NuScale is the only NRC-approved SMR module developer, holding a significant first-mover advantage in the space. The startup has one potential project underway in Romania with its majority stakeholder Fluor and RoPower, and a 1.85 GW agreement with Standard Power to power two future data centers in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
NuScale remains confident in its growth prospects, doubling modules in production to 12 as it aims to secure a firm customer order in 2025. Unlike Oklo, NuScale is partnering with energy investment and development firm ENTRA1 to sell and deploy its modules, and rough estimates imply each GW scale plant could represent several billions in revenue.
Despite this enormous opportunity, risks remain.
Gigawatt-Scale Projects Promise Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunities
As we discussed in our free newsletter last week, Nuclear Power Emerging as a Clean AI Data Center Energy Source, AI data center electricity demand is forecast to surge over the next few years. Most estimates from industry groups and analysts forecast 70 GW to 80 GW in demand growth through 2030, with focus turning to nuclear to meet long-term baseload energy needs.
Though some researchers estimate that at least 85 to 90 GW of nuclear energy is needed to help meet rising data center demand, high costs and lengthy construction timelines inhibit new large-scale deployments. Advanced microreactors and small-modular reactors (SMRs) promise a quicker path to deployment, though they’re also likely to take a small share of this demand growth. This is because companies in the space such as Oklo and NuScale have yet to commercialize modules and subsequently ramp production.
Regardless, even capturing just a small share of this demand growth, such as 5 to 10 GW over the next decade, SMR startups could see significant multi-billion dollar revenue opportunities.
NuScale recently received NRC approval at the end of May to increase the output of its module from 50 MWe to 77 MWe, offering flexible deployment options of four (VOYGR-4), six (VOYGR-6) or 12 module (VOYGR-12) plant designs. NuScale’s SMRs produce up to 462 MWe in the six-module plant up to 924 MWe in the 12-module plant.
NuScale has not been upfront about module pricing, though its original 2018 estimate with UAMPS for a 600 MWe, 12-module plant was ~$4.2 billion, or ~$350 million per 50 MWe module, before rising to $6.2 billion for an uprated 720 MWe plant in 2023, or ~$515 million per module.
This suggests that a ~1 GW VOYGR-12 plant could be worth more than $6 billion, though these estimates are based off older figures which included surging raw material costs post-pandemic. A rough estimate based on these figures places NuScale’s 1.85 GW project with Standard Power at around $12.4 billion. These estimates also does not include future revenue opportunities related to plant construction, such as fuel supply, refueling services, parts procurement, training, testing and more.
A Note into Rising Costs – UAMPS and NuScale’s Terminated Agreement
It’s vital to touch on the revenue opportunity per GW here, as NuScale’s estimated module pricing stems from its previous engagement with UAMPS, which was expected to be the first commercial SMR in the US.
The two terminated the project in late 2023 due to a significant 120% increase in expected total costs. The project was initially estimated to cost $3 billion in 2015 for a 12-module 600 MWe plant, though this was later increased to $4.2 billion as NuScale upsized to a 720 MWe plant in 2018. By 2020, estimated costs had risen to $6.1 billion, and by 2023, the project’s Class 3 estimate was placed at nearly $9.3 billion for a downsized 6-module, 462 MWe design. This included owner’s costs, interest rate assumptions, construction, operating and maintenance costs, but excluded DOE cost-sharing payments.
Looking at costs per MWh of electricity generated or cost per kW shows why UAMPS and NuScale terminated the project. It was initially proposed with a targeted power cost of $55 per MWh, but was later raised slightly to $58 per MWh by 2021, per IEEFA.
Source: IEEFA IEEFA
However, by 2023, the targeted power price surged to $119 per MWh, or $89 per MWh including a $30 IRA subsidy. This was driven by a 75% increase in construction costs, including a 54% increase in fabricated steel plates, 106% increase in carbon steel piping, 25% increase in electrical equipment and 32% increase in copper wire and cable. It also made the project far more expensive than new combined-cycle gas plants, which are estimated to have power costs around $50 per MWh, undercutting the benefits of selecting SMRs for power.
On a per kW basis, the project cost had risen nearly 5x by the time of termination, given the increased construction costs and plant downsize. At the initial 12-module, 600 MWe design, cost per kW was placed at ~$5,000, but then decreased to $4,200 to $4,300 when NuScale upsized to the 720 MWe plant design. By 2023, the downsized design and increased costs had pushed cost per kW up 5x to ~$20,140.
The failed project demonstrated that SMR costs likely “will be much higher than has been acknowledged, and the prices of the power produced by those SMRs will be much more expensive,” which could weigh on commercial viability, per the IEEFA.
