I’m honored to share that the I/O Fund has delivered 326% cumulative returns since inception in May 2020, representing a 4.26X multiple. On an annualized basis, returns have averaged 29.2%, outpacing both broad market indexes plus many of Wall Street’s highest-ranking hedge funds.
You can find our official 2025 Returns Press Release here. 2025 Returns Press Release here.
5-Year Relative Performance vs. Peers
The I/O Fund’s annualized returns compare favorably with some of Wall Street’s most established investment teams.
Although we launched mid-year in 2020 on May 9th, the comparison below gives a general idea of what a strong annualized return would be over the past 5 years.
To provide additional context, we present both our 2020–2025 and 2020–2025 annualized returns in the chart below, each of which ranks competitively within this peer set.
Source: LevelFieldsLevelFields
Based on cumulative returns, the I/O Fund would have hypothetically ranked #3 among technology-focused ETFs and mutual funds. While the portfolio was not exclusively invested in semiconductors, increased allocations in a few semiconductor leaders contributed meaningfully to performance.
Ultimately, a stock-picking approach was able to perform comparatively to a segment of the technology market that was rather difficult to outperform, particularly relative to tech portfolios overweight the Magnificent 7, software, and other less complex subsectors.
Source: YCharts and Yahoo FinanceYCharts and Yahoo Finance
2025 Performance Review
In 2025, the I/O Fund achieved a 37% portfolio return. These returns and the cumulative listed above combine equities and cryptocurrency with Bitcoin down (5%) and altcoins down as much as (40%).
Source: Reuters and BloombergReuters and Bloomberg
When excluding cryptocurrency, the team’s equity strategy delivered a staggering 56% return, a result that ranks the I/O Fund team among the highest-performing investment teams in the United States on both an annual and cumulative basis.
To compare with ETFs last year, we show the I/O Fund’s equities-only performance, as ETFs generally reflect more concentrated thematic exposure. The returns shown below reflect the performance of our AI equity strategy in 2025 and provide a more appropriate comparison to similar thematic approaches
Source: YCharts and MorningstarYCharts and Morningstar
Relative Outperformance vs. Indices
Since inception, our portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 by 192% and has outperformed the Nasdaq-100 by 152%. The last several years have demanded precision as markets rotated sharply from cloud computing toward artificial intelligence, valuations reset, and major indices delivered consecutive strong years—conditions that have made sustained outperformance exceptionally difficult for active managers.
Additionally, when we look at how the I/O Fund compares to popular institutional all-tech funds, we have a notable lead of 294% since our inception in May 2020.
An investment of $10,000 with the I/O Fund's picks at inception versus other all-tech portfolios would see a portfolio value of $42,552 with IOF versus $13,192 with institutional tech-focused portfolios. The difference in value is 223%.
2025 Winning Positions Overview:
Where the I/O Fund further differentiates itself is in the number of individual positions that outperform the broader indexes:
- 2023: Five positions returned over 100%, with seven positions outperforming the Nasdaq
- 2024: Ten positions outperformed the Nasdaq-100, with six exceeding 100% returns
- In 2025, we had 11 positions outperform the Nasdaq-100, while two exceeded 100%. One position returned over 300%.
Some of these positions were held for the entire year, while others were tactically closed, allowing us to lock in realized gains that exceeded the Nasdaq-100's performance.
Additionally, our biggest winners were the result of our risk management overlays providing us with ample cash to strategically buy stocks into the Q1 selloff. Being tactical to start the year and then deploying our cash into February – April allowed us to realize gains that in some cases exceeded the stock’s annual performance.
Below, we provide additional details on our entries, exits, adds, and trims — all of which were communicated through real-time trade alerts to our Premium Members.
Positions that we held for the entirety of 2025 that exceeded the NASDAQ-100:
- Nvidia (NVDA) +37%
- Advanced Micro Devices +75%
The above does not include all trims and buys for the entirety of 2025.
