were facing up to seven year wait times for new connection hookups.  

Primary Market Grids at Risk of Shortfalls

Many primary markets like Northern Virginia, Texas, and Chicago are not necessarily the best equipped to handle surging data center demand, as the power grid in these regions is at elevated risk of supply shortfalls during extreme conditions.

For example, PJM’s grid will be at elevated risk from 2026 onwards, along with ERCOT in Texas, whereas the upper Midwest (MISO) is already at elevated risk. For example, ERCOT projects peak net loads may outpace generation capacity as soon as 2026. Thus, interconnection delays for its grid (and MISO) could stretch to up to 5 years to allow for more generation capacity to come online to avoid further stress.

Source: NERCNERC

This means that building out gigawatts of new capacity in at risk regions may place more emphasis on behind-the-meter deals, on-site generation to minimize strain on the grid, or adding back-up power sources to allow for shifting off the grid when needed.

For example, Oracle is said to be paying ~$1 billion annually for gas generators to power Vantage’s upcoming 1.4 GW data center in West Texas instead of waiting for the grid to be ready, or an extra 2.5% of its operating expenses each year for a single site. Microsoft likely selected Nebius in New Jersey for its ability to deliver hundreds of MW of capacity in ~12 months by going behind-the-meter. xAI stood up its Colossus cluster with 100K GPUs in just 4 months with gas turbines.

Where Does the Power Come From?

There are multiple different ways that hyperscalers, neoclouds and developers can get power to data centers to meet upcoming demand growth over the next few years, each offering its own benefits and drawbacks.

Grid interconnection: This is when data centers connect to the power grid under standard service, providing access to flexible power needs with no additional capex and a wide range of power generation options, including renewables. However, grid interconnection requests are often the longest time to power, ranging from three to seven years for hyperscale data centers in most key markets.

Behind-the-meter: BTM refers to when data centers connect directly to the power source and bypass the grid (meter), which can offer significant time advantage with stand-up times often in the range of several months to a year, along with cost savings from buying power direct versus at retail price. It also gives data centers more control over the power as well as a lower risk for disruption from grid outages. BTM deals can be sourced from multiple different power sources, such as solar, wind or nuclear.

On-site power generation: With on-site power, data centers will install their own power source within the facility grounds, also offering a relatively quicker time to power of a few months to over a year. On-site power can come in many forms, such as Bloom’s fuel cells, natural gas turbines or generators such as those from GE Vernova or Caterpillar, and in the 2030s and beyond, potentially small modular nuclear reactors. Bloom Energy’s survey found that 38% of data centers expect some form of on-site power by 2030, up from 13% last year.

  • Natural gas turbines/generators: NG is a widely available fuel source with a broad pipeline in the US, offering continuous power to data centers. Turbines can come in a range of sizes and be easily deployed, such as Caterpillar subsidiary Solar’s SMT-130 turbines that xAI is using, or GE Vernova’s LM2500XPRESS that Crusoe is using, scaling up to 1GW capacity. Notably, NG turbines could help meet substantial future demand, as GE Vernova is expanding manufacturing in South Carolina to be able to ship 20 GW worth in 2027. Large (>225MW) turbines are reportedly sold out over the next three years.
  • Fuel cells: Similar to NG, fuel cells can be quickly deployed (in as little as three months per Bloom and Oracle’s deal), and provide continuous power for operations. Due to be a relatively newer tech, FCs can come at a higher cost than NG, but without the related emissions. Bloom is planning to double its FC manufacturing capacity to 2GW in 2026 to meet rising on-site power demand.
  • Small modular reactors: SMRs are drawing more interest for future demand needs, as commercialization at scale is not likely until 2030 or beyond. Google is working with Kairos to bring 0.5 GW of SMR capacity online from 2030 through 2035, while Oklo and NuScale are progressing with commercialization plans and a long-term combined ~20 GW backlog.

Retrofitting existing infrastructure, ie. Bitcoin mining: This leverages existing infrastructure with secured power to the building, offering quick delivery times as short as a few weeks to a year, depending on cooling, flooring or other upgrades needed. While this method can offer quick time to power for >100MW sizes with low latency, low electricity costs and cooling expertise, miners are rather capital constrained and may be unable to build out capacity beyond what is currently in their pipelines. Miners have been attracting substantial deal activity, primarily from neoclouds, from an ability to deliver larger chunks of power quickly, with capex costs well below greenfield builds.

Where Hyperscalers May Go for Power Needs

Power is becoming one of the largest constraints for hyperscalers, neoclouds and developers, as surging power consumption with each GPU generation is necessitating new infrastructure to handle these increasingly power dense racks. The industry is racing to deploy hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of AI servers and related hardware before the next refresh cycle to drive growth and maximize ROI.

As a reminder, Big Tech capex implies potentially more than 20 GW of new capacity will come online this year and next, while industry forecasts suggest global demand could rise between 67 to 112 GW by 2030.Traditional grid interconnections face several years’ worth of delays and cannot keep pace with how quickly hyperscalers want to stand up new data centers, putting the emphasis on alternative strategies to secure power.

Gas generators and turbines are emerging as a popular choice and likely will remain popular with tens of GW of manufacturing capacity coming online in 18 months along with readily available fuel. Fuel cells can also help meet near-immediate needs with rapid deployment timelines, though capacity is limited to only a portion of expected demand growth over the long run. Bitcoin miners have also found a role in meeting near-term demand, yet availability capacity is thinning out quickly following multiple long-term deals.  

The I/O Fund is conducting deep-dive research on the energy sector as part of our ongoing focus on AI infrastructure. Our team is evaluating leading energy stocks that could play a pivotal role in powering the next wave of data center and AI growth. The results will be featured in our Top 10 New Ideas report, which will be delivered exclusively to Discovery Members by mid-October. Learn more here. Top 10 New Ideas report, which will be delivered exclusively to Discovery Members by mid-October. Learn more here.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Aehr Test Systems: Optimism Driven by Sonoma Follow-on Orders Despite Soft FY25  

Posted on September 12, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Aehr is a familiar stock to those who have been with the I/O Fund for some time. We’ve held the stock in the past, participating in the company’s former upward trajectory from wafer testing and burn-in systems that stress test devices to avoid early failures.  

While Aehr has struggled as of late, plagued by weakness in EVs weighing heavily on SiC revenue, the company is working to pivot for wafer testing and burn-in of AI processors following last year’s acquisition of Incal. Though Aehr’s stock has witnessed a sharp rally since the summer following a handful of AI orders, growth in FY26 remains pressured by SiC weakness as AI begins to ramp up.  

Background on AEHR: 

The primary market where AEHR saw former success was with electric vehicles (EVs) as Tesla, for example, made the switch from Si-IGBT (silicon-insulated bipolar transistors) to silicon carbide MOSFETs for EV components. By switching to silicon carbide (SiC), Tesla was able to build traction inverters, DC/DC inverters, on-board chargers, fast chargers and energy storage applications that charged faster and offered a longer range of miles. We’ve covered this in the past here. 

As you can imagine, Aehr's stock has struggled over the past two years as EV sales have declined, causing companies like ON Semi (who supplies Tesla) to cut their orders with Aehr.  

Yet, Aehr’s stock has seen a resurgence as of late based on its burn-in solutions for AI processors. Similar to EVs, by stress testing the chips at elevated temperatures and voltages (“burn in”) at the wafer-level, Aehr can lower costs from failures happening at the package or system level. Overall, Aehr’s value proposition is to make sure expensive chips don’t fail when placed under stress. 

Although silicon carbide is becoming a lower percentage of Aehr’s overall revenue as they shift toward AI processors, it’s Aehr’s background with silicon carbide that is becoming useful for AI data centers to perform testing to prevent overheating or other failures at the wafer level. Per the CEO: “Many AI processor companies are talking about billions of dollars of devices a year with the largest AI processor company in the world shipping over $100 billion worth of processors in the data center applications this year alone. Even a 0.1% increase in yield by shifting the burn-in of devices from the system or heterogeneous package level to wafer level is very significant.”  

Testing at the wafer level is attractive due to the complexities of AI hardware, as advanced packages combine multiple GPU or ASIC dies (including dual-die setups) with 8- to 12-high HBM stacks—often totaling dozens of memory dies, all assembled via technologies such as CoWoS. This complexity increases as AI processors reach the reticle limit (maximum area that can be exposed in a single path of lithography equipment). By using chiplets, or smaller dies, to form a larger system, the reticle limit is circumvented for a larger transistor count. This places more emphasis on CoWoS technologies to integrate multiple chiplets onto an interposer. 

When Nvidia attempted to use CoWoS-L packaging, there were reported delays due to “alleged mismatch in the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) among the GPU chiplets, LSI bridges, RDL interposer, and motherboard substrate led to warping and system failure.” 

What that describes is that AI processors and advanced packaging could benefit from earlier testing as these delays of about 3 months in production have led to nearly 6-9 months in delayed timelines for shipping in volume.  

InCal Acquisition and Sonoma Systems 

Aehr announced its acquisition of Incal just over a year ago, buying the AI semiconductor burn-in test solutions manufacturer for total consideration of $21 million, or ~1.75x Incal’s TTM revenue of ~$12 million at the time. While the deal was financially accretive on the top-line, more importantly, it is Incal’s Sonoma Test System that is the primary product driving Aehr’s AI and HPC transition. The high-powered system is used for test and burn-in of leading-edge AI processors/GPUs and networking chips up to 2,000 watts.  

Combined with Aehr’s FOX systems, Aehr is now the only company that can offer wafer-level and package part burn-in for qualification and production of AI processers. Additionally, Aehr can offer prospective customers direct, side-by-side comparisons for testing costs, output, operational costs, and impact on yields, translating to improved results at the manufacturing level and higher revenue and profits from improved yield. 

At the time of the acquisition, Aehr stated that it believed that its manufacturing capacity and R&D resources would help accelerate production and adoption of Incal’s Sonoma Systems in the AI market. Aehr backed this up in Q4 by stating that it has shipped more Sonoma systems post-closing than Incal had in the prior three years.  

In Q4, Aehr disclosed that it has upgraded its facility to be able to manufacture ten to 20 systems at once, if needed, should demand require them to produce multiple systems at once for different customer shipments. Aehr said that it won its first production AI processor customer during the fiscal year and received “initial volume production orders for the multiple Sonoma ultra-high-power system.” This customer, while unnamed, was stated to be a premier data center hyperscaler producing their own AI processors and ramping capacity significantly. 

More orders for the Sonoma systems have been a core factor in Aehr’s recent multi-month rally, as the broader opportunity for wafer-level and package part burn-in for AI is multiples larger than SiC. These orders are instilling a higher degree of confidence in Aehr’s ability to transition to a higher AI mix while navigating the difficulties of SiC.  

Silicon Photonics ICs: Another Upcoming Market 

Another emerging opportunity for Aehr is the silicon photonic IC market, as adoption of optical chip-to-chip and optical networking switches rises with Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSMC and GlobalFoundries all announcing roadmaps featuring optical chip-to-chip communication.  

Silicon photonics are expected to be the only viable choice for rack-to-rack interconnects and across the data center due to the need for high bandwidth and lower power at high speeds. There is also low-loss over long distances with optical fiber, which refers to preserving the original signal, whereas copper sees signal degradation over longer distances. For example, Nvidia stated that by replacing pluggable optics with silicon photonics on the package, it can “deliver 3.5x more power efficiency, 63x greater signal integrity, 10x better network resiliency at scale and 1.3x faster deployment compared with traditional methods.”   

Aehr says it has five to six customers in the SiPho space, some noted above, with one of the customers being an OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) that purchases Aehr’s systems. Management said that they have seen a “significant number of new wafer pack designs from our installed base of systems…that they use for qualification and development work on their FOX wafer level test and burn-in systems.” 

Additionally, Aehr stated that it now is offering a new higher-power system, up to 3,500 watts per wafer, to meet the higher power needs for optical I/O and chip-to-chip communication devices. The new system is available as an upgrade to FOX-NP systems for low-volume production and to the FOX-XP 9-wafer system for higher-volume production. 

