Marvell’s management team did an excellent job of acquiring Inphi and executing. Typically, we avoid M&A for a year to allow the financials to merge, yet in this case, leaning into the acquisition was a good choice.
The Marvell management team’s execution skills are needed once again because Marvell has an opportunity to greatly increase its revenue and profits if management can execute in a new market one more time. The opportunity is a new architecture called CXL that disaggregates memory from the CPU. CXL is attracting a lot of attention at industry events, such as Hot Chips 2022, because it’s focused on optimizing one of the most expensive parts of the data center – which is memory.
Before we go into the 2023-2024 Marvell product road map, and why it’s key to the company’s future, I want to discuss the fiscal Q2 2023 earnings.
Fiscal Q2 2023 Earnings Overview
The market is concerned over Marvell’s data center guidance of 20% growth next quarter. This is a slowdown from the most recent quarter at 48% YoY growth and earlier quarters at >100% growth.
At an estimated $600 million, it will also mean a sequential decline both from Q2 and Q1, which were at $643M and $640M, respectively. Marvell stated it’s the on-premise business weighing on their cloud data center business and supply issues (more below).
Notably, Q2 of last year was an important moment for the company when 56% sequential data center growth grew from $277 million to $434 million in the span of three months following the close of the Inphi acquisition in April 2021. From there, the company has sustained Inphi’s already high growth levels for over a year.
The company is now at an annualized run rate of $6 billion, which the CEO reminded analysts, was the target for October of 2023. The company met the target originally provided at the October 2021 Investor Day one year earlier than expected. Notably, this was six months after Inphi was closed so M&A not a factor here.
Marvell’s Segment Overview:
- The data center represents 42% of revenue at $643 million and grew 48% year-over-year.
- The carrier infrastructure segment, which is wired and wireless and reflects 5G growth, reported 45% YoY to $285 million.
- Enterprise networking grew handily at 53% YoY to $340 million and is expected to grow at 70% next quarter. We break this segment down below.
- Consumer was down (1%) to $164 million and is expected to be down (10%) next quarter. Marvell has exposure to the storage market and this can weigh on the more robust segments.
- Automotive was up 46% YoY to $84 million and is expected to be up 40% YoY next quarter. We also break down this segment below.
Marvell Financial Overview
Marvell was reporting negative top line revenue when we first covered it in 2019 and Marvell took another hit on revenue during Covid before accelerating to the 50%-74% revenue growth range.
The current quarter’s top line revenue in Q2 was at 41% which is a deceleration from Q1 with 74% revenue growth. The company guided for 29% year-over-year growth, which was a slight miss as analysts were expecting 30.3% growth in the fiscal Q3 quarter. The company reported EPS in line with adjusted EPS of $0.57. The guidance on EPS was a slight miss, however, at $0.59 reported versus $0.61 adjusted EPS estimated.
Semiconductors make a tougher investment as analysts can’t model too far into the future beyond what management teams provide. That is why there were many questions looking for help with how to factor in the “acceleration” in the data center the Marvell team is expecting in Q4 and what this will mean for CY2023.
An analyst asked if they can assume 10% QoQ in the data center for $1.7 billion overall revenue and the CEO said it sounded “a little on the high side.” This has led to analysts modeling $1.65 billion in revenue in Q4, for 22.5% growth. Therefore, despite a single-digit acceleration in the data center segment, there will still be a top line deceleration, if today’s forecast does not change.
The company’s margins and cash flow are a bright spot, and I believe this is being overlooked. If we get an acceleration in the data center into next year, then Marvell is fundamentally a much stronger company than it was during the previous data center streak.
On a GAAP basis, the gross margin was at 51% in the most recent quarter, up from 35% in the year ago quarter and up from 46% in FY2022. The company is guiding for the same GM of 51% next quarter.
The GAAP operating margin has improved quite a bit YoY to 8.3% in the current quarter compared to (25%) in the year ago quarter. This is also an improvement from Q1 with GAAP OM of 4.80%. The adjusted operating margin “hit a record” at 36.5% and is guided for 37% next quarter. Stock based compensation was at $139 million in the most recent quarter.
Cash flow is also improving with operating cash flow at $332 million, or 22% of revenue. This compares to $194 million last quarter and $819 million in FY2022. However, the company carries debt of $4.6 billion and has $617 million of cash on the balance sheet. This is a 1.8X net debt to EBITDA ratio.
Therefore, there has been substantial improvement yet Marvell does have a weaker debt profile than a company like AMD or Nvidia.
