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Category: Semiconductor Stocks

TSMC Q4 2024 Earnings Preview: Revenue beat estimates

Posted on January 14, 2025June 30, 2026 by io-fund

TSMC recently released its December monthly revenue, which grew by a robust 57.8% YoY and 0.8% MoM to NT$278.16 billion. The fourth quarter revenue grew 38.8% YoY to NT$868.5 billion, beating the LSEG estimates of NT$854.7 billion.

In US dollar terms, Q4 revenue grew 36.9% YoY to $26.85 billion using the average exchange rate of $1=NT$32.34. We will get the official USD figures when the company releases its full results on January 16th. This suggests that the company’s revenue will come at the high-end guidance of $26.1 billion to $26.9 billion and beat the mid-point guide of $26.5 billion.

The strong December quarter revenue suggests that AI demand will continue in 2025. Recently, Foxconn also beat estimates with record fourth-quarter revenue driven by AI demand. Revenue grew by 15.2% YoY to NT$2.13 trillion, beating estimates of NT$2.1 trillion. Foxconn management said, “Robust AI server demand led to strong revenue growth for its cloud and networking products division.”

The revenue beat of TSMC and Foxconn provides further hope to investors that AI demand is not slowing down in 2025. TSMC is a major beneficiary of surging demand for AI chips, holding over 90% market share in manufacturing advanced AI processors. Increased investments from Big Tech is further expected to drive AI growth; for example, Microsoft recently announced plans to invest approximately $80 billion in AI-enabled data centers in FY2025, a significant increase from the $55.7 billion capex in FY2024.

Investors will be closely watching the comments from the management on the broader semiconductor market for 2025 since TSMC has better insights than any other company as the world’s leading foundry.

Revenue

Strong revenue growth is expected in the coming quarters due to robust demand for AI and smartphone chips. Over the past few quarters, revenue estimates have risen — 4.9 percentage points for Q4 2024 and 6.1 percentage points for Q1 2025 — indicating analysts’ confidence in the company’s ability to maintain growth.

  • Management’s guide for the fourth quarter is between $26.1 billion to $26.9 billion, representing YoY growth of 35.1% and 12.8% QoQ at the midpoint. Based on the monthly TWD figures, Q4 revenue grew 36.9% YoY to $26.85 billion using the average exchange rate of $1=NT32.34. We will get the official USD figures when the company releases its full results on January 16th.
  • Q3 revenue grew 36% YoY and 12.9% QoQ to $23.5 billion, driven by strong demand for AI and smartphone chips.

C.C. Wei, Vice Chairman and CEO, said in the earnings call, “Moving into fourth quarter, we expect our business to continue to be supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies. We continue to observe extremely robust AI-related demand from our customers throughout the second half of 2024, leading to increasing overall capacity utilization rate for our leading-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer process technologies.”

Due to its technological leadership, TSMC can capture robust demand for the most advanced AI chips. The revenue contribution from server AI processors is expected to triple this year and will account for a mid-teens percentage of 2024 revenue. Management guided for full year 2024 revenue to grow close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms and calculating using the recent monthly figures suggest revenue to grow 29.9% YoY to $90 billion, rebounding significantly from a decline of (-8.7%) for 2023.

Morgan Stanley expects TSMC to provide a conservative annual sales growth guide of low 20% in dollar terms for 2025 at the beginning of the year, with a potential to raise throughout the year as the company did in 2024.

Margins

While many companies face the issue of rising costs, TSMC has demonstrated resilience by effectively managing expenses. Through a combination of cost control measures, negotiating better prices with its customers, and leveraging economies of scale, TSMC has maintained strong profitability. The company's leadership position in the foundry industry further solidifies its competitive advantage.

According to an Economic Daily News report, TSMC plans to increase prices for advanced nodes by 5% to 10% in 2025. The price increase to customers will help to allay investor fears on rising costs from shifting of manufacturing processes outside of Taiwan due to geopolitical risks, increasing electricity prices in Taiwan, inflationary cost pressures, and initial higher costs involved in the ramp-up phase of advanced node manufacturing.

  • Management guided Q4 gross margin to increase 20 basis points sequentially to 58% at the midpoint, up significantly from 53% in the same period last year, driven by higher capacity utilization and cost controls, partially offset by dilution from N3 ramp, higher electricity prices in Taiwan, and N5 to N3 tool conversion cost.
  • Operating margins are expanding, helped by operating leverage. Management’s guide for Q4 is 47.5% at the midpoint compared to 41.6% in the same period last year.
  • Q3 net income grew by 52.4% YoY to $10.06 billion or 42.8% of revenue compared to 38.6% in the same period last year.

EPS

Q3 EPS grew by 50.4% YoY to $1.94, driven by better capacity utilization, cost improvement, and operating leverage. EPS is projected to rise significantly in the coming quarters and analysts have raised estimates indicating greater confidence in the company’s ability to grow its bottom line.

  • Analysts expect Q4 EPS to grow 54.9% YoY to $2.23, up from 35.4% expected growth in mid-October, and Q1 EPS to grow 49.5% YoY to $2.06, up from 26.1% expected growth in mid-October.
  • Looking further out, analysts expect 2025 EPS to grow 32.1% YoY to $9.27 and 16.1% YoY to $10.76 in 2026.

Cash Flows and Balance Sheet

The company’s financial stability is evident due to its strong cash flows, with operating cash flows increasing 30.3% and free cash flows by 166% in Q3. The foundry industry is capital-intensive, and this is why you will notice a wide difference between operating cash flows and free cash flows for the company.

  • Q3 operating cash flow was $12.13 billion or 51.6% of revenue compared to $9.31 billion or 54% of revenue in the same period last year.
  • Free cash flow grew by 166% YoY to $5.72 billion or 24.4% of revenue compared to 12% of revenue in the same period last year. Capex was down (-9.9%) YoY to $6.4 billion.
  • Management expects capex to be slightly higher than $30 billion for 2024, revised down slightly from the previous guide of $30 billion to $32 billion. About 70% to 80% will be allocated for advanced process technologies, 10% to 20% for specialty technologies, and 10% for advanced packaging, testing, mask making, and others.
  • As the company continues to invest due to the strong expected AI growth, capex is likely to increase in 2025, and management mentioned that they will provide more details during the January earnings call.
  • Cash and marketable securities were $68.5 billion and debt of $30.6 billion, compared to $63.05 billion and $30.4 billion in Q2.

Revenue by Platform

As the leading foundry for AI accelerators, TSMC is riding the enormous wave of demand from Big Tech. The chipmaker’s high-performance computing (HPC) revenues rose 11% QoQ to $11.99 billion in Q3 and accounted for 51% of revenue, surpassing the 50% mark for the second time.

TSMC is immensely benefiting from the AI spending of Big Tech companies.  The company has more than 90% market share in manufacturing advanced AI chips. Microsoft also recently outlined its plan to invest about $80 billion primarily in AI-enabled data centers in FY2025, up from $55.7 billion capex in FY2024. This substantial investment underscores the growing importance of AI and bodes well for TSMC's continued dominance in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing sector.

As seen in the chart below, HPC revenue has grown sequentially each quarter in 2024 to reach a record $11.99 billion in Q3.

Smartphone grew by 16% sequentially and accounted for 34% of revenue from 33% of revenue in Q2.

Internet of Things revenue grew by 35% sequentially and accounted for 7% of revenue.

Automotive revenue grew by 6% sequentially and accounted for 5% of revenue. Digital Consumer Electronics decreased by 19% and accounted for 1% of revenue; others grew by 8% to account for 2% of revenue.

Revenue by Technology

The most advanced node in production today is the 3-nanometer process technology. Volume production for 2-nanometer is expected in 2025 and should have a meaningful revenue contribution in the first half of 2026.

According to the MoneyDJ report, TSMC has initiated the setup of a pilot production line for its 2-nanometer process at its Hsinchu Baoshan fab in Taiwan, with an initial monthly capacity of 3,000 to 3,500 wafers. By the end of 2025, TSMC expects to significantly expand its 2nm production capacity to over 50,000 wafers per month, including the contributions from its Kaohsiung fab in Taiwan. By the end of 2026, TSMC is expected to further increase its 2nm monthly capacity to 120,000 to 130,000 wafers, suggesting strong demand for the 2nm chips. TSMC's 2nm node is expected to provide 15% better performance and 35% better energy efficiency than its 3nm node. Apple is expected to be the first customer to use 2-nanometer process technology.

Advanced nodes are defined as 7-nanometer and below. These nodes accounted for 69% of wafer revenue in Q3 compared to 67% in Q2.

  • In Q3 2024, 3-nanometer process technology contributed 20% of wafer revenue, while 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 32% and 17%, respectively.

Other Points to Watch

Advanced Packaging

Advanced packaging demand is strong and will account for high single-digit revenue this year. According to Economic Daily News, TSMC’s monthly CoWoS capacity could reach 75,000 wafers in 2025, nearly doubling 2024 levels. Due to the strong demand, primarily from Nvidia, the construction of CoWoS facilities time has been shortened to 1.5 years from the previous three to five years.

Overseas Fabs

The company is expanding its fabs overseas to reduce geopolitical risks. TSMC began producing 4-nanometer chips in Arizona fab, United States Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo told Reuters. Earlier in November the US government had also finalized the Chips Act incentive with the company and it is expected to get up to $6.6 billion in grants and $5 billion in loans. TSMC’s second Arizona fab is expected to feature the N3 and N2 processes and is expected to be operational in 2028.

According to TrendForce, the first fab in Arizona will have an initial capacity of 20K wafers per month by year-end. TSMC is also in talks with Nvidia about producing its Blackwell chips at the Arizona plant; these chips are currently manufactured in Taiwan. However, these Blackwell chips will still need to be shipped back to Taiwan since the Arizona facility does not have CoWoS packaging capability. If the contract is finalized, Nvidia will be the third customer for the Arizona plant after Apple and AMD

According to Nikkie report, TSMC’s first plant in Japan will start mass-producing chips by the end of the year. The first fab is expected to produce less advanced chips. The company is also planning a second fab that could produce 6-nanometer and 12-nanometer chips, and is also discussing to build a third fab in Japan that could make advanced 3-nanometer chips.

Trade Wars

Due to its limited China exposure (about 12% of revenue) and the strong global demand for AI chips, TSMC is better positioned to mitigate any potential disruptions from the US-China trade war.

Valuation

The company trades at a P/E ratio of 32.3 and a forward P/E ratio of 22.3. The P/S ratio is 12.6 and a forward P/S ratio of 9.5. In the last five years, the P/E ratio peaked at 41.8 in February 2021 and hit a low of 10.3 in November 2022. The stock is now trading above its five-year average P/E ratio of 24.4.

Conclusion

TSMC plays a crucial role in the success of many leading AI companies, including Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Marvell, and Qualcomm, as it is their primary supplier of advanced semiconductor chips and has more than 90% market share manufacturing advanced AI processors. Given the continued growth of the AI economy, TSMC's importance in the semiconductor industry is expected to further increase.

Royston Roche, Equity Analyst at the I/O Fund, contributed to this article.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

Recommended Reading:

  • Coherent: Key Nvidia Supplier for Optical Networking Components
  • Micron Q1: Data Center Revenue Surges 40% QoQ but Consumer Weak
  • Marvell Q3 Earnings: Strong Sequential Growth; Expanded AWS Partnership
  • Dell Q3: AI Server Pipeline up 50% QoQ, Yet PCs Soft
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Coherent: Key Nvidia Supplier for Optical Networking Components

Posted on December 27, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Coherent supplies components for datacom transceivers and for optical interconnects. Transceivers and optical interconnects convert electrical signals into optical signals for fiber optic networks within the data center. Traditionally, optical links have been used for compute and storage servers, yet AI/ML servers are driving an increase in demand for the optical interconnects and transceivers that Coherent supplies.

Transceiver speed has been growing with the highest data rates ranging from 100G to 200G to 400G. AI servers are driving a market for 800G data rates, which are shipping in production now, and 1.6T rates, which are shipping in 2025. We’ve been covering these AI-driven upgrades around optical networking in our Marvell write-up and Semtech write-upwrite-up and Semtech write-up.

Coherent’s transceivers work with both Ethernet or InfiniBand, as well as proprietary protocols such as Nvidia’s NVLink and Nvidia’s interconnect chips NVSwitch. The company has stated that their 100ZR pluggable transceivers can upgrade old 10GBps Ethernet links with 100 GBps at the optical network edge, representing a 10X upgrade.

Coherent designs and manufactures the components, such as lasers, detectors and passive optics. Manufacturing the components (as opposed to buying them) is a strength as the company has supply chain resiliency by controlling the end-to-end process, and the manufacturing takes place primarily in the United States with some in Europe. Notably, the discussion as to where AI chips and their components are manufactured is setting up to become a hot topic come 2025.

Overview of Coherent’s Products:

Last quarter, Coherent’s networking revenue increased 12% sequentially and 61% year-over-year to $763 million. The strong growth was led by the AI-related datacom segment, which grew 16% sequentially and 89% year-over-year. The company has seen strong rebounds in this segment since September of last year, partly due to being a supplier for Nvidia’s NVLink and InfiniBand. Coherent also supplies components for Ethernet networking.

Coherent provides laser technologies for 100-gig to 400-gig, plus the AI-centric 800-gig optics and the AI-centric 1.6T optics. Of these, the 800-gig is the primary interconnect for AI deployments with 1.6T shipping in 2025. Artificial intelligence and machine learning drive demand for the 800-gig PAM to increase the speed of input-output and to process the data flows. This doubles the throughput (bandwidth) due to an 8x100Gpbs optical transceiver for inside and between AI clusters.

Marvell was first to launch the 1.6T solution 5nm and 3nm with 200-gig per lane for both. The highly newly launched 1.6T 3nm optical DSPs will reduce power consumption, something that Blackwell is breaking the upper limits of with an estimated 140kW per rack. Right now, any component that lowers power consumption will be in high demand come Q1-Q2. Coherent is expected to launch their solution next year, per the earnings call: “Having delivered initial samples in the preceding quarter, we continue to expect to begin ramping sales of 1.6T datacom transceivers in calendar 2025.”

Although Marvell and Broadcom are the two that first come to mind when discussing PAM4-based networking and DSPs, it’s important to remember that Nvidia is a leader in AI networking in their own right. Last quarter, Nvidia reported networking revenue of $3.13 billion while Broadcom most recently reported AI revenue of $3.7 billion for the quarter. If we remove the $300 million for custom silicon, Broadcom reported $3.4 billion in AI networking. Nvidia is a newcomer to the field following the acquisition of Mellanox in 2019.

Coherent supplied content is likely to increase with Nvidia as Blackwell is a catalyst for this partnership. With the upcoming release of Blackwell, NVLink speeds will double from the fourth-generation to the fifth-generation. We pointed out a few months back the significance of NVLink’s fifth-generation as it’s the most important generational leap to-date for Nvidia’s networking products:

“NVLink Switch is a major component to the Blackwell upgrade. Fifth-generation NVLink enables multi-GPU communication at high speed, reaching 1.8 TB/s bidirectional throughput or 14X the bandwidth of PCIe for a single GPU.

For the NVL72 systems, NVLink Switch can reach 130 TB/second, which is “more than the aggregate bandwidth of the internet.” Therefore, it’s the compute and the communication capabilities of the upcoming GB200 release that are important to consider. The 72 GPUs in the NVL72 can be used as a single accelerator for 1.4 exaflops of AI compute power.”130 TB/second, which is “more than the aggregate bandwidth of the internet.” Therefore, it’s the compute and the communication capabilities of the upcoming GB200 release that are important to consider. The 72 GPUs in the NVL72 can be used as a single accelerator for 1.4 exaflops of AI compute power.”

The result is that the GB200 will deliver a 30X speedup for 1 trillion­­+ parameter models by leveraging FP4 precision and fifth-generation NVLink. The NVL72 rack-scale systems are exascale computers that will contain up to 5,000 NVLink cables for up to 2 miles of networking.

To put it simply, Nvidia is set to report roughly $200 billion in AI systems revenue next year (we think it’ll be higher than this), with the GB200 systems driving a surge in demand for Nvidia’s in-house networking solutions. There is no other player in the ballpark or zip code of this AI accelerator revenue, and thus, this year will offer a unique opportunity for Nvidia to greatly increase its networking segment driven the scale-out and scale-up of GPUs. That is to say, the 4.5X to 9X increase in systems from 8 GPUs to 36 GPUs or 72 GPUs, plus the scale-out toward clusters with 100,000-GPUs and eventually million-plus GPUs.

Below are a few products that Coherent offers that are set to benefit.

Coherent’s AI-Related Products:

Coherent has a highly technical suite of hardware products. To streamline the discussion, I’ll focus on the three product lines that management calls out as major contributors to the rebound in its AI-related datacom segment (part of the larger networking segment).

  • Next-generation transceiver technologies, such as VCSELs, EMLs and CW lasers for silicon photonics – reported in the networking segment
  • Datacom optical switch platform – reported in the datacom segment
  • Data center interconnects (DCIs) – not part of the AI segment, rather this is reported in the telecom segment.

Next-Generation Transceivers:

Last quarter, Coherent’s networking revenue increased 12% sequentially and 61% year-over-year to $763 million.

VCSELs: >100 meters Distance:

Vertical Cavity Surfacing Emitting Lasers (VCSELs) are for link distances of less than 100 meters. As Coherent explains, these are the lowest-cost, lowest power consumption solution. In March, the company announced its 200G VCSELs that replace the oxide-aperture with a lithographic-aperture. When combined with a DSP, the 200G VCSELs allow for a 1.6T multimode optical transceiver for AI, high-performance computing (HPC) and networking applications.