However, while SiPho is emerging as an entirely new market to capture, the long-term opportunity remains rather limited, with management forecasting SiPho’s opportunity to be smaller than SiC by the end of the decade. 

Recent AI Orders Rejuvenate Shares with 63% Rally 

On July 22nd, Aehr shared a press release in which it announced orders for 8 Sonoma systems from its lead production AI-processor hyperscale customer, with delivery expected to occur over the next 2-3 quarters. On August 26th, an additional press releaseadditional press release announced a follow-on order for 6 more Sonoma systems from the same hyperscaler, with delivery scheduled across the next 2 quarters (likely contributing to FY26 H1).  

This concurred with a paid evaluation of Aehr’s Fox-XP systems from a leading AI processor supplier, announced on August 25. Aehr said this 3-6 month paid evaluation features a custom WaferPak high-power wafer contactor and a production wafer-level burn-in test program development. Management noted that while they cannot guarantee a final purchase, they believe this marks the first step toward adoption of its WLBI solutions as an alternative to this customer’s production burn-in done in later manufacturing. They also believe that a successful evaluation phase could quickly transfer into high-volume production, which they see as a significant growth opportunity. Notably, Aehr has already proven to some degree that its FOX-XP system is viable for high-volume test and burn-in for AI processors, having received a >$10 million order in December 2024 from a leading AI accelerator company. 

Tracking these AI orders and related revenue is important as AI is now a much larger portion of Aehr’s revenue, both from the acquisition of Incal and the SiC slowdown. For example, AI accounted for 0% of Aehr’s revenue in FY24, but more than 35% in FY25, and these orders suggest AI’s contribution could increase further in FY26 as deliveries occur. 

Despite weak financial results reported in FY25, 14 Sonoma systems ordered over a 2-month span by a single customer helps validate the efficacy of the tech. While underwhelmed with the recently reported results discussed further below, investors have now turned optimistic due to these repeat orders & the potential for revenue growth. 

2026 Revenue Estimates Getting Crushed 

This flurry of orders has rejuvenated Aehr’s stock with shares rising 63% since the first order announcement in July, signaling increased optimism in Aehr’s ability to capture more AI-related growth as the silicon carbide market lags. This compares to less than a 2% gain for the Nasdaq 100 over the same period. 

The big question here for Aehr and for investors likely hinges on one key facet: can these new AI orders help drive a meaningful inflection in revenue to make this run sustainable. Since April, Aehr’s valuation has tripled, and shares no longer appear cheap considering FY26 revenue estimates have gotten crushed even after a weak FY25.  

For FY26, revenue estimates have plunged from $92 million in Oct 2024 to $73 million in April 2025 and now barely $61 million in August. This would correspond to minimal 4% YoY growth after a challenging FY25 where revenue declined nearly (11%) YoY. It’s important to note that visibility on Aehr’s future growth can be very limited with minimal analyst coverage, so estimates can change quickly, such as if Aehr secures a large order. 

What would be crucial to see here is if these recent AI orders can help drive revenue for the year higher, or if SiC headwinds will weigh on growth. SiC had accounted for >90% of revenue in FY24, though it declined sharply to <40% in FY25, or a decline of more than (56%) YoY.  Keep in mind that Aehr also warned that SiC may not experience order growth in fiscal 2026 as “customer forecasts for this market are back-half loaded, with stronger growth expected in our fiscal 2027.”  

Timing Issues Impact Q4 Revenue, Yet Rebound is Prolonged 

Fiscal 2025 revenue declined (10.9%) YoY to $59.0 million, versus FY24 revenue of $66.2 million, reflecting a continued SiC slowdown and tougher prior-year comps, with Q4’24 being a very strong quarter due to elevated EV chip demand. Revenue declines in Systems (-9% YoY) and Contractors (-18% YoY) were partially offset by increase in Services +37% YoY as Incal acquisition contributed $18.6M to FY25 post close, up more than 50% YoY. While SiC / EV revenue weakened, early signs of diversifications towards AI, HDD, services, and US mix helped dampen the decline.  

Q4’25 was also tough with revenue of $14.1 million, a (23%) decline against Q3’25 revenue of $18.3M. Year over year figures reflect the same softness, a 15.1% decline of $2.5M YoY from Q4’24 revenue of $16.6M. Management noted the YoY decrease was “primarily due to a delayed shipment of a FOX-CP system that was forecasted to be shipped to our hard disk drive customer. Because of tariff-related uncertainties, probers sourced from Asia to support the FOX-CP system were delayed. We now expect to complete this shipment in our current quarter, Q1 of fiscal 2026.”  

Beyond this timing issue, product-line trends provide additional insight into the revenue composition. WaferPak revenues were $4.2 million and accounted for 30% of Q4 revenue, underscoring Aehr’s ongoing pivot toward packaged-part burn-in. Package part burn-in now represents nearly half of quarterly revenue, partially offsetting legacy wafer-level volatility.: “Sonoma, Tahoe and ACO package part burn-in systems continue to contribute strongly, accounting for 44% of our fourth quarter revenue. .” The takeaway here Is that Q4's revenue contraction reflects end-market and timing headwinds, not necessarily competitive erosion – positioning Aehr for potential rebound as deferred shipments clear and packaged-part momentum continues. 

As we look out to FY26, analysts see Q1 revenue of $11.46 million, a decline of both (20%) QoQ and (16%) YoY. For Q2, analysts see revenue of $14.4 million, signaling a pick up to 26% QoQ but just 7% YoY. Coming into the year, analysts originally expected 30% YoY growth for FY26. That number has now fizzled down to a measly 4%.  Management would argue that a strong pipeline in AI and memory could make FY26 a different story. 

Geographically, Aehr was able to generate YoY revenue growth in Q4’25 from the US ($4.1 million vs $3.8 million) and Europe ($1.3 million versus $0.9 million). Unfortunately, the sharp decline in Asia revenue ($8.7 million vs $12.9 million) significantly offset any of these incremental improvements. Management noted that the Asia softness was driven by tariff-related uncertainties (e.g. sourcing disruption in Asia) causing delayed shipment of FOX-CP System, although shipment is now expected to occur in Q1’26.  

Key Segments

Contractors Revenue: 

  • Q4’25 vs Q3’25 (QoQ): $7.35 million vs $9.91 million (Q3’25) represents a (25.8%) decline  
  • Q4 FY25 vs Q4 FY24 (YoY): $7.35 million vs $9.80 million represents a (25%) decline  
  • FY25 vs FY24 (YoY): $30.8 million vs $37.5 million (FY24) represents a (17.9%) decline 

Contractors revenue was the most cyclical and the biggest drag on QoQ and YoY performance. Contractors scale with system utilization – less wafers going through Aehr equaling lower contractor demand.  

Systems Revenue: 

  • Q4’25 vs Q3’25 (QoQ): $4.78 million vs $6.28 million (Q3’25) represents a (23.9%) decline  
  • Q4 FY25 vs Q4 FY24 (YoY): $4.78 million vs $4.96 million (Q4’24) represents a (3.6%) decline 
  • FY25 vs FY24 (YoY): $22.0 million vs $24.2 million (FY24) represents a (9.1%) decline. 

Q4 systems shipments were lighter than Q3 which reflects timing of customer evaluations and slower follow-on orders from SiC. System revenue will be lumpy and fluctuate quarter to quarter, with the full year decline tied to fewer installs in the Asia/ EV end market. 

Services Revenue 

  • Q4’25 vs Q3’25 (QoQ): $1.96 million vs $2.08 million (Q3’25) represents a (5.8%) decline. 
  • Q4 FY25 vs Q4 FY24 (YoY): $1.96 million vs $1.84 million (Q4’24) represents a 6.5% increase.  
  • FY25 vs FY24 (YoY): $6.14 million vs $4.49 million (FY24) represents a 36.8% increase.  

Service revenues are contract-driven and therefore recurring and less volatile in nature. While down QoQ, the slight growth in YoY metrics noted above shows stickiness with existing customer base and early AI evaluation work. While systems and contractor revenue swings, look for services revenue to act as a stabilizer. 

Margins Show Sharp YoY Contraction 

Q4’25 Adjusted Gross Profit came in at $4.89 million, reflecting an adjusted GM of 34.7%, down 42.7% reported in Q3’25. YoY figures reflect even more weakness, down significantly from 51.5% reported in Q4’24. Q4’25 gross margin marks the 3rd sequential quarter of margin degradation.  

Management noted margin softness in the quarter was partially driven “high manufacturing overhead due to under absorption as our manufacturing capacity utilization was lower during the renovation of our Fremont site and the consolidation of inventory from the Incal facility.” In simpler terms, certain factory costs can either be (i) expensed right away as period costs in the P&L, or (ii) be capitalized into inventory and only hit the P&L when that inventory is sold. When production runs at normal levels, more of those costs are absorbed into inventory. But when volumes fall (like during down-time or site renovations), fewer costs are absorbed into product, meaning a bigger share flows straight to expense in the current quarter – reducing margins. 

FY2025 Adjusted Gross Profit was $23.9 million versus FY2025 Gross Profit of $32.5 million, down (26.4%), reflecting a margin of ~40.6% (down ~8.5% YoY). Compared to FY2024, the margin compression & overall decline in gross profit can be attributed to: (1) volume pressure (2) inventory step-up amortization related to Incal acquisition and (3) mix shift toward lower-margin packaged part-systems. Until the backlog can convert from orders to shipments and contribute to acceleration in top line growth, expect a continued trend of lack-luster margin performance. 

Q4’25 Adjusted Operating loss was ($0.55 million), reflecting a –3.9% operating margin. The QoQ decline from 8.2% GM in Q3’25 is due to the gross margin squeeze mentioned above in combination with ~$0.86M in restructuring charges. The YoY decline from 20.60% is attributed to a handful of factors: prior-year was profitable, the current year includes Incal integration, lower gross profit, and higher R&D pend for AI systems. 

FY25 Adjusted Operating Loss of ($4.3M) declined substantially YoY, down $15.8M from $10.1M reported in FY24. This was also driven by the lower gross profit, higher R&D / SG&A spend tied to AI systems and Incal acquisition integration costs mentioned above. Operating leverage turned negative as opex remained relatively flat while revenue declined.  

EPS Back to Negative in Q4

Q4’25 Net Income of ($0.25 million), down from $1.9 million in Q3’25 and $24.7 million in Q4’24. Q4 net margin came in at (1.8%), down significantly from the 10.8% reported in Q3. The swing downward should not be considered a seasonal dip as it reflects timing issues and margin compression. YoY comps are skewed by the $20M one-time tax benefit but reflect the same weakness. In future quarters, watch for these margins to recover with volumes – if they don’t that signals additional issues beyond timing noise.  

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

Cash & Equivalents: $24.5M, Down $4.9M or ~16.6% QoQ; Down -$24.6M or –50% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the decline is driven by cash usage from negative OCF (-$7.4M) and higher capitalized expenditures. Q4 inventory build flattened while receivables and order timing consumed cash. On an annual basis, this decline is driven mainly by cumulative FCF burn in FY25 of -$12.4M along with Incal acquisition related spend. The takeaway here is that the Company has plenty of runway with ~$25M in cash and little debt. A re-acceleration in revenue could help the company avoid having to tap into its $100M shelf.  

Inventory: $42.0M, Modest QoQ decrease (–0.8%), up ~12% YoY.  Inventory build continued for anticipated new orders (AI, HDD, NAND) even while SiC slowed. We will continue to monitor these levels to understand how the new systems are ramping. If SiC continues to slow which could cause inventory to become excess / obsolete.    

Bookings for Q4 were $11.1M, less than half of Q3’s $24.1M. Backlog slipped to Q4 were $15.2M compared to $18.2M in PQ. With $14.1M in revenues for Q4, bookings did not fully cover sales, requiring backlog drawdown to support revenue. A disappointing performance compared to Q3 where bookings of $24.1M comfortably exceeded revenue of $18.3M. Management noted “while there was only a small amount of revenue in the fiscal year from wafer level burn-in in Hard Disk Drive components, about 10% of our order bookings for FY25 came from this new market, all of which we expect to ship and generate revenue from during this fiscal year now, '26.” 

