Qualcomm has not reached its $100 stock price high since the late 90s. Since then, Qualcomm’s price action has been in a series of multi-year ranges, overlapping structures, and powerful uptrends that get sharply interrupted, which makes charting its structure not as straight forward as other stocks.
However, with 30 years of price action, I believe we will see a pullback, followed with a renewed uptrend that should take QCOM to all-time highs for the first time in 20 years.
Elliott Wave Count – Game Plan
The above chart is a snapshot of Qualcomm’s price action trading from 2015 until now. We are currently in a larger degree, primary wave-3, which is highlighted in blue. This wave will take years to play out, and will see a number of corrections along the way.
Remember, each wave is comprised of its own internal waves and is part of a larger wave. So, if we go one degree lower in time, what’s evident is that the primary wave-3 in blue is unfolding in a leading diagonal pattern. We are currently on the 3rd wave of 5 within this leading diagonal, which is highlighted in green. The evidence supports that we should expect a B wave correction soon.
Recently, the price of Qualcomm was met with a very tight cluster of Fibonacci levels, which are derived from multiple timeframes, and instantly reversed. This would put us in the beginning stages of the B-wave retrace, and the likely targets are in the green box. These price levels are comprised of retrace levels that will act as likely support and reversals in the coming correction.
Based on how dislocated semiconductor valuations got from their price, I will be targeting the lower end of the green box, which has another confluence of Fibonacci price clusters.
Internals and Trendlines Support Correction
If we look at the trendlines and internals of Qualcomm, it supports the correction scenario outlined above. First off, the RSI is showing negative divergence – the RSI is making lower highs while the price of QCOM makes higher highs.
This is always a caution sign and signals a drawdown of some extent, but it’s also worth noting that QCOM is also in overbought levels, further supporting the need for a momentum reset.
Next, it’s worth noting the 2 uptrends, which are highlighted with the blue dashed lines. Below each uptrend, the MACD moves along its own trendline. When the MACD is trending along with the price, it’s the sign of a healthy uptrend.
The MACD uptrend can also act as a warning of a large drawdown as well. Notice when the MACD and the price both broke their trends and how much downside that followed. I’m not expecting a drawdown of the magnitude we saw in late 2018; but, I am expecting a healthy correction.
The MACD also rolled over and is heading back towards the trend line. Once these trendlines break, the green target box will be in play, and I will be looking to make a position. For anyone that does not want to time their entries and wants to buy today, a suggested stop would be at $61.
However, I believe we will see a pullback into the region between $80 on the shallow end – and $60 on the more severe end. There is a large number of price clusters around the mid to low $60, and I would be a buyer around this price region.
Semiconductors are going through an important divergence between earnings and stock price. Earnings are flat to negative YoY and QoQ, and yet stock prices are reaching 52-week highs. Although a rebound was forecast for 2020, semiconductors have blown past price targets, leaving little left to be desired in their valuation.
This is not a good time to initiate semiconductor positions purely based on 5G. My preference is to wait until forward earnings/guidance and valuations are more aligned, especially with the trade war risk, capex costs for cloud and 5G expansions that will affect some companies, and the slower recovery than current valuations suggest. For instance, only 12 of 30 semiconductor companies plan to return to growth next year. The majority are expected to report below 10% growth next year and will remain below 2017 sales levels.
Regarding semiconductors for 5G, it will be important to differentiate between consumer use cases and business use cases. The latter is 5G’s true growth opportunity yet is much further out from deploying. To illustrate, Bernstein Research, a renown sell-side analyst firm, believes 5G will be more of a replacement cycle for 4G, so the unit opportunity will not be as significant as previous generations in the consumer category.
Another challenge, which I will cover in a separate analysis, is the end-to-end 5G infrastructure. Gartner predicts that half of communication service providers (CSPs) will fail to monetize back-end infrastructure due to systems not fully meeting 5G use case requirements. A complete infrastructure will be built by the 2025-to-2030 time frame, with 5G radio deploying first, then core slicing and then edge computing.
Regarding the consumer 5G opportunity, Qualcomm predicts 200 million 5G smartphones to be sold next year and 450 million 5G smartphones in 2021. Currently, there are 1.5 billion smartphones shipped annually. The semiconductors below primarily benefit from consumer 5G.
The global 5G infrastructure market is currently valued at $371 million in 2017 and is projected to reach $58 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 95.8% from 2018 to 2025. We will cover infrastructure and business/industrial 5G use cases in a future analysis.
