Category: Market Updates

This week, we have a blog analysis on Alibaba that will be published after earnings. This is my favorite growth stock from China and if/when the price is low enough, it’ll make a solid long term holding. You’ll get this on Thursday.

We will also be publishing a PDF report on the alt-coin that I’ve been preparing over the last two weeks. Of the 1500+ alt-coins, this one is my favorite. This long-form analysis will be published on Friday. Keep in mind, it’s very early days for this alt-coin as the blockchain stack hasn’t been fully developed yet. I truly believe you’ll be pleased in about two years from now.

I’m also writing an article for MarketWatch on Nvidia this week. They tapped me to write a more technical explanation of Nvidia’s market position especially compared to AMD. There is an interesting angle that I dug up after revisiting these semis that I’m saving only for my Premium subscribers. You’ll get this by next Tuesday. I haven’t seen anyone publish on this angle and we’ve seen some documented trading by company insiders that confirms it’s worth a second look.

Last week was a bit of a roller coaster ride. Lyft saw a 11% spike after earnings due to revised guidance of $850M in losses. It eventually settled when the company announced the lock-up period is being shortened to August 19th. The next day Uber confirmed that profitability in the ride-sharing business is still a moonshot. These are my least favorite IPOs and I went on record about that before they went public.

Regarding Roku, its fundamental story remains as strong as it was the day it went public. I like the leadership quite a bit at Roku, as well. One reader asked on the forum if I thought Roku might be an acquisition target. My understanding is this is Anthony Wood’s opus and I think he will take this all the way. For anyone who didn’t read the full report  under the PDF tab on this website (I understand my analysis is quite long!), my best guess is Roku will be a $100 billion company due to global expansion. They have an excellent product and platform for global audiences – better than any OTT company on the market today.

The Trade Desk appears to be settling in price. Even after the earnings beat, the stock appeared to be overbought and is correcting. One reader had asked how to predict when The Trade Desk will face the inevitable competition that all third-party ad products face. It’s not easy as to track but I am going to an advertising event in September that should provide enough information to make a good assessment.

I had published a list of Huawei suppliers for hedging any long positions on August 1st. The 90-day exemption period ends this Monday, August 19th. You can watch that list closely and Apple and Google (Android), as well. Depending on how the story evolves, we may try to pick one or two trades from the list and cover them. I personally made decent money on hedging with Qualcomm and Skyworks in May but have not looked at the pricing since.

Website changes: There’s a new menu to help navigation on the site. You’ll see we nested the various research options. We are building a new forum and will be excited to see this launch in about 2 weeks. Content will be locked for new members dating back about 45 to 60 days starting in September. This means new members will not be able to sign up and access a long catalog of research for a lower price than our continuous and most loyal customers.

Gentle Reminder: Please do not share the PDFs or research via email or on other sites. However, it is okay to paraphrase on other sites and I appreciate the traffic that is sent to me – thank you!  We want our paying members to have time to  place their trades before the stock price changes. I do have a few institutions that follow me and I’ve locked them out of this site by requiring a commercial license. 

Information Technology led the losses today with XLK down -4.17% compared to other sector ETFs down 2-3%. Losses in the NASDAQ of 3.47% outpaced the Dow and S&P 500 at 2.90% and 2.97% respectively. Futures are trading at negative 2% on news that the U.S. declared China is a “currency manipulator.”

The market closed on its 200-day exponential moving average.  After hours, it broke through and will likely gap down to open tomorrow, while futures are currently showing the market trading into the 2790 region. The market is over-sold based on the RSI index and we are approaching key supports. A bounce is likely. The RSI is currently (as of the close today) lower than the RSI low in the May/June correction of this year.  Furthermore, we are approaching a major price cluster (red dotted lines).  This has acted as major support and resistance in the past.

The list of Huawei suppliers provided on Research Services is a decent list to hedge your long positions. It’s unlikely there is a resolution with Huawei for some time. I had written this in the Apple update, as well. The damage done to Huawei suppliers over the current trade war news should exceed what we saw in May. 

Most investors can agree that technology stocks are expensive right now. Our most likely scenario on the MongoDB report was an entry below the $141 support between $95 and $128.  We will keep you posted on this.

Snap is likely to break the final support on our most recent trade at $16.20 and we will be releasing information on entry for this stock again for anyone who exited. I’ve chosen to keep some of my position as there is room for a bull run on Snap due to monetization through Audience Network.

We also have a lengthy 12-page report coming out tomorrow on one of my favorite trends for the next 2-3 years – Connected TV Advertising. We will be guiding premium subscribers on entry for TTD and Roku. The latter is a stronger pure play, but this trend is critical to have in your portfolio, and there is room for both stocks to perform well in the near term of 2-3 years. TTD and Roku report earnings this week.

Uber and Lyft also report earnings this week – my two least favorite IPOs this year. 

Regards, Beth