Effective Backlog (to include bookings received after quarter-end) of $16.3 million.  

Net Working Capital: $73.1 million (–3.3% QoQ; –16.3% YoY). The decline in net working capital is linked to AR & AP, as order timing and delayed FOX-CP shipment affect both cash collection and payables alignment.  

Debt: None, aside from lease obligations (ST $0.91 million; LT $9.92 million).  

Operating Cash Flow: -$7.4M (vs. +$1.2M prior); margin: –16.3%. This is largely driven by weak earnings performance but also compounded by the consumption of working capital. Cash burn levels remain manageable when compared to liquidity, signaling that AEHR doesn’t appear to be in near-term distress.   

CapEx: $5.0M (vs. $0.75M) is elevated due to Incal integration and capacity expansion. 

Free Cash Flow: –$12.4M (vs. +$1.0M); FCF margin: –21.0%. These stats mentioned above reflect poor financial performance in a transitional year that included high integration costs. An improvement in future cash generation could be driven by (1) shipment of the delayed FOX-CP or (2) a ramp in AI/HDD/NAND.  

Earnings Q&A:  

AI Market is 3-5X Larger than SiC/EV Market for Aehr 

The flurry of orders and resurgence of optimism tied to a handful of Sonoma orders is underpinned by the fact that the AI market is 3x to 5x larger than SiC, where strong growth in 2021 drove a >10x increase in Aehr’s stock within the year. Thus, the relative size of the AI opportunity theoretically could open the door to more explosive growth in the future as capex on test and burn equipment is attached to a much larger device base with strong forward growth prospects.  

Aehr laid out a tentative discussion on the TAM that they believe they have in AI processors versus SiC: 

“The original silicon carbide models that took a look at, say, the target applications for silicon carbide, which were primarily the electric vehicles, how many EVs, how many components would be in it, et cetera, et cetera, you could come up with how many wafer starts that would require in, say, 2030. And I know that you had put some models together at that time. There were about 4 million wafer starts. We looked at 12-hour burn-in time, single insertion with our systems. Long story short, we saw that the total market was somewhere 300, 350 of our systems with ASPs about $4 million a piece or something like that.” 

Back of the napkin math here places SiC’s 2030 modeled TAM at $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. For AI, management said that by 2030, wafer starts may actually end up around half that of SiC, but because these are 300mm wafers, up to 20,000 watts of power, they require multiple touchdowns as testing is only done at 3,000 to 4,000 watts at a time. This is where management sees the market at 3x to 5x SiC, or a $3.6 billion to $7 billion TAM.  

Potential For More Incoming Orders: 

As we have seen with the recent orders in August, the potential for more intra-quarter orders is a key factor in moving Aehr’s stock. Aehr does have the paid evaluation that they expect to complete over the next one to two quarters, with the possibility of transitioning to high-volume production afterwards; management hinted in Q4’s call that the decision could be made within six months with orders thereafter. They did not quantify potential sizing, but expect it to be a “significant opportunity” should it reach high-volume production as this customer’s capacity requirements are significant.  

Outside of this, management stated in the call that they do expect more evaluation phases with other AI companies this year, allowing them to capture a “meaningful share” of the AI processor burn-in market with its FOX systems and WaferPak contactors. 

Analysts also asked about Aehr’s first AI customer, understood to be behind the December 2024 $10 million order: 

Larry Edward Chlebina 

Gayn, that first AI customer at the OSAT, so they're — are you under the belief that they're really pleased with it? And do you expect more orders from them in the near future? 

Gayn Erickson 

Yes to both of those. Wait, you said near future. I want to be careful of setting any time lines, but I'll go out and say we expect more — just more this year, though. 

Larry Edward Chlebina 

And then now you have another AI customer in evaluation. So that's the second one for wafer level burn-in. And then you have a third one that's going after the production in the package part burn-in. Are they 3 distinct AI customers? Or are they… 

Gayn Erickson 

Yes, totally different. 

Update on Customers & Concentration Easing 

Aehr also provided some insight into current and prospective customers and customer concentration, noting that expansion into new markets is leading to customer concentration easing.  

Christian David Schwab  

Gayn, I've received a lot of questions regarding your most recent slide in your investor deck with a lot of well-known marquee names. And I'm just — is that — should investors think of that list as a list of current and previous customers? Or does it include maybe names of prospective customers such as new AI customers that you're working with or new silicon photonics customers, et cetera? How should we be thinking about that slide?  

Gayn Erickson  

So we're — yes, we're — the new SEC rules do not require you to name it. So unless we already have prior arranged agreements with the customers to name them, we're no longer doing that. Prior to that SEC rule, we could name them even if the customers objected, if you will, but we're not doing that now. 

Below is Aehr’s slide naming its global customers, which it says is a partial list – some of the top names include Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Marvell & Inphi, Samsung, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm.  

For customer concentration, Aehr said that it now has three companies representing >10% of revenue for FY25, with two of these customers “representing new markets and customers.  

Tariff Uncertainty Still Lingering 

Aehr has been fairly open about the effects of recent fluctuating tariff policy on results, providing commentary on tariff-impacted order timing. Aehr also temporarily withdrew its guidance as of Q3 and has not yet reinstated the figure.  

In Q4’s call, Aehr said that in April they were primarily concerned with the “potential secondary impacts on our current and prospective customers as well as the possibility of pauses or delays in customer orders, shipments or supply chain deliveries.” Aehr also said that they “know it must be a broken record to hear terms like uncertainty around tariffs on many company earnings calls, but this is still the case.” 

Management followed this up by saying that they still seeing tariff-related impacts on specific order timing, particularly for fiscal Q1. Additionally, there was more clarity on the delayed FOX-CP shipment to its Japanese HDD customer. Aehr had expected to receive a high-power prober part shipment for its FOX-CP systems by the end of May, yet the first shipment was not received until early July, delaying delivery.  

Conclusion 

Aehr’s AI pivot has renewed optimism in the stock, with AI now contributing 35% of revenue for FY25 with more orders suggesting growth in AI can continue. However, Aehr’s primary market in SiC remains weak, and management has noted that SiC may not grow in FY26, with revenue estimates plunging over the past few months as a result.  

Overall, the AI processor market opens the door to a much larger TAM for Aehr’s systems compared to SiC, with management believing it to be 3x to 5x larger by 2030. Should Aehr successfully pivot to AI processor test and burn-in, and continue to scale capacity, production and orders, it can pave the way for stronger revenue growth in FY27 and beyond.

Every Thursday at 4:30 pm Eastern, the I/O Fund team holds a webinar for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock and crypto entries and exits. Beth Kindig offers weekly deep dives including lesser-known cryptocurrencies and AI stocks, plus the team offers trade alerts. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. To receive $100 off our Advanced tier use ADVANCED100 or click here and email your request to upgrade.4:30 pm Eastern, the I/O Fund team holds a webinar for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock and crypto entries and exits. Beth Kindig offers weekly deep dives including lesser-known cryptocurrencies and AI stocks, plus the team offers trade alerts. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. To receive $100 off our Advanced tier use ADVANCED100 or click hereclick here and email your request to upgrade.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Nebius: Mega Microsoft Deal, 5x Growth in Power Fueling AI Cloud Hypergrowth, But High Risk Remains

Posted on September 12, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

The trend toward neoclouds is a high risk/high reward opportunity for investors. Nebius is similar to CoreWeave, dubbing itself as AI native cloud infrastructure, which means the infrastructure was built specifically for AI workloads with architectures built on bare metal servers instead of hypervisor layers, for example. As pointed out in our CoreWeave analysis, this along with a few other optimizations can result in significantly faster training.

Nebius offers an Nvidia-optimized cloud platform for teams that need to adjust compute resources, want high-performance storage and an easy-to-use AI environment yet do not want to manage the infrastructure or AI operations.

The stock surged earlier this month off the announcement of a mega deal with Microsoft worth $19.4 billion. This deal signals just how supply constrained the market is, given Microsoft is willing to partner with a neocloud to scale quickly.

Even with the big moves in neocloud stocks we’ve seen recently, they remain high risk and they are not in the “quality” bucket given their financials are messy. Nebius is even more complicated than CoreWeave given they also own an autonomous driving division, among other investments, and was formally the company Yandex. The Russian-owned Yandex was a high-profile internet search company (the Google or Baidu of Russia), which saw its stock halted after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Given Nebius’ roots are from Yandex, one might question if Nebius is truly AI-native as some of the Finnish data center in Europe was built in 2014. However, that is also where one of Nebius’ strength lies, which is the company offers European data centers which helps a company like Microsoft to expand quickly overseas.

To serve the AI-native market, Nebius has been building out colocation sites to increase capacity and lower latency for the incoming inference market. Companies like Cloudflare and Shopify are early customers, both of which need to power inference at the edge. The company is also expanding beyond Europe with data center expansions in New Jersey and Kansas.

With that said, Nebius is a high-risk stock given its success depends on how much capital the company can raise, and the likelihood it remains in CoreWeave’s shadow is high. Regardless of how Nebius competes with CoreWeave, it remains an AI bubble stock as the company has to hope the stock prices goes up to raise cash, which will dilute shareholders (or raise debt). It’s a vicious cycle as during any months/quarters that AI stocks are soft, Nebius stock will carry outsized execution risk.

Ultimately, we are stepping away from the stock. While it’s clear that Nebius could do well in an AI-driven market and the stock could extend rapidly, we want to be prudent about what will hold up should we see a softer AI narrative. We like other names in our portfolio better in terms of participating in the upside while protecting to the downside for when we do get the inevitable tech selloff.

Up to $19.4 Billion Deal with Microsoft, More to Come?

Last week, Nebius signed a mega deal with Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion through 2031, for capacity at its new AI data center in New Jersey. The announcement sent Nebius shares up 50%, with the contract value being worth more than the company’s $15.5 billion market cap at the time of announcement.

Nebius outlined that it plans to bring GPUs online in several tranches, with initial capacity later in 2025 and ramping throughout 2026. At present, the deal is worth $17.4 billion, with Microsoft having the ability to sign a $2 billion extension should it determine a need for additional GPU services or capacity. Nebius expects the deal will help it greatly accelerate AI cloud growth in 2026 and beyond.

The deal does have a few major contingencies, mainly that Microsoft has the ability to cancel the contract if Nebius fails to meet agreed delivery dates and if it cannot provide alternative capacity to make up for the delay. It’s likely that Nebius will prioritize the development of the New Jersey data center above all else in the near-term to ensure it remains in good standing with Microsoft as the deal offers immense revenue upside.

Unlike miners, who already have pre-built infrastructure ready for retrofitting, this is a build-to-suit development, meaning Nebius is financing the buildout of the infrastructure, racks and related equipment and partnering with a developer who owns the land and power (in this case DataOne).

Nebius expects to fund the capex for this data center with a combination of cash flow from the deal and debt secured against the contract, while noting that additional financing options may be pursued to “enable significantly faster growth than originally planned.” The latter has already panned out, with Nebius raising $3.75 billion in a combined debt & share sale. This is important as the terms of the deal do not indicate upfront prepay, with deferred revenue only $19.3 million, suggesting Nebius will likely have to deliver the first tranche of power before payments commence.

Breaking this down, the $17.4 billion deal is worth approximately $3.48 billion in average annual revenue over the five-year period, or scaling to the several billion in revenue by 2031. Overall revenue estimates for 2028 through 2030 have been raised by $2 billion to $4 billion following the announcement, implying the ramp will be felt primarily in the later stages of the deal.

While the multi-billion dollar upside is certainly a positive, CEO and founder Arkady Volozh hinted that subsequent deals like this are possible: “In addition to our core business, we expect to secure significant long-term committed contracts with leading AI labs and big tech companies. I’m happy to announce the first of these contracts, and I believe there are more to come.”

Considering the New Jersey data center has 300MW capacity with potential expansion to 400MW, Nebius theoretically can support more deals of this size with 1GW+ in its pipeline and aggressive growth plans.