Silicon Photonics >100m: Nvidia to Launch SiPho Product H2 2025

For distances greater than 100m, silicon photonics-based transceivers are used. We wrote about silicon photonics previously before Nvidia Hopper had shipped in volume. Back in early 2023, an article from Next Platform discussed the previous generation of GPUs, where the NVSwitch fabric on the DGX-A100 systems has “a range of about 300 centimeters and moves data at 8 picojoules per bit. The goal is silicon photonics to do it at half the energy and boost the range to as far as 100 meters between devices.”

Coherent recently announced a continuous wave (CW) InP laser for silicon photonics that “are on the forward edge of data transmission technology, crucially addressing the explosive bandwidth demands brought on by the rapid adoption of machine learning networks within AI-driven data centers.” According to the press release, Coherent’s CW lasers will result in 15% better power efficiency and are more reliable due to eliminating aluminum.

The first CW laser to launch was in September of 2024 with a higher-power laser for cooled operations launching in 2025. The press release cited that production capacity is expanding 500% over the next two years: “And with our upcoming expansion to a state-of-the-art 6-inch InP fab in Sherman, Texas, by 2026, we expect production capacity to be 5x our current production rate, a significant ramp given the complexity of this material.”

At the end of September, Coherent demonstrated a new 1.6T-DR8 transceiver module running a 5nm Nvidia chip. The SiPho product, or silicon photonics product, will read and write data at the speed of 1.6Tbps. The initial reaction from analysts is that this product will become more impactful at the end of 2025, taking up to 10% to 20% of the market in 2026, pointing toward Nvidia customers Microsoft, Coreweave and Lambda as being names that would drive the sales come 2026.

EML Lasers:

Electro-absorption modulated lasers (EMLs) help to enable the 200G per lane transmission, which is enabling the 1.6TBps data rate. In the future, it is likely AI networking will expand to a 3.2TBps data rate. The EML device that Coherent supplies offers signal integrity for 200G optical transmission due to the wide bandwidth of the modulator and on-chip integrated radio frequency (RF) termination.

EMLs were traditionally used by telecom customers, yet became attractive for AI servers due to meeting the 200G per second speeds necessary to support AI models and capabilities for 1.6T optical modules. EMLs are more expensive than CW lasers for silicon photonics, with 1.6T SiPho being the more popular choice. Where four EML lasers are required to run 1.6T, two less-expensive CW lasers are needed to run four channels with a silicon photonics module.

Coherent’s press releases point toward EML lasers becoming more impactful with the push toward reading and writing data at 3.2TB per second speeds.

When asked on the call which product will be most influential at 1.6TB ramps, Coherent’s management was declined to state it would be primarily SiPho, rather stating it would be a mix of all three:

Q: “[…] And then if you think that the world is kind of ramping on 1.6T, do you guys see kind of more of a silicon photonics world or an EML world as that 1.6T ramp?”

A: “[…] We look at it as we'll deploy whatever the best technology is for the benefit of the customer and the application that we're trying to drive. So, whether that's an EML, a VCSEl, or silicon photonics, we're developing all of those different options and we'll deploy whatever technology is strongest to create the biggest differentiation for our products and the biggest benefit for our customers. So, that's kind of the approach that we take to the technology. And I think we've got the broadest set of technology options of certainly any of our peers and competitors. So, I think that's a real competitive strength for us.”

Datacom Optical Switch Platform (OCS Switch):

Optical current switches are a new kind of switch for AI clusters that handles the switching optically instead of using transceivers to convert photons to electrons, and back again. According to the earnings call, “Our differentiated switch is based on our highly reliable solid-state liquid crystal technology and was recognized at ECOC '24 with the Best Product Award for data center innovation. We've shipped sample units to key strategic customers and we expect to begin ramping revenue in calendar 2025.”

According to a Dell’Oro analyst, optical switches are a new kind of switch that offers high bandwidth, low latency and are less expensive to operate. Per Coherent: “this kind of optical switching tends to be more reliable – something that will pay dividends in very larger clusters in which mean time to failure tends to be quite low.”

At Hot Chips 2023, Google’s TPU group technical lead, Andy Swing, explained that Google has been able to “switch together very large quantities of AI accelerators” in pods with 64 TPUs. According to Google, the optical circuit switch results in a sizable boost in network bandwidth and can be reconfigured if a node fails. It doesn’t take much imagination to consider other hyperscalers are likely to follow in Google’s footsteps by using an OCS switch as cluster sizes for AI accelerators are set to increase. 

Datacom Interconnects (DCIs):

For long distance transmission, Coherent offers data center interconnects (DCIs). This can range up to hundreds of kilometers. There was a recent press announcement that Marvell, Lumentum and Coherent worked on optical modules with transmission links of up to 500km.

DCIs are recognized under the telecom segment, which saw growth of 9% sequentially and 17% year-over-year. Within this, management stated: “We are definitely seeing strong demand signals in DCI, right? And obviously, that's only a portion of the telecom market, but we are seeing very strong demand signals there.”

Financials:

Coherent’s Q1 FY2025 revenue grew by 28% YoY to $1.35 billion, beating estimates by 2.4%. Revenue accelerated by 18.9 percentage points from the 9.1% growth reported in the June quarter. The strong growth was primarily led by AI-related datacom revenue, which grew 16% sequentially and 89% YoY.

Management has guided FQ2 revenue of $1.37 billion, representing 21.1% YoY growth at the midpoint. Analysts expect growth to sustain 15.6% YoY growth to $1.40 billion in FQ3.

Looking further out, analysts expect FY2025 ending in June revenue to grow 17.9% YoY to $5.55 billion and 11.2% YoY to $6.17 billion in FY2026.

Revenue by End Market:

Communications

Communications end market FQ1 revenue grew by 68% YoY and 14% sequential growth to $774 million. It is the largest end market and constitutes 57.4% of total revenue. Revenue accelerated by 49 percentage points from 19% growth in FQ4. The strong growth was led by datacom and telecom revenue.

FQ1 datacom revenue grew by 89% YoY and 16% sequentially due to strong AI data center demand. The company witnessed a continued ramp for 800-G transceivers, benefitting from the increased number of customers ramping 800-G transceivers. Management expects strong growth in 800-G transceivers to continue in the coming quarter with revenue from 1.6T transceivers starting to ramp in CY2025. The company delivered initial samples of 1.6T transceivers in FQ4.

Telecom revenue grew by 17% YoY and 9% sequentially, primarily due to end market improvement and the ramp of the company’s new products, namely 100G ZR and 400G ZR+ Coherent transceivers. Although management expects the telecom end market to remain weak in the near term, they expect a ramp in revenue from these new products over FY2025. Overall, they expect the communications market to be a long-term growth driver for the company.

Industrial

The industrial end market is the second largest end market and constitutes 30.2% of revenue. The industrial end market grew by 1% YoY and down (-6%) QoQ to $407 million. Revenue decelerated from 5% growth in FQ4 as the strength in display capital equipment was offset by the weakness in the precision manufacturing. The company faced demand headwinds in the precision manufacturing, mirroring broader industry trends. However, despite the near-term weakness, management “expects the industrial market to be a long-term growth driver for the company as the end markets recover and as our new products continue to ramp.”

Instrumentation

The Instrumentation end market constitutes only a small 6.8% of total revenue. FQ1 revenue was down (-8%) YoY and (-10%) sequentially to $91 million.

Electronics

The Electronics end market also constitutes only a small 5.6% of total revenue. FQ1 revenue was down (-16%) YoY and (-27%) QoQ to $76 million.

Segments

  • Networking FQ1 revenue reported strong growth of 61% YoY and 12% sequentially to $763 million due to the AI data center demand. Revenue accelerated from 16% growth in FQ4.
  • Lasers segment revenue increased 4% YoY and down (-2%) QoQ to $348 million. Revenue decelerated from 7% growth in FQ4.
  • Materials segment FQ1 revenue was down (-3%) YoY and (-15%) QoQ to $237 million.

Margins

Margins are expanding yet they remain low compared to other semiconductor companies, and this will remain a predominant concern with Coherent. Management has set a goal of achieving a consistent adjusted gross margin level of above 40% and has two important initiatives: pricing optimization in the industrial business (includes industrial end market, instrumentation, and electronics) and product cost reductions for the datacom transceiver business.

Per the earnings call:

“[…] And I do see opportunity to do a much better job of optimizing the pricing of the [industrial] products and capturing what I would say — what I would call is the fair value for the technology and the innovation that we're bringing to those industrial markets.

Now, in pricing in the datacom transceiver space, there I think there's, I would say, there's not as much opportunity on the pricing side. But what I would say is, but there's definitely opportunity on the product cost side. And that's one of the examples I gave earlier on the call is on product costs within transceivers. And I highlighted, I believe this on the last earnings call, yields as definitely an opportunity. And Sherri and I, as I said earlier, we're in an operational review this morning, spending time talking to the team about yields, the improvements that they've driven over the past few months, and what we need to see in terms of yield improvements moving forward as well. And that is definitely an area of focus for us. So, I would — back to your datacom transceiver question in particular, I would say maybe not so much on pricing, but definitely there's opportunity for us in cost and we're certainly very focused on that.”

  • FQ1 gross margin improved five percentage points YoY to 34.1%. Adjusted gross margin improved 2.9 percentage points YoY to 37.7%, primarily helped by higher revenue, favorable product mix, and yield improvements.
  • Management has guided for an adjusted gross margin of 37% at the midpoint for FQ2 compared to 36% in the same period last year. The CFO provided more clarity during the earnings call Q&A on the gross margins and assured to provide more details before the Investor Day in May 2025 on its plan to achieve the long-term goal of above 40% gross margins.

“When we look at Q2, the guide for Q2, that is a range, right, 36% to 38%, it is a range, and there can certainly be fluctuation on a quarterly basis with respect to gross margin. But we did talk about, last quarter; Jim mentioned that we launched our gross margin expansion strategy which includes product pricing optimization, as well as product cost reduction. And so that's an area where we're going to focus on because we want to achieve a long-term gross margin of greater than 40%, and so that's really how to think about what our goal is for our long-term gross margin.”

  • FQ1 operating margin improved significantly to 5.6% from (-2%) in the same period last year. Adjusted operating margin improved 4.7 percentage points YoY to 17.3%. Management guide for the next quarter is 16.2%. Even though the guide is down sequentially, it is up from 15.2% in the same period last year.
  • The operating margin is expected to improve along with the gross margins in the long term. The company is prioritizing its R&D investments in the growth areas and divesting non-profitable businesses. Another key takeaway from the earnings call is the CEO’s comment, “I just want to reiterate what I said in the prepared remarks that even though the overall non-strategic category is a relatively small part of our revenue, again, it is dilutive to our operating margins.”
  • Net income was $25.9 million or 1.9% of revenue compared to a net loss of (-$67.5) million or (-6.4%) of revenue in the same period last year. Adjusted net income was $149.7 million or 11.1% of revenue compared to $55 million or 5.2% of revenue in the same period last year.

EPS

Coherent has strong EPS growth. Analysts expect EPS growth to continue going forward, and there is potential for further upgrades to the EPS estimates due to the new CEO’s streamlining/restructuring plan.

  • FQ1 adjusted EPS grew by 357% YoY to $0.74, primarily helped by operating leverage, favorable product mix, improvement in yield, product price optimization, and product cost reductions.
  • Analysts expect adjusted EPS to grow 86.3% YoY to $0.67 and 43.2% YoY to $0.76 in the subsequent two quarters.
  • Looking further out, analysts expect the adjusted EPS for FY2025 ending June to grow 80.5% YoY to $3.01 and 45.1% YoY to $4.37 for FY2026.
  • Jefferies analyst believes that the new CEO’s streamlining and cost reduction initiatives could potentially double the adjusted EPS from the current about $3.0 to as much as $6.40 annual EPS in 2026.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: 2.4X Debt Leverage

Operating cash flow margins have been hovering around 10% of revenue and are expected to improve with higher revenue and profits in the coming quarters.

  • FQ1 operating cash flow was $152.98 million or 11.4% of revenue compared to 18.9% in the same period last year. The operating cash flow margin was in line with the full year operating cash flow margin of 11.6% for FY2024 and 12.3% for FY2023.
  • FQ1 free cash flow was $61 million or 4.5% of revenue compared to 13% in the same period last year. The free cash flow margin was in line with the full year free cash flow margin of 4.2% for FY2024 and 3.8% for FY2023.
  • Cash was $1.02 billion; debt was $3.99 billion compared to $926 million and $4.1 billion at the end of FQ4.
  • During FQ1, the company repaid $118 million in debt from the cash from operations and proceeds from the sale of the Newton Aycliffe fabrication facility. The sale is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to streamline operations.
  • With the $118 million debt repayment, the company has reduced the debt leverage ratio to 2.4x, and debt reduction will continue to be the priority for the management.

Divestment

The company is looking to divest or shut down non-strategic product lines and assets. The company recently sold the Newton Aycliffe fabrication facility in the UK. The proceeds from the sale of the facility were used to repay debt and will also help to reduce the overhead expenses and interest expenses.

Similarly, it is looking for strategic alternatives for the battery technology business. Although the business accounts for a small percentage of revenue, it is dilutive to the company’s margins. It will allow the company to focus on investments that have better returns on investments, such as the AI data center transceiver business. The management is expected to provide more updates in the coming months and during the Investor Day in May 2025. The company might also divest the silicon carbide business, in which Denso and Mitsubishi Electric have a 25% non-controlling stake.

New Management from Lattice Semiconductor:

Jim Anderson was appointed CEO of Coherent Corp. and a member of the Board of Directors on June 3, 2024. He previously served as CEO of Lattice Semiconductor Corporation since September 2018. Prior to joining Lattice, Mr. Anderson served as the Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Computing and Graphics Business Group at AMD.

Jim, who is credited for bringing about a turnaround in Lattice Semiconductor, is also expected to repeat his success at Coherent along with the new CFO Sherri Luther. The company appointed Sherri Luther as CFO on Oct 11, 2024. Prior to that, she was the CFO of Lattice Semiconductor since 2019. Prior to joining Lattice in 2019, she worked at Coherent for 16 years, including as Corporate Vice President of Finance.

Commentary from FQ1 2025 Earnings Call:

800-Gig drove the Revenue Beat, 1.6T Shipping in 2025:

There were questions as to where the upside from the quarter came from, given the top line and sizable 20%+ bottom-line beat. As noted, there was sizable growth in the datacom transceiver business of 16% QoQ growth and 89% YoY growth. The CEO points out customer breadth is expanding on the 800G product.

Q: Simon Leopold, Raymond James: “[…] And I guess what I'm trying to understand is where was the, really, upside surprise this quarter, was it really 800 gig and above or was there more strength from the more traditional products below — 400-gig and below, did that provide any upside or was it all coming from the higher performance? Thank you.”

A: Jim Anderson, CEO: “We did see sequential growth there [400-gig and under speeds]. That was very nice to see. When you look across the customer base, customers are at different stages of adopting the different transceiver speeds. So, we still have customers that are doing significant volume on 400G and below as well. And so, it's really a mix of different transceiver speeds.

And then, back on 800-gig, I would say, look, we're really pleased with the ramp, the overall ramp of our 800-gig transceivers. And then, the other color I would add is that one of the things I'm really pleased to see is the breadth of customers that we have. The number of customers that are ramping 800-gig has significantly increased. If I look like a year ago, it was only maybe a couple customers. Now, we have many customers ramping 800-gig. So, there's a much bigger diversity of revenue streams underneath that 800-gig ramp. And we do expect 800-gig to continue to grow over the coming quarters as well.”

Although the customer breadth has grown with 800-gig, it was stated on the call the 1.6T will launch with a customer breadth that is smaller and matches the start of the 800-gig.

Supply Constraints Could be a Catalyst for Coherent:

There were three questions on the call from three separate analysts about potential supply constraint in lasers, with two analysts calling out the supply constraint being specifically with EMLs: “certainly on the EML side as we're hearing about constraints, et cetera, as you think about '25 and '26?”

The CEO pointed out this is an area incremental strength for Coherent as they make most of their parts internally (which is quite rare) yet will source when the demand requires it. The CEO also pointed out their breadth of technologies helps to meet demand if there were to be a shortage in a specific laser, such as EML.

Here are a few statements from the CEO that addressed Coherent having an advantage by building their own products in a fairly crowded market of networking components:

“On that first area of technology roadmap, I think our customers really recognize the breadth and the depth of the technology portfolio that we can bring to bear, specially in the optical networking space, where we don't just assemble the modules, but we build a lot of the ingredient components that go into the module; the lasers, whether they're VCSELs, EMLs for silicon photonics that we design, or a lot of the other ingredients that go into those modules […] and then, our verticalized structure could be a real advantage, especially in a very fast ramp situation, which we're in right now with our datacenter customers. When demand is increasing very quickly, it's really important to have that verticalized strategy and structure that we have, because I think that's really allowed us to supply them in a really reliable.”

This statement was reiterated a few times, which is that Coherent’s advantage lies within the breadth of the technologies they offer alongside the capability to build internally.

United States Domiciled:

The discussions around supply constraints potentially helping Coherent as the company builds its own products are further supported by the fact Coherent components are primarily manufactured in the United States, with some in Europe. The company has plans to expand its presence in the United States with a 6-inch InP wafer fab in Sherman Texas. According to an announcement last week, Coherent was awarded $33 million from the United States CHIPS act to support the expansion of the Texas facility.