Source: YCharts
Note on Supply:
Marvell is aligned with AMD in that they believe supply chain issues will ease in Q4 and into 2023. Here is what Marvell said in the opening remarks:
“Therefore, for our overall data center end market, we project revenue in the third quarter to decline sequentially in the mid-single digits on a percentage basis. However, we expect our data center revenue in the fourth quarter to increase on a sequential basis, anticipating an improvement in supply and new product ramps in cloud.”
Here is what AMD said:
“The visibility with our customers, especially our large cloud customers’ second half of this year into next year is very good. And we’re planning really for the next four to six quarters, and that gives us good visibility” and later provided many references toward supply coming online in Q4, such as: “But overall, the 7% increase [in gross margin], I think, is very well supported given all of the new product ramps that we have going on in addition to some additional supply that’s coming in as we get into the fourth quarter.”
It never hurts to have two management teams agree on the larger broad-based issue. However, since those reports, we’ve seen analysts cast doubts on the effects of macro for the rest of the year: “[Mizuho analyst Rakesh] checks show hyperscale orders are seeing "pushbacks" but no cancels, with Q3 trending flat quarter-over-quarter and Q4 "potentially soft." Rakesh lowered estimates for AMD "with macro headwinds clouding the near-term outlook."
Marvell’s Products:
In six brief years, Marvell has pivoted away from consumer (storage) products as the revenue mix was previously 62% consumer/38% infrastructure to being 11% consumer/89% infrastructure today.
This was driven partly by hyperscalers building data center infrastructure and AI/ML driving the need for faster data speed. Inphi also contributed to this.
Data Center Segment
PAM Solutions:
Marvell offers 200-gig and 400-gig PAM-based electro-optics — and the company recently added 800-gig solutions. This market sees tailwinds from the need for more bandwidth as the electro-optics connect short distances and long distances to increase data rates. PAM4 has replaced NRZ data transmission with the benefit of doubling the bit rate.
Hyperscalers are going through an upgrade cycle that requires high bandwidth and port density. PAM4 connects networking ASICs and machines, like servers and AI machines. Digital-based PAM4 uses analog-to-digital converters to clean up the signal in the digital domain before converting it back to analog to transmit.
Artificial intelligence and machine learning drives demand for the 800-gig PAM to increase the speed of input-output and to process the data flows. This doubles the throughput (bandwidth) due to an 8x100Gpbs optical transceiver for inside and between AI clusters.
In the fiscal Q1 results ending in April, management had stated: “our first quarter results benefited from a ramp in volume shipments of our 800-gig PAM solutions at two large customers.” The company has also stated that their products will see increase demand with the release of more powerful CPUs.
COLORZ 400:
COLORZ allows regional data centers to be linked together in the same metro region to function as one single mega data center. COLORZ silicon photonics technology allows data centers in the same metropolitan region to function like a mega data center through a “network fabric.” This facilitates faster edge computing within an 80/120 km distance for 30-megawatt data centers as they will be linked together and function like a 120-megawatt data center.
Per the most recent press release:
“As artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and high-performance computing (HPC) applications continue to drive greater bandwidth requirements, cloud-optimized 400G solutions are needed to support high-speed data center interconnections. These requirements can only be met through high bandwidth connectivity offered in a small, cost-effective form factor. The Marvell COLORZ II 400ZR enables cloud data centers the ability to increase the speed of data movement while keeping the power and cost low.”
Another press release stated the company shipped 100,000 units.
Here is what was said on the call about how/why the growth in the data center can continue:
Harlan Sur
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. On the cloud optical connectivity business, this is both inside and between data centers, the upgrade cycles have been this really great multi-year tailwind for the team.
And if I look into next year, I believe that there's still at least one of the top four US hyperscale titans that's going to start the 400-gig PAM4 transition. You still have China CSPs that need to fire. You've got multiple customers on DR that's going to fire as well. Historically, like these transitions, I don't think have been impacted by a slowing macro demand environment. They're viewed as, I think, very strategic.
But is that how your cloud customers are thinking about these upgrades and your views on continued upgrade momentum in this segment for next year? And just relatedly, is the Innovium team on track to drive $150 million in revenues this year?
Matt Murphy
Hey. Thanks, Harlan. Yes, I think the first part of it, you got pretty well in terms of the transition on 200 and 400 gig PAM4 inside the data center. And then, the new ramps we're seeing in 400 gig ZR for DCI between data centers.
What I'd add on top of that is — which has been extremely strong and also, in some ways, a little bit of a constraint we've seen in terms of being able to keep up is, the demand on 800 gig, which is happening right now really around, obviously, very advanced AI workloads.
That is an area where, if we could obviously produce more material, we would be shipping it in Q3. So that's also a positive trend. So you've got sort of the transition going on all the way up to 800 gig, and that continues to look pretty good.