Targeting 5x Growth in Power by End of 2026

Nebius is aggressively ramping up its capacity and has outlined a plan to increase its connected power by ~5x by the end of next year, though it is still targeting 100MW of active power by the end of this year.

This quarter, Nebius stated that it is aiming to have 220MW of connected power by the end of the year, which they define as either currently active or that can be activated upon GPU installation. Management maintained its guidance for >100MW of this 220MW to be active by year-end, though this may be revised higher to account for expedited expansion for Microsoft’s deal.

This includes recent expansion at multiple data center campuses and new campuses soon to be operational:

  • In Finland, Nebius is currently tripling its capacity to 75MW, which can host up to 60K GPUs.
  • In New Jersey, Nebius has 300MW under construction, with the first ~100MW to be connected this year; some reports suggest the site can expand to 400MW. Considering this is the site powering the Microsoft deal, it’s likely Nebius will prioritize power connections on an accelerated rate here.
  • Nebius’ Kansas City, Missouri data center went live in Q1 2025, featuring primarily H200 GPUs, and will deploy Blackwell GPUs through year end. The first phase can expand up to 40MW and host 35K GPUs.
  • Nebius is launching its first UK data center in Q4 2025, expected to feature 4,000 Blackwell Ultra GPUs.
  • Nebius is also launching a new site in Israel, joining its global footprint with other operational data centers in Paris and Iceland.

Overall, Nebius is in the process of securing more than 1GW of power by year-end 2026, or nearly 5x growth from 2025’s current guidance for connected power. This includes two new greenfield sites in the US where Nebius is in advanced discussions; management prefers greenfield construction as they can achieve TCOs around 20% below market averages by controlling building design, power flow, and server design and installation.

This growth in power supports Nebius’ medium-term expectations for scaling its fleet, from ~20K in 2024 to 60K in 2025 to 240K over the next few years. This paves the way for Nebius to continue smoothly along its hypergrowth phase, progress towards its medium-term revenue target of ‘several billions’ and support more hyperscaler deals.

To put this in perspective, primary neocloud rival CoreWeave disclosed at the end of 2024 that it had more than 250,000 GPUs installed across a 360MW active power footprint. Now, CoreWeave has 470MW of active power, and 2.2GW of total power contracted with its acquisition of Core Scientific. At its current 470MW active power size, CoreWeave is nearing a $5 billion annual revenue run rate.

For a deeper look at Core Scientific and CoreWeave, read more here: CoreWeave: AI Infrastructure Built for the Next Decade; Upside Down Business Model and Core Scientific: Expects 250MW of Billable Capacity to CoreWeave by Year-End.CoreWeave: AI Infrastructure Built for the Next Decade; Upside Down Business Model and Core Scientific: Expects 250MW of Billable Capacity to CoreWeave by Year-End.

$3.75 Billion Capital Raise to Support New Growth

The day following the Microsoft deal announcement, Nebius priced a $2.75 billion convertible debt raise to support future growth, upsized from $2 billion and combined with a $1 billion share offering at $92.50. It also builds upon a recent $1 billion convertible debt raise from June, allowing Nebius to pursue rapid capacity expansion, high-quality data center site procurement and more GPU purchases.

Considering that Nebius is not as highly leveraged with debt as CoreWeave, it enjoyed significantly better terms for this raise than the other neocloud.

  • Nebius priced $1.375 billion in 1.0% notes due 2030, and $1.375 billion in 2.75% notes due 2032, with effective conversion prices of $159.56/share.
  • For comparison, CoreWeave recently closed a 9.0% $1.75 billion note in July and a 9.25% $2 billion note in May.

These attractive low coupon notes save Nebius nearly $300 million annually in debt interest payments versus CoreWeave’s recent raises, freeing up more cash for expansion or capex. However, ~$50 million in interest is nearly half of Nebius’ current quarterly revenue, adding some strain on margins though this will ease as revenue ramps.

What raises the risk for Nebius is a constant need for more capacity – it is already outpaced by CoreWeave, and simply securing >1GW of power is not nearly enough to fuel consistent growth considering some Bitcoin miners have more in their pipeline.

Capacity at scale is not cheap – for a similar 300MW data center like the New Jersey site, total development costs would likely be in the range of $8 billion to $10 billion, assuming greenfield construction costs of $9 million to $13 million per MW, and hardware costs of $18 million to $20 million per MW. Thus, adding an additional 1GW sometime in the future to take total power to 2GW (still below CoreWeave’s 2.2GW contracted), could cost an additional $20 billion.

Vertical Integration, Custom Servers, Competitive Pricing Provide an Edge

Considering CoreWeave’s broadening presence securing capacity deals with multiple Bitcoin miners, it’s important to touch upon what separates Nebius from its neocloud rival, why it may be positioned to secure future large-scale deals and extend its hypergrowth phase.

According to Nebius, the company has a few key advantages that provide it an edge when it comes to AI infrastructure and GPU rental prices:

  • In-house custom designed servers offer a lower TCO, up to 20% lower versus other cloud providers
  • Power usage effectiveness (PUE) near industry lead, leading to increased rack density per MW
  • Data center ownership cuts out expensive colocation fees, allowing for competitive GPU rental pricing while maintaining margins
  • Vertically integrated with a full-stack, proprietary AI cloud purpose-built for AI workloads

Bringing server design in-house and bypassing traditional server OEMs such as Dell and Super Micro gives Nebius control over component purchasing and rack design, helping maximize rack efficiency and minimize costs. For example, Nebius says that average power consumption for its in-house servers can be up to 20% lower versus comparable off-the-shelf servers, at 8.2 kw versus 10 kw for a fully configured 8-GPU HGX H100 server. Not only does this lower initial hardware costs to stand up data centers, but also reduces long-term power costs from lower power consumption.

Nebius also claims to offer industry-leading power-usage effectiveness of its servers, essentially on par with Azure and slightly ahead of Oracle Cloud. To understand why this is important, let’s break down PUE first: it is a ratio that compares total facility power to core IT load. For example, a 500 MW facility that can hold 400 MW of IT load (servers, cooling infra, etc.), would have a PUE of 1.25, while a 500 MW facility that can hold 450 would have a PUE of 1.11.

Lower PUE is important as it means data centers can deliver more compute per watt, with less power lost to overhead. Considering electricity is the largest operating expense for data centers, providers that can offer the lowest PUEs are more attractive as this translates into significant savings.

For example, assuming 400MW of core IT load operating in two data centers with PUE of 1.25 and 1.11, the first data center will have total power consumption of 500MW and the second 444MW. Assuming continuous operation, the lower PUE data center will consume 650,000 MWh less electricity annual, which translates to more than $90 million in annual savings at $0.14/kWh.

Nebius touts a data center power usage effectiveness ratio near industry leaders.

Source: NebiusNebius

Additionally, Nebius is prioritizing ownership of its data centers, which eliminates colocation fees, often up to 30% of total costs. Combining this with in-house designed servers and low PUE, Nebius can enjoy 20% to 25% cheaper operating costs per GPU, allowing them to offer competitive rental pricing. SemiAnalysis says that Nebius can offer “the lowest absolute price and the best terms for short to medium-term rents.”

Nebius currently offers H100 GPUs for as little as $2.00 per GPU hour with at least a three-month commitment ($2.95 per GPU hour without), a ~7% discount to the industry average at $2.15 per GPU hour, according to Silicon Data. This also compares to $2.49-$3.29 per GPU hour at Lambda and ~$6.16 per GPU hour for CoreWeave (based on $49.24 for an 8-GPU instance).

For the HGX H200, Nebius is offering rentals at $3.50 per GPU hour, a ~44% discount to CoreWeave at $6.31 per GPU, based on a $50.44 8-GPU instance price. For Blackwell GPUs, Nebius is renting HGX B200 chips at $5.50 per GPU hour, a slight premium to Lambda’s $4.99 for the B200 and a discount to CoreWeave’s $8.60 (based on a $68.80 price per 8-GPU instance).

However, it cannot be ignored that some of this pricing dynamic may stem from Nebius’ current scale, a fraction of CoreWeave’s size, and that it may cater more towards AI startups rather than larger enterprise customers who may require cluster sizes well beyond what Nebius can offer.

Nebius may also be in a tight position to demand premium pricing as bootstrapped AI startups may simply choose whatever cloud provider can offer GPU access at an affordable price, and offering competitive pricing or discounted rates can drive customer acquisition. Additionally, CoreWeave’s larger GPU fleet likely means it can demand premium pricing and long-term contracts with anchor tenants such as OpenAI, whereas Nebius is not yet at the scale to do the same beyond its Microsoft deal.

In the longer term, Nebius believes that its vertical integration with a full stack of AI services will help broaden its customer base, increase platform stickiness and capture higher margin revenue and services. Nebius offers a proprietary cloud platform with managed MLops services, low downtime and high cost efficiency, combined with its inferencing platform AI Studio. With AI Studio, Nebius says it can offer up to 3x token savings with low latency, and up to 4.5x faster time to token versus other competitors in Europe.

Nebius also reported its first MLPerf Benchmark results, training Meta’s Llama 3.1-405B model in 124.5 minutes with 1,024 Hopper GPUs, nearly double the speed of its 512 GPU result of 244.6 minutes. Nebius says that the result validated its platform’s ability to deliver bare-metal comparable performance while in the cloud.

Blackwell Ultras Drive 14% Increase in Annualized Run Rate Guidance, Not Including Microsoft Deal

In Q2, Nebius boosted its annualized run rate guidance by 14%, supported by its data center expansion, more power coming online in 2H and the rollout of more Blackwell and soon Blackwell Ultra GPUs. To note, the increased ARR guidance preceded the Microsoft deal, although it may be unlikely that ARR guidance will be raised much this year considering that capacity roll-out is more geared towards 2026.

Q2 ARR rose ~73% QoQ and 438% YoY to $439 million, marking a significant two-quarter expansion from $90 million in Q4. Nebius is targeting ARR to more than double over the next two quarters, raising its guidance to $900 million to $1.1 billion, up from its prior view for $750 million to $1 billion.

Nebius explained that the “increase in our ARR guidance reflects the strong demand we are seeing and the expected delivery of additional GPU capacity later this year, particularly the Blackwell Ultras. Because much of this capacity will come online by the end of the year, the impact will show up more in ARR than within the year’s revenue.” Much of the ARR growth is likely to be weighted towards Q4, considering the majority of GPU installations will take place that quarter, such as the ~4,000 Blackwell Ultras in the UK.

Nebius raised guidance for ARR to reach $900 million to $1.1 billion by the end of 2025

Nebius remains confident in reaching this ARR target, noting that a majority of the guidance is already under contract, while additionally capacity sells quickly upon coming online, adding an extra level of confidence.

Solidly in Multi-Year Hypergrowth Phase

Nebius is one of the more unique names in the AI universe as one of the few, if not only, AI-focused stock to have multiple years of triple-digit revenue growth ahead. Though the ARR guidance only extends two quarters ahead, it is a leading indicator of the upcoming hypergrowth phase Nebius is expected to see.

Nebius had already laid out expectations for a meaningful acceleration next year prior to the Microsoft deal, based on timing of capacity ramp in Q4 2025 and throughout 2026. The recent deal with Microsoft is extending this acceleration, with revenue revised more than $3 billion higher by 2029, or 24% to 65% above prior expectations.

Prior to the Microsoft deal, Nebius was expected to surpass $5 billion in annual revenue in 2029, doubling from $2.5 billion in 2027. After the deal, revenue estimates have been raised 24% to $3.1 billion in 2027, and 65% higher to $8.44 billion by 2029.

Following the Microsoft deal, annual revenue estimates have been raised 24% to $3.1 billion in 2027, and 65% higher to $8.44 billion by 2029.

In terms of YoY growth, Nebius is now expected to see three consecutive years of triple digit growth from FY25 through FY27, with the possibility that additional hyperscaler deals and accelerated capacity expansion translate into a fourth consecutive year of triple-digit YoY revenue growth.

Nebius is now expected to see three consecutive years of triple digit growth from FY25 through FY27.