Competitors:

According to the 10-K, the company “had one customer who contributed more than 10% of revenue during fiscal 2024.” This is understood to be Nvidia. Yet, B.Riley downgraded the stock due to Nvidia seeking more suppliers for the 1.6T products, with the analyst note naming Eoptolink, Innolight and Fabrinet as notable competitors.

Conclusion:

If you had “reading about AI networking components” on your Christmas list, then consider yourself in luck. The I/O Fund is leaving no stone unturned in delivering a full hardware stack analysis on what’s to come in 2025 as AI systems increase in complexity. Although we saw some outliers in AI software this year, we continue to foresee 2025 to be the year for AI hardware – far more so previous years. This goes back to how the Blackwell systems are being built, by scaling out 4-9X, and also requiring new components to handle the surge in AI server power consumption.

Of course, with every great opportunity, there comes some element of risk. The clear risk to semiconductors are tariffs with rumors that Chinese tariffs could be as high as 60% on imports from this region.  This would technically be a tailwind for Coherent — a key Nvidia supplier as we go into 2025 that would not only circumvent the majority of tariffs but potentially come out on top.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

Additional Readings:

  • Semtech: Fiber Optics and Copper (ACC) AI Networking Components
  • Vertiv: AI Data Center and Direct Liquid Cooling Stock; Nvidia Supplier
  • Marvell Q3 Earnings: Strong Sequential Growth; Expanded AWS Partnership
  • Optical Interconnects Overview: Strong Growth Expected Ahead
Posted in Ai Platforms, Semiconductor StocksLeave a Comment on Coherent: Key Nvidia Supplier for Optical Networking Components

Coherent: Key Nvidia Supplier for Optical Networking Components

Posted on December 27, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Coherent supplies components for datacom transceivers and for optical interconnects. Transceivers and optical interconnects convert electrical signals into optical signals for fiber optic networks within the data center. Traditionally, optical links have been used for compute and storage servers, yet AI/ML servers are driving an increase in demand for the optical interconnects and transceivers that Coherent supplies.

Transceiver speed has been growing with the highest data rates ranging from 100G to 200G to 400G. AI servers are driving a market for 800G data rates, which are shipping in production now, and 1.6T rates, which are shipping in 2025. We’ve been covering these AI-driven upgrades around optical networking in our Marvell write-up and Semtech write-upwrite-up and Semtech write-up.

Coherent’s transceivers work with both Ethernet or InfiniBand, as well as proprietary protocols such as Nvidia’s NVLink and Nvidia’s interconnect chips NVSwitch. The company has stated that their 100ZR pluggable transceivers can upgrade old 10GBps Ethernet links with 100 GBps at the optical network edge, representing a 10X upgrade.

Coherent designs and manufactures the components, such as lasers, detectors and passive optics. Manufacturing the components (as opposed to buying them) is a strength as the company has supply chain resiliency by controlling the end-to-end process, and the manufacturing takes place primarily in the United States with some in Europe. Notably, the discussion as to where AI chips and their components are manufactured is setting up to become a hot topic come 2025.

Overview of Coherent’s Products:

Last quarter, Coherent’s networking revenue increased 12% sequentially and 61% year-over-year to $763 million. The strong growth was led by the AI-related datacom segment, which grew 16% sequentially and 89% year-over-year. The company has seen strong rebounds in this segment since September of last year, partly due to being a supplier for Nvidia’s NVLink and InfiniBand. Coherent also supplies components for Ethernet networking.

Coherent provides laser technologies for 100-gig to 400-gig, plus the AI-centric 800-gig optics and the AI-centric 1.6T optics. Of these, the 800-gig is the primary interconnect for AI deployments with 1.6T shipping in 2025. Artificial intelligence and machine learning drive demand for the 800-gig PAM to increase the speed of input-output and to process the data flows. This doubles the throughput (bandwidth) due to an 8x100Gpbs optical transceiver for inside and between AI clusters.

Marvell was first to launch the 1.6T solution 5nm and 3nm with 200-gig per lane for both. The highly newly launched 1.6T 3nm optical DSPs will reduce power consumption, something that Blackwell is breaking the upper limits of with an estimated 140kW per rack. Right now, any component that lowers power consumption will be in high demand come Q1-Q2. Coherent is expected to launch their solution next year, per the earnings call: “Having delivered initial samples in the preceding quarter, we continue to expect to begin ramping sales of 1.6T datacom transceivers in calendar 2025.”

Although Marvell and Broadcom are the two that first come to mind when discussing PAM4-based networking and DSPs, it’s important to remember that Nvidia is a leader in AI networking in their own right. Last quarter, Nvidia reported networking revenue of $3.13 billion while Broadcom most recently reported AI revenue of $3.7 billion for the quarter. If we remove the $300 million for custom silicon, Broadcom reported $3.4 billion in AI networking. Nvidia is a newcomer to the field following the acquisition of Mellanox in 2019.

Coherent supplied content is likely to increase with Nvidia as Blackwell is a catalyst for this partnership. With the upcoming release of Blackwell, NVLink speeds will double from the fourth-generation to the fifth-generation. We pointed out a few months back the significance of NVLink’s fifth-generation as it’s the most important generational leap to-date for Nvidia’s networking products:

“NVLink Switch is a major component to the Blackwell upgrade. Fifth-generation NVLink enables multi-GPU communication at high speed, reaching 1.8 TB/s bidirectional throughput or 14X the bandwidth of PCIe for a single GPU.

For the NVL72 systems, NVLink Switch can reach 130 TB/second, which is “more than the aggregate bandwidth of the internet.” Therefore, it’s the compute and the communication capabilities of the upcoming GB200 release that are important to consider. The 72 GPUs in the NVL72 can be used as a single accelerator for 1.4 exaflops of AI compute power.”130 TB/second, which is “more than the aggregate bandwidth of the internet.” Therefore, it’s the compute and the communication capabilities of the upcoming GB200 release that are important to consider. The 72 GPUs in the NVL72 can be used as a single accelerator for 1.4 exaflops of AI compute power.”

The result is that the GB200 will deliver a 30X speedup for 1 trillion­­+ parameter models by leveraging FP4 precision and fifth-generation NVLink. The NVL72 rack-scale systems are exascale computers that will contain up to 5,000 NVLink cables for up to 2 miles of networking.

To put it simply, Nvidia is set to report roughly $200 billion in AI systems revenue next year (we think it’ll be higher than this), with the GB200 systems driving a surge in demand for Nvidia’s in-house networking solutions. There is no other player in the ballpark or zip code of this AI accelerator revenue, and thus, this year will offer a unique opportunity for Nvidia to greatly increase its networking segment driven the scale-out and scale-up of GPUs. That is to say, the 4.5X to 9X increase in systems from 8 GPUs to 36 GPUs or 72 GPUs, plus the scale-out toward clusters with 100,000-GPUs and eventually million-plus GPUs.

Below are a few products that Coherent offers that are set to benefit.

Coherent’s AI-Related Products:

Coherent has a highly technical suite of hardware products. To streamline the discussion, I’ll focus on the three product lines that management calls out as major contributors to the rebound in its AI-related datacom segment (part of the larger networking segment).

  • Next-generation transceiver technologies, such as VCSELs, EMLs and CW lasers for silicon photonics – reported in the networking segment
  • Datacom optical switch platform – reported in the datacom segment
  • Data center interconnects (DCIs) – not part of the AI segment, rather this is reported in the telecom segment.

Next-Generation Transceivers:

Last quarter, Coherent’s networking revenue increased 12% sequentially and 61% year-over-year to $763 million.

VCSELs: >100 meters Distance:

Vertical Cavity Surfacing Emitting Lasers (VCSELs) are for link distances of less than 100 meters. As Coherent explains, these are the lowest-cost, lowest power consumption solution. In March, the company announced its 200G VCSELs that replace the oxide-aperture with a lithographic-aperture. When combined with a DSP, the 200G VCSELs allow for a 1.6T multimode optical transceiver for AI, high-performance computing (HPC) and networking applications.

Silicon Photonics >100m: Nvidia to Launch SiPho Product H2 2025

For distances greater than 100m, silicon photonics-based transceivers are used. We wrote about silicon photonics previously before Nvidia Hopper had shipped in volume. Back in early 2023, an article from Next Platform discussed the previous generation of GPUs, where the NVSwitch fabric on the DGX-A100 systems has “a range of about 300 centimeters and moves data at 8 picojoules per bit. The goal is silicon photonics to do it at half the energy and boost the range to as far as 100 meters between devices.”

Coherent recently announced a continuous wave (CW) InP laser for silicon photonics that “are on the forward edge of data transmission technology, crucially addressing the explosive bandwidth demands brought on by the rapid adoption of machine learning networks within AI-driven data centers.” According to the press release, Coherent’s CW lasers will result in 15% better power efficiency and are more reliable due to eliminating aluminum.

The first CW laser to launch was in September of 2024 with a higher-power laser for cooled operations launching in 2025. The press release cited that production capacity is expanding 500% over the next two years: “And with our upcoming expansion to a state-of-the-art 6-inch InP fab in Sherman, Texas, by 2026, we expect production capacity to be 5x our current production rate, a significant ramp given the complexity of this material.”

At the end of September, Coherent demonstrated a new 1.6T-DR8 transceiver module running a 5nm Nvidia chip. The SiPho product, or silicon photonics product, will read and write data at the speed of 1.6Tbps. The initial reaction from analysts is that this product will become more impactful at the end of 2025, taking up to 10% to 20% of the market in 2026, pointing toward Nvidia customers Microsoft, Coreweave and Lambda as being names that would drive the sales come 2026.

EML Lasers:

Electro-absorption modulated lasers (EMLs) help to enable the 200G per lane transmission, which is enabling the 1.6TBps data rate. In the future, it is likely AI networking will expand to a 3.2TBps data rate. The EML device that Coherent supplies offers signal integrity for 200G optical transmission due to the wide bandwidth of the modulator and on-chip integrated radio frequency (RF) termination.

EMLs were traditionally used by telecom customers, yet became attractive for AI servers due to meeting the 200G per second speeds necessary to support AI models and capabilities for 1.6T optical modules. EMLs are more expensive than CW lasers for silicon photonics, with 1.6T SiPho being the more popular choice. Where four EML lasers are required to run 1.6T, two less-expensive CW lasers are needed to run four channels with a silicon photonics module.

Coherent’s press releases point toward EML lasers becoming more impactful with the push toward reading and writing data at 3.2TB per second speeds.

When asked on the call which product will be most influential at 1.6TB ramps, Coherent’s management was declined to state it would be primarily SiPho, rather stating it would be a mix of all three:

Q: “[…] And then if you think that the world is kind of ramping on 1.6T, do you guys see kind of more of a silicon photonics world or an EML world as that 1.6T ramp?”

A: “[…] We look at it as we'll deploy whatever the best technology is for the benefit of the customer and the application that we're trying to drive. So, whether that's an EML, a VCSEl, or silicon photonics, we're developing all of those different options and we'll deploy whatever technology is strongest to create the biggest differentiation for our products and the biggest benefit for our customers. So, that's kind of the approach that we take to the technology. And I think we've got the broadest set of technology options of certainly any of our peers and competitors. So, I think that's a real competitive strength for us.”

Datacom Optical Switch Platform (OCS Switch):

Optical current switches are a new kind of switch for AI clusters that handles the switching optically instead of using transceivers to convert photons to electrons, and back again. According to the earnings call, “Our differentiated switch is based on our highly reliable solid-state liquid crystal technology and was recognized at ECOC '24 with the Best Product Award for data center innovation. We've shipped sample units to key strategic customers and we expect to begin ramping revenue in calendar 2025.”

According to a Dell’Oro analyst, optical switches are a new kind of switch that offers high bandwidth, low latency and are less expensive to operate. Per Coherent: “this kind of optical switching tends to be more reliable – something that will pay dividends in very larger clusters in which mean time to failure tends to be quite low.”

At Hot Chips 2023, Google’s TPU group technical lead, Andy Swing, explained that Google has been able to “switch together very large quantities of AI accelerators” in pods with 64 TPUs. According to Google, the optical circuit switch results in a sizable boost in network bandwidth and can be reconfigured if a node fails. It doesn’t take much imagination to consider other hyperscalers are likely to follow in Google’s footsteps by using an OCS switch as cluster sizes for AI accelerators are set to increase. 

Datacom Interconnects (DCIs):

For long distance transmission, Coherent offers data center interconnects (DCIs). This can range up to hundreds of kilometers. There was a recent press announcement that Marvell, Lumentum and Coherent worked on optical modules with transmission links of up to 500km.

DCIs are recognized under the telecom segment, which saw growth of 9% sequentially and 17% year-over-year. Within this, management stated: “We are definitely seeing strong demand signals in DCI, right? And obviously, that's only a portion of the telecom market, but we are seeing very strong demand signals there.”

Financials:

Coherent’s Q1 FY2025 revenue grew by 28% YoY to $1.35 billion, beating estimates by 2.4%. Revenue accelerated by 18.9 percentage points from the 9.1% growth reported in the June quarter. The strong growth was primarily led by AI-related datacom revenue, which grew 16% sequentially and 89% YoY.

Management has guided FQ2 revenue of $1.37 billion, representing 21.1% YoY growth at the midpoint. Analysts expect growth to sustain 15.6% YoY growth to $1.40 billion in FQ3.

Looking further out, analysts expect FY2025 ending in June revenue to grow 17.9% YoY to $5.55 billion and 11.2% YoY to $6.17 billion in FY2026.

Revenue by End Market:

Communications

Communications end market FQ1 revenue grew by 68% YoY and 14% sequential growth to $774 million. It is the largest end market and constitutes 57.4% of total revenue. Revenue accelerated by 49 percentage points from 19% growth in FQ4. The strong growth was led by datacom and telecom revenue.

FQ1 datacom revenue grew by 89% YoY and 16% sequentially due to strong AI data center demand. The company witnessed a continued ramp for 800-G transceivers, benefitting from the increased number of customers ramping 800-G transceivers. Management expects strong growth in 800-G transceivers to continue in the coming quarter with revenue from 1.6T transceivers starting to ramp in CY2025. The company delivered initial samples of 1.6T transceivers in FQ4.

Telecom revenue grew by 17% YoY and 9% sequentially, primarily due to end market improvement and the ramp of the company’s new products, namely 100G ZR and 400G ZR+ Coherent transceivers. Although management expects the telecom end market to remain weak in the near term, they expect a ramp in revenue from these new products over FY2025. Overall, they expect the communications market to be a long-term growth driver for the company.

Industrial

The industrial end market is the second largest end market and constitutes 30.2% of revenue. The industrial end market grew by 1% YoY and down (-6%) QoQ to $407 million. Revenue decelerated from 5% growth in FQ4 as the strength in display capital equipment was offset by the weakness in the precision manufacturing. The company faced demand headwinds in the precision manufacturing, mirroring broader industry trends. However, despite the near-term weakness, management “expects the industrial market to be a long-term growth driver for the company as the end markets recover and as our new products continue to ramp.”

Instrumentation

The Instrumentation end market constitutes only a small 6.8% of total revenue. FQ1 revenue was down (-8%) YoY and (-10%) sequentially to $91 million.

Electronics

The Electronics end market also constitutes only a small 5.6% of total revenue. FQ1 revenue was down (-16%) YoY and (-27%) QoQ to $76 million.

Segments

  • Networking FQ1 revenue reported strong growth of 61% YoY and 12% sequentially to $763 million due to the AI data center demand. Revenue accelerated from 16% growth in FQ4.
  • Lasers segment revenue increased 4% YoY and down (-2%) QoQ to $348 million. Revenue decelerated from 7% growth in FQ4.
  • Materials segment FQ1 revenue was down (-3%) YoY and (-15%) QoQ to $237 million.

Margins

Margins are expanding yet they remain low compared to other semiconductor companies, and this will remain a predominant concern with Coherent. Management has set a goal of achieving a consistent adjusted gross margin level of above 40% and has two important initiatives: pricing optimization in the industrial business (includes industrial end market, instrumentation, and electronics) and product cost reductions for the datacom transceiver business.

Per the earnings call:

“[…] And I do see opportunity to do a much better job of optimizing the pricing of the [industrial] products and capturing what I would say — what I would call is the fair value for the technology and the innovation that we're bringing to those industrial markets.

Now, in pricing in the datacom transceiver space, there I think there's, I would say, there's not as much opportunity on the pricing side. But what I would say is, but there's definitely opportunity on the product cost side. And that's one of the examples I gave earlier on the call is on product costs within transceivers. And I highlighted, I believe this on the last earnings call, yields as definitely an opportunity. And Sherri and I, as I said earlier, we're in an operational review this morning, spending time talking to the team about yields, the improvements that they've driven over the past few months, and what we need to see in terms of yield improvements moving forward as well. And that is definitely an area of focus for us. So, I would — back to your datacom transceiver question in particular, I would say maybe not so much on pricing, but definitely there's opportunity for us in cost and we're certainly very focused on that.”

  • FQ1 gross margin improved five percentage points YoY to 34.1%. Adjusted gross margin improved 2.9 percentage points YoY to 37.7%, primarily helped by higher revenue, favorable product mix, and yield improvements.
  • Management has guided for an adjusted gross margin of 37% at the midpoint for FQ2 compared to 36% in the same period last year. The CFO provided more clarity during the earnings call Q&A on the gross margins and assured to provide more details before the Investor Day in May 2025 on its plan to achieve the long-term goal of above 40% gross margins.

