Oklo is an advanced nuclear microreactor startup primarily targeting data center customers with long-term power needs, though it is currently pre-revenue and pre-deployment. Its standout 12 GW master power agreement with Switch is one of the largest commercial nuclear power deals ever signed, eclipsing recent Big Tech power purchase agreements (PPAs) in the 1-2 GW range. PPAs are long-term agreements where companies will purchase electricity from a provider for a predetermined price.
Oklo is aiming to start its first plant operations as soon as late 2027, and as a result its revenue ramp is likely still geared towards the early 2030s. Backed by the 12 GW deal, Oklo’s pipeline could be worth tens of billions in revenue at its current size, supporting a long-term revenue ramp. However, cash burn is likely to increase significantly as commercialization nears, and break-even remains far in the future, due to its build-own-operate business model.
Due to the rare, high demand for energy that is incoming, when the market will move on nuclear stocks is unclear as emotions could run high and drive momentum long before revenue materializes. Therefore, we thought it’d be well-worth our time to look at a few of the most popular nuclear stocks.
Gigawatt-Scale Projects Promise Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunities
As we discussed in our free newsletter last week, Nuclear Power Emerging as a Clean AI Data Center Energy Source, AI data center electricity demand is forecasted to surge over the next few years. Most estimates from industry groups and analysts forecast 70 GW to 80 GW in demand growth through 2030, with focus turning to nuclear to meet long-term baseload energy needs.
Though some researchers estimate that at least 85 to 90 GW of nuclear energy is needed to help meet rising data center demand, high costs and lengthy construction timelines inhibit new large-scale deployments. Advanced microreactors and small-modular reactors (SMRs) promise a quicker path to deployment, but they’re likely to only take a small share of this demand growth, as companies in the space, such as Oklo and NuScale, have yet to commercialize modules and subsequently ramp production. Advanced microreactors tend to be ultra-compact nuclear reactors generally in the 1 MW to 50 MW range, designed to be modular and transportable for use in such as in off-grid or remote areas. SMRs are typically larger in size at 50 MW to 300 MW per module, helping support larger-scale or grid-based deployments while remaining modular in nature and readily deployable.
Regardless, even capturing just a small share of this demand growth, such as 5 to 10 GW over the next decade, SMR startups could see significant multi-billion dollar revenue opportunities.
Oklo’s Aurora powerhouse provides customers with flexibility from phased deployment options and multiple power configurations, from 15 MWe to 50MWe and now up to 75 MWe.
- In a 12-module power plant design, the 75 MWe module offers up to 900 MWe (0.9 GW) capacity.
- Oklo is looking to cap output per module in a “sweet spot” of 60-72 MWe, meaning actual output is likely to range from 720 MWe to 864 MWe (0.72 to 0.86 GW).
This is more than enough to power hyperscale data centers with hundreds of thousands of GPUs – the first 200 MW phase of OpenAI’s Stargate data center could house 100,000 of Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs, meaning a one GW scale could theoretically support nearly half a million GPUs.
Because Oklo is building, maintaining ownership, and operating the plants itself, instead of selling the modules to developers, revenue will stem primarily from long-term power purchase agreements. This provides some future visibility via recurring revenue streams once operations commence.
Amazon’s recent 1.92 GW deal with Talen offers a bit of insight into the revenue opportunities that lie ahead for Oklo.
- Amazon signed a 17-year deal worth ~$18 billion in revenue to Talen over the deal lifetime.
- Talen is set to deliver 0.84 to 1.2 GW by 2029 and scale up to 1.68 to 1.92 GW by 2032.
- Rough back-of-napkin math places each GW at nearly $9 billion in lifetime revenue, or ~$500 million annually on average.
In Oklo’s case, running off these numbers places its non-binding 12 GW agreement with Switch at up to $108 billion in lifetime revenue in a 20-year PPA structure. At maximum, it’s possible that this deal could result in $6 billion in annual revenue for Oklo, though that is unlikely to be seen until the final years of the deal, or beyond 2040.
Commercialization Timeline
Oklo’s Aurora powerhouse is built on proven liquid-metal-cooled reactor tech derived from the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) and the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II), supported by more than 400 reactor-years of experience. The fast reactor requires refueling approximately every 10 years, versus every two years for a module such as NuScale’s VOYGR. Oklo is planning to commence its first plant operations as soon as late 2027 to early 2028, making key progress on the regulatory front to achieve this goal.