Live Build with RoPower Project and Customer Update
While the UAMPS termination was a bit of a blow to NuScale’s progress, it still has one live potential project with Romania’s RoPower. NuScale is working as a subcontractor to major stakeholder Fluor on its phase 2 front-end engineering and design (FEED) services contract for RoPower’s Doicesti SMR plant.
Fluor signed the phase 2 FEED contract in June 2024 with work expected to be completed by Q4 2025, with a possible extension to Q1 2026. NuScale’s primary deliverable as a subcontractor to Fluor is the Class 3 cost estimate by this fall. NuScale said it is in discussions to extend the project into the detailed design phase, which would enable a final investment decision application to be submitted to the Romanian government by Q1 or Q2 2026. The project is expected to use a six-module plant design for 462 MWe power output, with deployment expected to occur by 2030, assuming the project moves ahead.
RoPower is NuScale’s source of revenue and cash flow at the moment, driving more than $46 million in revenue over the last two quarters. Revenue for NuScale is expected to be flat to slightly up from Q1’s $13.2 million through the remainder of the contract’s duration.
NuScale also has an agreement with Standard Power to deliver up to 24 of its 77MWe modules (~1.85 GW) for future data center sites in Ohio and Pennsylvania, with Standard Power expecting operations to commence as soon as 2029, though this may be an aggressive timeline.
NuScale Aiming to have First Firm Order in 2025
Although it is progressing with RoPower ahead of the final investment decision, NuScale is still working to record its first firm, binding customer order, with management confident in achieving this sometime in 2025.
It’s critical that NuScale sign a firm deal this year to ensure it reaches commercialization by 2030, since it has approximately a five-year timeline from contract signing to commercial deployment. Should it not record a firm order this year, commercialization will likely be pushed towards 2031.
While it continues to progress on a firm order, management shared that this customer is likely to be a power plant operator, hinting that the offtaker (actual end customer buying the power) would probably be a tier 1 hyperscaler or AI developer:
“We talk about who the customer is and the possibility that one of our customers is a hyperscaler Tier 1 data center AI developer. And I think it's important to understand that our projects are complex. And really, the customer, in many cases, will be the developer who's developing the plant and purchasing the SMRs from NuScale. Supporting that idea will be a power purchase agreement and a buyer and a power user, which we anticipate would be a Tier 1 data center or AI developer.”
Yet, the lack of a firm customer order has led some analysts to shift to a more hesitant stance. NuScale’s shares declined double-digits as BTIG downgraded shares on June 25, stating that they are waiting “for the backlog to materialize and to get more clarity around project economics.”
ENTRA1 Partnership for Commercialization, Doosan for Manufacturing
NuScale is tapping different partners to aid in manufacturing and commercialization, signing an exclusive deal with ENTRA1 to help commercialize its modules and with South Korea’s Doosan for production.
Under its partnership with ENTRA1, NuScale will simply provide its SMR modules to ENTRA1 while ENTRA1 will develop, finance, own and operate power plants globally. This frees NuScale up from capital-intensive plant development, but also limits its involvement post-deployment. The two say that this structure offers flexibility for customers, where they can either assume full transfer of ownership of the plants from ENTRA1, serve as an operator, or simply buy the power under long-term power purchase agreements.
On the manufacturing side, NuScale is tapping Doosan for primary module production and BWXT Canada for module fabrication services. Doosan, which had invested a total of $104 million NuScale through 2019 to 2021, will produce and supply core SMR components for the RoPower and Standard Power projects, and likely any subsequent projects. Doosan began manufacturing components in 2023 for the now-terminated UAMPs project.
NuScale noted that it recently placed an order for six more modules to bring its total in production with Doosan up to 12, supporting approximately 1 GW of projects. Analysts asked about manufacturing capacity given that it is outsourced, wanting to know if NuScale could support concurrent larger-scale deployments by the early 2030s, such as two 12-module deployments.
Management explained that Doosan has capacity to produce around 20 modules annually, adding that they are unsure if they will be able to fulfill multiple orders at once in the first year. CFO Robert Hamady said that NuScale will put more money into the supply chain to boost capacity once it has a firm contract, and that the startup will be “in a great place if our biggest challenge is keeping up with orders.” Looking at Oklo’s backlog of 14.1 GW requiring 160+ modules, NuScale’s backlog in GW is likely to remain limited in scope and size given that Doosan’s annual capacity cannot support its 1.85 GW deal with Standard Power for 24 modules.
Diversified Revenue Opportunities
Unlike Oklo’s build, own and operate approach, NuScale’s approach provides it with longer-term revenue and cash flow streams, that commence as early as five years before commercial operations begin.