“When we look at Q2, the guide for Q2, that is a range, right, 36% to 38%, it is a range, and there can certainly be fluctuation on a quarterly basis with respect to gross margin. But we did talk about, last quarter; Jim mentioned that we launched our gross margin expansion strategy which includes product pricing optimization, as well as product cost reduction. And so that's an area where we're going to focus on because we want to achieve a long-term gross margin of greater than 40%, and so that's really how to think about what our goal is for our long-term gross margin.”

  • FQ1 operating margin improved significantly to 5.6% from (-2%) in the same period last year. Adjusted operating margin improved 4.7 percentage points YoY to 17.3%. Management guide for the next quarter is 16.2%. Even though the guide is down sequentially, it is up from 15.2% in the same period last year.
  • The operating margin is expected to improve along with the gross margins in the long term. The company is prioritizing its R&D investments in the growth areas and divesting non-profitable businesses. Another key takeaway from the earnings call is the CEO’s comment, “I just want to reiterate what I said in the prepared remarks that even though the overall non-strategic category is a relatively small part of our revenue, again, it is dilutive to our operating margins.”
  • Net income was $25.9 million or 1.9% of revenue compared to a net loss of (-$67.5) million or (-6.4%) of revenue in the same period last year. Adjusted net income was $149.7 million or 11.1% of revenue compared to $55 million or 5.2% of revenue in the same period last year.

EPS

Coherent has strong EPS growth. Analysts expect EPS growth to continue going forward, and there is potential for further upgrades to the EPS estimates due to the new CEO’s streamlining/restructuring plan.

  • FQ1 adjusted EPS grew by 357% YoY to $0.74, primarily helped by operating leverage, favorable product mix, improvement in yield, product price optimization, and product cost reductions.
  • Analysts expect adjusted EPS to grow 86.3% YoY to $0.67 and 43.2% YoY to $0.76 in the subsequent two quarters.
  • Looking further out, analysts expect the adjusted EPS for FY2025 ending June to grow 80.5% YoY to $3.01 and 45.1% YoY to $4.37 for FY2026.
  • Jefferies analyst believes that the new CEO’s streamlining and cost reduction initiatives could potentially double the adjusted EPS from the current about $3.0 to as much as $6.40 annual EPS in 2026.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: 2.4X Debt Leverage

Operating cash flow margins have been hovering around 10% of revenue and are expected to improve with higher revenue and profits in the coming quarters.

  • FQ1 operating cash flow was $152.98 million or 11.4% of revenue compared to 18.9% in the same period last year. The operating cash flow margin was in line with the full year operating cash flow margin of 11.6% for FY2024 and 12.3% for FY2023.
  • FQ1 free cash flow was $61 million or 4.5% of revenue compared to 13% in the same period last year. The free cash flow margin was in line with the full year free cash flow margin of 4.2% for FY2024 and 3.8% for FY2023.
  • Cash was $1.02 billion; debt was $3.99 billion compared to $926 million and $4.1 billion at the end of FQ4.
  • During FQ1, the company repaid $118 million in debt from the cash from operations and proceeds from the sale of the Newton Aycliffe fabrication facility. The sale is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to streamline operations.
  • With the $118 million debt repayment, the company has reduced the debt leverage ratio to 2.4x, and debt reduction will continue to be the priority for the management.

Divestment

The company is looking to divest or shut down non-strategic product lines and assets. The company recently sold the Newton Aycliffe fabrication facility in the UK. The proceeds from the sale of the facility were used to repay debt and will also help to reduce the overhead expenses and interest expenses.

Similarly, it is looking for strategic alternatives for the battery technology business. Although the business accounts for a small percentage of revenue, it is dilutive to the company’s margins. It will allow the company to focus on investments that have better returns on investments, such as the AI data center transceiver business. The management is expected to provide more updates in the coming months and during the Investor Day in May 2025. The company might also divest the silicon carbide business, in which Denso and Mitsubishi Electric have a 25% non-controlling stake.

New Management from Lattice Semiconductor:

Jim Anderson was appointed CEO of Coherent Corp. and a member of the Board of Directors on June 3, 2024. He previously served as CEO of Lattice Semiconductor Corporation since September 2018. Prior to joining Lattice, Mr. Anderson served as the Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Computing and Graphics Business Group at AMD.

Jim, who is credited for bringing about a turnaround in Lattice Semiconductor, is also expected to repeat his success at Coherent along with the new CFO Sherri Luther. The company appointed Sherri Luther as CFO on Oct 11, 2024. Prior to that, she was the CFO of Lattice Semiconductor since 2019. Prior to joining Lattice in 2019, she worked at Coherent for 16 years, including as Corporate Vice President of Finance.

Commentary from FQ1 2025 Earnings Call:

800-Gig drove the Revenue Beat, 1.6T Shipping in 2025:

There were questions as to where the upside from the quarter came from, given the top line and sizable 20%+ bottom-line beat. As noted, there was sizable growth in the datacom transceiver business of 16% QoQ growth and 89% YoY growth. The CEO points out customer breadth is expanding on the 800G product.

Q: Simon Leopold, Raymond James: “[…] And I guess what I'm trying to understand is where was the, really, upside surprise this quarter, was it really 800 gig and above or was there more strength from the more traditional products below — 400-gig and below, did that provide any upside or was it all coming from the higher performance? Thank you.”

A: Jim Anderson, CEO: “We did see sequential growth there [400-gig and under speeds]. That was very nice to see. When you look across the customer base, customers are at different stages of adopting the different transceiver speeds. So, we still have customers that are doing significant volume on 400G and below as well. And so, it's really a mix of different transceiver speeds.

And then, back on 800-gig, I would say, look, we're really pleased with the ramp, the overall ramp of our 800-gig transceivers. And then, the other color I would add is that one of the things I'm really pleased to see is the breadth of customers that we have. The number of customers that are ramping 800-gig has significantly increased. If I look like a year ago, it was only maybe a couple customers. Now, we have many customers ramping 800-gig. So, there's a much bigger diversity of revenue streams underneath that 800-gig ramp. And we do expect 800-gig to continue to grow over the coming quarters as well.”

Although the customer breadth has grown with 800-gig, it was stated on the call the 1.6T will launch with a customer breadth that is smaller and matches the start of the 800-gig.

Supply Constraints Could be a Catalyst for Coherent:

There were three questions on the call from three separate analysts about potential supply constraint in lasers, with two analysts calling out the supply constraint being specifically with EMLs: “certainly on the EML side as we're hearing about constraints, et cetera, as you think about '25 and '26?”

The CEO pointed out this is an area incremental strength for Coherent as they make most of their parts internally (which is quite rare) yet will source when the demand requires it. The CEO also pointed out their breadth of technologies helps to meet demand if there were to be a shortage in a specific laser, such as EML.

Here are a few statements from the CEO that addressed Coherent having an advantage by building their own products in a fairly crowded market of networking components:

“On that first area of technology roadmap, I think our customers really recognize the breadth and the depth of the technology portfolio that we can bring to bear, specially in the optical networking space, where we don't just assemble the modules, but we build a lot of the ingredient components that go into the module; the lasers, whether they're VCSELs, EMLs for silicon photonics that we design, or a lot of the other ingredients that go into those modules […] and then, our verticalized structure could be a real advantage, especially in a very fast ramp situation, which we're in right now with our datacenter customers. When demand is increasing very quickly, it's really important to have that verticalized strategy and structure that we have, because I think that's really allowed us to supply them in a really reliable.”

This statement was reiterated a few times, which is that Coherent’s advantage lies within the breadth of the technologies they offer alongside the capability to build internally.

United States Domiciled:

The discussions around supply constraints potentially helping Coherent as the company builds its own products are further supported by the fact Coherent components are primarily manufactured in the United States, with some in Europe. The company has plans to expand its presence in the United States with a 6-inch InP wafer fab in Sherman Texas. According to an announcement last week, Coherent was awarded $33 million from the United States CHIPS act to support the expansion of the Texas facility.

Competitors:

According to the 10-K, the company “had one customer who contributed more than 10% of revenue during fiscal 2024.” This is understood to be Nvidia. Yet, B.Riley downgraded the stock due to Nvidia seeking more suppliers for the 1.6T products, with the analyst note naming Eoptolink, Innolight and Fabrinet as notable competitors.

Conclusion:

If you had “reading about AI networking components” on your Christmas list, then consider yourself in luck. The I/O Fund is leaving no stone unturned in delivering a full hardware stack analysis on what’s to come in 2025 as AI systems increase in complexity. Although we saw some outliers in AI software this year, we continue to foresee 2025 to be the year for AI hardware – far more so previous years. This goes back to how the Blackwell systems are being built, by scaling out 4-9X, and also requiring new components to handle the surge in AI server power consumption.

Of course, with every great opportunity, there comes some element of risk. The clear risk to semiconductors are tariffs with rumors that Chinese tariffs could be as high as 60% on imports from this region.  This would technically be a tailwind for Coherent — a key Nvidia supplier as we go into 2025 that would not only circumvent the majority of tariffs but potentially come out on top.

Additional Readings:

Semtech: Fiber Optics and Copper (ACC) AI Networking ComponentsSemtech: Fiber Optics and Copper (ACC) AI Networking Components

Vertiv: AI Data Center and Direct Liquid Cooling Stock; Nvidia SupplierVertiv: AI Data Center and Direct Liquid Cooling Stock; Nvidia Supplier

Marvell Q3 Earnings: Strong Sequential Growth; Expanded AWS PartnershipMarvell Q3 Earnings: Strong Sequential Growth; Expanded AWS Partnership

Optical Interconnects Overview: Strong Growth Expected AheadOptical Interconnects Overview: Strong Growth Expected Ahead

Posted in Ai Platforms, Semiconductor StocksLeave a Comment on Coherent: Key Nvidia Supplier for Optical Networking Components

This Is Not Broadcom’s ‘Nvidia Moment’ Yet

Posted on December 23, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund
This Is Not Broadcom’s ‘Nvidia Moment’ Yet

This article was originally published on Forbes on Updated Dec 19, 2024, 05:10pm ESTForbesForbes on Updated Dec 19, 2024, 05:10pm EST

Broadcom’s stock surged 35% in two days despite a mediocre Q4, as management offered investors a picturesque addressable market forecast for 2027. Q4 was not the blowout report the market made it out to be, as Broadcom fell just short of revenue estimates while guiding Q1 barely above consensus. Despite this, the market did solidify that momentum continues to build for AI stocks entering 2025.

Broadcom’s commentary on the call as to the serviceable addressable market for its two leading AI segments, custom silicon and networking, is why the stock moved a whopping 25%. As a reminder, a serviceable addressable market refers to market size the company can service, and is not a forecast of the company’s revenue. While Broadcom gave investors a reason to dream, it’s not the stock’s ‘Nvidia moment’ despite the surge in the stock price resembling Nvidia’s 2023 breakout. Instead, Broadcom is reporting flat QoQ AI revenue with the 200% year-over-year number being old news (Broadcom had guided for $12B in AI revenue in Q3 and only marginally beat that figure).

Among the AI titans, Broadcom is the one of the only stocks to see lumpy AI growth, reporting flat AI revenue growth from Q2 to Q3 – with expectations it remains at a mere 3% QoQ growth to start fiscal 2025. This occurred roughly a month before tariffs are likely to affect its top customer – Apple.

Below, I provide data that shows the move in Broadcom’s stock was premature, creating outsized pressure on Broadcom to live up to AI juggernaut Nvidia in 2025, which is unrealistic given Broadcom has only ~25% of revenue from AI versus 80% of revenue from Nvidia. When you factor in 30%+ of Broadcom’s revenue comes from China, versus Nvidia at 15% for China exposure, what you have is an upside down scenario for Broadcom where tariffs could negatively impact more revenue than what AI is currently providing.

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A Tantalizing Forecast for Broadcom’s AI Opportunity

The Street is desperate to find the next Nvidia in the vast and complex sector of semiconductors and hardware providers. There were many raises/beats across AI-related semiconductors, including from many small, lesser-known names. Meanwhile, Broadcom’s report was one of the least spectacular as there was a very rare miss for Q4 revenue and a Q1 guide that was only $30 million above consensus.

Growth is challenged sequentially, with Q1 only set to grow 4% QoQ. Semiconductor revenue was seen declining nearly -2% sequentially as well, with management guiding for $8.1 billion in Q1 versus $8.23 billion in Q4. AI revenue was not much of a surprise either, as Broadcom had guided for full-year AI revenue of $12 billion in Q3, coming in not even 2% above the guide.

To offset the lackluster performance, the management team painted a picture for AI revenue growth to scale quickly with a tantalizing addressable market forecast for 2027.

Here’s what CEO Hock Tan said that energized the stock:

“We currently have three hyper-scale customers who have developed their own multi-generational AI XPU roadmap to be deployed at varying rates over the next three years. In 2027, we believe each of them plans to deploy 1 million XPU clusters across a single fabric. We expect this to represent an AI revenue Serviceable Addressable Market, or SAM, for XPUs and networking in the range of $60 billion to $90 billion in fiscal 2027 alone.

We are very well positioned to achieve a leading market share in this opportunity and expect this will drive a strong ramp from our 2024 AI revenue base of $12.2 billion. Keep in mind though, this will not be a linear ramp.”

Tan also added that Broadcom was in advanced development with two additional hyperscalers, rumored to be ByteDance and OpenAI, with possibilities to turn both into revenue generating customers before 2027.

The comments the ramp will not be linear likely refers to the ramp being back-half weighted, with the majority of revenue being recognized between 2026-2027. On the call, it was mentioned that its 3nm custom silicon will ship in the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, Broadcom is trading at an astronomical valuation that is higher than Nvidia’s.

In fact, Broadcom is up against its toughest year yet as Nvidia’s Blackwell systems are set to raise the bar competitively with custom silicon as powerful Blackwell systems combining 36 CPUs and up to 72 GPUs ship in volume in Q1 with a bigger ramp in Q2 of 2025. The 72 GPUs in the NVL72 will be used as a single accelerator for 1.4 exaflops of AI compute power. Nvidia’s proprietary NVLink Switch will reach 130 TB/second, which is “more than the aggregate bandwidth of the internet.” Outside of narrow use cases, custom silicon will not be able to compete with Nvidia in 2025, whereas in future years, custom silicon may have more of an opportunity to catch up. For example, when comparing with Nvidia’s 2023-2024 Hopper generation, Amazon’s Trainium2 instances with 100,000 processors “equals around 32,768 Nvidia H100 processors,” according to Tom’s Hardware. This helps to paint a picture as to why custom silicon revenue for Broadcom is at a low $300 million per quarter in custom silicon revenue compared to Nvidia’s $27 billion per quarter on GPUs (removing the $3 billion Nvidia makes in networking from the data center segment).

Going back to the comment of a $75 billion serviceable market by 2027, at the midpoint – let’s put this opportunity in perspective. For 2024, Broadcom reported AI revenue of $12.2 billion, up 220% YoY from $3.8 billion in 2023. As stated, this was guided in Q3 and was not a beat/raise or news to anyone who covers the stock.

CEO Hock Tan said he believes Broadcom’s current serviceable AI market is worth $15 billion to $20 billion this year, suggesting that Broadcom commands approximately 70% market share at the midpoint of that range.

Broadcom serves two major markets in AI – custom accelerators which Broadcom is referring to as XPUs, and networking and switches, ripe with competition from Nvidia, Arista, Cisco, and others.

It will certainly not be a straightforward path for Broadcom to maintain what it sees as a 70% share of these addressable AI markets. Nvidia is arguably a strong contender in networking with InfiniBand and is moving into ethernet with Spectrum-X, while there are many other networking suppliers involved with Broadcom’s hyperscale customers. As pointed out by the CEO regarding the serviceable addressable market: “There's room for many players. All we are going to do is gain our fair share.”

Assuming Broadcom can reach 60% share at a $75B addressable market size, that correlates to approximately $45 billion in AI revenue in 2027, or nearly 3.7x growth over the next three years. In other words, that would require AI revenue growth of ~55% annually through 2027. While hyperscaler capex definitely supports such a ramp, this growth pales in comparison to the numbers Nvidia has been putting up. Meanwhile, Broadcom does not have the moat that Nvidia has, which I pointed out five years ago is the CUDA development platform.

Nvidia is currently on track for approximately $114 billion in data center revenue in fiscal 2025, up 140% YoY and up 661% from fiscal 2023. In fiscal 2027, Nvidia is expected to generate nearly $220 billion in data center revenue, or nearly 8x higher than Broadcom’s AI revenue estimate of $29 billion. This would be about 36% of revenue at the consensus estimate for $80 billion, which pales in comparison to the 80% range Nvidia has, and AI server makers, with one expected to see up to 40% of revenue from AI next year.

The I/O Fund previewed Nvidia’s path to a $200 billion data center segment in May 2024 for its free newsletter readers for gains of 39% since then, and gains of 2,550% since first calling out Nvidia’s AI GPU thesis and CUDA moat in November 2018. Premium members receive real-time trade alerts and analysis on numerous other AI data center beneficiaries. Learn more here.Nvidia’s path to a $200 billion data center segment in May 2024 for its free newsletter readers for gains of 39% since then, and gains of 2,550% since first calling out Nvidia’s AI GPU thesis and CUDA moat in November 2018. Premium members receive real-time trade alerts and analysis on numerous other AI data center beneficiaries. Learn more here.

Broadcom’s AI Revenue at a Glance

Broadcom capped off fiscal 2024 with nearly 150% YoY growth in AI revenue to $3.7 billion, with networking the primary contributor. QoQ growth was ~20% in Q4, rebounding from flat QoQ growth in Q3; however, Q1 is expected to see QoQ growth decelerate to the low single-digits.