Oklo has partnered with RPower on a phased gas and nuclear deployment strategy to help bridge the gap until it reaches full-scale commercialization. Under the partnership, RPower will deploy natural gas generators for select projects until Oklo’s Aurora plants come online, after which the gas generators will serve as backup. The two say that the gas generators are deployable within 24 months, meeting more immediate-term data center demand needs, given the reactors are more than 24 months away.
Fueling is a limiting factor for Oklo’s upcoming ramp, as it has only secured 5 mega tons of fuel from a 2019 DOE award, enough for the initial load at its first plant at the Idaho National Laboratory. Oklo also signed an MOU with Centrus in 2023 for high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which should help it support future commercial projects. The company is working to develop an in-house fuel recycling program to support its plants, once operational, though this will be a costly endeavor. CEO Jacob DeWitte has expressed concerns about fuel supply, saying he worries “about the bridge between now and the early 2030s,” which could hinder its ability to ramp if it cannot procure or produce enough fuel.
Oklo Boasts 14.1 GW Pipeline
Oklo’s pipeline is significantly concentrated with data center designer Switch, with whom it signed a 20-year, 12 GW non-binding master power agreement to provide power to multiple data center facilities through 2044. Oklo also has a few other deals in its pipeline:
• Signed a letter of intent (LOI) with data center builder Equinix for 0.5 GW of power, including a $25 million pre-payment clause.
• Signed a LOI for 0.1 GW of power with Prometheus Hyperscale.
• Signed a LOI for 0.05 GW of power with Diamondback Energy.
Fulfilling this pipeline requires significant production capacity. Switch’s deal alone would require at least 160 75 MWe modules, while the entire current pipeline would require 188 75MWe modules, or up to 200-plus if customers select some 50 MWe modules.
Putting this in perspective, at ~$220 million per 75 MWe module (on a rough estimate), Oklo’s pipeline could be worth at least $35 billion, though this is likely to be spread over the course of the next 10 to 15 years.
Oklo Provides Little Update on New Customer Progress
Oklo’s pipeline remained flat QoQ at 14.1 GW, with no new customer engagement announced after substantial growth in 2024. Despite this, Oklo provided a short comment on customer engagements, saying they remain in active discussions especially with customers in the data center space.
Management explained that they are exchanging term sheets and discussing commercial terms related to PPAs, as well as structuring deals to possibly “include some form of investment in Oklo, either kind of a prepayment like what Equinix did, or potentially some sort of like asset level investment.”
High Capex Requirements
Because of the build-own-operate model Oklo is pursuing, capex requirements to build out enough modules to fulfill its current pipeline are extremely high. Oklo has noted that it will aim to secure outside funding in DOE loans, tax equity and other financing.
Oklo’s 15 MWe design is estimated to cost $70 million, while the 50 MWe could cost up to $145 million, per executives. The company has not disclosed costs for the 75 MWe design, but the module could cost up to $220 million based on pricing for the 50 MWe at almost $3 million per MWe. Oklo expects lower costs for future plants due to economies of scale.
Oklo is targeting up to one-gigawatt plants in 12-module designs, and these costs suggest each GW plant could cost billions. For a ~0.9 GW plant consisting entirely of 75 MWe modules, this would cost more than $2.6 billion at ~$220 million per module. A 1.2 GW plant consisting of 24 50 MWe modules could cost up to $3.5 billion. This also does not include future opportunities Oklo is working on such as its fuel foundry and recycling business — management has said recycling will require more capex than the fuel foundry, without putting a specific number on either.
Oklo has explained previously that they do not expect to fund every project 100% in full on their own. Last year, management stated that “over time, we expect to utilize Oklo's equity in the form of cash on the balance sheet to finance anywhere from 25% to 35% of our projects with the remaining 65% to 75% being financed potentially through a mix of budget financing, tax equity structures and the DOE's loan program office.” This could significantly lengthen Oklo’s cash runway and lessen shareholder dilution, though it will still likely need more cash.
For its entire backlog, capex requirements could be as high as $35 billion, or ~50x its current cash balance. Assuming Oklo funds 30% of this backlog on its own, it would still require up to $10 billion in cash, which may necessitate immense capital raises or revenue pre-payments from long-term PPAs to help fund future builds.
Regulatory Progress Continues
Much of Q1’s earnings call Q&A was centered around regulatory progress, primarily updates to Oklo’s COLA and its fuel recycling ambitions.