Below is a diagram of different revenue streams and timing of recognition, up until commercial operations commence for the module and afterwards.
Source: NuScale NuScale
In the first phase prior to deployment, NuScale’s initial revenue streams will stem from licensing and support, such as its current scope of work with RoPower. This then transitions into training, inspection and testing leading up to two years prior to the module deployment. At and after deployment, NuScale’s revenue opportunities then shift to auxiliary needs including fuel supply, engineering management, parts and procurement and more.
Management explained on Q1’s call that this approach will provide them with immediate revenue and cash flow upon signing a firm contract:
“We believe that once we sign a contract with a major customer, we will receive payments in relation to the modules. We'll receive positive cash flow. … In relation to the sale of the modules, we expect somewhere around 25% of cost of modules to come in the first year and for NuScale to be cash flow positive from that perspective. [A firm contract] will be pivotal in terms of pushing our balance sheet and our cash flow towards a cash flow positive position.”
This is why NuScale is emphasizing a firm contract and customer order by the end of 2025, and why they doubled modules in production to 12 despite having an order. Signing a firm contract will bring immediate revenue and cash flow to slow cash burn, while simultaneously providing a much larger long-term revenue stream.
First to Receive NRC Approval & Regulatory Update
In the SMR field, NuScale believes it holds a significant first-mover advantage as the first and only firm to have received standard design certification from the NRC for its modules. NuScale’s modules are powered by proven light-water reactor tech, essentially a micro-sized version of a conventional large-scale reactor.
NuScale recently received NRC approval for its 77 MWe US460 design, which was based in part off its 2023 NRC certified US600 50MWe design. The approval means that the 77 MWe design meets rigorous safety standards and is now approved for use in the US without further review, valid for 15 years. The design can also be referenced by developers and other companies in COLA or construction permits.
Despite not commenting much on the regulatory side in Q1, management made an effort to point out how much of a first mover advantage they believe they hold after the recent second NRC approval. CEO John Hopkins said that competing LWR reactors are “still in what we call the demonstration phase, which means they still require a minimum of 4 years of operation before securing U.S. Nuclear Regulatory approval for commercial deployment.”
However, even with NuScale’s NRC approval, customers still have to proceed with site-specific COLAs for each plant they plan to build, which lengthens deployment timelines with the extra regulatory steps.
Financials – Revenue Ramp Expected in 2026, 2027, Cash Runway Quickly Improved
Though NuScale’s first twelve SMR modules are in production, it does not anticipate commercial deployment with its first project and only customer, RoPower, until 2030. Despite this, revenue is expected to begin ramping through 2026 and 2027 due to NuScale’s multiple revenue streams prior to deployment.
Revenue Ramp Projected for FY26
Revenue is currently tied to consulting and front-end engineering and design (FEED) services for NuScale and Fluor’s partnership with RoPower. NuScale reported $34.2 million in revenue in Q4 and $13.4 million in Q1. Q4’s print was notably higher due to one-time tech licensing payments received in conjunction with RoPower.
Through Q4, NuScale is expected to see revenue hover in the low-teens each quarter, ranging from $11.9 million in Q2 to $14 million in Q4.
For FY25, NuScale’s revenue is estimated to be $50.4 million, for 36.1% YoY growth, with the low growth rate being impacted by Q4’s $34.2 million print. Beyond FY25, NuScale is expected to see revenue begin to ramp rapidly. FY26 revenue is expected to increase 226% YoY to $164.4 million before slowing to 120% YoY to $361.8 million in FY27.
Margins
Margins are quite lumpy given the scope of work under the RoPower project, with gross margin fluctuating quite significantly. It’s also not a clear sign of the future business once SMRs are deployed and ramp.
Gross margin had soared to 91.1% in Q4 on the substantial increase in revenue related to the RoPower projected, but has since dropped to 52.4% in Q1. Gross margin had been as low as 12.1% in Q2 2024.
Operating margin remains deeply red considering revenue streams are still minimal. Operating margin was (34.6%) in Q4, but reversed back to (261.4%) as of Q1. With operating expenses hovering in the low-$40 million range with revenue in the low-teens, operating margin is likely to remain >(200%) through FY25.
However, NuScale is realizing meaningful cost reductions, noting in Q1 that it has lowered its average quarterly operating expenses by ~$28 million, from $69.9 million in 2023 to $42.1 million on a TTM basis. NuScale says this is generating annualized savings of $111.2 million.
This improvement is visible when looking at operating losses on an annual basis. FY23 operating loss was ($275.6) million, though NuScale cut that in half in FY24 to just ($138.7) million.