Here’s what Broadcom’s quarterly AI revenue growth has looked like:

Broadcom Quarterly AI Revenue

Broadcom's quarterly AI revenue reached $3.7 billion in Q4, after remaining flat QoQ at $3.1 billion in Q3. Source: I/O Fund

The non-linear, bumpy ramp the CEO referenced is quite visible – sequential growth was flat in Q3, and for Q1, management’s guide for $3.8 billion in AI revenue points to sequential growth of under 3%. Meanwhile, Nvidia has grown data center revenue by $4 billion sequentially for four consecutive quarters – Nvidia’s sequential growth alone more than outpaces Broadcom’s total quarterly AI revenue.

For Q4, management said that they saw growth from both AI accelerators and networking, though not at the same rate. Networking component shipments were much higher in the back half of the year, with this strength continuing into the first half of next year. Management provided some additional growth figures for AI networking, with revenue up 158% YoY, driven by 4x growth in AI connectivity revenue from Tomahawk and Jericho shipments. AI networking contributed 76% of networking revenue, implying AI networking revenue of ~$3.4 billion, and custom accelerator revenue of ~$300 million in Q4.

While custom accelerator accounted for just a small portion of AI revenue in the quarter, management foresees strong growth in the second half of 2025. Broadcom is set to begin and quickly ramp shipments of its next-gen 3 nanometer AI ASICs to hyperscaler customers in the second half of the year.

Emphasis on Networking

Broadcom had previously laid out a path to 1 million accelerator clusters deployed by 2027, and re-emphasized that path in Q4’s earnings call. That’s essentially tenfold growth from the current 100K cluster sizes being deployed today. While that no doubt this will correlate into tremendous growth in accelerator shipments for Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, and lesser-known ASICs design companies, Broadcom put emphasis on the need for networking to scale up to this degree.

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Piper Sandler analyst Harlan Sur asked management about the dollar content for networking vs custom accelerators, and what the attach rate of networking per accelerator would be (ie. $1 networking for $1 in accelerators). CEO Hock Tan explained that “the simple ratio to look at is there is scale up and there is scale out. And as we expand into a single fabric cluster of XPUs or GPU that grows bigger and bigger, guess what is more important. Scale up becomes more and more important. And the ratio we are talking about as we move up increases almost exponentially, which is why I'm saying from networking, as a percent of AI content in silicon today of between 5% to 10%, you're going up to 15% to 20% by the time you hit 500,000 to 1 million XPU GPU clusters.”

This is because of the increasing demands for networking and switches to connect exponentially larger clusters, from spine to leaf in the front end and back end, rack to rack and accelerator to accelerator. With that said, Nvidia and Broadcom are neck-and-neck in networking revenue with Nvidia at $3.13 billion for Q3 and Broadcom at $3.42 billion. This year, Nvidia will be increasing its networking content and ramping Spectrum X, it’s Ethernet networking platform.

This is Not Yet Broadcom’s Nvidia Moment

The opportunity beckons with AI cluster sizes set to grow tenfold or more over the next three years as hyperscalers build and deploy ever-larger data centers, however, this is decidedly not Broadcom’s ‘Nvidia moment’ yet. What separates the two is actual, numerical data.

Nvidia’s Hopper-driven breakout towards the $1 trillion market cap milestone in May 2023 came on the back of a ‘jaw dropping’ guide higher — it reported revenue of $7.2 billion for fiscal Q1 2024 (versus $6.5 billion estimated). The company guided for $11 billion in Q2 while analysts were expecting just $7.2 billion. Nvidia ultimately beat that guide as it reported $13.5 billion in revenue in Q2.

Since then, in just six quarters, Nvidia’s quarterly revenue has grown 5x from $7.2 billion to $35.1 billion, with $1 billion-plus beats each quarter along the way.

Broadcom Financial Chart

Nvidia's quarterly revenue has risen more than 5x since fiscal Q1 2024 with $1 billion-plus beats in the last six quarters. Source: Seeking Alpha

Broadcom, on the other hand, slightly missed revenue estimates this quarter and guided Q1 only marginally above consensus. AI revenue of $12.2 billion also came in just $0.2 billion above management’s forecast for $12 billion given in Q3; not exactly the out-of-the-ballpark blowout that Nvidia consistently put up quarter after quarter.

The difference between the two is quite clear:

Broadcom AI Revenue vs Nvidia Data Center Revenue

Nvidia's sequential data center growth has totaled more than Broadcom's quarterly AI revenue in each of the last four quarters. Source: I/O Fund

Broadcom has the potential to capture a large part of a rapidly growing market in AI networking and custom silicon for hyperscalers, and cement itself as the #2 in AI semiconductor stock ahead of AMD, but it requires some speculation.

Broadcom has to prove that this market opportunity is theirs for the taking, and they will have to take it in full force and lay down the foundation for AI revenue to grow into that SAM – that is, to grow nearly 4x to $45 billion in AI revenue over the next three years (60% share of a $75B SAM).

Broadcom’s cloud software is executing well with VMWare’s integration almost fully complete, and cost synergies and operating efficiencies being realized, but AI hardware and networking is where Broadcom needs to prove it can sustain its large market size in an environment growing fiercely competitive.

For example, Arista is targeting AI networking revenue of $1.5 billion and another competitor is forecasting $2.5 billion for AI networking and custom silicon in 2025, while Nvidia’s networking revenue is well above a $12 billion annual run rate with Spectrum-X ramping. Regarding Spectrum-X, investors should take note that AI juggernaut Nvidia is entering the Ethernet market for the first time, following the success of InfiniBand. Thus, Broadcom’s lofty 70% market share is likely to come under serious pressure as Nvidia expects Spectrum-X to become a multi-billion dollar product within the next year.

This boils down to valuation – Broadcom’s surge to $250, up 40% in one week, has pushed the chipmaker to trade at its first ever premium to Nvidia since its merger with Avago in 2016, and a rather large premium at that. Both of the two have strong bottom lines, but Broadcom is now trading at 35.3x NTM earnings of $6.35, whereas Nvidia is trading at 33.1x NTM earnings of $3.95. Broadcom is also trading at a slight premium on the topline, at 18.3x NTM revenue, versus 17.9x for Nvidia. Broadcom is strong on margins, though not nearly as strong as Nvidia – the operating margin of 31.9% in Q4 was slightly over half of Nvidia’s 62.3%, with a net margin of 29.8% versus Nvidia’s 55.0%.

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Potential Entry for Broadcom

Despite the lower custom silicon revenue that needs to ramp and the highly competitive networking market, a lesser-known AI angle for Broadcom is the VMWare acquisition is paying off in spades… infrastructure software was up 196% with the acquisition now largely complete, and operating margins are an impressive 72% in this segment. Infrastructure growth was guided at 41% YoY for Q1, contributing nearly 45% of revenue, providing more robust margin tailwinds to complement AI semiconductor growth over the next couple of years. The synergies from AI-driven high-growth, high-margin infrastructure software and expectations for a rapid ramp in AI semiconductor revenue through 2027 could make Broadcom a compelling AI name, provided the price is right.

Broadcom (AVGO) broke out to new highs on heavy buying volume based on the results from their recent earnings report. A vertical move on heavy volume is everyone realizing at the same time the direction of the trend – shorts cover, and longs buy, causing the type of vertical price action exhibited below. These moves tend to be the 3rd waves in a 5 wave uptrend, which is what I believe AVGO just completed.

There are currently two scenarios based on the price action that the I/O Fund is tracking:

  • Blue – AVGO completed wave 3 and is now in a deep wave 4 correction. The larger pattern has AVGO in an ending diagonal, which is a 5 wave pattern with deep retraces. If price goes below $212.50, the odds will favor this scenario, looking for a low between $198 – $169. This should give way to the final 5th wave swing to new highs.
  • Green – AVGO would be in a standard 5 wave pattern and only in wave 4 of 3. This means that it should find a low above $212.50, followed by at least 2 more swings to new highs. This is the most bullish interpretation of the price action, and should see a continued uptrend into 2025.
Broadcom Technical Chart

Broadcom (AVGO) broke out to new highs on heavy buying volume based on the results from their resent earnings report. Source: I/O Fund

There was significant institutional activity in the $250, $240, and $224 regions. As price is notable below these regions, it implies that institutions sold at the recent highs. If these levels contain any bounce, it will further confirm that the 3rd wave is over, which support the Blue count. If $212.50 does break, confirming this scenario, as long as the 4th wave drop holds $157, the I/O Fund would see this drop as a buying opportunity.

Conclusion

Broadcom’s premium valuation coupled with a fraction of Nvidia’s AI revenue —- not to mention flat QoQ AI revenue growth for nearly three quarters —- is why this is not yet Broadcom’s Nvidia moment. Broadcom must now prove to the market that it can deliver on its promise and maintain its premium to the undisputed AI leader heading into 2025 with Blackwell’s fireworks show about to start.

Supply chain and demand signals point to 2025 being another strong year for Nvidia as Blackwell comes to market, with the I/O Fund tracking these data points to assess Nvidia’s growth potential in the year to come. The I/O Fund is also closely analyzing the supply chain to identify overlooked beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout, sharing this information as well as buy and sell plans and real time trade alerts with premium members. The I/O Fund recently entered two separate beneficiaries for gains of 23% and 17% since November. Learn more here.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Posted in Semiconductor Stocks, SoftwareLeave a Comment on This Is Not Broadcom’s ‘Nvidia Moment’ Yet

Micron Q1: Data Center Revenue Surges 40% QoQ but Consumer Weak

Posted on December 19, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Micron reported surging data center growth up 400% YoY and 40% QoQ, with data center revenue mix surpassing 50% of Micron’s revenue for the first time. The Compute and Networking Business Unit reported revenue growth of 46% QoQ and was up 153% YoY for revenue of $4.4 billion.

An analyst did some digging around on the call and came up with the number of $800 million to $900 million coming from HBM: “You guys don't report HBM revenue [..] But based on everything you've said over the past couple of quarters, we're sort of estimating you did, I don't know, $800 million, $900 million in revenue in the quarter.”

Despite Micron’s data center revenue surging this quarter, the comments about the consumer recovery taking longer tanked the stock. Management is expecting these segments to resume around May of next year, which clearly wasn’t strong enough commentary to sustain the stock after hours.

We closed the bulk of the position because semis are breaking support across the board right now, and the broad market also broke critical support today following the FED meeting. An earnings call that focused on consumer weakness throws fuel on the fire.

The headline numbers are that Micron reported fiscal Q1 revenue nearly in line with consensus at $8.70 billion, yet it forecast Q2 revenue to decline nearly 10% sequentially to $7.9 billion, well below the $8.97 billion consensus estimate. The CEO acknowledged that consumer-facing markets and NAND were weaker in the near term and weighing on growth.

Micron also shared some positive details on the DRAM/HBM side, sharing that its HBM3E is shipping with Nvidia’s B200 and GB200s, with high volume shipments to its second large customer commencing this quarter and shipments to a third customer beginning in calendar Q1 2025. Management also elaborated on the long-term growth runway for HBM4 and HBM4e.

Revenue

Revenue of $8.71 billion increased 84.3% YoY and met consensus estimates. Management said that they “achieved new records in both total data center revenue and the revenue mix for data center in fiscal Q1,” with data center revenue rising 40% QoQ and 400% YoY.

For Q2, Micron guided far below consensus, seeing revenue of $7.9 billion, +/- $200 million, versus estimates for $8.97 billion. This corresponds to a sequential decline of (9.3%), whereas analysts had expected to see 3.1% sequential growth. The YoY growth is thus expected to decelerate to 35.7% in Q2, a much sharper deceleration than the expected 55.4% YoY growth next quarter.

Micron offered some commentary as to the unexpectedly weak guide:

“We had previously shared our expectation that customer inventory reductions in the consumer-oriented segments and seasonality would impact fiscal Q2 bit shipments. We are now seeing a more pronounced impact of customer inventory reductions; fiscal Q2 bit shipment outlook is weaker than we previously expected.”

Micron expects this transition period to be “relatively brief” with inventories getting healthier by the early part of 2025, setting up for stronger bit shipments in the second half of the fiscal year. Management also reiterated that they remain on track to hit HBM targets and deliver a “substantial” revenue record with “significantly improved profitability” this fiscal year, though the degree of that comes into question with the large guide lower.

Key Segments

DRAM is the AI-related high bandwidth memory (HBM) segment. DRAM revenue increased 20% QoQ and 88% YoY to $6.4 billion, decelerating slightly from 93% YoY growth last quarter. DRAM ASPs rose in the high single-digit % QoQ while bit shipments rose in the low double-digit % QoQ.

NAND revenue declined (5%) QoQ but increased 83% YoY to $2.2 billion. Both ASPs and bit shipments declined in the low single-digit % QoQ. NAND is where a majority of Micron’s issues are arising at the moment, with management saying they expect a “meaningful decline” in bit shipments in Q2 and growth resuming in the back half of the year. NAND conditions are impacting Q2’s gross margins to a degree, while management also expects underloading in NAND to continue to impact gross margins in Q3.

Here is what was stated regarding a mismatch between inventory and demand: “It’s more that they have built inventory and therefore, their purchases are less than their sell-through. And we saw that the inventories improved in CQ4 and we expect them to improve further in CQ1 time frame.”

Industry-wide NAND bit demand growth in 2024 and 2025 is now seen in the low double-digit percentage range, lower than management’s prior expectations, with Micron cutting back on NAND technology upgrades and cutting some supply to align with demand signals.

Regarding what is driving the higher NAND inventories, the following was shared on a more granular level in terms of devices versus data center, plus the comment below provided clarity that high NAND inventories will cause margin compression as far out as Q3.

“First, as Sanjay mentioned, the NAND industry market conditions were weaker than we had expected and that consumer market, PC, smartphones demand is weaker and inventory adjustments are occurring. Secondly, NAND data center SSD volumes moderated. And so there’s this period of digestion. And that was, as we know, higher-margin NAND business. So those two things are the principal driver. Of course, with revenue down in the guide $800 million we see some negative leverage effects on ongoing period costs, but those costs do not include underload charges in the second quarter. So those charges will begin to affect us in the third quarter.”

Margins

Gross margins were reported in line with management’s guidance and are slowly expanding as AI-related HBM3 results in higher margins – which is rare as AI chips and some hardware weighs on other companies (outside of NVDA). Per the opening remarks: “In fiscal Q1, our HBM gross margins were significantly accretive to both DRAM and overall company gross margins.”

The operating margins were ahead of guidance due to tight cost control.

  • GAAP gross margin was 38.4%, up 3.1 percentage points QoQ and more than 39 points YoY. Adjusted gross margin was 39.5%, up 3 percentage points QoQ and nearly 31 points YoY.
  • For Q2, due to the aforementioned NAND weakness, gross margins are projected to decline ~1 percentage point QoQ, with GAAP gross margin seen at 37.5% and adjusted gross margin at 38.5%. Per the commentary on the call: “We expect fiscal Q2 gross margins to be impacted by NAND industry conditions, partly offset by continued growth in HBM and data center DRAM. In addition to these factors, we expect NAND under loading to affect fiscal Q3 gross margins.”
  • GAAP operating margin was 25.0% (ahead of guidance for 24.6%), up 5.4 percentage points QoQ and nearly 49 points YoY. Adjusted operating margin was 27.5%, up 5 percentage points QoQ and nearly 48 points YoY.
  • Due to the impacts from NAND, operating margins are forecast to contract in Q2, with GAAP operating margin declining 3.2 percentage points to 21.8% and adjusted operating margin declining 2.9 percentage points to 24.6%.
  • GAAP net margin was 21.5%, up more than 47 percentage points YoY and 11.1 percentage points QoQ as net income more than doubled sequentially to $1.87 billion. Adjusted net margin was 23.4%, up more than 45 percentage points YoY and 6.1 points QoQ.

EPS

Profitability significantly improved in Q1, with GAAP net income rising 111% QoQ to $1.87 billion. GAAP EPS was $1.67, more than double the $0.79 from last quarter and a major improvement from the loss of ($1.10) in the year ago quarter.

Adjusted EPS of $1.79 was up more than 51% QoQ from $1.18, and also marked a major turnaround from a ($0.95) loss a year ago.

For Q2, given the margin contractions, both GAAP EPS and adjusted EPS are forecast to decline quite substantially. GAAP EPS was guided at $1.26, +/- $0.10, and adjusted EPS was guided at $1.43, +/- $0.10, well below the $1.96 expected by analysts.

Cash and Balance Sheet

Operating cash flow generation remained strong for a third quarter with OCF margin above 35%. Free cash flow generation was limited in the quarter due to $3.1 billion in capex. Micron noted that it expects FY25 capex to be $14 billion, +/- $500 million, primarily to support HBM.

  • Operating cash flow of $3.24 billion rose more than 130% YoY. OCF margin was 37.3%, down slightly from 43.6% in Q4 but up from 29.6% in the year ago quarter.
  • Adjusted FCF was $112 million, due to Micron’s capex spend in the quarter. Adjusted FCF margin was 1.3%, down from 4.2% in Q4 but improving from (7%) in the year ago quarter.
  • Inventory totaled $8.71 billion.
  • Cash and equivalents totaled $8.74 billion, while debt totaled $13.79 billion.

Earlier this month, Micron finalized an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for an award of up to $6.1 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act to support advanced DRAM manufacturing fabs in Idaho and New York. The company also plans to expand its fab in Virginia and Singapore.

Business Segments

Compute and Networking (CNBU)Compute and Networking (CNBU)

Compute and Networking revenue rose more than 153% YoY and 46% QoQ to a record $4.4 billion, comprising more than 50% of Micron’s sales for the first time. Management said the unit’s strength was “driven by cloud server DRAM demand, as well as HBM revenues, which more than doubled sequentially in the quarter.”