NOTE: Innovium is an acquisition that closed in 2021 and at time of acquisition was expected to add $150 million in revenue for CY2022/FY2023.
Compute Xpress Link (CXP): 2024-2025 Data Center Catalyst
Marvell is launching a new product line called CXL, which will improve how data centers add memory. Right now, a server must be opened to add DRAM and the DIMM slots are limited in number and don’t pass service history or bit-error history, which is needed by hyperscalers.
Memory pooling allows memory to scale independently from processors by taking memory for a task and then releasing the memory. The new fabric removes the need for local DRAM, which adds a bit of latency from 100ns to 140-160ns, however, there’s a possibility of adding a CXL accelerator to be more “cache coherent.”
The CXL switch will be used to accelerate protocol-level processing across ethernet, DPUs, SmartNICs and solid-state drive controllers (SSD).
What Marvell is proposing with CXL is a new server architecture to “dynamically assign memory resources between servers.” The result is boosted memory bandwidth and also the ability to enable memory pooling. The company sees a future where a new architecture will separate compute, memory and I/O racks with the interconnect being CXL. Partially-disaggregated racks are expected to deploy in 2024-2025.
Marvell is at the forefront of the shift toward “disaggregate memory from the CPU” because it currently supplies the optics that this new fabric will disrupt. Inphi is the leader in silicon optics, PAM-4, and the encoding of PAM-4 for PCIe 6.0.
2024 seems like a long ways off yet the market will be paying attention to this In Q2/Q3 2023.
Here’s an excerpt from the call:
“As you recall from our discussion last quarter, we see CXL as the next big evolution in cloud data centers that will enable us to increase our reach into the memory ecosystem and presents a multibillion-dollar SAM expansion opportunity for Marvell.
This includes a host of new products such as CXL expanders, cooling devices, switches and accelerators and the potential to embed CXL IP and a broad range of our data center products. Events and presentations at FMS strongly validated our excitement around CXL. This is the hottest topic at FMS with standing room-only presentations by many leading industry participants.
The Marvell booth, we demonstrated the industry's first CXL memory pooling solution, addressing the challenges related to memory scaling and cloud data centers. While the industry is still in the early stages of CXL adoption, we are working on closing significant opportunities right in front of us at key customers and envision a strong design win pipeline.”
Why Marvell for CXL?
There are a handful of companies going after the CXL opportunity. Marvell could be front runner as the company already works closely with memory OEMs by supplying HDD controllers, SSD controller and preamplifiers. The company also has an aggressive PCIe roadmap with the company shipping Gen 5 sockets whereas most SSD device are shipping Gen 4 solutions. Marvell is already investing in Gen 6, which in turn, attracts more Tier 1 memory OEMs.
Marvell acquired Tanzanite, a developer of advanced CXL technologies. The company plans to expand to CXL expanders, cooling devices, switches and accelerators.
The company has stated this will drive “a multibillion-dollar PAM expansion opportunity driven by CXL overtime.” (Note: Marvell is referring to PAM, their premiere product)
We will focus on this more next year. You can listen to a recent tech talk here on CXL. The presentation is located here. This is an article about Microsoft’s interest in CXL with a statement that “50% of their server costs are taken up by DRAM.”
Carrier Infrastructure:
The OCTEON processors and platform is an Arm-based compute architecture for embedded applications, such as wireless networking equipment including 5G, including switches, routers, firewalls and monitoring solutions.
The OCTEON DPU is used with SmartNICs and security accelerators with a 5nm design that delivers to the infrastructure industry the same processing node as consumer smart phones and high performance computing and shipped in 2021. The most recent release from last year was the OCTEON 10 DPU and Prestera carrier switches which combined consumes 50% less power than competitors (according to Marvell).
Marvell’s processors help 5G networks meet latency and bandwidth demand while also allowing the networks to upgrade as cellular standards evolve. Marvell also offers customized solutions, which is ideal for Tier 1 customers who can combine their IP with Marvell’s Arm v8 processors and accelerators.
Recently, Dell and Marvell partnered to develop a server-class accelerator card for 5G base stations based on Marvell’s arm-based OCTEON Fusion processor. The hardware accelerators deliver more processing power including processing solutions for smart radio heads to support massive MIMO antenna rays.
We wrote about MIMO a few years back in a reference guide: “Massive Multiple Input and Multiple Output (MIMO) sends the data through multiple data streams called layers, which increases parallelism and throughput. MIMO helps avoid lost signals with multipathing, which allows the base station to send multiple copies of the same signal for increased redundancy.
Note: The antenna array is one fundamental change to 5G infrastructure. The initial 5G rollout will use existing cell towers, however, newer, dedicated 5G network infrastructures will require many more antennas than used in previous generations. Read more.”