Revenue growth estimates for FY26 have moved 15 points higher to 166% YoY, while FY27 has now crossed into triple-digit territory at nearly 106% YoY. FY28 growth estimates have jumped more than 30 points to 85%, and, as noted previously, could potentially reach triple-digits if well supported by demand and capacity growth. Microsoft’s deal helps de-risk the growth story to some degree by materially upgrading backlog-like visibility to several billion in revenue through the duration of the deal.

For comparison, CoreWeave is expected to generate 128.4% YoY growth in 2026, though at a substantially larger scale with revenue estimated at $12.01 billion, before rising to $25.8 billion by 2029, or more than 3x the $8.44 billion estimate for Nebius.

Subsidiaries: Avride Progressing with Robotaxis with Key Partners Uber, Hyundai

Outside of its core AI infrastructure services, Nebius has two main subsidiaries: autonomous driving startup Avride and AI ed-tech firm TripleTen, as well as economic stakes in Toloka (now deconsolidated from results) and ClickHouse.

Avride

Avride is continuing to scale its autonomous delivery robot operations, working with Uber Eats in Jersey City, Dallas and Austin, and with Grubhub at the Ohio State University. Avride also is working with Japan’s Mitsui Fudson to deploy autonomous robots for warehouse-to-store logistics.

Avride is also advancing preparations for its autonomous ride-hailing service with Uber later this year in Dallas, based on a fleet of Hyundai Ioniq AVs with Avride handling software and systems integration. Avride said on September 4 it was beginning to ramp up testing to prepare for the Dallas rollout.

Avride is still pre-revenue and burning through cash, and due to the capital intensive nature of scaling autonomous delivery robots and AVs, Nebius is active discussions with potential strategic partners. It will be very challenging, if not impossible, to scale both AI infrastructure, which seems to be priority, with AVs simultaneously with only a few billion in cash. Consider that Waymo has raised more than $11 billion of outside capital, not including what Google has burned through.

TripleTen

TripleTen is a consumer-facing AI ed-tech platform primarily focused on offering coding or tech-skill based bootcamps. TripleTen delivered revenue of $28.8 million in 2024, up 251% YoY, while students enrolled rose 149% to 14,000.

Clickhouse

Nebius has a minority economic stake in open-source database platform ClickHouse, which recently raised $350 million in a Series C round in May. This valued the startup at $6.35 billion, more than tripling its $2 billion valuation from 2021.

Nebius has been straightforward in utilizing its 28% stake in Clickhouse as a means of raising capital, as it could unlock almost $1.8 billion (or more depending on exit valuation) without incurring dilution to shareholders or adding debt to the balance sheet.

Toloka

Toloka is a data provider for LLM and genAI developers, focusing on high-quality data solutions for training, fine-tuning, alignment, and more, counting Amazon, Anthropic, Microsoft and Shopify among its customers.

As of Q2, Nebius is deconsolidating Toloka from earnings results, as its voting share dropped below 50% following a $72 million investment from Bezos Expeditions and Shopify CTO Mikhail Parakhin. Toloka’s revenue rose 138% YoY to $26.4 million, and according to 2025’s guidance, was expected to at least double again to $50 to $70 million.

Financials

Revenue Rises 625% YoY in Q2

Before discussing the financials, it’s important to note that growth figures exclude Toloka’s impact following the deconsolidation in Q2.

Nebius reported a slight beat in Q2 with revenue of $105.1 million, up 625% YoY and 106% QoQ, versus estimates for $101.2 million. AI cloud infrastructure revenue rose more than 9x YoY in the quarter, fueled by strong demand for Hopper GPUs and almost peak GPU utilization.

Q3 is estimated to see revenue up more than $52 million QoQ to $157.1 million, before rising another $106 million QoQ to $263.8 million in Q4.

Looking ahead, Q2 is marking an inflection point for revenue, with growth accelerating sequentially on a dollar basis. Q3 is estimated to see revenue up more than $52 million QoQ to $157.1 million, before rising another $106 million QoQ to $263.8 million in Q4.

For FY25, Nebius has maintained its guidance for $450 million to $630 million in revenue, excluding $50 million to $70 million in revenue attributed to Toloka. What’s interesting here is that management had explained that Nebius could grow faster, but it was “oversold on all of our supply of previous generation Hoppers, and we decided to wait for the new generation of GPUs to come. And finally, the new Blackwells are coming to the market in masses, and in parallel, we are dramatically increasing our data center capacity.” This is fueling strong growth through 2026 and beyond as these Blackwell GPUs come online.

Operating Margins Deeply Negative, Signs of Scale Emerging

While gross margin is expanding rapidly, up from 26% in Q4 to over 70% in Q2, operating margins remain deeply negative as due to the high costs of aggressively expanding data center capacity and GPUs on hand.

Excluding Toloka’s contribution, gross margin was 71.3% in Q2, up nearly 20 points from 51.5% in Q1 and improving nearly 25 points from 46.9% in the year ago quarter. While this signals strong execution to drive this degree of expansion, Nebius is now slightly below CoreWeave’s Q2 gross margin of 74.2%, and it remains to be seen how much further upside there is to gross margin as new capacity comes online.

On the infrastructure side, Nebius is pricing GPUs at a “healthy margin” on a per hour basis, while expectations for premium pricing for Blackwell GPUs may provide a tailwind through 2026. Nebius expects its Hopper GPUs to break even in two to three years on a gross profit level including both hardware and operational expenses, or even quicker when factoring in its higher-margin software and services from its full stack platform. Nebius has not commented on break-even periods for Blackwell GPUs, as it is still actively rolling out the new generation.

Moving down the line, operating margin remains deeply negative at more than (100%) of revenue as expenses continue to outpace revenue at current scale. Q2 operating margin was (105.8%), a notable improvement from (236.4%) in Q1 and (773.8%) in the year-ago quarter. Nebius is exhibiting initial signs of operating leverage, with total operating expenses up just 71% YoY versus the 625% YoY growth in revenue; this was driven mainly by 560% YoY growth in depreciation from increased server capacity, as SG&A decreased (10%) YoY.

GAAP net margin was 556%, as Nebius benefited from a one-time $597.4 million gain from revaluation of equity investments (Toloka’s deconsolidation). Adjusted net margin offers a clearer view of Nebius’ trajectory, coming in at (87.1%) in Q2, up from (164.4%) in Q1 and (424.8%) in the year ago quarter.

Quick Shift to Positive Adj EBITDA

Despite still investing heavily in capacity and its GPU fleet and kicking off its hypergrowth phase, Nebius is showing strong cost control as its core AI infrastructure business shifted to positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2. However, corporate adjusted EBITDA remains negative as Nebius continues to invest in Avride and TripleTen.

Q2 adjusted EBITDA was ($21 million), or a (20%) margin, improving from a (113.2%) margin in Q1. Nebius had laid out expectations in Q1 for adjusted EBITDA to shift to positive territory by 2H 2025, with Q3 the expected inflection point. Q2’s result does help cement this shift with higher probability now, but it will need to be proven.

For 2026, Nebius expects corporate adjusted EBITDA to be positive for the year, building on the AI cloud momentum as capacity and revenue ramp. Nebius has also offered some long-term targets for when its AI cloud business reaches scale (its medium term ‘several billion’ revenue size). At this scale, Nebius is targeting adjusted EBITDA margins between 20% to 30%, assuming a depreciation schedule of four years. Attaching this to FY29’s projected revenue of $8.44 billion, this would imply around $1.7 billion to $2.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

EPS Expected to Remain Negative as Nebius Scales

Nebius is expected to report negative EPS through all of fiscal 2025 and 2026, with no clear indication yet of when the company could or will shift to profitability. Current estimates show Nebius losing ($1.47) in 2025 and minimal improvement to ($1.34) in 2026.

There are no analyst estimates beyond 2026, but given the capital intensity of greenfield data center development, continuous scaling of capacity, not to mention potential investments into Avride, Nebius may face a long road to profitability.

Nebius is not expected to see much improvement in EPS, with losses of ($1.47) expected in 2025 and ($1.34) in 2026

Source: YChartsYCharts

Capex at $2B for 2025 Pressuring Cash Flows

Aggressive capacity expansion plans and a 33% increase in FY25 capex expectations from $1.5 billion to $2 billion, or nearly 4x expected revenue for the year, mean Nebius is quickly burning through cash.

  • Operating cash flow was ($167.7) million in Q2, for a (159.6%) margin, improving from a (357.7%) margin in Q1. However, this represented just a $30 million sequential improvement from ($197.8) million, suggesting that the path to positive cash flows may be prolonged.
  • Free cash flow was ($678.3) million in Q2 for a (645.4%) margin, versus ($741.8 million) for a (1341.4%) margin in Q1.
  • Capex was $510.6 million in Q2, or nearly 5x of revenue, down slightly from $544 million in Q1. 1H capex surpassed $1.05 billion.
  • Cash and equivalents totaled $1.68 billion, up only slightly from $1.45 billion in Q1 as Nebius deployed much of June’s $1 billion raise to capex and operations. Including the recent $2.75 billion raise and $1 billion share sale, cash is likely around or above $5 billion. At current burn rates, Nebius would have nearly 10 quarters of cash, but it is likely that capex will accelerate (think of CoreWeave as a leading indicator) to support growth in power and capacity.
  • Debt was $0.98 billion as of Q2, not including the recently priced $2.75 billion in notes.

Regarding capex, management stated that they “want to be opportunistic when it comes to really ramping up our infrastructure capacity as we see demand, and so we want to be able to sort of chase secure that demand well. And so we’ve considered some additional investments beyond the initial data center expansion plan.”

However, AI infrastructure is costly, and Nebius has already increased its guidance quite substantially for its size. The $2 billion guide also came prior to the Microsoft deal, which could add upwards force to capex and further pressure cash and cash flows, forcing Nebius into a vicious cycle of raise to build.

For example, CoreWeave is guiding to spend $20 billion to $23 billion in capex this year, also more than 4x its revenue and with potentially up to $15 billion hitting in Q4. For Nebius to keep pace with CoreWeave and scale at accelerated rates, capex needs are only going to move much higher, one that its balance sheet may not be able to sustain at the moment.

Earnings Q&A

Greenfield Site Selection

Given that Nebius is looking to acquire multiple greenfield sites for new capacity, analysts questioned why that was the route management is taking versus colocation or build-to-suit. While greenfield development provides full control over construction and design from the ground up, it can be a more expensive and longer time to power versus colocation using existing infrastructure.

Chief Product and Innovation Officer Andrey Korolenko answered why Nebius favors greenfields over build-to-suit:

“We typically favor greenfields because we can control every aspect of the data center from the design to construction to the hardware installations and deployment and phasing. We can actually tailor the phasing according to our demand. And for us, it's cheaper to build than build-to- suit, and we are not locked into the long-term leases. Also, by controlling the design of the building, starting from the — how power is piped into building and design and installation of our own racks and servers, we can achieve a lower total cost of ownership, probably around 20% less than the market average.”

Quickly Selling Through Capacity

Management also shed light on utilization trends, which support accelerated revenue growth moving forward as more capacity comes online. Higher utilization rates are important as it means GPUs are not sitting idle for long periods of time, generating revenue and shortening payback periods for high-capex server investments.

Chief Revenue Officer Marc Boroditsky explained that as Nebius “brought on more capacity, we sold through it. And by the end of the quarter, we were at peak utilization. There's a nice trend that we're actually starting to witness. As we bring on larger clusters, we are able to bring on new large customers who want to purchase greater and greater capacity. This allows us to expand and diversify our customer base and has been a clear signal there is growing opportunity in the market. This also suggests strong demand to support ramping up our capacity. If we had more capacity in the second quarter, we probably would have sold more as well.”

This ties in to comments about how growth could have been higher if Nebius was not GPU constrained, and signals a healthy demand environment for the moment as inference begins to take off. However, this is not a trend that can be assumed to last forever, given the competitive nature of the neocloud and hypercloud arena and the fact that Nebius’ growth is directly tied to its ability to deliver increasingly more capacity without delay.