Micron was quite optimistic of the opportunity in HBM, both in the near future and the longer-term. Management said that its HBM revenue more than doubled QoQ on solid execution on yield and capacity ramps, with multiple billions in HBM revenue still expected in fiscal 2025. HBM remained “significantly accretive to both DRAM and overall company gross margins” in the quarter.

Additionally, management also increased their HBM TAM forecast for calendar 2025, now seeing the opportunity at $30 billion, a 20% increase from their previous view from $25 billion. In the longer-term, management expects HBM’s TAM to reach $64 billion by 2028 and $100 billion by 2030, or larger than the entire DRAM industry (incl. HBM) in 2023.

Mobile (MBU)Mobile (MBU)

Mobile revenue declined (19%) QoQ but rose approximately 16% YoY to $1.5 billion, with inventory optimization in Micron’s mobile customers a key theme of the quarter. Micron said that due to the inventory management from customers, it pivoted supply to meet data center demand. Smartphone customer shipments are expected to be weighted to the second half of the fiscal year.

Embedded (EBU)Embedded (EBU)

Embedded revenue declined (10%) QoQ and up in the single digits YoY, as automotive, industrial and consumer customers continued with inventory management.

Storage (SBU)Storage (SBU)

Storage revenue rose 3% QoQ but accelerated to 160% YoY to $1.7 billion, a new quarterly record, driven by data center SSDs. Micron said its 9550 PCIe Gen5 data center SSDs were qualified for the recommended vendor list for Nvidia’s GB200 NVL72 system, offering 34% higher throughput and over 80% lower energy per terabyte of data transfer versus competing products.

Management added that they expect “to generate multiple billions of dollars in data center SSD revenue in fiscal 2025 and to grow our market share once again in calendar 2025.” However, they did provide a hint of caution to not expect triple-digit growth to continue the entire year, saying they see “temporary moderation in near-term data center SSD purchases by customers after several quarters of very rapid growth.”

Earnings Call Q&A Notes:

The AI-related segments had bullish commentary while the consumer commentary was bearish. As stated in the introduction, the combination of catching the market off guard following a negative surprise from the FED was not ideal. The tone around the two customer end markets of data center versus consumer were sharply bifurcated.

Bullish HBM3e Commentary and HBM4:

Management pointed out they are raising their view of server unit percentage growth for the current year and they “anticipate server unit growth to continue in 2025.” The CEO also stated that HBM has exceeded their plans due to “solid execution on yield and capacity ramps.”

The company also stated “We are proud to share that Micron’s HBM3E 8H is designed into NVIDIA’s Blackwell B200 and GB200 platforms. Micron’s HBM3E operates at full speed while maintaining leadership in power efficiency”

They also stated there are more customers on the way: “This month, we commenced high-volume shipments to our second large HBM customer and will start high-volume shipments to our third large customer in CQ1, expanding our HBM customer base. We continue to receive positive feedback from our leading customers for Micron’s HBM3E 12H best-in-class power consumption, which is 20% lower than the competition’s HBM3E 8H, even as the Micron product delivers 50% higher memory capacity and industry-leading performance.”

Regarding the next catalyst, which is HBM4, Micron stated this should be available in calendar year 2026:

“Leveraging the strong foundation and continued investments in proven 1-beta process technology, we expect Micron’s HBM4 will maintain time to market and power efficiency leadership while boosting performance by over 50% over HBM3E. We expect HBM4 to ramp in high volume for the industry in calendar 2026.”

Bearish Consumer Commentary:

Regarding the more bearish consumer commentary, one question in the Q&A really drove at the heart of what is on the Street’s mind right now, which is why the sudden negative surprise in guidance? The exchange was long, and normally I would abbreviate it, but the stock is down considerably right now and this Q&A excerpt summarizes what is driving the negative price reaction:

Chris Caso

Yes. Hi. I guess the first question is, maybe just some clarity on what may have precipitated some of the cautious — some of the incremental caution here and what might have changed over the last couple of months? I know that is kind of back and forth a little bit, there were some cautious signs kind of back in August and they kind of received in the last earnings call. Was it — I guess the question is, is it a function of the customer inventories turned out to be a bit more than we had expected or do you think it was a function of demand?

Sumit Sadana

Yeah. Let me try to maybe address what changed. So, if you think about over the course of CQ4, we have seen a pushout of the PC refresh cycle that our customers had been anticipating, we had been anticipating. And it's not like the refresh cycle won't happen. It will happen in 2025. It just been a little bit delayed. There are numerous drivers which we mentioned in our prepared remarks as to why we believe and our customers believe that the refresh cycle will happen […]

But the delay in that upgrade cycle means that our calendar '24 PC shipment forecast at the unit level for PCs at our end customers has been reduced and is now very flattish year-over-year in calendar '24, so that has been one driver. The other is that definitely the inventories that we had highlighted in the last earnings call, that we expected by spring would become healthier at our customers, that inventory and inventory reduction as well as the seasonality of CQ1, those are continuing impacts. Some impact coming from the moderation.

You mentioned — previous discussion we just had a short while ago about lumpiness of demand on the data center SSD side. So some moderation in data center SSD into CQ1 after significant bout of buying over several quarters in calendar '24. So those are the things that have impacted the near-term outlook. But I just wanted to mention that most of the impact is limited to consumer-oriented segments, and the trajectory of demand in the data center continues to be very robust. Our own data center segment view of the overall revenue trajectory through fiscal '25, calendar '25 remains in a very solid trajectory.

You have seen our F Q1 results as well that we highlighted. So it's mainly the consumer-oriented segments and some very temporary moderation of the data center SSD, which we expect will pick up again in a couple of months. And so if you think about just these consumer-oriented segments, we do expect that by spring time, the inventories will be much healthier. And then we are back to shipment growth because right now, we are shipping to these customers at a rate that is lower than their ship out because they are consuming DRAM and NAND at a faster rate than they're purchasing from us and from the industry.

So that's the effect of the inventory that we expect will be in a much healthier place by spring and then a resumption of shipments and growth in shipments for the second half of the fiscal year and then things will be much better. And overall, DRAM will be continuing to be in a much healthier place. The supply is tight. HBM continues to pressure non-HBM availability of supply. So a large part of the issue is NAND related, and we have outlined the actions we are taking on the supply there to decisively bring our supply and balance with the demand.”

Conclusion:

It’s quite clear something important is going on with this stock given the surging data center revenue (the highest AI/DC-related growth percentage we saw from any company this quarter – if you strip out MU’s data center’s 400% YoY growth and 40% QoQ growth, it even beat high-flier ALAB on growth percentages), yet the market will not be forgiving to a company that is guiding for nearly 6-months of a soft consumer in its NAND segment on the very day the FED disappointed by announcing fewer rate cuts next year. Had Micron warned the market appropriately, the stock might be doing better right now. The market greatly dislikes surprises, and Micron provided a negative surprise about the consumer in a fairly pronounced manner this evening.

We saw critical support break in the S&P 500, of which are Members have been aptly warned about for months with non-stop coverage in Knox’s weekly webinars with the exact level that needs to hold. We have a plan for when the market goes up, and we have a plan for when the market goes down. For now, it’s the latter that is in play until the broad market says otherwise. There are other consumer-facing semis we may need to trim should the selloff sustain, please keep an eye out on your trade alerts.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

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Posted in Semiconductor StocksLeave a Comment on Micron Q1: Data Center Revenue Surges 40% QoQ but Consumer Weak

Semiconductor Stocks Exposed To China With Tariffs Incoming

Posted on December 17, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund
Semiconductor Stocks Exposed To China With Tariffs Incoming

This article was originally published on Forbes on Dec 12, 2024,02:47pm ESTForbesForbes on Dec 12, 2024,02:47pm EST

Semiconductor stocks will come into focus in 2025 as geopolitical tensions rise. China is likely to retaliate following Trump’s most recent threats of 10% additional tariffs to all Chinese goods. This escalation in tariffs and retaliation is expected to have an impact on semiconductor sales in China, particularly affecting chipmakers with higher exposure to China.

Nvidia, AMD and Micron have some of the lowest exposure among the leading chipmakers, while wafer fab equipment (WFE) manufacturers and Qualcomm have some of the highest exposure.

Tariffs to Impact Chipmakers, WFE Spending

Tariffs have not yet been implemented, yet the risks to the semiconductor industry and supply chain are already becoming visible.

A report from the Commercial Times highlighted that the supply chain is scrambling to secure product prior to early 2025, with segments such as “display panels, IC design, memory, and optical communications” seeing an increase in rush orders.

Optical firm Lianyi highlighted that telecom customers have “increased their efforts to replenish inventory at the end of the year, adding a wave of demand.” Additionally, to mitigate impacts of potential tariffs, some Chinese firms are attempting to shift production to Thailand and Vietnam, leading to longer supply times and additional order placements to secure enough supply. This comes as the US is continuing to implement stricter export restrictions on US-made chips to China, with the Commerce Department announcing restrictions on 24 types of chipmaking equipment, as well as bans on numerous Chinese firms.

As a result, wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending in China is expected to take a rather large hit next year. Wafer fab equipment (WFE) refers to the equipment used to process wafers into chips, through processes like etching, deposition, and through ultraviolet wavelengths in a process called EUV lithography.

Through the first half of 2024, China’s spending on WFE totaled more than $25 billion, putting it on track to spend $50 billion this year for the first time ever. For 2025, WFE spending is projected to drop below $40 billion, in line with 2023’s levels, and tracking for a -20% to -25% YoY decline. Some of the WFE manufacturers that are heavily exposed to China include ASML at nearly 50% of systems revenue year-to-date, and Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research at 37% to 43% of revenue.

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WFE Firms at Risk from Elevated China Exposure

In 2024, chipmaking equipment manufacturers had some of the highest exposure levels to China in the broader semiconductor industry, with ASML seeing China contribute nearly half of its systems revenue.

Here’s how the leading WFE manufacturers stack up in terms of exposure to China.

Chipmaking Equipment Manufacturer's China Exposure

Chipmaking equipment manufacturers had some of the highest exposure levels to China in the broader semiconductor industry, near or above 40% of revenue. Source: I/O Fund

More than 48% of ASML’s systems revenue year-to-date has come from China while Lam Research and KLA both see China contributing ~42% of total revenue. Applied Materials’ China exposure in fiscal 2024 was slightly lower at 37%. This is a rather steep increase from the 26% to 29% range from fiscal 2023 for all four companies.

This year-over-year surge in China revenue to elevated levels presents significant risk as export restrictions and tariffs combine as two primary headwinds. As a result of these two threats, as well as declining WFE spending and declining domestic utilization rates weighing on the equipment market’s growth, China exposure is expected is decline dramatically next year.

Take ASML as an example. So far in 2024 (Q1 to Q3), China has accounted for $7.06 billion of its $14.56 billion in systems revenue. For the full year, China is expected to maintain this contribution level in the high-40% range, before dropping to 20% in 2025. This suggests China revenue could decline approximately -33% YoY to ~$7 billion. Applied Materials has just over $10 billion in revenue from China, Lam has over $6 billion, and KLA has over $4 billion, exposing the trio to hundreds of millions to billion-dollar losses in revenue streams should China revenue decline in the double-digits next year.

On the other hand, some of the market’s leading AI players have the lowest China exposure, with less than 20% of revenue from China.

Nvidia Among AI Favorites with the Lowest China Revenue

Despite being the subject of some of the strictest export restrictions for its leading AI GPUs, Nvidia has some of the lowest exposure to China as a percentage of revenue, alongside competitor AMD and key suppliers Micron and TSMC.

In its most recent quarter, Nvidia’s China (and Hong Kong) revenue rose 34.4% YoY to $5.42 billion, as it “ramped new products designed specifically for China that do not require an export control license.” As a percentage of revenue, China accounted for 15.4% of revenue, up from 12.2% in Q2 and 9.6% in Q1.

Nvidia China Revenue

China accounted for 15.4% of revenue for Nvidia in Q3, up from 12.2% in Q2 and 9.6% in Q1. Source: I/O Fund

Even with this acceleration in China revenue since Nvidia was hit with export restrictions in Q4 2023, China’s contribution remains lower than historical levels, in the low 20% region. Nvidia’s upcoming GB200 NVL36, NVL72, and B200 all face export restrictions and require licenses to ship to China, while the A100, A800, H100, H800, L4, L40, L40S, and RTX 4090 have already been restricted. This means that moving forward, China’s growth will continue to primarily come from China-specific products rather to those that could be subject to restrictions.

AMD and Micron similarly have low revenue exposure from China and restrictions in place preventing sales of certain chips to the region. Certain variants of AMD’s Instinct GPUs and Versal FPGAs are restricted from being sold to China, while China banned Micron from key infrastructure products in 2023 due to national security risks.

For fiscal 2023, AMD’s China revenue was approximately 15% of revenue, down from 22% in fiscal 2022. AMD has not provided any quarterly updates on China revenue through FY24, though management said last quarter that they are “underrepresented in China market in the server CPU side,” with opportunities to gain share.

Micron’s China exposure has hovered in the 16% of revenue range for FY22 through FY24, due to bans from China limiting its growth in the nation. While the low exposure to China may seem like a positive, Micron faces competitive headwinds and pressure from Chinese firms in its primary markets. Analysts questioned management about China capacity hitting the market, and if it would have any impacts on Micron’s business. Management acknowledged that there has been China capacity in the market, saying that it is “primarily limited to China-oriented, China-exported customers who are using some of that supply or attempting to use it” for lower performance categories such as DDR4, LP4 and lower end NAND. However, they noted that they are focusing on the “higher profit pools” of DRAM and NAND such as HBM, LP5, and data center SSDs, so the “portion of the business that's exposed to those kinds of trends in China are really becoming smaller as a percent of our revenue over time.”

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is exposed to a different realm of geopolitical risk due to its concentration in Taiwan, though it has faced some pressure from the US to restrict sales to China, which are quite low. Earlier in November, TSMC halted advanced chip shipments of 7nm and below to Chinese AI and GPU customers, viewed as a temporary strategy to comply with the United States government. The US reportedly believed that a sanctioned Chinese firm placed orders with TSMC via a middleman, and is attempting to crack down on this; TechNode reports that if these loopholes are closed, TSMC will be one of the most affected. Additionally, the US is seeking to place blanket restrictions on 7nm and below shipments to China, which TSMC is hoping will only be for Chinese AI customers, and not smartphone, as that would have a more substantial impact – Apple and Qualcomm are two primary customers with large smartphone revenue streams in China.

In FY23, China accounted for just under 12.5% of TSMC’s revenue, up from the 10-11% level from the prior two years. Of the major semiconductor players in the market, TSMC has the lowest exposure to China, less than Nvidia, AMD and Micron.

Here’s how the four stack up against some of the other more-AI exposed chipmakers.

Chipmaker's China Revenue Exposure

Nvidia, AMD, and Micron are among the leading AI-exposed chipmakers with the lowest revenue contribution, while Qualcomm and Broadcom are among the highest. Source: I/O Fund

Two names stand out here for its elevated exposure to China – Qualcomm and Broadcom.

In FY24, Qualcomm generated nearly 46% of its revenue from China, a significant improvement from China’s contribution of 67% of its revenue just three years ago. Qualcomm is seeing strong growth emerge from China from both smartphone and auto customers, noting that in Q1, QCT handset revenue is expected to grow single digits YoY driven by “greater than 40% sequential revenue growth from Chinese OEMs.”

Broadcom generated over 32% of its revenue from China in FY23, down from the 35% range it had seen in three of the prior four years — much of this exposure to China stems from Apple. What’s interesting about Broadcom’s situation is that it believes that a majority of the products shipped to China ($11.5 billion revenue in FY23) are included in devices shipped back to the US or Europe, exposing it potentially to two-way tariffs, to China and from China.

Every Thursday at 4:30 pm Eastern, the I/O Fund team holds a webinar for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock entries and exits. We offer trade alerts plus an automated hedging signal. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. Learn more here.Learn more hereLearn more here.

What Tariffs Mean for Semiconductor Stocks

As tariffs risks rise with additional tariffs likely to be placed on China, and China threatening to retaliate with a 20% price cut advantage for domestic goods. Experts say the new policy will also affect US products sold in China, potentially impacting chipmakers with substantial Chinese revenue streams if they cannot outcompete domestic alternatives.

What this means is that not only will semiconductors face geopolitical risks from tariff threats and a possible trade war, but they will also face a tougher selling climate in China as the country pushes for more domestic production towards its goal for 70% semiconductor self-sufficiency by the end of 2025.

For Nvidia, although its share of China revenue is quite low at 15%, the country is a $20 billion plus market for them due to their rapid revenue growth, whereas for AMD, China was not even a $3.5 billion market in FY23. Though China’s 20% price advantage policy aims to promote domestic alternatives to US products, China is still hard-pressed to find a suitable alternative to Nvidia’s GPUs, with Huawei’s Ascend 910B only rivaling Nvidia’s A100 released four years ago.

For companies like ASML, and its peers in WFE manufacturing, where China contributes 40% or more of revenue, the backdrop gets a bit more challenging as WFE spending in China is estimated to dry up slightly next year, with spending potentially dropping -25% YoY. These companies will in turn have to rely on growth in the Americas and leading-edge nodes to offset declining (or normalizing) China contribution.