Positions that we opened in early 2025 and held for the year:
- Applovin (APP) +70% – our lowest entry ending the year +141%
- Bloom Energy (BE) +305% – our lowest entry ending the year +422%
- Astera Labs (ALAB) +140% – our lowest entry ending the year up +226%
Positions that we tactically opened and/or closed in 2025 for a realized gain that surpassed the NASDAQ-100's 2025 return:
- Coherent (COHR) +33%
- Core Scientific (CORZ) +93%
- Coinbase (COIN) +40%
- Meta (META) + 51%
- Innodata (INOD) +79% with one trade at +94%
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSM) + 33%
Returns are calculated using either the average cost basis of the initial buys that built the core position or the year’s opening price, and the average sell price across the closing trades or the closing price for the year.
Overview of Notable Winners in 2025
Nvidia (NVDA)
Leading up to the release of the Hopper GPUs, we were net buyers of Nvidia in 2021 through early 2023. On average, it was held as a 15% position throughout 2022 – 2023. As we moved into 2024, Nvidia was allowed to exceed this allocation to become our first ever 20% position.
However, in mid-2024, we shifted our focus by looking more deeply at suppliers for Nvidia. Although the stock remained a core holding; we used our oversized allocation to raise cash at periods of perceived risk. Most notably, we talked about Nvidia hitting the $90 – $80 region for months before we finally got there in April of 2025.
In February of 2025, we cut half of our position with an average cost basis of $130.88. We were then able to grab shares of Nvidia roughly 30% lower at $94.48 on April 4th and again at $87.99 on April 7th. The low for the year was $86.60.
Bloom Energy (BE)
We first covered surging power demand from AI data centers in June 2024, with Bloom Energy quickly rising to the top of our list for its ability to solve the critical time-to-power constraint. Like ALAB below, it was a stock we wanted to own but preferred to hold off considering the broad market risk we warned our readers about in early 2025.
We made three initial buys in BE that defined our core position. Two of them happened on the April 4th low at $17.04 and $16.64. These two buys made Bloom a 5% position in our portfolio. We then added another 3% to BE on July 24th at $32.93, making BE an 8% position before our thesis was proven correct.
We took tactical gains in BE along the way, considering that it became one of our largest holdings due to relative performances. We also closed BE for 3 trading days due to technical support breaking, but quickly bought it back once it was proven to be a false breakdown.
We remain steadfast in Bloom Energy’s positioning within the AI energy demand and will continue to tactically manage this winner as we perceive risks unfolding. As of today, it is one of the best calls in I/O Fund history, alongside Nvidia.
Astera Labs (ALAB)
Astera Labs is a stock that has responded well to technical analysis, as illustrated in the chart below. It went from not being in our portfolio as we moved into 2025, to becoming an 11% position around the April lows. This gave us an average cost basis of $69.42.
We then sold 1/3 of this position in September, with an average cost basis of $205.27, locking in 295% returns, while also freeing up some cash. This was just before ALAB sold off 50% in just over 2 months.
With what we know today in terms of PCIe persisting across future GPU generations and custom silicon systems, we plan to add to Astera during this pullback.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
The below chart shows the areas of accumulation and distribution for the Bitcoin bull market that started in late 2022. We lean heavily into technical analysis to accomplish the below feat, which naturally makes us contrarians when it comes to crypto. We were exceedingly bullish in Bitcoin, buying most dips in early 2023 – October 2024. When the herd finally started getting bullish on Bitcoin due to various narratives, that’s when we shift into a distribution mode, trading the final swings in Bitcoin’s bull run.
For those that have been with us during this period, you’ll remember how we took Bitcoin from a 10% position down to a 1% position between April – December 2025. We locked in gains between $85,000 – $113,000, making the multi-year bull run in Bitcoin one of our top actively managed positions in our firm’s history.
Meta (META)
Meta is a stock that we have been closely tracking due to its ability to easily integrate AI across its ad platform for an uplift in advertiser ROI. The company is sitting on a treasure trove of contextually rich data from billions of social media users. More impressively, Meta is currently number two in AI revenue despite spending less on capex than its counterparts.
Like many of the stocks we wanted to own in 2025, due to perceived market risk, we patiently waited for volatility to show up. We built a 7% position with two buys on April 7th at $488.97, and again on April 21st at $482.48. Meta’s low for the year was $478.72.