5G Semiconductor Overview
Qualcomm is an interesting opportunity because they are dominating consumer 5G across many geographies and smartphone manufacturers while positioning themselves for business use cases in the future. This is unique compared to opportunities where you are confined to either consumer or business. I cover Qualcomm in length below.
Lam Research is being aggressive with buybacks with one analyst forecasting the company will return about $12 billion to shareholders from 2018-2023. This is about 30% of Lam’s market cap. The company stands to gain from the upgraded memory that will be required from 5G.
This analysis also covers Qorvo, a company that exceeded analyst expectations recently. The company has quite a bit of exposure to Huawei and China, where 5G is ramping up quickly yet carries very high risk. However, 35% of revenue is derived from Apple and may help to offset any trade war issues with 5G in the United States.
Broadcom had a peak year in 2018 with $20.8 billion in revenue and is expected to reach $16.97 in fiscal year
2019. According to current guidance, Broadcom will report $19.52 in fiscal year 2020 and $22.36 in fiscal year 2021. Like Qualcomm, Broadcom should make up to 50% more on chips from 5G than 4G (see Qualcomm for stats).
Qualcomm
Qualcomm is a company that has been working towards the 5G rollout more aggressively than almost any other company on the market today. Qualcomm was a first mover in 5G technologies, such as mobile mmWave, flexible frameworks, scalable OFDM numerology and reciprocity-based massive MIMO.
Basically, Qualcomm is well diversified and singularly focused on 5G. This market lead was demonstrated when Intel exited the 5G smartphone modem business last April and sold its offerings to Apple for $1 billion. This was around the time when Apple acquiesced and struck a deal with Qualcomm, their long-time nemesis. This supports Qualcomm’s assertion they have the best chip on the market as there had been rumors Apple was designing their own chip or would go with MediaTek.
Qualcomm’s market lead has also allowed the number one chip designer to be the provider of 5G modem chips for Xiaomi, LG Electronics and ZTE – plus Samsung although not exclusively. Qualcomm estimates their serviceable market to be $65 billion now and $100 billion in three years (always consider the source).
On that note, Qualcomm can charge more for 5G chips. Analysts estimate 5G smartphones will offer Qualcomm the opportunity to sell 50% more dollar chip content per device versus the prior 4G generation, due to the increasing complexity and higher pricing. Dollar chip content refers to the dollar value of chips that a device holds. (source: Barrons).
As stated in the intro, Bernstein Research, a renown sell-side analyst firm, believes 5G will be more of a replacement cycle for 4G, so the unit opportunity will not be as significant as previous generations. This is because 4G delivered mobile broadband with smartphones being the primary benefactor. The next generation will deliver the wireless edge with 5G New Radio (NR), with the main benefactor being new platforms of interconnected devices and M2M communication.
It helps that Qualcomm is diversified. The number of 5G-capable devices will rise from fewer than 5 million in 2019 to more than 50 million in 2020 due to phones, routers and hot spots.
Qualcomm is positioned for both consumer and business use cases through over-arching infrastructure. The global 5G infrastructure market was valued at $371 million in 2017 and is projected to reach $58 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 95.8% from 2018 to 2025.
Here is the list of the suite of 5G related technologies offered by Qualcomm:
• Private networks
• 5G internet of things (IoT)
• 5G broadcast
• mmWave evolution and also Sub-6Hz spectrum
• XR Devices such as Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality
• Shared, unlicensed spectrum
• 5G NR C-V2X smart transportation (autonomous vehicles)
• Industrial IoT with eURLLC
Holistically speaking, 5G will enable fully-distributed artificial intelligence rather than cloud-centric AI. This goes beyond lower latency and customized/local value. Soon, AI will occur on-device for internal optimizations. This will create:
• On-premise control for factories and manufacturing robotics and machinery
• On-device intelligence assisted by the cloud; critical for autonomous vehicles to operate
• Distributed processing for XR devices.
• Cloud computing, storage and instant access
• Low-latency gaming
• Better AI voice assistant and AI user interfaces
For enterprises, Qualcomm offers 5G New Radio (NR) mmWave private networks. The most likely industry to adopt private networks is the industrial sector. Release 16 for 5G will occur in the H1 of 2020 and private networks will begin to scale in 2021. Private LTE provides a clear and committed upgrade path to 5G.
The term “private networks” refers to networks with radio core, and transmission resources dedicated to the enterprise. Most importantly, the private network is under the control of the enterprise.
Less industrial businesses are unlikely to upgrade to 5G until there is a clear cost-benefit ratio. There are also other options which leverage LTE and WiFi that are less expensive than 5G mmWave technology.
Cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) will be included in future 5G releases for autonomous driving. The enhanced network communication proposes vehicle-to-vehicle, and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication. For instance, not only will the vehicle you’re driving communicate with the vehicles around you to assist with braking and lane changes, but the vehicle will also communicate with street light infrastructure. This is a future technology and not a serious catalyst at this time.
Fundamentals
Qualcomm’s fundamentals reflect many of the risks involved with the stock. The first is the ongoing lawsuits Qualcomm is involved with, and the second is licensing fees, which Huawei is currently withholding. To put it plainly, most of Qualcomm’s partners do not like Qualcomm.
The current semiconductor rally would cause one to believe we have found a bottom for semiconductors. By my estimation, this is not true for Qualcomm. Next quarter, the company is forecasting $4.8 billion in sales and $0.85 EPS, which is relatively flat. Combined with the current stretched valuation for semiconductors, there should be a lower entry.
With that said, expected sales increase for Qualcomm for 2020 is 17%. For 2021, a sales increase of 21% is expected. This is substantially better than the previous three years, which posted negative sales growth.
Risks:
Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X50 5G modem is considered the industry’s most advanced offering. However, Huawei openly challenges this assessment. Last March, the CEO of Huawei stated that the Balong 5000 modem can download at double the speed of the Qualcomm X50.
Whether this is true is irrelevant. Huawei is essentially stating it has no plans of using Qualcomm, and China overall is likely to be less dependent on foreign chipmakers in the 5G era.
As of now, Huawei builds up to 60% of their Kirin mobile processors. Bernstein Research has stated they expect HiSilicon Technology to be Asia’s biggest chip designer by revenue in 2019. HiSilicon Technology has tripled its revenue from $2.4 billion in 2014 to $7.6 billion in 2018. MediaTek supplies Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi. Samsung has developed its own 5G modem chip for high-end devices in markets, such as South Korea.
Therefore, it’s very possible that whatever United States mobile technologies gain from 5G will be offset in what these companies lose from China’s nationalist stance. Also, Qualcomm enjoyed 5G hegemony in fiscal 2019 with 230 5G design wins across 40 OEMs, and this will be challenged in 2020 and beyond.
Qorvo
Qorvo is a provider of radio frequency chips for mobile products (MP), and infrastructure and defense products (IDP). The mobile product is a radio frequency solution that performs various functions in the cellular radio front end section of smartphones and other cellular devices. The IDP segment supports global applications, including high-speed network connectivity to the cloud, data center communications, and internet connectivity.
Qorvo has beat quarterly estimates for the past four quarters. The company recently experienced a surge in stock price due to reporting Non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 versus $1.30 and also beat the revenue consensus by 7%. On a GAAP basis, Qorvo reported revenue of $807 million with gross margins of 40% and diluted EPS of $0.70. The company also announced $1 billion in buybacks.
Notably, despite beating earnings, the company has had relatively flat revenue growth of 4% in 2019 following negative growth in 2018, and continues to forecast for minimal growth of 2.3% growth in 2020. Compare this to 2015-2016, when Qorvo saw about 50% revenue growth YoY.
Earnings are expected to grow at 56.9% annual growth through 2022, which exceeds the industry average of 19.6% and the market’s 14%.
Qorvo is an Apple supplier with 35% of revenue derived from the iPhone. The Huawei ban is an important consideration for Qorvo. There continues to be extensions on the entity list that bans US suppliers from selling components to Huawei. The extensions on the ban have allowed chip companies to recover from May lows.
As of now, another reprieve will be needed when the extension expires in December. According to author KwanChen Ma on Seeking Alpha, a full Huawei ban knocks off 13% of Qorvo’s revenue.
Notably, according to Mayfield Recorder, institutions have taken gains on Qorvo recently with outflow exceeding inflow for the first time since Q2 2017.
Lam Research
Lam Research provides micro-processors, memory devices, various processing solutions and fabrication equipment for semiconductor companies. Front-end wafer processing solutions from Lam Research help to create chips and applications for nearly every edge device on the market. Wafer processing create transistors, capacitors and wiring for semiconductors.
Lam Research has a potential growth opportunity due to the increase in demand for memory from artificial intelligence, IoT devices, and 5G mobile communication. Down the line, memory will also be needed for autonomous vehicles. Memory manufacturers need wafer fabrication equipment.
Despite negative year-over-year growth and only 5% growth forecast for 2020, Lam Research has rallied. The stock is trading 116% higher from December lows. One catalyst is Lam’s buyback program. The company is returning 50% of its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks with plans of returning a total of $12 billion to shareholders by 2023. This will lead to a 11.5% decline in shares.