Tariff Impacts:

Interestingly, Nebius discussed potential tariff impacts on Q2’s call, noting that it is still a bit early to form any definitive conclusions regarding any detrimental impacts. Chief Communications Officer Tom Blackwell said that “for now, it's a bit early to say anything definitive” about how tariffs could affect growth, though he stated that it is “possible we could potentially see some short-term fluctuations.”

Conclusion

Neoclouds present a high risk/high reward opportunity for investors, as mega-deals like Microsoft’s recent contract with Nebius highlight just how supply constrained the market is. On the other hand these firms have little access to organic cash and cash flows, and instead must turn to debt to fund aggressive capacity expansion.

The Microsoft deal and aggressive capacity expansion are fueling a prolonged period of hypergrowth for Nebius, with the company currently expected to see three, potentially four, consecutive years of triple-digit revenue growth. However, capex is outpacing revenue by a factor of 5x, and the recent debt and share sale may only provide a few quarters of runway before more cash is needed to fund this growth.  

As stated in the intro, ultimately, we are stepping away from the stock. While it’s clear that Nebius could do well in an AI-driven market and the stock could extend rapidly, we want to be prudent about what will hold up should we see a softer AI narrative. We like other names in our portfolio better in terms of participating in the upside while protecting to the downside for when we do get that inevitable tech selloff. Primarily, the negative free cash flow, capital intensive operations and weak margins are among reasons we believe there are stronger names in our portfolio.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Posted in AI Stocks, Cloud InfrastructureLeave a Comment on Nebius: Mega Microsoft Deal, 5x Growth in Power Fueling AI Cloud Hypergrowth, But High Risk Remains

Broadcom Hints of AI Revenue Growth Accelerating in FY26; Backlog of $110B 

Posted on September 5, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Broadcom Q3 results confirm the stock as the number two player in AI as a combination of AI networking, custom silicon and AI software propelled total revenue to record levels. Semiconductor Solutions accelerated nine points to 26% YoY growth due to a rebound in AI accelerators (+63% YoY) and networking (170% YoY). While non-AI Semiconductor revenue remains weak and flat sequentially, VMware’s contribution helped prop up the segment.  

Looking ahead, Broadcom’s Q4 guide implies acceleration into year-end, with total revenue expected to reach $17.4B. More importantly, we picked up on a subtle shift in commentary from CEO Hock Tan regarding AI revenue growth in FY26, which should place Broadcom firmly above $30 billion for next fiscal year. Tan stated: “[…] we now expect the outlook for fiscal 2026 AI revenue to improve significantly from what we had indicated last quarter.”  

As we previously discussed this summer, demand for inference is booming. Broadcom’s edge goes beyond the fact that custom accelerators are often multiples cheaper than Nvidia’s GPUs for inference tasks – it's that custom silicon is increasingly performant with each generation. By optimizing algorithms (software), Big Tech can drive higher performance from large language models (LLMs) — which helps to drive down costs while also increasing output for specific workloads. For example, a rough idea as to how much it costs Nvidia to make merchant GPUs is estimated around $3,000 to $5,000 whereas the company charges $25,000 to $30,000 – hence the AI leader’s excellent margins. Reducing Nvidia’s high pricing power is what Big Tech is after and this can be accomplished both in the hardware costs but also through optimizing the workloads for specific use cases. 

Big Tech is prominent in Broadcom’s custom silicon customer list, which includes Google and Meta. ByteDance reportedly emerged as the third customer last summer. Tonight, a fourth customer was announced for a $10 billion XPU order, which was likely either OpenAI or perhaps Apple, as both were heavily rumored to be prospective customers (note: customer name was not offiically confirmed) 

“Last quarter, one of these prospects release production orders to Broadcom. And we have accordingly characterized them as a qualified customer for XPUs. And, in fact, has secured over $10 billion of orders of AI regs based on our XPUs.” 

Perhaps most interesting, Hock Tan slipped into the opening remarks that their backlog is at $110 billion. I was glad when an analyst circled back to this comment as this backlog is astonishing, to say the least.  

More details are below!

170% AI Networking Growth – Outpacing Street Models 

Q3’25 Revenue was $15.95 billion, beating estimates for $15.82 billion, and reflecting top line growth of 22.0% YoY and 6.3% QoQ. This represents record quarterly revenue, driven by custom AI accelerators, networking switches, and VMware strength in Infrastructure Software.  

Looking ahead, management provided Q4’25 guidance of $17.4 billion of revenue, implying 24% YoY growth and a slight uptick to 9% QoQ growth. This guide suggests that AI strength will more than offset flat non-AI revenue, while VMware remains a stable contributor. 

Key Segments 

Semiconductors were the main growth driver, fueled by AI accelerators and Ethernet networking. Infrastructure Software, which includes VMware acquisition, remained strong even though growth decelerated slightly when compared to prior quarters, 

Semiconductor Solutions Revenue accelerated nine points to 26% YoY at $9.17 billion. AI Semiconductor revenue surged 63% YoY to $5.2B, showing re-acceleration after a slower Q2 (+46% YoY). AI now represents 57% of Semiconductor revenue and 32% of total company revenue.  

Management guided Q4 AI revenue to $6.2B, which would represent ~19% sequential growth and eleven consecutive quarters of YoY growth. Though Broadcom did not lay out a FY25 AI revenue target, Q4 implies Broadcom is guiding for $19.9 billion in AI revenue for the year, up 63% YoY from $12.2 billion in FY24. 

Non-AI Semiconductor revenue remained flat at ~$4B, indicating continued end-market softness outside of AI. As seen below, the gap between AI and non-AI revenue is widening as AI growth accelerates. 

Infrastructure Software Revenue of $6.8B, ahead of guidance of $6.7B, up $190M QoQ from $6.6B in Q2’25 and up from $5.8B in Q3’24. $6.7B in revenue represents 43% of total revenue and 17% YoY Growth. 

Operating Leverage Offsets Gross Margin Compression 

Broadcom delivered balanced profitability in Q3 FY25. While AI hardware growth slightly compressed GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins, the Company leveraged its scale and VMware’s recurring revenue to expand operating and net margins YoY. Broadcom’s ability to maintain a 67% EBITDA margin during a period of rapid AI expansion demonstrates exceptional cost control and pricing power, positioning it well for the Q4 acceleration. See below for in-depth breakdown of GAAP and Non-GAAP margin figures: 

GAAP gross margin of 67.1%, down 90 bps QoQ from 68% in Q2, and up from 63.9% in the same period last year. The margins were down sequentially due to custom silicon mix, which typically carries lower margins. Broadcom is flexing its ability to manage cost structures even as AI accelerators scale rapidly. 

Non-GAAP gross margin of 78.4%, down 100 bps QoQ from 79.4% in Q2 and up 100 bps YoY. This is driven by the increase in AI hardware revenue, which has lower gross margins compared to VMware’s high-margin software business. 

GAAP operating margin of 36.9%, down 190 bps QoQ from 38.8% in Q2, but up significantly from 29% in the same period last year. QoQ decline reflects seasonal opex and YoY improvement reflects strong operating leverage. 

Non-GAAP operating margin of 65.5%, slightly up QoQ from 65.3% in Q2’25 and up 180 bps from 63.7% in Q3’24. Broadcom is maintaining tight opex control even as it invests heavily in AI and networking. Non-GAAP margin stability reflects strong execution in managing both segments. 

GAAP Net Margin of 26.0%, down from 33.1% in Q2’25 and up from (14.3%) in Q3’24. Non-GAAP Net Margin of 52.7%, up from 51.9% in Q2’25 and up from 43.6% in Q3’24. Adjusted profitability is expanding as Broadcom benefits from both VMware’s recurring software revenue and AI-driven scale. 

Adjusted EBITDA of $10.7B, compared to $10.0B in Q2’25 and $8.2B in Q3’24. This represents an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 67.1%, compared to 66.7% in Q2’25 and 62.9% in Q3’24. 

Key Takeaways: 

  • AI Mix Impact on GM: As AI Semi revenue grows (now sits at 32% of company revenue) there is slight gross margin pressure because custom silicon and hardware products carry lower margins. 
  • Offset by Operating Leverage: Despite gross margin compression, non-GAAP operating margin expanded YoY thanks to scale and cost efficiencies. 
  • Stable EBITDA Margin: Maintaining a 67% EBITDA margin while growing 22% YoY highlights Broadcom’s unique profitability profile when compared to peers. 
  • Watch Forward Trend: With AI projected to reach $6.2B in Q4, mix shift could continue to pressure GAAP gross margins further. Look for growth from VMware and networking to keep non-GAAP margins steady or even up. 

EPS Growth driven by Top-Line Growth & Economies of Scale 

Non-GAAP EPS growth is the real story here: up 38% YoY, reflecting Broadcom’s ability to capitalize on AI strength with containing costs. GAAP EPS lagged slightly due to accounting for VMware’s amortization and elevated interest expense – not driven by any core business weakness.

EPS growth of 36.3% outpaced revenue growth of 22%, highlighting the company’s dual-engine model: AI hardware scale drives top-line growth while VMware’s recurring software offsets margin volatility and lifts EPS. Investors will appreciate the strong non-GAAP EPS beat and expansion in operating margins, especially given Broadcom’s premium valuation, where both EPS stability and growth are critical to sustaining multiples.  

  • GAAP EPS of $1.02, compared to $1.03 in prior quarter and ($0.40) in prior-year quarter. 
  • Non-GAAP EPS of $1.72, compared to $1.58 in prior quarter and $1.24 in prior-year quarter.  

Record Free Cash Flow Conversion 

Broadcom converted 44% of revenue into free cash flow, placing it among the top-tier semiconductor companies for cash generation. Strong OCF growth driven by AI semiconductor momentum and VMware’s software contribution. Broadcom continues to de-risk its balance sheet, reducing debt by $3B sequentially while building cash reserves and modestly increasing inventory ahead of anticipated Q4 AI revenue acceleration. With high FCF conversion and a strong balance sheet, Broadcom should have ample flexibility to return capital to shareholders and fund future AI growth initiatives, reinforcing its premium valuation. See below for an breakdown on cash flow figures: 

  • GAAP operating cash flow of $7.2B, up 10% QoQ compared to $6.5B in Q2’25 and 57% YoY $4.6B in Q3’24. This represents an operating cash flow margin of 44.9%, up from 43.7% in Q2’25 and 36.7% in Q3’24. 
  • Free Cash Flow of $7.0B, compared to $6.41B in Q2’25 and $4.5B in Q3’24. This represents a free cash flow margin of 44.0%, compared to 42.7% in Q2’25 and 35.6% in Q3’24. 
  • Cash and Cash Equivalents of $10.7B, up from $9.5B as of Q2’25 and up from $10.0B as of Q3’24.  
  • Debt of $64.2B, down from $67.2B in Q2’25, and down from $69.9B in Q3’24.  
  • Inventory of $2.2B, up from $2.0B in Q2’25, and up from $1.8B in Q3’24. 

Valuation 

Broadcom currently trades at a premium to Nvidia, sitting at 19x forward revenue vs Nvidia 17.6x. Based on forward earnings, AVGO trades at 38x forward earnings, 13% above Nvidia and 18% above semi-industry average.  

This premium suggests that the market is pricing in 70%+ AI revenue CAGR through FY27, above management’s current 60%. The implication here: Any sign of AI growth slowing or continued margin pressure could trigger a valuation reset.  

Earnings Call Q&A 

Hock Tan Hints that Strong AI Growth is Incoming 

Last quarter, Hock Tan had stated the following: “And reflecting this, we may actually see an acceleration of XPU demand into the back half of 2026 to meet urgent demand for inference on top of the demand we have indicated from training. And accordingly, we do anticipate now our fiscal 2025 growth rate of AI semiconductor revenue to sustain into fiscal 2026." 

This evening, the following was stated:  

“we now expect the outlook for fiscal 2026 AI revenue to improve significantly from what we had indicated last quarter.” 

When asked later to clarify, Tan reaffirmed our understanding that it would mean above 60% growth and it was also stated the majority of the growth would come from XPUs with networking’s share of AI revenue declining next year due to XPU strength. 