Oklo is pursuing a custom combined license application (COLA) process, and it plans to submit the COLA to the NRC this year. Oklo’s COLA covers all of the design, construction and operation of its first commercial plant. Unlike other regulatory pathways, Oklo says the COLA provides a much faster review time, between 24-36 months, compared to ~48-72+ months for other developers.
Source: Oklo 2024 Shareholder Letter
For subsequent deployments, Oklo notes that the S-COLA application could range between six to 18 months, with the company noting that timing will likely be determined by on-site specifics. Analysts questioned the timeline given the recent design upgrade to 75MWe, and how this process would work if customers want a different size.
CEO Jacob DeWitte said that “pretty much everything we're really doing is at a 75 MWe size range. That kind of is the generalized design. And then, if we flex down from that, it's just because there's a customer need or specific need to do so. … So, really just think of it as a kind of a consolidated single platform that we build off of from the licensing side.”
He further clarified that if a customer wants a 60 MWe plant, it would be the exact same design, the exact same plant, with Oklo simply “underrating it and running it at a lower power level.” This smooths out the regulatory process by keeping all designs under the same licensing while still providing flexibility in deployments.
Executives also commented on the regulatory process for its fuel foundry, given that it is expected to support its ramp phase via fuel recycling and production. They said that they expect a full application review to take between 24 to 30 months, potentially up to 36 months depending on the amount of infrastructure needed. Bringing this fuel foundry facility online as near to the ramp as possible is critical given that fuel is the primary limitation to scaling deployment and fulfilling its pipeline.
Financials – Revenue Ramp Years Away, Long Road to Breakeven
As a pre-revenue startup still firmly in its R&D phase, with no commercial deployments expected until 2027, Oklo’s financials are focused primarily on liquidity. This is especially important given that 2021’s SPAC frenzy failed to finance numerous startups in similar capital-intensive industries such as EVs, where cash runways were not long enough to support a viable path to market.
Revenue Estimates
Oklo is expected to remain pre-revenue from its reactor business until at least 2027 to 2028, though it is expecting some potential revenue as early as 2026 from its recent acquisition of Atomic Alchemy from radioisotope sales.
Analysts currently forecast Oklo to generate no revenue in 2025 and 2026, with just $13.3 million expected in 2027. Further out, analysts are expecting a rapid ramp in revenue, projecting 140% to 193% YoY growth each year through 2031. These forecasts assume that Oklo reaches commercialization and begins to ramp customer projects and deployments accordingly, with no delays or headwinds. Given the long-term duration and potential for deployment timelines to shift, it’s important to treat these estimates with a high degree of caution.
Oklo is currently planning to bring its first Aurora powerhouse online in late 2027 to 2028, with initial revenue streams limited in size. Since its strategy entails operating the reactors as a power plant and selling power directly to customers via 20-year to 40-year PPAs, it will take time for revenue to scale as energy output scales.
Additionally, Oklo provided a short update on Atomic Alchemy and initial growth prospects in Q1, after it closed the acquisition in February 2025 in a $25 million, all-stock transaction. Oklo expects Atomic Alchemy to have a minimal impact on operating expenses in 2025, planning to only make some small investments (less than $500K) in lab equipment to support a first radioisotope demonstration project this year. Oklo says that it is expecting potential first revenues from the demo project as early as Q1 to mid-year 2026. This builds into the second project, a commercial four-reactor Versatile Isotope Production Reactor (VIPR) facility expected to begin operating in 2028.
Operating, Net Loss and EPS
Oklo reported an operating loss of ($17.9) million in Q1, widening from a ($7.4) million operating loss in the year ago quarter. R&D expenses rose more than 114% YoY to nearly ($7.9) million, driven by increased payroll from a higher R&D employee headcount. G&A expenses were ~($10.0) million, up 170% YoY primarily from increased headcount, SBC and other costs.
Net loss for Q1 was ($9.8) million, improving by ~59% YoY from ($24.1) million in the year ago quarter. The disconnect between operating and net loss was due to $3.7 million in interest income earned on cash in the quarter and a $4.4 million income tax benefit.
This corresponds to a ($0.07) loss per share in Q1, ahead of the ($0.10) consensus estimate. EPS is expected to widen slightly throughout the rest of the year as Oklo begins to ramp up spending.