One argument for Lam Research is that the company is protected from supply and demand in memory as memory manufacturers will continue to buy from Lam even during a low point in the cycle. This was proven during 2015 when Lam did not feel the effects of the memory trough. Secondly, Lam spans across Micron, Samsung and Intel, and therefore, is more diversified.
As recent as last July, Lam Research’s profits were nearly 50% less than the year-ago quarter at $541.8 million compared to $1.02 billion a year ago. Sales were $2.36 billion compared to $3.13 billion in the year-ago quarter. In current quarter, Lam reported -8% year-over-year sales. As stated, the company is forecasting only 5% growth next year.
Although Lam is situated nicely for memory growth, the numbers are not reflective of the opportunity. It’s likely we see a lower entry for this stock.
Broadcom
Broadcom is one of the rare semiconductor companies that is expected to post increasing revenue and EPS this year. Next year, the company is expected to grow 4-5% across the top line and bottom line. Historically, Broadcom has been on a nice trajectory compared to many semiconductor peers, with 50%+ increases in annual revenue and some years posting triple digits (2015-2016). This growth has clearly slowed down yet earnings are forecast to grow from $16.97 in fiscal year 2019 to $19.52 in fiscal year 2020 and $22.36 in fiscal year 2021.
The only drawback to Broadcom is the 5G push will be consumer oriented only. The company sells a variety of chips that enable wireless capabilities in smartphones, such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and cellular. Apple makes up over 60% of Broadcom’s overall wireless revenue. Similar to Qualcomm, Broadcom will make more from 5G chips than from previous generations.
Last week at MWC in Barcelona, the session panels focused on the hottest topics in mobile, such as 5G, artificial intelligence and blockchain. The more controversial panels discussed the bias found in data, and how that data goes onto inform algorithms, which results in unethical conclusions. Speakers and panelists pointed out the racial bias in prison sentencing, gender bias in mortgage loans, financial institutions, age-related bias that occurs during job recruitment, and pre-existing conditions in health care coverage.
Danny Guillory, the head of global diversity and inclusion at AutoDesk told Fortune Magazine that by running a search for a professional social network for social engineers, the results were primarily Caucasian men. Guillory pointed out that when you engage or ask for more results, the AI delivers candidates with similar attributes – more Caucasian men. Another example of AI bias is the notorious Microsoft’s Tay AI, when released on Twitter back in March of 2016, the AI quickly became misogynist and racist on social media within a staggering 24 hours.
AI may seem like an auxiliary technology to how we live our daily lives today, however, it will soon be the primary driver across the tech industry. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates the world economy will reach an additional 15.7 trillion in value by 2030 due to artificial intelligence. To put this into perspective, the top 5 technology companies today have a combined value of about $4 trillion, which includes Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Facebook. The annual global technology spend is similar – about $3 trillion. Over the next decade, AI will drive a market 5x the size of tech’s current global spend.
Although this growth is exciting on many levels, the panelists at MWC 2019 voiced concerns about the handling of inherent biases that comes from data, as clearly discrimination by age, race, gender, education or other factors within audience segmentation is counterproductive to the advancement of society that AI promises.
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AI algorithms are responsible for making consequential decisions and are trained to find lookalikes or other markers to learn patterns. Some argue that the bias occurs when the computer system reflects the humans who designed it. Proven downsides to artificial intelligence have surfaced in recent years, for instance with fake news allegedly influenced the 2016 Presidential election. These accusations are proof that we have run out of time in addressing these concerns, especially as we near the precipice of a much larger, multi-trillion-dollar AI market.
Provided there is more diversity within the field of artificial intelligence, many of the panelists asked who should regulate the infractions of algorithmic bias – governments or markets? Many felt there should be an international community to establish guidelines for AI. But even then, will the lower classes be invited or what level of inclusivity will an international community realistically provide for, as the world’s most vulnerable and marginalized people are unlikely to be represented. In this way, AI could further the gap between lower class and upper class along socioeconomic lines, if it hasn’t done so already as AI is currently in use by the largest financial funds in capital markets.
The unanimous solution among the panelists and speakers was to broaden the conversation and not limit artificial intelligence jobs only to technical experts. “Requiring someone to know Python in order to work with AI is not democratizing AI,” one panelist pointed out. Along these lines, a more human centric approach is necessary.