“Let's answer the first part first, if I could be so bold as to suggest to you, when I — last quarter when they said, "Hey, the trend of growth of '26 will mirror that of '25which is 50%, 60% year-on-year. That's really all I said. I didn't — but of course, it comes up 50%, 60% because that's what '25 is.  

All I'm saying, if you want to put another way of looking at what I'm saying, which is perhaps more accurate is we're seeing — the growth rate accelerates as opposed to just remain steady at that 50%, 60%. We are expecting and seeing 2026 to accelerate more than the growth rate we see in '25. And I know you love me to throw in the number at you, but we are not supposed to be giving you a forecast for '26. But best way to describe it, it will be fairly material improvement.” 

Back of the napkin math:

Given that Hock Tan disclosed that Broadcom had secured $10B+ of orders related to the new fourth customer, current growth projections may materialize far too low. We have some estimates from HSBC placing just ASICs revenue at $28.3B (+128% YoY) with only $2.5B contribution from customers outside GOOG and META. 

The Street is at $19.9B for ASICs in FY26; assuming the Street is still at $28-29B AI revenue for FY26, this places Networking at $8-9B. 

However, assuming XPU strength and strong networking demand (as seen throughout the ecosystem) can drive an acceleration to 70% YoY in FY26, this projects $33.8B in AI revenue up from $19.9B estimated in FY25 given the implied guide. 

This ramp is supported by estimated ~80% increase in CoWoS allocation from ~83K in FY25 to ~150K in FY26, after Broadcom reportedly increased orders last week from 120-125K expected in FY26. 

Notably, Hock Tan did say the additional $10 billion would be recognized in Q3 of FY2026 during the call.  

$110 Billion Backlog 

Broadcom stating a $110 billion backlog was not on my Bingo card tonight. Wow! That is certainly a strong statement in terms of Broadcom’s prospects for continued AI growth. It’ll take me a day or two to process what that could mean for the next 1-3 years, assuming some of this is supply constrained.  

An analyst did ask for clarity and since it’s a rather large number to provide, especially since it’s primarily AI-driven, I’m quoting it in full for you below: 

Stacy Rasgon. Bernstein & Co. 

I was wondering if you could parse out this $110 billion backlog. Did I hear that number right? Could you give some color on the makeup of it — like how far does that go — and like how much of that $110 billion is AI versus non-AI versus software? 

Kirsten Spears   CFO: 

Well, yes, Stacy, we generally don't break up back on digital to give you a sense of how strong the business is as a whole for the company, and it's largely driven buying AI in terms of growth. Software continued to add on a steady basis. And non-AI, as I indicated, has grown double digits. Nothing compared to AI, which has grown very strongly. Give you a sense, perhaps fully 50% of it at least is semiconductors. 

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein: 

Okay. And it's fair to say that semiconductor piece, it's going to be much more AI than non AI. 

Hock Tan, President: 

Right. 

Custom Silicon is Progressively Gaining Market Share 

During the discussion, an analyst asserted that custom silicon could surpass GPUs in terms of market share. That’s a tall order given Nvidia will typically be 1-2 years ahead of any custom programs (thereby offering an advantage to those who remain with their GPUs) and the two companies will likely end the year nearly $180B apart in AI revenue with AVGO around $20B and NVDA over $200B (could see $212B). 

However, I’ve also argued inference will provide an opening for Broadcom and AMD to meaningfully compete on AI accelerators. Therefore, I’m all ears and we will be watching this closely as we move along 2026-2028. 

Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler: 

Hock, congratulations on all the exciting AI metrics and thanks for everything you do for Broadcom and sticking around. Hock, my question is, you've got 3 to 4 existing customers that are ramping. As the data centers for AI clusters get bigger and bigger, it makes sense to have differentiation, efficiency, et cetera, therefore, the case for XPUs. Why should I not think that your XPU share at these 3 or 4 customers that are existing will be bigger than the GPU share in the longer term? 

Hock Tan, CEO: 

It will be. It's a logical conclusion, Harsh, you're correct. And we are seeing that step by step. As I say, it's a journey. It's a multiyear journey because it's multigenerational, because these XPUs don't stay still either. I'm doing multiple versions, at least 2 versions, 2 generation versions, for each of these customers we have. And with each newer generation, they increase the consumption, the usage of the XPU. As they gain confidence, as the model improves, they deploy it even more. […]  And that's why I say we progressively gained share.”

Conclusion: 

Broadcom’s AI networking growth of 170% YoY and sharp rebound in custom accelerators at 63% YoY was certainly a highlight. In addition to strong AI growth, the company maintained a 67% EBITDA margin despite lower-margin hardware scaling, while record free cash flow of $7.0B highlighting the company’s financial strength. With AI now making up a third of total revenue and Q4 revenue projected at $6.2B, Broadcom is slated to accelerate XPUs as a primary beneficiary of the inference era.  

The nod toward accelerating growth in 2026 is why the stock went from flat to +5% AH, as the CEO seemed to hint that 70% AI growth or higher is not out of the question. Essentially, there are still four months to go in 2025 and Broadcom is gearing up for a strong 2026 already. The backlog of $110 billion was a “sit up in your seat” moment as it will force analysts to ponder – just how long will it take to work through that backlog? One can safely assume the backlog will only grow from here, as Broadcom is communicating they are preparing to be a strong contender to Nvidia toward the end of this decade.  

That’s a wrap! The I/O Fund’s earnings season is officially coming to a close. Keep an eye out for deep dives over the coming weeks plus coverage of notable earnings reports on stocks we don’t own.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own shares in AVGO at the time of writing and may own stocks pictured in the charts.

Recommended Reading:

  • Credo’s Hypergrowth Intact as 274% YoY Growth Leads to Massive Bottom Line Expansion
  • Dell Q2: Exceptional AI Growth yet AI Margins Miss the Mark
  • Nvidia Q2: Guidance for Q3 Saved the Day; $10T Market Cap Prediction Revisited
  • AMD Reports in Line while AI Story to Improve from Here
Posted in AI Stocks, SemiconductorsLeave a Comment on Broadcom Hints of AI Revenue Growth Accelerating in FY26; Backlog of $110B 

Credo’s Hypergrowth Intact as 274% YoY Growth Leads to Massive Bottom Line Expansion

Posted on September 4, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Credo easily had one of the best earnings reports across the tech sector this quarter. The company reported growth of 274% YoY and 31% QoQ for revenue of $223.1 million. This beat estimates on the top line by 17% with management raising full-year revenue growth outlook by 35 points, from 85% YoY to 120% YoY. This corresponds to revenue of at least $960 million, and considering Credo expects two new hyperscaler customers to ramp in mid to late FY26, the company could well be on a trajectory to reach $1 billion in revenue this fiscal year. This would be an entire year ahead of analyst expectations, which projected $1 billion in revenue in FY27 heading into the report. 

The bottom line also shined with adjusted EPS beating estimates by 44.4%. This represents growth of 1,200% YoY from a thin $0.04 in the prior-year quarter. Triple-digit growth of 425% on the bottom line is expected to follow although flat QoQ.  

To be prudent, Credo’s Q2’s guide could be perceived as soft, at ~5.4% QoQ versus the 31% QoQ reported in Q1. Additionally, analysts were concerned about lumpiness in lead customers, although to be fair, Credo has done quite well with few customers up to this point by tackling a large total addressable market (TAM) with reliable yet cost-effective solutions. Credo’s proprietary serializer/deserialzer (Ser/Des) technology, active electric cables and digital signal processing (DSPs) are the cornerstone of its IP portfolio, giving the company a significant competitive advantage as it enables the power-efficient connectivity and reasonable pricing that the company is known for. 

In a nutshell, this is why Credo is reporting surging growth in a highly competitive market: “Reliability and power efficiency [leads] to choosing AECs over optical solutions as they are up to 1,000x more reliable and consume half the power. AECs virtually eliminate link fabs, which are intermittent losses of connection, boosting cluster reliability and productivity while reducing power consumption.” 

More information on how Credo plans to sustain growth into 2026 is noted below in the Q&A section, along with more details from tonight’s standout earnings report. 

Revenue Growth Accelerates Nearly 100 Points 

Credo smashed its own guidance by more than $33 million as it reported $223.1 million in revenue in Q1, riding strong demand for its power-efficient high-speed connectivity solutions. Growth accelerated nearly 100 points sequentially to 274% YoY, well ahead of estimates for 219%. On a sequential basis, revenue rose 31% QoQ, a slight acceleration from 26% QoQ in fiscal Q4. 

Coming into the report, the bar was already set high as estimates called for a 150-point revenue acceleration over three quarters to >200% YoY growth.  

For fiscal Q2, Credo guided for $230 to $240 million, or 226% YoY at midpoint, decelerating nearly 50 points from Q1. Sequentially, the guide feels more conservative at ~5.4% QoQ considering the product momentum Credo has behind it with AECs, optics and DSPs.  

As of Q4, management had provided initial FY26 revenue guidance of >$800 million representing 85% YoY growth. Now, this has been updated to growth of 120% YoY, or north of $960 million for the year.  

Customer Concentration: 

In Q4’25, Credo disclosed its largest customer accounted for 61% of revenue (widely believed to be Microsoft). Management said they expected up to five >10% customers in FY26, up from three in FY25. Two additional hyperscalers were highlighted as ramping in mid-and late-FY26, with potential to become > 10% customers. 

In its Q1’26, Credo provided some additional color around progress on these fronts. Management confirmed that the three >10% customers noted in Q4’25 were consistent in Q1’26, coming in at 35%, 33% and 20% of total revenue respectively.  

The largest customer in FY25 continues to be the largest customer so far in FY26, signaling deepening relationships on-top of these new customer adds. Management also noted that Q1 included its first material revenue contribution from a 4th hyperscaler, with the 4th customer expected to surpass the >10% threshold by year end. Management expects continued progress around diversification through FY26.  

Key Segments

Product Revenue: came in $217.1M, up 279% YoY and 31% QoQ. This is just shy of +303% YoY growth in Q4FY25 but still represents hypergrowth scale. Credo’s core engine remains AECs, which continue to benefit from rack-scale AI deployments). The fact that product revenue sustained triple-digit YoY growth while already running at a $200M+ quarterly pace suggest demand remains well ahead of consensus estimates. 

IP License Revenue of $6.0M vs $4.2M in Q4 represented 44% QoQ. Still a smaller slice of the “revenue” pie but showing sequential growth. While licensing is still <3% of revenue but provides margin-accretive diversification. Growth here reinforces the stickiness of Credo’s SerDes IP, but the story remains dominated by physical product sales. 

Engineering Services not broken out in this release, likely immaterial versus Product Sales. 

Key Takeaways: 

  • AEC remains the primary growth driver – scaling with hyperscaler AI deployments. Product revenue is highly concentrated. 
  • Optics / DSP not broken out numerically this quarter, but management previously guided for 100% growth in FY26. Given the revenue beat, optics may already by contributing to incremental upside. 
  • Retimers / PCIe 6 are still in early stage, but momentum in design wins should show up later FY26- FY27. 

Operating Margin Shows Strong Sequential Expansion 

GAAP Gross Margin was 67.4%, up from 67.2% last quarter and up from 62.5% in prior-year quarter. Adjusted gross Margin was 67.5%, down from 68.0% last quarter but up from 62.9% in prior-year quarter. Coming into the report, Credo had guided for: GAAP gross margin of 63.4 – 65.4% and adjusted gross margin of 64 – 66%. This shows continued expansion despite hypergrowth, a rare feat at this scale. Gross margins are expanding as volumes surge – evidence that AEC and optics pricing power is intact, and scale is not being bought at the expense of margin.  

GAAP Operating Margin was 27.2%, up from 19.9% last quarter and up from (24.2%) in prior-year quarter. Adjusted Operating Margin was 43.1%, up from 36.8% last quarter and up from 3.7% in prior-year quarter. This is the standout – massive operating leverage as opex grew only ~11% QoQ vs. the 31% pick up in revenue. Non-GAAP operating margin of 40% signals that Credo is already functioning with elite efficiency, while still in hypergrowth mode. 