When it became obvious that the market was starting to penalize hyperscalers for their large Capex spend, we decided to take gains in Meta, locking in a combined 51% realized gain before the stock dropped. We’ve since begun rebuilding a new position at lower prices.
Verified Performance
Our performance is reviewed and verified by an independent accounting firm. Under the terms of our engagement, the firm’s engagement letter is not to be publicly distributed. In accordance with standard practices, the engagement letter and full performance review are made available exclusively to paying members and are hosted behind our paywall.
The I/O Fund retains ownership of the verified performance results and does not authorize the redistribution of the confidential engagement letter or performance review outside of the member area. While we may reference verified performance figures publicly, access to the underlying engagement documentation is limited to our clients in accordance with our agreement with the accounting firm.
Why Real-Time Trade Alerts Matter
Real-time trade alerts are sent to members the moment we decide to buy, sell, trim, or add to a position. That may sound straightforward, but in practice, it’s one of the most demanding ways to manage a portfolio.
Every decision is recorded the moment it’s made. That level of transparency places meaningful pressure on the portfolio team, which is exactly the point. It’s the same standard registered fund managers are held to when they file trades, yet it’s rarely offered in retail investment research.
This accountability extends beyond trade alerts. Our analysts aren’t just responsible for identifying opportunities; they must also determine position sizing, support ongoing portfolio management, and adapt as conditions change. A recommendation doesn’t end at the buy, rather it continually evolves through adds, trims, and exits as the fundamentals, product story or technicals shift.
There’s a reason most research platforms avoid real-time alerts, active position management, and detailed transparency: the more granular the reporting, the higher the stakes. When decisions are logged instantly, there’s nowhere to hide.
Every portfolio team makes mistakes. The difference is that by making mistakes publicly, it has sharpened our decision-making and strengthened our discipline over time.
Risk Management Isn’t Optional
In the tech sector, risk management is just as important as stock selection. Hedging, including raising significant cash or reducing exposure, is psychologically difficult and often avoided. Markets tend to trend higher over time, and downside risk behaves very differently on the short side than it does on the long side.
While hedging decisions should always be reviewed with a financial advisor, many members use our positioning changes as clear risk-on and risk-off signals. From day one, we made a deliberate choice: we would not publish research without pairing it with real risk management.
Again, that decision isn’t common in individual investing, but we believe research sites should be held to the same standard as professionals.
Verified Returns and Accountability
One of the biggest gaps in retail investing is the lack of verified performance. Institutional investors don’t take claims at face value— they require proof. Hedge funds are required to report returns precisely because it reduces posturing and selective storytelling.
We apply that same mindset here. To date, the I/O Fund has invested over $210,000 into accountability and transparency for members since inception.
Early on, we used a forum-based system for trade alerts. By 2021, we transitioned to dedicated SMS and email software systems using Twilio and Mailchimp — tools designed to minimize outages and delays. This alone costs $30,000–$40,000 per year, depending on trading activity.
In addition, we engage an independent accounting firm in San Francisco to mathematically review and verify performance across both our equity and crypto accounts. Each audit takes several months and costs $4,500 to $5,500. To date, we’ve completed seven audits, totaling $32,500.
Conclusion:
Over the past year, we delivered 11 positions that outperformed the Nasdaq-100, continuing a multi-year trend of identifying winners early. Many of our biggest winners were built at prices below the January 1 opening levels, allowing us to realize returns that exceeded the stock’s annual performance. In addition, we drastically cut back our crypto positions to stave off losses starting in August, despite many crypto influencers calling for aggressive price targets.
This consistency helped extend the portfolio’s cumulative return to 326% since inception in May 2020, with annualized returns averaging 29.2% over that period. Across thousands of portfolio options, these results place us firmly among the top-performing investment strategies in the United States.
We’re deeply grateful for the trust each of you give us. We take the responsibility of providing our Members early, actionable research tools just as seriously as the pursuit of the upside. Thank you for your continued support and confidence. As we close out 2025, we’re fully focused on the work ahead, as we seek to deliver thoughtful, early research, disciplined execution, and clear risk management in the years to come.
Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.
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