The GSMA Mobile World Congress (MWC) is the world’s largest exhibition for the mobile industry and combines influential companies from Asia, Europe and North America in the central location of Barcelona. The grandiose 20,000 square foot booths come with the largest names in mobile, like Samsung, Ericsson, Huawei, Google, Docomo, Telefonica, Orange, Verizon, AT&T, Qualcomm, Xiaomi, and other big names with big marketing budgets.
MCW 2019 Event
5G Loud and Clear
5G, 5G, and more 5G is basically the best way to sum up the news from the event. Every operator, network and manufacturer had some angle on the 5G rollout. However, hold your investment pennies for now on 5G stocks. The capex bill that comes with it may be one of the biggest the tech industry has ever faced. The GSMA trade group, a trade body that counts over 800 telecom and mobile corporate companies as members, stated that carriers will be spending $160 billion on an annual basis to roll out 5G networks. In addition to network costs, trillions will be required to install the infrastructure needed for the content, applications and emerging tech that will rely on the 5G networks (i.e. smart cities, autonomous vehicles, virtual reality, etc). Think 5G makes for a good long trade? Again, don’t count on it for now as the GSMA also stated only 15 percent of all mobile connections will be on 5G by 2025. (As I mentioned, the GSMA is a fairly reliable source as it counts 800 of the world’s top mobile companies as members).
Qualcomm 5G
According to VentureBeat, the financing firm Greensill puts the total cost for 5G at $2.7 trillion through the end of 2020. The issue is that it’ll take a few years to see any returns, which will put networks in the red until applications catch up. This, of course, is the fine print to 5G that the lights, camera and action of the booths at MWC didn’t portray (view my Instagram posts here). In fact, there was a panel where Mike Fries, the CEO of Liberty Global, pointed out that carriers in Europe have not recouped costs on 4G yet. “You’ve had 10 straight years of declining mobile revenues in Europe with the biggest issue being price,’ he said.
Will Foldable Phones Drive Sales?
Foldable phones were the most talked about product at the event. Huawei’s Mate X and Samsung’s Galaxy Fold were both on display behind glass cases. The use-cases for the foldable phone include more productivity while on-the-go and new applications for cameras, such as seeing the photo before you take it due to the second screen. The price tag is high – over $2,000 is the anticipated number when the phone is released later this year. Following MWC, on February 28th, Apple Insider reported that Apple has filed a patent application for “Electronic Devices with Flexible Displays” with sensor and micro-heater technology to keep a foldable screens from becoming too brittle in cold temperatures. No doubt, mobile handsets have stagnated recently with iPhone revenue dropping in Apple’s earnings reports. Will foldable phones deliver enough ingenuity to revive sales? Time will tell, but it does seem like early adopters are taking a risk on the durability of the manufacturing as Samsung’s foldable phone is already reporting issues after being folded 10,000 times. According to Wired and ArsTechnica, the foldable phones from Samsung and Huawei are made of plastic polymers, which can scratch easily and cause the previously mentioned wear from folding the device. In the meantime, glass-maker Corning is “working on an ultrathin, bendable glass that’s 0.1 millimeters thick and can bend to a 5-millimeter radius” that may hit the market in about two years. (Wired’s article is less than obscure and is entitled “Want a Foldable Phone? Hold Out for Real Glass).
SoftBank Becomes Bitcoin Competitor
Blockchain was a more muted theme at MWC, one that was mainly talked about in sessions for Silver, Gold and Platinum pass holders. In one session, SoftBank had an interesting angle on how to transfer payments electronically in order to avoid the drawbacks of bitcoin. Their proposal is cross-carrier identification systems (CCIS) and payment systems (CCPS) technology that runs through telecom carriers. CCIS focuses on enabling identification and authentication, which reduces the need to have different usernames and passwords by using Zero Knowledge Proof cryptography and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) to issue, store and authorize for identification purposes without requiring detailed information. The goal is to prevent identify thefts while minimizing the current requirements needed to verify passwords by creating encrypted digital identities.
Presentation on MWC 2019
The second part to SoftBank’s partnership with TBCASoft is a blockchain-based platform for global or cross-border payments. For instance, a user can make purchases in Japan with U.S. dollars through mobile-based Rich Communications Services (RCS). The official press release was in September of 2018. Here is some more information on how it works:
“The PoC enables users to make a variety of in-store, mobile and digital purchases directly from their device. For example, a mobile customer based in Japan can travel to the U.S. and make a purchase supported by SoftBank and Synchronoss via RCS. In addition, the RCS global messaging standard can be used to send a payment, while the CCPS blockchain API enables the recipient to use an RCS-based messaging app or legacy messaging service to receive person-to-person (P2P) money transfers through the RCS wallet app.”