GAAP Net Margin was 28.4%, up from 21.5% last quarter and up from (15.9%) in prior-year quarter. Adjusted Net Margin was 44.1%, up from 38.4% last quarter and up  from 11.7% in prior-year quarter. Net Margins largely mirror the operating leverage story – Credo has become a profit machine far earlier in its lifecycle than most hardware names. The non-GAAP margin profile rivals leading semiconductor companies, while GAAP remains strong despite rising stock comp. 

Adjusted EPS up 1,200% YoY 

Credo reported GAAP EPS of $0.34, up from $0.20 last quarter and up from ($0.06) in prior-year quarter.  

Q1’s adjusted EPS was $0.52, up 1,200% YoY from a thin $0.04 in the prior-year quarter and beating estimates by more than 44%. This also was a ~50% sequential improvement from $0.35 in Q4 driven by strong margin expansion down the line. 

Credo is currently expected to report 435% YoY growth in adjusted EPS in Q2 to $0.37 and 58.4% growth in Q3 to $0.40, though given the margin strengths and sizable Q1 beat, these figures could move higher in the coming days. 

Solid Cash Flow Generation in Q1 

Credo’s balance sheet and cash flow position remain a core strength, underpinned by solid profitability, disciplined working capital management, and a debt-free structure. The company exited Q1 FY26 with $480 million in cash and investments, up from $431 million last quarter which should provide ample liquidity to support on-going product ramps and elevated R&D spend. Operating and free cash flow remained robust despite a sequential moderation from Q4’s unusually strong collections, with improvements in receivables management (DSO down to 73 from 86) helping offset continued investment in inventory. Inventory days held steady even as dollar levels rose, suggesting stocking is keeping pace with sales growth rather than accelerating further. Payables contracted notably, with DPO falling to 68 days from 91, reflecting less supplier financing and contributing to a softer cash conversion cycle. Overall, Credo continues to generate healthy cash margins, maintain a fortress balance sheet, and reinvestment modestly in capacity through capex. 

Though cash flows moderated slightly from Q4, both operating and free cash flow margins remained >20%. This represented substantial YoY expansion in OCF and FCF margins of 35 to 45 points.

  • GAAP Operating Cash Flow of $54.2 million, down slightly from $57.8 million last quarter and up from ($7.2 million) in the prior-year quarter. This represents an OCF Margin of 24.3%, down from 34.3% last quarter but up significantly from (12.1%) in the prior-year quarter. 
  • Free Cash Flow of $53.1 million, down from $54.2 million last quarter and up from ($13.1 million) in the prior-year quarter. This represents an FCF Margin of 23.8%, down from 31.9% last quarter but up more than 45 points from (21.9%) in the prior-year quarter. 
  • Cash and Cash Equivalents (including short-term investments) of $479.6 million, up from $431.3 million last quarter. Credo remains debt-free. 
  • Accounts receivable of $181.2M up from $162M in Q4’25 and $71.8M in Q1’25. Q1’26 implies DSO of 73 days compared to 86 days as of Q4’25, reflecting a meaningful improvement in collections. Credo is monetizing sales faster despite rapid growth which is supportive for cash flow sustainability and offsets some of the working capital drag from inventory. 
  • Inventory of $116.6M, up from $90.0M last quarter and up from $31.5M in prior-year quarter. Q1’26 DIO (Days Inventory Outstanding) of 144 days is largely flat compared to Q4’25 DIO of 145 days. Inventory levels are holding steady relative to COGS, despite inventories increasing in dollar terms. This suggests the big build last quarter may have been a step-function while Q1 was more consistent stocking in line with higher sales volume. 
  • Accounts payable of $54.9M, down from $56.2M in prior quarter and $38.47 in prior year. DPO (Days Payable Outstanding) in Q1’26 is down to 68 days compared to 91 days in Q4’25. This reflects a notable decline of 23 days in payables days and could be due to earlier supplier payments, changes in terms, or timing effects.  
  • Capex was $2.8M, driven mostly by production equipment. This figure is down from $3.7M in prior quarter and down from $22.0M in prior year quarter.  production equipment 

Earnings Call Q&A Highlights 

Commentary on Customer Concentration: 

There was a moment during the call when the price action was more muted +5% versus +12% now. I believe it happened when management disclosed the lead customer represented 35% of revenue in Q1 compared to 61% last quarter. However, the market is being fickle if so, as customer diversification should be seen as a strength. 

Here is what the CFO stated: 

“Vivek Arya   BofA Securities: 

First set of questions is on the AEC market. If you could quantify how large each of your 10% customers were if they were the same as you had in the prior quarter? 

And then Bill, if I zoom out, the market for you is now run rating closer to $1 billion or so. How large do you think this market is over time? And do you think this market is cannibalizing traditional copper? Or do you think at some point, it is even cannibalizing optical transceivers? 

Daniel Fleming, CFO: 

Vivek, this is Dan. Let me address the 10% customer question that you had. So as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we had three 10% customers in Q1. They were the same three customers that were 10% customers in Q4. The mix was a little bit different, though. Our largest customer was 35% of revenue. Second largest was 33% and the third largest was 20%. So we're quite pleased with that kind of the customer diversity that we demonstrated within Q1.  

But having said that, we expect continued diversification, as Bill highlighted, throughout fiscal '26. We do see two additional hyperscalers ramping, one of which, which was our fourth hyperscaler, we mentioned should reach to be a 10% customer for the full year of fiscal '26. 

And then the last thing I'll mention on customer our largest customer for fiscal '25 is the largest driver of our growth in fiscal '26 as we stand right now and look forward. So that's an important factor to bear in mind as well as you look at how our year will progress..” 

Later, an analyst asked for more clarity as to why the lead customer was down yet management stated the largest customer from last year will remain their largest customer for FY26 “by far, actually.” 

Copper AECs versus Optical: 

I think it’s worth repeating why Credo is seeing outsized demand in an otherwise crowded market – and one that can change rapidly in terms of which suppliers are confirmed, and if direct active cables are used (DACs), active electric cables (AECs) or optional solutions.  

The question was: “And do you think this market is cannibalizing traditional copper? Or do you think at some point, it is even cannibalizing optical transceivers?” 

This question is important as it’s asking why can Credo take market share with AECs from both traditional copper and optical.  

The CEO stated: “But I think with the emphasis on reliability as it relates to clusters that we see customers really considering using AECs. It's really driven by reliability. I mentioned on the prepared comments that we're up to 1,000x more reliable, effectively reducing length laps and having the uptime of the cluster being much more. 

Again, reiterating that if you have got a single link flap in, say, 10,000 or 100,000 or 1 million GPU cluster, it brings the entire cluster down because there's no redundancy from that NIC to tour connection. And so we're actually seeing the TAM expanding. And I think for the first time in history that you're seeing copper replacing optical connections. So we're quite bullish on the market generally.” 

Specifically, where Credo has done well is with row-scale connectivity, which links racks in a single row. However, there are additional ongoing opportunities for Credo in rack-scale networking with NiC and Tor (top of rack) switches, as these both represent distances ideal for the reliability and power efficiency of AECs compared to optical. NiC-to-Tor would be a new opportunity for Credo: “Again, to reiterate, we see a huge opportunity from NIC to TOR applications as well as switch rack applications. And that is for front end and really emphasized much more strongly in back end, both in scale out and scale up.” 

Overall management felt confident that the advantages AECs offer will continue to see increased adoption by hyperscalers with scale-out being the main driver now for Credo, yet scale-up being a future driver as well that is “an order of magnitude larger” 

“When we talk about rack-to-rack, this is really the expanding part of the TAM really in both markets from the standpoint of AI back-end networks. as well as switch racks. Switch racks are starting to go to multiple rack architectures. And so as we talk about the near-term opportunity for rack-to-rack, it's really represented by the scale-out network. But long term, we see that the scale-up network also represents a really large growth in TAM, given the fact that we expect the volumes for scale-up to be potentially in order of magnitude larger than the scale-up connections. 

So I think on several fronts, we can make the argument that we're still in the early stages. And I don't think there's any doubt in the market about if you can use copper, you will use copper given the advantages for reliability, power and cost.” 

This was also stated in terms of how the market will only grow from here for Credo: 

“Yes, I wouldn't say it's across the board. I would say that the first step typically is intra-rack, so 3-meter or less connections within the same rack. And this is just recent over the last 6 to 9 months that we've seen traction as our customers start to realize the opportunity to deliver much better cluster reliability and also secondarily better power. And so I would say that we're at the early stages still of having the market expand into rack-to-rack types of solutions. But I do think there's going to be an acceleration in the way that our customers view and use AECs.” 

Increasing TAM from Tighter GPU Clusters, PCIe Retimers, LROs and More: 

In the opening remarks, the CEO emphasized that Credo is expanding its total addressable market in a few key areas. That message is especially relevant for investors in a hypergrowth stock like this one, where analyst models currently forecast a sharp slowdown — from 274% YoY growth to just 26% over the next three quarters. Analysts have consistently set the bar too low, as shown by Credo’s roughly 30% beats for three straight quarters. Still, the key question remains whether the company can continue sustaining this pace of growth. 

Management pointed toward the following: 

  • Packing more GPUs into clusters is a catalyst for AECs:“We also see the trend towards GPU and cluster densification to continue to be a catalyst for an expanding AEC TAM. Over the past year, we've seen customer interest for AECs expand from intra-rack solutions to rack-to-rack solutions.”

    Management also pointed toward scale-up as a significant growth driver, which makes sense and is what our thesis is formed on, yet it’s good to see the CEO emphasize this: “And so I think that for us, we'd just like to see the market go faster sooner because the scale-up opportunity represents a significant increase in TAM really over the next two to five years.”

  • Optical DSPs and LROs: Credo foresees expanding their TAM beyond copper with the goal of doubling optical revenue in FY26. Management hinted they plan to release more products for optical networking at the system-level and 800G LROs. There was also mention of improving the connection between GPUs and memory as a greenfield they plan to go after.  
  • Ethernet Retimers and PCIe Retimers: Credo has recently expanded into PCIe solutions for AI networking which they stated significantly broadens TAM ahead of the shift to 200G per lane scale-up architectures. These products are called Toucan and Magpie. 

During the Q&A, the CEO stated the PCIe scale-up opportunity was a bigger opportunity than Ethernet scale-up: “Yes. I would say that the near-term opportunity for us to scale up is really with the PCIe protocol as we see the market moving from PCIe Gen 5 to Gen 6. We do see that AECs will represent a really nice opportunity, both for intra-rack as well as rack-to-rack as scale-up goes row scale”

Conclusion: 

We had stated in our Nvidia earnings write-up that the QoQ growth in Nvidia's networking segment should spell good things for I/O Fund members who hold Credo and Astera Labs. So far, so good in terms of the read-through. 

What is unique about Credo is not only the hypergrowth that flows effortlessly to the bottom line, but that by my estimation, we are still very early to this trend. I recently said in an interview that networking is what defines the current generation of GPUs, and certainly Credo’s report supports this takeaway.  

Typically, I’d be concerned a company like Credo is hitting peak growth, and there could be lumpy quarters; however, management spent a good deal of time on the earnings call going over why Credo is doing so well and why Credo will continue to do well from both a product differentiation standpoint (AECs are in high demand over traditional copper and optical solutions) but also how they plan to expand to meet the fluid needs of intra-rack and rack-to-rack architectures.  

This marks the final week of a busy earnings season for the I/O Fund, and Credo saved the best for last. The company continues to hold a prime spot at the top of our aggressive buy list.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own shares in CRDO at the time of writing and may own stocks pictured in the charts.

Recommended Reading:

  • Dell Q2: Exceptional AI Growth yet AI Margins Miss the Mark
  • Nvidia Q2: Guidance for Q3 Saved the Day; $10T Market Cap Prediction Revisited
  • Coherent Q4: Data Center Growth Slowing QoQ; Competitive Concerns
  • Free Bitcoin & Broad Market Webinar Replay – August 21, 2025
Posted in AI Stocks, Data CenterLeave a Comment on Credo’s Hypergrowth Intact as 274% YoY Growth Leads to Massive Bottom Line Expansion

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