Bitcoin
Here is the big picture. The data best fits with a very large degree ending diagonal pattern for the bull cycle that started in 2018. This means that each wave is a 3 wave pattern (A,B,C). If true, then we are in the 5th wave and still in the A wave.
This makes sense to me, and also lines up with equities – high in Jan/Feb, multi-month pullback into mid 2024 (B wave), blowoff into 2025 (C wave). I don't see equities giving a blowoff into 2025, so there will be a decoupling at some point. This lines up with the time factor chart below. We're looking at a 2 week chart, so each time factor tends to be more notable. There are 4 time factors clustering together right now and we are trending up into them. Now, note the huge cluster in June/July. If we see a top in the $50K region and then turn back down, this will be where we look for the B wave low.
This sounds great, and is a solid game plan. However, we have to account for alternative scenarios. If we instead just go vertical through $58,000, then we will invalidate the blue count and red count, and instead be in a direct move toward our target. This would constitute a breakout buy, as we would be in the mid-point of the larger trend higher. This would be the green count below. I would not take red seriously until we pullback from the $50K region in a 5 wave drop. This count suggests that we are still in a large degree bear cycle and topping. Not my primary.
Now, if we zoom in even closer, if we are heading to the $50K region, the 5th wave is an ending diagonal. The problem is that we could also be in an expanded flat correction too! Keep in mind that ETH is not confirming this breakout. So, as long as we stay below $48,500, this is a possibility (orange count). If we do drop in an expanded flat, we'll go below $44,500 in a 5 wave pattern. If so, we'll go heavy in the high $30,000 range.
So, there is a lot going on! My base case is a top soon, followed by a large pullback. If we get this, we'll stick with the plan in the blue count. If we go vertical, then we chase above $58,000.
Microsoft
We now have the 5th wave in. Keep in mind, this is the 5th wave of a 5th wave of a 5th wave, which started in 2009. That $370 level is the major floor. It's where the largest trade in MSFT's history printed. Big money either bought or sold, and considering the price patterns, it's likely a sell. You will know this when a drop below that level does not get defended.
Nvidia
We're in our long-term target zone, finally. This is the 5th wave, and based on what I'm seeing in the above charts, I don't see the green count playing out. However, this is a large first wave off the October 2022 low. This means a deep retrace will be the buying opportunity we have been patiently waiting for.
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