Oklo is far from reaching its breakeven point, given that it still must progress with initial R&D to reach a commercialization point, and work to scale its business thereafter. This will require significant investments and spending over the next few years, especially considering the construction and capex costs discussed previously.
Analysts expect Oklo to reach breakeven in late 2029 to 2030, though like its revenue forecast, this must be taken with high caution. Any delays in ramping, a slower ramp trajectory, or loss of customers could easily prolong the path to breakeven given the high construction and operating costs per each powerhouse.
Cash Burn and Liquidity Profile
Oklo has a solid liquidity profile currently, with a rather lengthy cash runway based on current burn rates. However, costs are likely to ramp up as Oklo nears commercialization in 2027 to 2028, placing the emphasis on further funding needs.
Oklo stated that its Q1 cash burn rate remained on track with its expectations, with $12.2 million in cash used in operating activities. This corresponds to an annualized cash burn rate of ~$49 million.
For FY25, Oklo is forecasting $65 to $80 million in cash used in operating activities, up from $38.4 million in FY24. This forecast suggests quarterly cash burn and thus annualized burn rate will accelerate into year end, given the lower spend in Q1.
As of Q1, Oklo reported $260.7 million in cash and marketable securities, with $90 million of that in cash. Based on Q1’s cash burn rate, this implies a cash runway of ~21.3 quarters. However, Oklo recently closed a $440.6 million share offering in mid-June, bringing its cash balance to $701.3 million, excluding cash spent in Q2. This significantly boosts Oklo’s cash runway, likely to >35 quarters as of Q2.
Another way to view Oklo’s liquidity profile is to compare cash to expected losses per share until breakeven. Current analyst estimates point to cumulative losses of ($2.24) per share at the midpoint, while the low end points to ($3.01) at midpoint. The recent share sale will likely boost cash per share to ~$4.80, suggesting that Oklo’s liquidity profile remains healthy and should support its path to initial commercialization. However, future dilution and capital raises cannot be written off.
Quick Note on Cash Flow Sensitivity
Given that Oklo is a SPAC combination, it’s important to touch upon some of the financial projections displayed during the time of its merger, as other post-SPACs in capital-intensive industry, most notably Lucid Motors, failed to reach these targets.
Below is the cash flow sensitivity forecast Oklo provided at its Investor Day in February 2024.
Source: Oklo
Based on these projections, Oklo is forecasting $8 million in cash flow per 15 MWe module at small scale, rising ~5% to $8.4M per module at a much larger 125 deployment scale. This projects out to an 11-12% cash flow margin per module.
For the 50 MWe, Oklo projected much higher margins, at $27 million per module, remaining here regardless of scale. Based on expected costs of ~$145 million, this represents an ~18.6% cash flow margin. Uprating to the 75 MWe design likely allows Oklo to better meet customer needs as data centers scale beyond 500 MW, while also providing more attractive unit economics on a cash flow basis.
However, the main caution here is that these cash flow targets are likely to be far in the future. The $750 million cash flow projection assumes 45 modules deployed, which could take the better part of the next decade to reach given its ramp may not occur until 2030. This also plays into Oklo’s valuation – working with the projections given, investors are paying more than 10x that $750 million cash flow today, many years before Oklo even reaches that level.
Valuation Presents High Execution Risk
Given the timing of Oklo’s revenue ramp with a majority of growth concentrated beyond 2030, Oklo’s $7.8 billion valuation opens the door to a high level of execution risk. Any slight delays in commercialization or ramping could significantly push back this growth curve, and thus delay profitability and cash flow growth.
For example, Oklo was aiming to have its INL plant reach commercial operation as soon as 2026 as of last year, but now that timeline has been pushed back to 2027 to early 2028. Any further delays present a real risk to growth by delaying its ramp.
Based on current analyst estimates, Oklo is valued at more than 30x FY30 revenue, and this assumes it reaches commercialization on time, successfully ramps production, and records three consecutive years of >140% YoY revenue growth. This valuation does not include any potential dilution, and the forecast does not consider potential limiting factors such as fuel supply, raw material costs, or customer preference shifting to immediate-term power solutions.
Conclusion
Oklo is a speculative, high risk play on nuclear’s resurgence and role in serving surging AI data center power demand. Analysts are forecasting multiple consecutive years of triple-digit revenue growth backed by a massive demand pipeline, but its valuation at >30x FY30 revenue is a hard pill to swallow as it embeds a flawless execution and ramp curve.
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Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.
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