The distributed unit (DU) shares the load with the radio unit by running L1 functions on the RAN protocol. Marvell has been a proponent of OpenRAN with the O-RAN platform, which is an open protocol and open platform that allows Marvell’s hardware to be used with various software vendors. Facebook (Meta) is a partner with Facebook Connectivity.
DPU processors, or digital processing units, are gaining traction for 5G transport, 5G RAN intelligent controllers, edge computing and cloud data center workloads. These hardware accelerators enable high speed connectivity and can improve packet processing rates by 5X. DPUs are ideal for power sensitive edge applications. Marvell’s strength in DPUs is one reason it may be able to stave off competition, which in the narrow field of 5G base stations includes Qualcomm/HPE and Analog Devices. Beyond 5G, Marvell has other competitors for DPUs such as AMD/Pensando and Nvidia.
Regarding 5G, over 7 million of the Octeon processors have been used in 3G, 4G and 5G base stations with Tier 1 customers. In the past, we reported that Samsung and Nokia use Marvell, and supplying these particular companies was a tailwind when Huawei was blacklisted. More recently, Marvell has stated they have design wins with four of the top five global OEMs and next-tier OEMs building base station equipment. These design wins are based on the 5nm platform.
Marvell uses TSMC for the 5nm OCTEON DPUs and this is an advantage because Marvell has the 5nm now and is able to move quickly on a 3nm release.
Notably, 5G has been a long time coming but I do believe it will reward investors over the next few years. Technavio has a CAGR of 67% for 5G equipment through 2025. The growth trend of 5G/edge computing is not one that we plan to complacent on as it will provide the next leg up for substantial capex spending similar to data center capex spending.
Enterprise Networking:
Marvell sells ethernet switches and ethernet PHYs to IT managers and networking equipment manufacturers. The company uses DSP technology for CAT5e ethernet cables to supply data rates up to 5Gbps with support for CAT6 and CAT6a.
Management discussed on the call that the main driver for this market right now is wireless, specifically WiFi 6 as the wireless rate line is now faster than the wired rate. The call also pointed toward content per port going up in the transition to multi-gig. According to the CEO, “it's not like 10%, 20%, 30%. It's sort of multiples on a per port basis of where it was before.”
Increased enterprise share and content gains from wired and wireless enterprise networking drove 53% YoY revenue growth and 19% QoQ revenue growth.
Automotive:
Similar to the networking that Marvell supplies enterprises and the data center, Marvell also supplies auto manufacturers with ethernet PHY transceivers, camera bridges and switches for in-vehicle networks. This is used for things like collision detection, lane warnings, and autonomous driving.
Marvell believes Ethernet will be the backbone for connected and autonomous vehicles to connect the electronic control unit (ECUs), cameras, sensors, and central compute devices. The Ethernet device is called Brightlane.
ON Semi has partnered with Marvell on use cases such as pairing a standardized protocol, such Ethernet PHY, with ON’s portfolio of ultra-dynamic range image sensors.
Automotive was up 46% to $84 million, yet was down 6% sequentially. Management cited supply issues rather than demand. Marvell counts eight of the largest 10 OEMs worldwide and 36 OEMs total. The company believes revenue growth will be 40% next quarter.
Note on Consumer Market:
Marvell sells hard disc drives (HDD) and solid state disc (SSD) controllers. This is a weaker segment, declining 1% YoY and 8% sequentially to $164 million. For next quarter, Marvell expects revenue to be down 10% YoY and flat sequentially.
Conclusion:
There is a new, powerful trend on the way that is on par with the cloud computing trend. This trend of edge computing will rely on distributed computing rather than centralized processing. Both will exist and rely upon each other but edge computing will have a stronger growth trend when it breaks ground (by virtue of being new/rapidly expanding). Much of this will be in sync with the 5G buildout.
Marvell has the potential to be a strong stock during this buildout as the company provides the base station hardware, supports MIMO antenna rays, beamforming, and accelerates 5G transport and controllers which results in high-speed connectivity.
The company also provides electro-optics and silicon photonics for increased data rates and a network fabric for edge computing. The edge is defined as many things, but what all definitions can agree on, is that the edge needs superior connectivity/networking. Electro-optics, silicon photonics, DPUs, SmartNICs and ethernet in the data center are a warmup for Marvell supplying edge servers and edge devices. As this occurs, the demand for Marvell’s product suite will increase.
In addition to this, Marvell is thinking outside the box by focusing on restructuring memory while most companies are focused on more powerful chips. CXL drives down costs on DRAM and is likely to rapidly adopted by hyperscalers once it becomes available. There’s no guarantee that Marvell will be the one to win the contracts but it’s certainly a front runner.