This is a scenario that brings a lot of ‘what-ifs’ to the table, as it’s impossible to predict what exactly will happen come 2025 when it comes to tariffs and when it comes to Chinese revenue streams. At the moment, the geopolitical risk is rising for semiconductors from these retaliatory threats, and it could create some better entry points for AI semis next year. To navigate this difficult territory, join Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley next Thursday, December 19 at 4:30 pm EST to discuss semis, SOXX versus the S&P 500, and what he sees ahead for some of the leading AI chip stocks in the market. Learn more here.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own shares in NVDA at the time of writing and may own stocks pictured in the charts.

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Posted in China Stocks, Semiconductor StocksLeave a Comment on Semiconductor Stocks Exposed To China With Tariffs Incoming

AOSL Q1 2025: Foreshadowing Consumer Weakness

Posted on November 5, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund

This quarter, Alpha and Omega reported a beat in Q1, yet gross margins are contracting due to eroding average sales prices (ASPs). AOSL guided Q2 below consensus with further margin pressures for both gross and operating margin. The commentary implies a weak Q4, one that is weaker this year than it was last year, despite 2024 largely being an expected rebound year.

Regarding AOSL’s partners, it seems that AMD’s beat on desktop is flowing through to AOSL, with management stating desktop helped offset laptop weakness. Although there is bound to be progress in the graphic cards and AI accelerator cards eventually, the emerging AI use case is less clear in this quarter as these both took “a pause before the next platform transition.”

Our firm is weighing sitting a quarter or two out on AOSL, but it’s worth noting management reiterated the bullish comment about bill-of-materials expected to increase from $5 to $6 for MOSFETS to up to $20 for the MOSFETs powering GPUs.

This and more is detailed below.

Revenue

Due to consumer weakness, AOSL missed revenue guidance for the December quarter. The company was expected to report 6.3% growth for revenue of $175.7 million, and is instead guiding for 2.8% growth for revenue of $170 million. This was more than $5 million below the analyst estimates.

This quarter ending in September, AOSL reported $181.9 million in revenue in fiscal Q1, up 0.7% YoY and ahead of expectations by $1.3 million. AOSL reported YoY growth in the quarter despite expectations for a marginal YoY decline.

The miss for next quarter is primarily due to an erosion in average sales prices, as the CFO stated: “During the quarter, we did see increased pricing pressure. I mean, I guess this is a reflection of softer overall market recovery. Competitors impacted by inventory correction and demand slowdown, especially in automotive and industrial. They're shifting more toward consumer-related markets to fill their fabs.

So we see increased competition from all players, large or small. Right now, I mean, the ASP erosion for this year is more trending toward high single-digits annual erosion versus typical mid to high single-digits. Here, what we want to do is to accelerate our new product rollout to counter the ASP erosion. So that has been what we have been doing all along the years.”

Looking forward, AOSL seemed to imply that it would be more of a calendar Q2 turnaround with comments that they lack visibility into 2025 (which is not exactly encouraging): “At this point, our visibility into 2025 is limited and the calendar first quarter of 2025 is typically seasonally soft as well.”

Margins

Q1’s report missed on the guided gross margin and guided adjusted gross margin, at the midpoint. Management is also guiding for further contraction on gross margin next quarter and also a contraction on the operating margin next quarter. As stated above, the weaker gross margin is due to lower average sales prices.

  • GAAP gross margin was 24.5%, slightly below guidance for 25% at midpoint and contracting 120 bp QoQ and 370 bp YoY. Adjusted gross margin was 25.5%, below guidance for 26.4%, and contracting 90 bp QoQ and 330 bp YoY. Management said the contraction in adjusted gross margin was “mainly impacted by ASP erosion and mix changes.”
  • GAAP operating margin was (0.1%), improving from (0.9%) last quarter and ahead of guidance for (1.1%); however, this was a 530 bp YoY contraction from 5.2% in Q1 FY2024. Adjusted operating margin was 4.4%, improving from 2.0% last quarter but contracting from 6.2% in the year ago quarter.
  • GAAP net margin was (1.4%), improving from (1.7%) last quarter but down from 3.2% in the year ago quarter. Adjusted net margin was 3.5%, improving from 1.6% last quarter but down from 5.5% in the year ago quarter.

Looking ahead, management forecast pressure on margins across the board in Q2:

  • GAAP gross margin was guided at 24.0%, +/- 1%, for a 50 bp QoQ and 260 bp YoY contraction. Adjusted gross margin was guided at 25.0%, +/- 1%, for a 50 bp QoQ and 300 bp YoY contraction.
  • Based on operating expenses guidance, GAAP operating margin is expected to be (2.5%), down 240 bp QoQ and 180 bp YoY. Adjusted operating margin is expected to be 2.2%, down 220 bp QoQ and 290 bp YoY.

EPS

Given the margin weakness, AOSL slightly missed EPS expectations.

  • Adjusted EPS of $0.21 missed expectations by $0.01.
  • For Q2, analyst estimates were at $0.21 heading in to Q1’s report, but given the below-consensus revenue guide and forecast for margin contractions at the gross and operating level, it’s likely that Q2 adjusted EPS estimates will be revised downward in the coming days.
  • GAAP EPS of ($0.09) missed estimates of ($0.02).

Cash and Balance Sheet

Operating cash flow remained strong despite weaker margins, while cash on hand was relatively unchanged QoQ.

  • Operating cash flow was $11.0 million, down (20%) YoY but up 55% QoQ. OCF margin was 6.0%, down from 7.7% in Q1 FY2024 but up from 4.4% last quarter.
  • Free cash flow was ~$4.3 million, for a FCF margin of 2.4%, versus 0.7% in the year ago quarter and (0.1%) last quarter.
  • Cash and equivalents totaled $176.0 million.
  • Debt totaled $35.5 million.
  • Net inventory decreased by $10.8 million QoQ to ~$184.7 million.

Key Segments

Computing

Computing revenue increased 8.6% YoY and 6.6% QoQ to ~$76.3 million. This marked a dramatic deceleration from 37.6% growth Q4, despite coming against a rather weak comp of (21.2%) YoY in Q1 FY2024.

Management said the company “saw relative strength from PC desktops, notebooks, and servers, which was offset by softer graphics and A.I.- accelerator cards due to a pause before the next platform transition.” Reading between the lines suggests that this is another reference to Nvidia’s Blackwell platform, ahead of its launch; however, it is a bit odd to see some softness given the channel checks we have imply very strong demand for Blackwell.

Management further added that their “backlog for both graphics cards and A.I. accelerator cards is now growing due to the new platform transition,” and they expect BOM (bill-of-material) content “to increase as more power stage ICs, paired with our controller, are being used to power the GPU.”

For the December quarter, AOSL guided to slight sequential growth due to “share gains in desktops, as well as strength in graphics cards and servers,” while seasonal slowdowns were expected in PCs, notebooks, and tablets.

Management also hinted at some larger announcements next quarter, saying “we are collaborating with customers on larger data center opportunities slated for 2025. We anticipate having more to talk about with these developments during our next earnings report.”

Consumer

Consumer revenue increased 2.0% YoY and 12.4% QoQ to ~$31.7 million. While this marked a return to growth in the segment, it may be short lived, with management forecasting a near (30%) sequential decline in Q2.

For Q1, management said that the results “were in-line with our forecast for low double digit sequential growth and were primarily driven by gaming, wearables, and TVs, offset by a decline in home appliances.” Given the strength in gaming, management believes that the inventory correction has passed, but demand and “meaningful growth” may not arise until the next platform transition. Management also said wearables “were a notable standout” in Q1.

Looking ahead to the December quarter, as previously mentioned, management forecast a nearly (30%) QoQ decline due to seasonal gaming and TV declines, alongside softness in home appliances.

Communications

Communications revenue rose 14.2% YoY and 29.4% QoQ to ~$35.5 million, ahead of expectations for double-digit QoQ growth as its Tier-1 US smartphone customer geared up for a new product launch, alongside “strong sequential growth from China OEMs.”

For Q2, management expects “a low double-digit sequential decline in the December quarter due to seasonality and overall limited visibility on smartphone sell through heading into next year.”

Power Supply and Industrial

Power Supply and Industrial revenue declined (23.7%) YoY but rose 15.6% QoQ to ~$31.8 million, driven by “seasonal strength in AC-DC power supplies and quick chargers.”

Looking ahead, management expects the segment “to grow low single digits sequentially primarily driven by e-mobility and continued growth from quick chargers,” with more opportunities ahead in 2025 for quick chargers “due to increased BOM content driven by higher charging currents.”

Earnings Call:

AI Accelerator Card Opportunity

Given we may step aside from the position until roughly Q2 time frame, it’s important to reiterate the bigger picture for AOSL. When an analyst asked about the dollar content across its socket opportunities, the CEO answered the following:

“[…] In general, I think you've heard us talking more about selling total solutions and this is one evidence of that happening in the market now and we can sell both the controller as well as the power stages. And in this case, in terms of BOM content, it's going to grow from what used to be maybe around $5 to $6. It can — and then going to the next platform, it can range anywhere from $7 to $15 to maybe even over $20 a content, depending upon the number the power or the level of the GPU being paired with.”

Guiding Below Seasonality for Consumer:

Although management referred to the QoQ decline as seasonal in the Consumer segment, there was a question on the call that pointed toward it being steeper than seasonal. Last year, the September quarter matched this quarter at about $31 million in revenue, yet the QoQ decline into December is steeper for 2024 than it was for 2023. This year’s QoQ decline is expected to be (30%) compared to last year’s at (24.4%). This especially matters considering 2024 was largely expected to improve for Consumer facing semiconductors.

Here was the question on the call – since the puts and takes here are critical to the stock, I’m including the full excerpt:

David Williams

Great. Just wanted to ask too on the seasonality. It looks like you're guiding down just a bit more than seasonality. Is it fair to assume that, maybe we're back to a place that we can expect kind of seasonal trends here, or is there still enough volatility out there that you think is too early to call?

Stephen Chang

I think for the standout markets that we've been in Computing and Consumer, that seasonal pattern has returned. But at the same time, the full recovery, especially for PCs hasn't come yet. We're still waiting for PC shipments to grow, I guess, for the replenishment cycles to come back again. Therefore, at least for the last few years, after the inventory correction of the previous year, right now, we're just waiting for the PC shipments to be able to grow more.

That said, we are not standing still and even in those in the PC markets, we're seeking to gain more BOM content as we sell more of a total solution going into that application. We do think that seasonally, yes, it's going to go through that cycle, where the September quarter is typically the peak because of back-to-school and the holiday seasons.

And then going into the March quarter is probably more of a trough when it comes to the PC shipments, but that should come back up again and going into the following year. We're hoping that, to be able to layer that in especially with our advances in the graphics card and AI-accelerator card side that can help to fill in the gap and layer in on top of what we see as our base business.

Conclusion:

There was an anticipated Consumer rebound this year, that according to management teams, is not materializing. AOSL is one of quite a few in the Consumer-facing supply chain saying we can’t meet analyst expectations. Apple also missed its Q4 guide at the midpoint, guiding for “low to mid-single digits” which implies lower than the 7% YoY growth analysts expected.

As you know, the I/O Fund leans cautious for the moment with cash as our largest position, which is not to say we aren’t bullish in the medium-term — but rather, the risk/reward for an all-tech portfolio is not where it was a year ago. Apparently, having a large cash position is popular at the moment.

We’ve had a stop in place for AOSL at $31.50 and the stock is trading a penny below that price in the after-hours. If the stock remains below this level, expect us to trim or exit depending on the price action. In terms of timing on our re-entry, we foresee this matching when we resume buying Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, TSM and some of the other AI bellwethers.

Recommended Reading:

  • AOSL Q1 FY2025 Pre-Earnings: Looking for Growth in December from Key Customers
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Posted in Semiconductor Stocks, Testing EquipmentLeave a Comment on AOSL Q1 2025: Foreshadowing Consumer Weakness

AOSL Q1 FY2025 Pre-Earnings: Looking for Growth in December from Key Customers

Posted on November 4, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Alpha & Omega Semiconductor will release its Q1 FY2025 results today. AOSL is expected to become a new GB200 supplier for Nvidia and to start shipments by the end of this year. Although AOSL does not call out Nvidia specifically on the earnings call, the announcement in June helps us infer that it’s likely Nvidia being spoken about on the call. The other catalyst is AOSL tie-ins to Intel’s Meteor Lake CPU and possible launch on its upcoming Panther Lake platform, as well as its position in development stages for AMD’s FP11 platform, positioning it for strong growth in this space.

Analysts expect FQ1 revenue to decline (-0.3%) YoY to $180.07 million, before it accelerates to 6.3% YoY growth in the December quarter, and further accelerates to 14.7% in the March quarter. Alpha and Omega’s four key segments recorded sequential growth in FQ4, with management saying this “broad-based” rebound “confirmed the inventory correction is largely complete.” They noted that PCs are “taking longer to recover than originally expected,” though sequential growth is still expected in the September quarter due to seasonal strength. Management has guided sequential growth in the four key segments for FQ1.

Revenue

Positive revenue growth is likely from the December quarter as inventory corrections are largely resolved.

  • FQ4 revenue declined by (-0.1%) YoY to $161.3 million. However, it was up 7.5% sequentially, with key segments growing sequentially. Management said that in Q4, they “saw relative strength coming from gaming, tablets, e-mobility, A.I., and home appliances, while the PC segment is taking longer to recover.”
  • Analysts expect FQ1 revenue to decline (-0.3%) YoY to $180.07 million and accelerate to 6.3% YoY growth to $175.67 million in FQ2 and 14.7% to $172.13 million in FQ3.

Stephen Chang, CEO, said in the earnings call, “Looking into the September quarter, we expect PCs and servers to grow sequentially while tablets sustain the strong current run rate within Computing. The Consumer segment will likely see continued strength in gaming and a strong seasonal pick up from wearables, offset by slower home appliances. Smartphones will drive sequential growth in Communication, while AC-DC power supplies and quick chargers are relatively stronger in Industrial.”

  • Analysts expect FY2025 revenue to grow 8% YoY to $709.53 million.
  • For FY2026, analysts expect revenue to grow 10.1% YoY to $781.33 million.

Margins

As FY2025 progresses, management expects margin improvement with higher revenue, better product mix, and higher factory utilization. Margins are contracting, and this is one reason we consider AOSL a momentum stock for now.

  • FQ4 gross margin was 25.7% compared to 27.6% in the same period last year and 23.7% in FQ3. Management guide for next quarter is 25%.
  • Adjusted gross margin was 26.4% compared to 28.5% in the same period last year and 25.2% in FQ3, the sequential improvement was primarily due to improved factory utilization. Management’s adjusted gross margin guide for next quarter is 26.4% compared to 28.8% in the same period last year.
  • FQ4’s operating margin was (-0.9%) compared to 1.6% in the same period last year. Management guide for the next quarter is (-1.1%).
  • Adjusted operating margin was 2% compared to 4.3% in the same period last year. Management guide for next quarter is 4.2% compared to 6.2% in the same period last year.

Yifan Liang, CFO said in the earnings call Q&A, “As you know, our September quarter's margin guidance, we guided a flattish than quarter-over-quarter. This is mainly because we expect similar quarter-over-quarter factory utilization and we plan to consume some inventories and reduce inventory balance in the September quarter. So other factors impacting the margin, like product mix and ASP erosion that we expect they're similar to the June quarter. So overall, we expect a flattish margin quarter-over-quarter for the September quarter.

So going forward, yes, I mean, I would expect and as we grow our revenue and then our product mix will continue to improve and then factory utilization will be higher. So those factors will be contributing to our margin improvement.”

  • Net loss was (-$2.7 million) or (-1.7%) of revenue compared to (-$1.1 million) or (-0.7%) of revenue in the same period last year. Adjusted net income was $2.6 million or 1.6% of revenue compared to $5.7 million or 3.5% of revenue in the same period last year.

EPS

The adjusted EPS estimates have been revised up from the estimates at the beginning of August, except for FY2026 adjusted EPS, which has been revised down from $1.51 to $1.28.

  • FQ4 adjusted EPS was $0.09 compared to $0.19 in the same period last year.
  • Analysts expect FQ1 adjusted EPS to be down (-33.3%) YoY to $0.22 and down (-13.9%) YoY to $0.21 in FQ2. However, these are higher than the estimates of $0.19 for FQ1 and $0.18 for FQ2 as of August 01st.
  • Analysts expect FY2025 ending June adjusted EPS to grow 24.7% YoY to $0.77.
  • For FY2026, they expect to grow 65.1% YoY to $1.28.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

The cash flow of this company (and most small caps) needs to be watched closely.

  • FQ4 operating cash flow was $7.1 million or 4.4% of revenue compared to (-17.5%) of revenue in the same period last year. Repayment of customer deposits was $4.5 million in FQ4, and management expects to refund about $8.4 million in FQ1.
  • Free cash outflow was (-$0.21 million) or (-0.1%) of revenue compared to (-29.3%) in the same period last year. Capex was $7.2 million in FQ4, and the management has guided $6 million to $8 million for FQ1.
  • Inventories were $195.8 million compared to $198.1 million in FQ3.
  • Cash was $175.1 million and debt of $38.36 million compared to $174.4 million and $41.2 million in FQ3. The company repaid $3.1 million of debt in FQ4.

Key Segments

Computing

Computing segment grew by 37.6% YoY and 4.4% QoQ to $71.6 million. Management said they saw “relative strength from tablets, A.I, and graphics cards in the quarter, offset by a slower PC market recovery. Notably, tablet revenue was a record high, and the contribution from A.I. and datacenter related applications continued to grow.” However, management said that the revenue was “slightly below our original expectation for mid-to-upper single digit growth,” primarily impacted by PCs.