EPS
NuScale is not expected to break even until 2030, with losses accumulating until then. Quarterly adjusted EPS was ($0.11) in Q1 and is expected to remain flat at that level for at least the next four quarters. Q4’s adjusted EPS of ($0.77) was negatively impacted by the $227.7 million redemption of its warrants.
Cash Flows, Cash Burn and Liquidity
The Q4 warrant redemption significantly bolstered NuScale’s balance sheet, helping propel it to more than half a billion in cash and equivalents. This combines with improvements in cash burn to provide the company with a much longer cash runway.
As a result of its increasing balance sheet and decreasing cash burn rate over the last few quarters, NuScale has substantially lengthened its cash runway. As of Q1, NuScale had $521.4 million in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet. This major improvement from $156.6 million in Q3 (less than its annual burn rate) was due to the warrant redemption and 4.5 million ATM offering, which provided $227.7 million and $102.4 million in proceeds respectively.
In terms of cash runway, these actions the last two quarters increased NuScale’s runway by nearly 18 quarters. As of Q2, NuScale’s cash runway was less than one year, but now as of Q1, NuScale has extended this runway to more than 21 quarters. The company said in Q1 that the liquidity improvement was due to financing activities as well as reduced operating expenses and payments from the FEED 2 contract.
CFO Robert Hamady offered some color on liquidity and cash burn in Q1’s analyst Q&A:
“So if I look at just like an OpEx cash burn, it's still in that range, let's say, $40 million to $45 million a quarter. We'll probably push it up a little bit as we invest in our supply chain. That's something that we're actively doing now because we anticipate a near-term project, and we're focused on supply chain manufacturing and delivery dates. …
We think we have 2 years or so of operating runway, just based on where we are today, just based on what cash we have and what we bring in, what we spend. And that will change only when we get a project, and I think it will change in a positive way for the company and for our liquidity position.”
He further clarified later that “the $40 million to $45 million vis-a-vis $500-plus million worth of cash would seem to instigate an idea of greater than 2 years' runway, especially when you add some revenue there, right, because it lowers the burn rate. But I'd like to keep 2 years runway.”
This comment implies that NuScale has a longer cash runway, if it does dwindle to the point that this runway encroaches on two years or shrinks to less than two years, capital raises are likely in the picture.
Customer Concentration Risk
NuScale is exposed to significant customer concentration risk, with RoPower its only current customer and primary source of revenue. NuScale says that it has “robust business development activity including advancements with prospective data center/artificial intelligence (AI) customers,” though it has received no firm orders yet.
Should RoPower determine not to proceed with the plant, NuScale could witness substantial fallout given that this is its first commercial project and proof of SMR market fit. This could translate into several billions of lost revenue along with more questions about a path to break-even and commercial viability of its modules.
NuScale also signed an agreement with Standard Power in 2023 to provide 24 of its 77 MWe reactors, or up to 1.85 GW, to power two future data center sites in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Standard Power expects to be operational by 2029, and the 77 MWe design just received NRC approval at the end of May 2025, paving the way for this project to proceed.
Valuation
Similar to Oklo, the timing of NuScale’s deployments and revenue ramp open the door to some execution risk. However, it is valued at a nearly 40% discount to Oklo at $4.8 billion with revenue expected to ramp much sooner.
Based on current forecasts, NuScale is valued at approximately 29.3x FY26 revenue with 226% YoY growth expected, and then 13.3x FY27 revenue with triple-digit growth again.
On a more direct comparison to Oklo on FY30 revenue, NuScale trades at just a fraction of its rival, at 3.5x expected revenue of $1.13 billion versus Oklo at 30x revenue of $257 million. This gap implies a significant time-to-market premium for Oklo, given NuScale is expected to see revenue ramp years earlier.
Conclusion
Despite its first-mover advantage with NRC approval and its first modules in production, NuScale lacks the one piece needed for its commercialization pathway to materialize – a firm customer order. These orders are more likely to come in as Big Tech scales towards Blackwell Ultra or Nvidia’s upcoming Rubin generation due to the sheer increase in power in these rack-level systems.
NuScale is expected to see revenue ramp rather quickly over the next two years with triple-digit growth projected, though capacity limits revenue upside at just 20 modules per year. As is the case with Oklo, this is a high-risk, speculative play on nuclear adoption for data center power demand. Any slight delays in NuScale’s commercialization or ramp given its limited capacity and lack of a firm order yet could significantly push back this growth curve, and thus delay profitability and cash flow growth.
Damien Robbins, Equity Analyst at I/O Fund contributed to this analysis.
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