Alpha and Omega expect FQ1 to see mid-single digit QoQ growth on a seasonal PC pickup, combined with strength from tablets, graphics cards, and AI accelerators. CEO Stephen Chang shed more light on some of the opportunities ahead: “We are working on multiple opportunities leveraging our existing relationship with a key graphics card maker, as well as our product portfolio including new multiphase Vcore controllers and power stage solutions for advanced computing. We are also seeing some ramp in September from a leading power supply maker that is a key supplier to the same A.I./graphics customer.”

Consumer

Consumer revenue declined (-35.5%) YoY but rebounded 19.7% QoQ to $28.2 million, as the segment looks to have marked a bottom in Q2. Management said it “is now clear that the inventory correction in gaming is behind us and a seasonal build is underway.”

Management guide: “For the September quarter, we forecast low double-digit sequential growth in the Consumer segment driven by strong seasonal pickup from wearables and continued strength in gaming, offset by slower home appliances.”

Communications

Communications segment revenue grew by 59% YoY and 2.1% QoQ to $27.4 million, driven by the “seasonal pick-up from a Tier 1 U.S. smartphone customer, offset by sequential declines from Korea and China OEMs.”

Management expects double-digit sequential growth in FQ1. “Looking ahead, we anticipate double-digit sequential growth in the September quarter on seasonal strength ahead of new smartphone launches in the U.S and increasing demand from China smartphone OEMs. We are benefitting from a mix shift to more premium phones and we anticipate rising growth in BOM content as phone makers increase battery charging currents.”

Power Supply and Industrial

Power Supply and Industrial revenue was down (-33.7%); however, it was up 11.3% sequentially to $27.6 million. The sequential growth was “driven by strength in the e-mobility segment for e-bikes and e-scooters and DC fans for applications in areas such as datacenters. The inventory correction in quick chargers appears complete as we also saw the beginnings of recovery in the June quarter.”

For FQ1, management expects the segment to grow sequentially 15-20% “primarily driven by a solid uptick from quick chargers, as well as strength from AC-DC power supplies tied to the seasonal build in PCs.”

Other Key Points to Watch

GB200 Supplier:

AOSL is expected to become a new GB200 supplier for Nvidia and to start shipments by the end of this year. Although AOSL does not call out Nvidia specifically on the earnings call, the announcement helps us infer that it’s likely Nvidia being spoken about on the calls. The only other option is that it’s AMD.

AOSL sells MOSFETs that go into bus converters for DC-to-DC power conversion. AOSL works with a leading power supply company that, in turn, supplies the unnamed AI/graphic customer, plus the company supplies the unnamed AI/graphic company directly. AOSL supplies the MOSFETs powering each GPU, and for the upcoming platform of this customer, AOSL will additionally sell the total solution controller and the multiphase controller. The number of MOSFETs is expected to triple from 9 to 16 up to 50 MOSFETs per GPU. We will be watching for new updates in the earnings call.

Margins

We want to see margins improve in the coming quarters. During the FQ4 earnings call Q&A, management reiterated its mid-term target of above 30% non-GAAP gross margin with a target revenue goal of $1 billion. The adjusted gross margin was 30.2% for the FY2023 ending June and dropped to 27.2% for the FY2024 due to the continued inventory correction. Management confirmed during the FQ4 results that the “inventory correction is largely complete.”

David Williams (Analyst)

“Okay. Yes, that's really a great color. If I could just ask one last thing, kind of just thinking about how margins are going to change as your business kind of picks up into this new realm, are we going to see normalization back to kind of like historic peaks at around 30-ish, or is this sort of the new normal now with 25 to 28 kind of extending forward?

Stephen Chang (Executive)

Yes, I mean, our overall midterm target model is still above 30% non-GAAP gross margin with a target revenue goal of $1 billion. So that model will still stay. So we believe in the — when we continue to grow, then incremental business, we expect we can bring in the better product mix. So that would help us improve the gross margin gradually. Also, those incremental business would help us increase our utilization at factories.”

Valuation

The company is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 42.8. The P/S ratio peaked in March 2022 when the quarterly revenue was close to $200 million, GAAP profitable, and before the PC inventory correction. The current P/S ratio is 1.45, and the forward P/S ratio is 1.35. It is trading above the five-year average P/S ratio of 1.2.

Conclusion

AOSL is a momentum stock in which we are using technical analysis to the fullest, and we plan to follow our stops. Our goal is to participate in opportunities where small-cap suppliers expand their serviceable addressable market (SAM) as AI systems increase in complexity. However, given the weakness we’ve seen in SMH, it could be a tall order for AOSL to overcome the selloff we’ve seen in the larger semis. But we also want to give AOSL an opportunity to report any progress from key customers. Therefore, anything is possible following the earnings call – we could close the position or add to it.

Royston Roche, Equity Analyst at the I/O Fund, contributed to this article.

Recommended Reading:

  • Coinbase Q3 24: Strong Cash and Adjusted EBITDA; Technicals Matter
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  • Alpha & Omega Q4: Revenue in Line, All Segments Rebound Sequentially
Posted in Semiconductor Stocks, Testing EquipmentLeave a Comment on AOSL Q1 FY2025 Pre-Earnings: Looking for Growth in December from Key Customers

TSMC Q3 2024 Earnings: Strong results led by AI demand

Posted on October 17, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund

TSMC Q3 results beat across the board, helped by strong demand for AI chips. Revenue grew 36% YoY to $23.5 billion and beat the management guide of $22.4 billion to $23.2 billion. The bottom line was even stronger, as EPS grew by 50.4% YoY to $1.94, beating analysts’ estimates by 8.6%. Management also raised the full-year revenue guidance from above mid-20% to close to 30%, primarily due to the robust demand for AI chips.

Revenue

Q3 revenue grew by 36% YoY and 12.9% QoQ to $23.5 billion, beating the management guide of $22.4 billion to $23.2 billion. The strong revenue growth was primarily helped by demand for AI and smartphone chips.

  • Management guide for the next quarter is $26.1 billion to $26.9 billion, representing a YoY growth of 35.1% and 12.8% sequential growth at the mid-point.
  • Management raised the full-year revenue guidance from above mid-20% to close to 30%. By calculating the Q4 guide, the FY 2024 revenue is expected to grow 29.4% YoY to $89.69 billion in US dollar terms.

C.C. Wei, Vice Chairman and CEO, said in the earnings call, “Moving into fourth quarter, we expect our business to continue to be supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies. We continue to observe extremely robust AI-related demand from our customers throughout the second half of 2024, leading to increasing overall capacity utilization rate for our leading-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer process technologies.”

Due to the technological leadership, the company is able to capture robust demand for the most advanced AI chips. The revenue contribution from server AI processors is expected to triple this year and will account for a mid-teens percentage of 2024 revenue. “At TSMC, we define server AI processor as GPUs, AI accelerators, and CPUs performing training and inference functions, and do not include networking, edge, or on-device AI. We now forecast the revenue contribution from server AI processors to more than triple this year and account for mid-teens percentage of our total revenue in 2024. Supported by our technology leadership and broader customer base, we are well-positioned to capture the industry's growth opportunities. We now forecast our full-year revenue to increase by close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms.”

Margins

Margins continue to expand due to cost controls, economies of scale, and better price negotiation with customers.

  • Q3 gross margin was 57.8%, up from 54.3% in the same period last year and 53.2% in Q2. It beat the management guide of 53.5% to 55.5%. The strong gross margin was due to better capacity utilization and cost improvements.
  • Management has guided Q4 gross margin to increase 20 basis points sequentially to 58% at the midpoint helped by higher capacity utilization, partially offset by dilution from N3 ramp, higher electricity prices in Taiwan, and N5 to N3 tool conversion cost.
  • Operating margin improved to 47.5% from 41.7% in the same period last year and 42.5% in Q2 due to operating leverage. Management guide for Q4 is 47.5% at the midpoint.
  • Net income grew by 52.4% YoY to $10.06 billion or 42.8% of revenue compared to 38.6% in the same period last year and 36.8% in Q2.

EPS

EPS grew by 50.4% YoY to $1.94, beating analysts’ estimates by 8.6% due to better capacity utilization, cost improvement and operating leverage.

  • Analysts expect Q4 EPS to grow 35.4% YoY to $1.95 and 26.1% YoY to $1.74 in Q1 2025.
  • EPS is expected to grow significantly. Analysts expect EPS to grow 26.8% YoY to $6.57 in 2024 and 29.2% YoY to $8.49 in 2025.

Cash Flows and Balance Sheet

The company’s financial stability is evident in its stable cash flow generation.

  • Q3 operating cash flow was $12.13 billion or 51.6% of revenue compared to $9.31 billion or 54% of revenue in the same period last year and 56.1% in Q2.
  • Free cash flow grew by 166% YoY to $5.72 billion or 24.4% of revenue compared to 12% of revenue in the same period last year and 25.5% of revenue in Q2. Capex was down (-9.9%) YoY to $6.4 billion.
  • Management expects capex to be slightly higher than $30 billion for 2024, revised down slightly from the previous guide of $30 billion to $32 billion. As the company continues to invest due to the expected strong AI growth, capex is likely to increase next year, and management mentioned that they will provide more details during the January earnings call.
  • Inventories were $9.26 billion compared to $8.39 billion in Q2. Inventory turnover days increased to 87 days from 83 days in Q2 due to the pre-build of N3 and N5 wafers.
  • Cash and marketable securities were $68.5 billion, and debt of $30.6 billion, compared to $63.05 billion and $30.4 billion in Q2.

Revenue by Platform

As the leading foundry for AI accelerators, TSMC is riding the enormous wave of demand from Big Tech. The chipmaker’s high-performance computing (HPC) revenues rose 11% QoQ to $11.99 billion and accounted for 51% of revenue, surpassing the 50% mark for the second time.

The chart below also shows that HPC revenue reached a record $11.99 billion in Q3.

Smartphone grew by 16% sequentially and accounted for 34% of revenue from 33% of revenue in Q2.

Internet of Things revenue grew by 35% sequentially and accounted for 7% of revenue.

Automotive revenue grew by 6% sequentially and accounted for 5% of revenue. Digital Consumer Electronics decreased by 19% and accounted for 1% of revenue; others grew by 8% to account for 2% of revenue.

Revenue by Technology

The Advanced nodes are defined as 7-nanometer and below. It accounted for 69% of wafer revenue in Q3 compared to 67% in Q2.

  • In Q3 2024, 3-nanometer process technology contributed 20% of wafer revenue, while 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 32% and 17%, respectively.
  • In Q2 2024, 3-nanometer process technology contributed 15% of wafer revenue, while 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 35% and 17%, respectively.

Earnings Call

 “AI Demand is Real”

The management clarified in the earnings call to allay fears about the AI opportunity, stating that the demand is real and the return on investment from AI is high.

Question

Gokul Hariharan (Analyst)

“My first question is on the AI investments and the growth that you see. Recently, obviously, there's been a lot of questions about ROI of Gen AI investments, whether this could end up being a bubble. How does TSMC view this trend as you're making your capacity plans given you are enabling pretty much the processing capacity for pretty much everybody?”

Answer

C. C. Wei (Executive)

“Okay Gokul, let me answer your question. Simply, whether this AI demand is real or not, okay? And my judgement is real. We have talked to our customer all the time, including our hyperscaler customers who are building their own chips. And almost every AI innovator is working with TSMC. And so we probably get the deepest and widest look of anyone in this industry.

And why I say it's real, because we have our real experience. We have using the AI and machine learning in our fab and R&D operations. By using AI, we are able to create more value by driving greater productivity, efficiency, speed, qualities.

And think about it, let me use you know 1% productivity gain, that was almost equal to about 1 billion to TSMC. And this is a tangible ROI benefit. And I believe we cannot be the only one company that has benefited from this AI application. So I believe a lot of companies right now are using AI for their own improving productivity, efficiency, everything. So I think it's real.”

PC and Smartphone demand

The management expects healthy growth in the PC and Smartphone demand due to the increasing content due to AI.

Krish Sankar (Analyst)

“Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. The first one I had was, I'm kind of curious on the non-AI demand. How do you look at your wafer demand for PC and mobile into calendar ‘25, and have you seen any meaningful revision upwards or downwards on that?

C. C. Wei (Executive)

Okay, Krish. The unique growth of PC and smartphone is still in a low single digit, but the more important is the content. The content now we put more AI into their chip, and so the silicon area increase faster than the unique growth. So again, I would like to say that for this PC and smartphone business, not only — is gradually increased, and we expect it to be healthy in the next few years because of AI-related applications.”

Advanced Packaging

Advanced Packaging demand is strong and will account for high single-digit of revenue this year.

Krish Sankar (Analyst)

“How do you think about that advanced packaging revenue growth over the next few years, and do you think at some point in the next couple of years, advanced packaging can reach corporate-level growth margins, or would it always be below that?

Wendell Huang (Executive)

Yes, Krish, advanced packaging in the next several years, let's say five years, will be growing faster than the corporate average. This year, it accounts for about high single-digit of our revenue. In terms of margins, yes, it is also improving. However, it's still approaching corporate, but not there yet.

 

Rick Hsu (Analyst)

All right. Thank you so much. A little question as a follow up, the second one. Can you share with us your CoWoS capacity buildup for this year and next year? I know you guys seem to have revised it up several times, so can you share the latest one?

C. C. Wei (Executive)

Okay, Rick. In fact, we are putting a lot of effort to increase the capacity of the CoWoS. Roughly, let me share with you, today's situation is our customers' demand far exceeds our ability to supply. So even we work very hard and increase the capacity by about more than twice, more than two times as this year compared with last year, and probably double again, but still not enough. But anyway, we are working very hard to meet the customers' requirement.”

Conclusion

The company beat across the board and showed its resilience in capturing the demand for advanced chips due to its technological leadership. The top-line growth, along with the bottom-line strength, distinguishes TSMC from other companies that are struggling in the current tough macro environment. The company is the denominator to the biggest AI winners as it supplies to Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Marvell, Intel, and Qualcomm. We look forward to adding this stock to our portfolio.

  

Pro premium members receive deep-dive research on the stocks in the portfolio and quarterly earnings kickoff webinars. In addition, the Advanced Market Signals Members receive regular technical and broad market analysis and weekly webinars from our Portfolio Manager, Knox Ridley. Learn more here.here.

Royston Roche, Equity Analyst at the I/O Fund, contributed to this article.

Posted in Ai Platforms, Semiconductor StocksLeave a Comment on TSMC Q3 2024 Earnings: Strong results led by AI demand

Essentials Positions Update: Nvidia, TSMC, and Bitcoin

Posted on October 17, 2024June 30, 2026 by io-fund

Nvidia (NVDA)

The demand for the newest generation of Nvidia’s Blackwell chip is strong. According to Morgan Stanley, after meeting with management said that the Blackwell GPU is fully booked for the next one year and is progressing on schedule. Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang, had also earlier stated that the demand for Blackwell is “insane.” The supply chain data also points favorably as Foxconn is building a new facility in Mexico for Blackwell orders. Foxconn Chairman said that the capacity would be “very, very enormous”.

The fundamental story is intact and strong for NVDA, which is why the technical setup is somewhat contrarian. As growth investors, sentiment can drive a stock in the opposite direction suggested by the fundamentals over the short to intermediate time frame. This may be what is playing out for Nvidia today.

The technical pattern since the June high best resembles a large degree correction that is still playing out. Note the 3 waves down from the June high. This, so far, has been followed by a 3 wave bounce that has made lower highs. If we are in a large degree correction, then we should see the final drop into the $90 – $70 range in the coming weeks. This scenario is marked in red in the chart below.

The alternative interpretation of the price action is presented in green. If this is playing out,  we are in the middle of a 5th wave push to new highs. The pattern would have to be an ending diagonal, which is typically a 5 wave pattern that consists of large swings in both directions. If this is playing out then any further weakness should hold over $120 – $114, and then breakout to new all-time highs over $141. A break below $114 will confirm the red count, as we set up targets to buy around the August low.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

TSM has a similar setup as NVDA. Strong revenue growth is expected in the coming quarters due to the robust demand for AI and smartphone chips. We have recently discussed the stock here. However, the technical setup suggests that we could see one more leg lower before the larger uptrend resumes.

We have a 3 wave bounce off the August low that is stalling at the highs. The most common interpretation of this 3 wave bounce is a corrective bounce within a larger correction. If this is instead a bullish pattern, it will also be in the form of an ending diagonal pattern. As long as any further weakness holds $179 – $176 and then definitely push towards the $225 region next, then the bullish scenario remains a viable path. If we break below $176, then we are heading back to the August lows.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a breakout to all time highs. Note price breaking above the downtrend line. This pattern is also in the form of an ending diagonal that is targeting $78,000 – $86,000. If we fail to definitely break above the downtrend line, any additional weakness must hold over $58,500. Below this level and the correction that started in March will have one more drop before completing.

Pro premium members receive deep-dive research on the stocks in the portfolio and quarterly earnings kickoff webinars. In addition, the Advanced Market Signals Members receive regular technical and broad market analysis and weekly webinars from our Portfolio Manager, Knox Ridley. We have also recently discussed with the Advanced Market Signals members an AI stock that is up 415% in the last three months. Learn more here.

Recommended Reading:

  • TSMC Q3 2024 Earnings Preview: Strong HPC Growth Likely
  • TSMC: The Common Denominator to AI Stocks
  • Broadcom Fiscal Q3: AI Revenue Outlook Raised, but Valuation is Stretched
Posted in Bitcoin, Semiconductor StocksLeave a Comment on Essentials Positions Update: Nvidia, TSMC, and Bitcoin

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